TASRacing: Launceston, Tuesday April 24 2018

Launceston hosts the last night meeting of the season this Tuesday night with a blockbuster 10 race card on Anzac Day Eve. Classy mare Toorak Affair looks for the winning hat-trick in race 8 but will have stiff opposition from proven stayers Sentry Duty and the frustratingly talented Matiano. Smart gelding Zatacla is also in search of three in a row in the last race of the night in a competitive BM80 with last start winner Liffeybeau sure to give him something to chase.


Race 1 – 17:15 Tasmanian Axeman’s Association Maiden (Div 1) (1220 METRES)

Speed Map

Medard looks the only leader here if the emergencies don’t get a start, with Gee Gees Luckygirl and Bernacee likely to annoy him for the front if they get a run. Caesar’s Quest may be able to go forward while Charaden and Miss Eleanor may make use of their good draws.

Major Players

2. Medard looks the leader here from a nice draw for Carr. Ran a good 2nd behind Speedy Illusion when able to lead over this course three starts back before below par runs over 1400m and on wet ground. Looks like getting every chance in front and can bounce back to the level he showed first-up in the state. Leading chance in a competitive race.

6. Miss Eleanor (6) is a well-bred mare who has steadily improved to the point she is now knocking on the door. Ran a very good 2nd three starts ago here behind Street Tough and rattled home into 3rd last time at Devonport after missing the start. Appears best ridden back so will need luck but drawn to do no work early and will be hard to hold out if she gets clear running.

1. Charaden comes through the same race as Miss Eleanor last time in Devonport when he ran home well for 4th but was passed by that mare late. Also looks better placed up to 1220m and drawn nicely to be thereabouts in running. Has shown ability and is open to plenty of improvement being early in his career. Strong each way claims.

9. Caesar’s Quest is a 2yo making his debut here after being scratched last week from Hobart. Trialled last week instead and looked good under a hold in plain time. Well drawn and looks to have the speed to put himself into the race. Big market watch.

7. Mystic Molly has been thereabouts in two runs back from a spell, finishing 4th on both occasions over this course. Battled away alright after being wide throughout last time and Newitt stays with her. Best runs have come over this course but has a potentially tricky draw here. Some chance.

Next best Royal Strategy (4) (debutant who trialled well at Devonport, might need some time but looks to have ability, monitor betting).

Verdict

Good race to start the night. Medard (2) might be hard to run down in front but Miss Eleanor (6) and Charaden (1) both ran well at Devonport and are on the up. Watch betting with Caesar’s Quest (9) and Royal Strategy (4).

Staking Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Miss Eleanor for 2 units. Charaden for 1 unit

 BACK (WIN) – Charaden for 1 unit

Race 2 – 17:45 Olympus Feeds Maiden (Div 2) (1220 METRES)

Speed Map

King Of Saigon looks the leader from wider out with the emergencies Gee Gees Luckygirl and Bernacee again likely to push forward if they get a run. Knitting, Eternal Moon, Isere and Pincent Van Gogh are all capable of going forward so the tempo should be genuine.

Major Players

5. Isere appreciated the drop back to 1000m last time at Devonport and stuck on well for 2nd behind Weight In Gold. Has raced well here previously although her best runs have been slightly shorter than this 1220m trip. Awkwardly drawn but doesn’t have a lot of speed drawn underneath her so may get across alright. Hardest to beat on form with a slight reservation on her running a strong trip.

6. Knitting has her first run in Tasmania after racing in Victoria for Archie Alexander. Has shown some ability on the provincial circuit and while her trial in Hobart looked quite plain, she now has her first run in blinkers. Has speed and a good draw so expect her to be near the lead and she has genuine winning claims on that basis.

3. Pincent Van Gogh has been thereabouts at both Tasmanian runs with excuses both times. Battled on last time after racing wide and should be suited getting up to this trip. Draws wide again which is a major concern given he likes to settle just behind the speed but if he can work across into a reasonable spot, his formlines behind Weight In Gold should stand up. Can win.

8. April Baby has her first Tasmanian run after racing in Victoria for Peter Morgan. Scratched from Hobart last month and then trialled well enough in Hobart a fortnight ago. Best from looks up to this but has a wide draw to contend with. Hard to line up so look for positive market support.

9. Eternal Moon is a nicely bred filly who makes her debut here. Has had a number of trials, including two this preparation, so suggest she will be fit enough to run a race. Well drawn and has shown speed so could enjoy a good run on speed. Another one to watch the market with but may get her chance if good enough.

Next best Miss La Di Da (13) (emergency but stable has success with ex-Nikki Burke runners so a definite watch if she gains a start).

