Launceston hosts a 7 race program this Wednesday night with the rail moving all the way back to the True position and firm ground expected. Race 6 sees a very competitive field of stayers do battle with many of the main chances having finished together in Hobart, while the last race has a small but quality field with good sprinter Naadam dropping in grade to clash with last-start winner Love Magic.

Race 1 – 18:40 Southern Cross Austereo 0-62 Hcp (1400 METRES)

Speed Map

Dubbo and Turtles Nest look most likely to push for the front with potentially Little Elsa going forward from her wide draw. Go For It and Kelly’s Diva can be handy with Sentimental Dream and the Trinder newcomer One Way Ticket potentially kicking up inside. Expecting a genuine tempo.

Major Players

6. Sentimental Dream: Fought on gamely over this course two starts back when caught wide throughout before relishing a suck run back on the inside last time to flash home over 1200m and score a convincing win. Up to 1400m now doesn’t look to be an issue and he draws inside again for a similar run. Will need luck getting through the field but only has to repeat the dose to take a power of beating again.

7. Turtles Nest: Was very good over this trip last time in Hobart to stick on for 2nd behind Tough Missile despite racing wide on speed from an outside draw. Has proven himself over this trip of late but will again be working forward from a wide barrier in this. If he has luck getting across his form is as strong as any of these but finding a spot on speed will be crucial.

9. Dubbo: Appreciated the drop back to this trip and the ability to control the tempo last time to score a strong win in C1 grade. Was aided by a rail bias there but previous run over a mile when 3rd behind Datuk Zadragon shows she is an improving mare. Had every chance last time so not sure she will be any value in this but should find a good spot on speed and has each way claims.

1. Go For It: Was caught three wide here a fortnight ago over 1600m so his run can be forgiven. Also had excuses at his second-last run in Hobart but two runs prior over this course both resulted in wins in easier grade. Tricky gate so not sure where he ends up and has been up a while now but if he gets the right run and produces his best he is a knockout chance.

4. Flying Geepee: Stepped up to the mile last time and was a bit unlucky when 6th beaten less than a length by Welcome Invader. Best form is at this shorter trip and he won over this course three starts ago when given the perfect run behind the speed. Wide gate here is a major obstacle but if Maskiell can work some magic he can win.

Next best 5. Jupiter’s Moon (improved to win last time over this course at big odds, bit more depth here but has always shown ability) and 2. One Way Ticket (stayer having first run for Adam Trinder, respect any positive market moves).

Verdict

Sentimental Dream (6) only has to go on from his last win to be very hard to beat again. Turtles Nest (7) appeals as a value runner going forward off a tough effort last time.

Staking Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Sentimental Dream for 4 Units

 BACK (WIN) – Turtles Nest for 2 Units

Race 2 – 19:15 Kevin Sharkie Maiden (1400 METRES)

Speed Map

Speed comes from wider out here in Medard and potentially La Superba and Pinkeyes Pride. Kent Street shouldn’t be too far away and Ivoryman can settle closer than last time. Those in the first half should get their chance.

Major Players

1. Ivoryman: Was well supported to run favourite at his first Tasmanian run on Launceston Cup day but had to do a lot of work after drifting back from his wide gate and that effort told on him late. Three week break looks ideal off that run and draws much better here so expect Newitt to settle closer to the speed. NSW form was good so improvement wouldn’t surprise and he looks hardest to beat.

2. Medard: Controlled the race in front at his first Tasmanian run but was nailed on the line by a good performance from Speedy Illusion. Might have a bit of competition for the front but should still find a good spot in the first couple and has placed twice at this longer trip in Victoria. Looks an obvious danger, especially if the track is favouring on-pacers.

5. Kent Street: Still looks to have plenty to learn but his past couple over this trip have been very game and he finished narrowly ahead of Ivoryman last time. Goes forward and makes his own luck so should find a nice spot from an inside gate and Maskiell looks a very suitable rider to get everything out of him. Hasn’t shown a turn of foot yet but sticks on and looks a genuine each way chance again.

4. Zipponet: Ran home strongly in the right part of the track over 1200m three starts back but was unable to make any impression from the back last time over this trip. Previous runs over this distance had been his best but he likes to relax back in the field which makes his task tough. Ran 2nd for McCoull earlier this prep so a positive riding change but his chances are vulnerable to those on speed being able to control the race.

Next best 7. La Superba (led and knocked up fresh over this trip, better for that run and might stick on for a place).

Verdict

Looks three chances here. Going with Ivoryman (1) who can improve off his first-up effort. Medard (2) has obvious claims while Kent Street (5) will be game on speed also.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Ivoryman for 4 units

Race 3 – 19:50 Tas Hotel & Club Supplies Maiden (1200 METRES)

Speed Map

Small field but could be good speed through Beenagem, Shackley’s Hill and Gee Gees Luckygirl should she jump cleanly. Nahla and Carmina should get a nice trail with Miss Eleanor probably going back from her wide draw.