Verdict

Isere (5) is the best of the exposed form but might be a risk at the 1220m. Knitting (6) is a big watch at her Tasmanian debut, as is April Baby (8) and Eternal Moon (9) to a lesser extent, while Pincent Van Gogh (3) has genuine claims if he can overcome his wide draw.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Knitting for 2 units

Race 3 – 19:50 DAVID MCKENNA HIBERNIAN F.C. 0 – 62 Rating (1400 METRES)

Speed Map

He’s Tough Enough looks like working across the field to lead ahead of the likes of Westy, Synapse, Kent Street, He’s Rushin’ and Kateland. That should result in a good tempo to give them all their chance.

Major Players

5. Kent Street finally gets out to the mile after four very solid 1400m runs. Last run was possibly his best so far when forced to race wide throughout and he was only picked up near the line by Beenagem. Makes his own luck on speed and keeps sticking on so expect the distance to suit. Four weeks between runs and getting deep into his first preparation are concerns but he looks a leading chance.

6. Perun made his Tasmanian debut here a fortnight ago over 1400m and kept finding the line into 3rd behind Sh’bourne Star despite racing wide. Has placed over 2000m so the extra distance here should suit. Drawing wide again looks his major obstacle but if he can get a good run in transit he will be hard to beat.

3. Seize Them All continues to race well without being able to crack it for his maiden win. Wasn’t bad over the mile two starts ago before dropping back to 1400m last time to run 2nd behind Monmouth. Yet to totally prove himself at the mile but his form ties in well enough here to rate as a solid each way chance again.

1. He’s Rushin’ dropped back to 1400m last time but made a mess of his chances at the start so his effort to work home into 5th was satisfactory behind Sh’bourne Star. Narrowly beaten over this course the start prior so better suited this time and can work forward into a good spot on speed. Reasonably consistent of late and has each way claims.

4. Zipponet has run home impressively at his past couple here over 1400m, finishing 2nd behind a couple of potentially handy gallopers in Ivoryman and Sh’bourne Star. Goes to a mile now where he has failed in two previous tries but one was earlier in his career and the other was when ridden upside down. Ridden quietly seems to agree with him but he still has to prove himself at this trip and has to go back from the wide draw. Knockout chance once again.

Next best He’s Tough Enough (2) (first-up 1600m but two longer trials leading in and wants this trip, one-paced but goes forward and might stick on into a place).

Verdict

Kent Street (5) looks likely to get the right run to be in the finish at his first go over a mile, while Perun (6) was very good first-up in the state and will be hard to beat with luck in running. Seize Them All (3), He’s Rushin’ (1) and Zipponet (4) all have winning claims.

Staking Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Perun for 3 units

 BACK (WIN) – Kent Street for 2 units

Race 4 – 18:50 R F Fergusson BM64 Hcp (1620 METRES)

Speed Map

No obvious leader on paper here with Welcome Invader being ridden with a sit of late. Datuk Zadragon might kick up from his inside draw while Solomon’s Song can work across from wide out but this is potentially a messy race if the tempo is muddling early.

Major Players

3. Axion doesn’t know how to run a bad race and looks hard to beat here once again. Last couple over this course have been very good when only narrowly beaten on both occasions. Yet to miss a place here in 8 tries and should get the right run again. Doesn’t win as often as maybe he should but he deserves to be top pick once again.

2. Datuk Zadragon is racing in excellent form over this course with two wins and a 3rd from his last three starts. Got to similar grade last time and was right in the finish when a close-up 3rd behind Toorak Affair and Axion and may not have been suited by the slow tempo. From gate 1 he should be right on the speed and he only has to hold his form to be an excellent chance.

1. Welcome Invader has been ridden a bit quieter at his past couple of starts and is responding well. Didn’t have a lot of luck two starts ago before finding the line strongly last time to run 2nd in Hobart behind Bayview Emperor. Returning to the mile suits and is a proven weight carrier. Looks an obvious winning hope once again.

4. Flying Geepee had the right run last start at Devonport but recorded a good win all the same. Previous racing on this track was very consistent, predominantly over 1400m, but while he hasn’t placed over the mile in six attempts he was beaten less than a length here on Cup day against the likes of Welcome Invader and Axion. Rarely runs a bad race and has each way claims in a competitive race.

5. Solomon’s Song failed here last time behind Zatacla but his previous 2nd behind Welcome Invader on Cup day was very game and lines up well for a race like this. Drawing out shouldn’t be an issue as he can roll forward in a race with little forward pressure on paper. Mixes his form but his best is good enough so he is another with an each way hope.

Next best Geegees Gran Lodge (6) (racing well and can be thereabouts but this is a bit tougher than what he has been contesting

Verdict

Axion (3) appeals as the obvious here and is deserving of favouritism but there are many chances in what looks a good betting race. Datuk Zadragon (2) is likely to get a great run on speed and may be the one if the track is playing that way.