Major Players

6. Carmina: Had good support when resuming and was very solid in running 3rd behind Street Tough after making her run out wider on the track. Extra 100m here suits and Newitt shouldn’t have too many issues getting across into a spot like the one-out one-back. Still has plenty of scope for improvement but last run was good enough for a race like this. Appeals as top pick.

2. Miss Eleanor: Is a well bred mare who has shown glimpses of ability but then ran home in excellent time first-up when 2nd behind Street Tough. May have been flattered by the pattern there however and now draws out wider so probably has to go back in the run again. Only run over this course was a close-up 4th behind Mandela Effect and Kathonious which reads pretty well for this. Tricky one to line up but if you believe her last run she is right in the mix.

1. Shackley’s Hill: Ran a game 2nd here behind Banca Bet two starts back before settling outside Medard last time over this course and fading in the run home. Maybe wasn’t suited by the sit-sprint tempo of that race and may appreciate a stronger tempo here. Needs to improve off that and potentially awkwardly drawn but if he gets across he can be in the mix on his best form.

4. Sh’bourne Star: Resumes here with a narrow trial win under her belt in plain time. Showed some ability through her first prep, including a good debut 3rd behind Mister Songman and Miss Smith on wet ground. Generally gets back in her races but first try in winkers may sharpen her up a bit fresh. Has been in the market at every run so no surprise if she has improved off her break. Respect any positive betting support.

3. Nahla: Has been freshened up since a forgivable run behind Berbent when lucky not to come down among the awful fall. Ran a solid 2nd here over 1400m three starts ago and draws inside for a gun run for Carr. Might want a little bit further than this but should find the right spot to get every chance.

Next best Beenagem (5) (ticking over fairly, back in trip and blinkers off may bring about some improvement again but needs to if she is to be in the finish).

Verdict

Carmina (6) ran well first-up and looks well placed here.

Staking Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Carmina for 8 units

Race 4 – 20:25 Brooklyn Park Benchmark 58 Hcp (1200 METRES)

Speed Map

Not much obvious speed here. Boart, Schillie Billie and Ruthless Lover are most likely to push forward and the lack of pace means Sunset Party and Osborne may settle close from their inside draws.

Major Players

1. Boart: Continues to race well and was a solid 2nd last time over this course but no match for the runaway winner Sentimental Dream. Stays at the top of the weights with 60.5kg again which is of some concern but draws ideally and can get a good run near the lead. Has performed in better grade than this and whoever beats him will probably be winning.

3. Osborne: Was much better second-up when flashing home from back in the field to grab 3rd behind stablemate Sentimental Dream. Wasn’t far behind Boart there and draws inside to give him a nice smother. Should be just about ready now third-up and looks an obvious danger.

5. Ruthless Lover: Won nicely over this course two starts back in C1 grade before sticking on well in C3 company last time when caught wide throughout. This is arguably easier and can go forward to overcome a potentially tricky draw. Has only won 2 from 32 but in career best form and has genuine claims with luck in running.

2. Valerius: Is a talented galloper resuming and trialled a fortnight ago. Will want further this prep but first-up run last time in over 1150m was very good when a close 3rd behind Overplay and Zero Point. Will get back and need luck but if the market says he is ready to go he has a knockout chance.

9. Sunset Party: Has been racing well over slightly longer and ran a solid 3rd behind Dubbo last time in C1 grade when enjoying the right run behind the leader. This is harder and not sure she is suited dropping back to 1200m at this stage of her prep. Inside draw gives her a chance to get a good trail again so has place claims but this grade probably tests over this trip.

Next best Schillie Billie (6) (not suited back in field last time, previous on speed effort was solid in a harder race, can be in the mix with the right run on speed).

Verdict

Hard to split Boart (1) and Osborne (3) from their latest clash and Ruthless Lover (5) is racing well enough to feature also. Maybe Osborne (3) is the one on the upward trajectory but a tricky race.

Staking Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Osborne for 1 unit

Race 5 – 21:00 Mud Restaurant Class 1 Hcp (1200 METRES)

Speed Map

Small field but most of these can take up a forward position. Breathtaking is the likely leader but has potential pressure drawn to her outside in Airlie Magic and Lads Curfew. Miss Scandilous probably takes a sit after racing well last time back in the field but could still decide to use the inside draw.

Major Players

6. Breathtaking: Has raced over this course twice this prep, winning her maiden by a big space first-up before being narrowly beaten in BM58 grade last time. This is arguably easier and Ruthless Lover and Geegees Cash Cow both ran well at their next start after filling the placings alongside her last time. Drawn to lead and still on the up. Looks very hard to beat.

8. Miss Scandilous: Went far too hard in front over 1400m two starts back before being ridden back last time and running on nicely out wide into 4th behind Sentimental Dream. Could get a great run from her inside draw and stays right down in the weights with Voorham’s claim. Has only won once in 24 goes but if she runs up to last time she has each way claims from the good draw.

4. Lads Curfew: Is up to this on his best form however his first-up run in Hobart was very plain. That has turned out to be a very good form race and he has won second-up in the past so maybe he is capable of sharp improvement. Maskiell sticks with him and while he is awkwardly drawn he is capable of pushing forward to get across. Can challenge if he produces his best.

Next best 7. George’s Gambol (no luck last time, first-up run was ok, fluker’s hope if they overdo it up front).

Verdict

Breathtaking (6) looks the winner but will be at Winx-style odds. Miss Scandilous (8) appeals as second pick so maybe look that way on a place basis but a very tricky betting race.

Staking Strategy

 BACK (PLACE) – Miss Scandilous for 1 unit

Race 6 – 21:30 Hesketh McCrimmon Insurance Benchmark 62 Hcp (2100 METRES)

Speed Map

Good sized field which should result in a decent tempo but there isn’t much proven early speed on paper. Biscay Barb, Mag Wheels and Kalalo look most likely to roll forward with Miss Artorius and Sudden Shock capable of pushing on from out wide to try and get across. If they find their spots early this could be run at a muddling clip.

Major Players

1. Biscay Barb: Has been up for a long time but finally got to 2100m this prep and ran a solid 4th behind Sentry Duty in Hobart despite over racing early. Should be better for the run over the trip and scored an impressive win at his only start over this course last season as a 3yo, albeit in C1 grade. Has plenty of weight but is very consistent and should take up a good spot on speed. Never far away and gets his chance here.

2. Wyuna: Is a smart staying mare who has raced well in good grade this prep, including a midfield finish in the Brighton Cup and a close 2nd in the Night Cup. Ran a narrow 2nd behind Sentry Duty last time in Hobart over 1200m, beating home many of her rivals here so this isn’t any harder. Inching up in the weights now and generally gets back in the run so for all of her good racing she has only won 2 of 15. Rarely runs a bad race and is one of the obvious chances again.

4. Kalalo: Has had a lot of racing since arriving in Tasmania but continues to race well and was only beaten 1.3L in Hobart behind Sentry Duty. Has won over this course in easier grade and should be able to roll forward from his wide gate to find a good spot. Generally thereabouts in this grade and is tough so looks to have genuine each way claims again at decent odds.

6. White Hawk: Is another who came through the Sentry Duty race in Hobart but he was a bit outpaced in the finish to be beaten a little over two lengths. He then backed up last Wednesday night into the St Leger, where he was ridden quieter over 2650m and ran a very solid 4th considering the big jump in grade. Drop in trip is unlikely to suit but may hold that form ridden cold again which would put him right in the mix.

7. Geegees Lillybet: Was solid enough over this course two starts ago behind It’s A Battle before running home well out wide in Hobart to finish 5th behind Sentry Duty. Is arguably a little fresher in her prep than a few of these and is working up to a win. Winning strike rate of 3 from 42 is an obvious concern and this isn’t easy but finished with the main hopes last time and has at least place claims again.

Next best 10. Mag Wheels (ticking over well in easier grade, this is tough but drawn for a gun run with no weight).

Verdict

Open race with many winning chances. Giving the top weight Biscay Barb (1) another chance with the 2100m run under his belt and the likelihood of a good run on speed.

Staking Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Biscay Barb for 3 units

Race 7 – 22:00 Balmoral on York Benchmark 72 Hcp (1200 METRES)

Speed Map

Apriano should have no problems controlling the front in the small field but Amaword was fired out last time and may do so again despite the sharp drop in trip. Naadam may end up in a tricky spot locked away behind the leader.

Major Players

2. Naadam: Gets a nice drop in class here after racing in open grade across the carnival. Wasn’t bad last time when wide all the way behind Chillout and ran a solid 2nd behind Teriki prior. Has won four races over this course and generally runs very well when back to this grade. In well with Voorham’s claim but potentially lands in a tricky spot trailing the leader. Loves firm ground and hard to beat with luck in running.

1. Love Magic: Was very good over this course second-up when a last stride win in BM64 grade. Has finished top two in all five runs over this course and has raced well up to this grade in the past. Gets a senior rider this time in Newitt but still has plenty of weight to carry. Should get a nice trail and looks an obvious chance again.

4. Apriano: Put together two impressive wins here in BM62 grade before finding the pace too fast in her past two runs in open grade. The way he dropped off last time is concerning but he looks set to control the tempo in front this time off the inside draw. Needs to improve but this looks much more suitable so should give a good sight in front.

Next best 7. Amaword (showed much more early speed last time over the mile, big ask to come back sharply in trip and needs to improve again).

Verdict

Small but tricky affair. Naadam (2) has the form but a potentially awkward spot in running. Love Magic (1) never runs a bad race and Apriano (4) gets his chance to control the front. Maybe lean Apriano (4) at the price on that basis.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Apriano for 1 unit


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