Staking Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Datuk Zadragon for 2 units

Race 5 – 19:30 E (Ted) Cox Memorial Class 3 Hcp (1420 METRES)

Speed Map

Could be good speed here with Acronym looking for the front from wide out and West On Broadway and Braccenby kicking up nearer the inside. This should give all runners their chance.

Major Players

7. No Money No Honey is a classy mare who has been given a let-up since finishing last in the Vamos Stakes in February. Won her only other two tries over this course earlier in her career and was very good first-up this prep in this grade over 1100m. Suited back to this company but will be giving them a start from her wide barrier. If she gets luck in running or the track advantages those coming wide she will be very hard to beat.

11. Jubilance was very unlucky last start over this course when blocked for a run in the straight. Arguably should have won there which followed on from good runs against the state’s leading 3yos, including a win in the Magic Millions. Gets back so needs luck but is starting to deliver on her potential and is one of the better chances.

2. West On Broadway went to 1400m for the first time last start and boxed on well enough for 3rd behind Gone Girl. May be better for that look at the trip and may settle a little better if something else wants to take up the front. Has mixed his form a bit this prep but if he shows his best form he looks the best of the on-pacers.

4. Osborne is racing in good form, following a gutsy BM58 win here over 1200m with a game 2nd behind Liffeybeau last time in this grade. Steps to 1400m for the first time in his career but has had a solid grounding for it. Awkward barrier draw looks a major obstacle but is ticking over well enough to be in the finish with luck in running.

6. Go For It is mixing his form recently but has had excuses, dealing with wide runs and wet ground. Form earlier this prep over this course was strong in easier grade and now comes up with an inside draw – last time he drew 1 he was too good for Somerset. Has been up quite a while now so might have just had enough but potential improver at odds.

Next best Acronym (12) (another who has been up a while but gets back to her right trip and best form is very solid for this grade).

Verdict

Another open race. No Money No Honey (7) is the obvious but with the rail out and a short price likely she might be a trap for punters with her racing style. Jubilance (11) is going very well and looks the main danger despite a similar low-percentage racing pattern, while West On Broadway (2) appeals as best of the on-pacers.

Staking Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – No Money No Honey for 3 units

 BACK (WIN) – Jubilance for 2 units

Race 6 – 20:00 Governor’s Place BM58 Hcp (1220 METRES)

Speed Map

Plenty of pressure up front here. Lads Curfew and Gemini look the most likely leaders with Owens, Nordic Thunder and Speedy Illusion likely to settle near the lead. Many of these emergencies can go forward also if they gain a start.

Major Players

6. Owens comes back in grade here after a game 3rd in tougher company behind Orange River and Sentimental Dream. Previous two runs were over this course in this grade and were very solid 2nds after racing on speed. His wide barrier is potentially very awkward but he is racing very well and with luck getting across he appeals as a leading chance in a very hard race.

5. Nordic Thunder resumes from a spell but looks ready to go after winning two trials leading into this. Last run before a break was a solid 2nd over this course which followed reasonable runs against the state’s best 3yos. Has a bit of scope and has won fresh in the past so while he is racing slightly out of his grade he has genuine winning claims.

3. Speedy Illusion had the right run over this course when he broke his maiden two starts ago before being held up behind the leader when a close 3rd behind Braccenby at Devonport. Kept up to the mark with a recent trial win and draws ideally to get a similar suck run behind the leaders again. This is a bit tougher but should get the right run to give him his chance. Solid each way claims.

10. Bedrock Dreams has been freshened since a midfield finish in Hobart in tougher company behind Shining Star. Previous racing over this course was quite consistent and arguably should have won in this grade two starts ago. Comes up with a nightmare draw here and has only won 2 from 28 so hard to have too much confidence but her best is good enough if things go her way.

1. Lads Curfew comes back in trip here after failing over 1400m last time. Won over this course previously in C1 grade when able to sit outside and beat Breathtaking. Has plenty of weight but a good draw and generally races well here so can bounce back, especially if the track is favouring those on speed or near the rail.

Next best Belrock Boy (4) (didn’t have much luck resuming and ran well, outside barrier makes it tough but blowout hope).

Verdict

Very open race with most of these having some chance. Owens (6) is the one dropping in grade who will take beating whereas Nordic Thunder (5) is the 3yo with scope. Speedy Illusion (3) looks suited if the rail is the place to be, whereas Bedrock Dreams (10) comes into the race if making ground out wide is the place to be.

Staking Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Owens for 1 unit

 BACK (WIN) – Bedrock Dreams for 1 unit

Race 7 – 20:30 Henry’s Restaurant Class 1 Hcp (1420 METRES)

Speed Map

Balestrand is the likely leader with The Grey Crusader potentially pushing forward from wider out. Kathonious and Sh’bourne Star can settle handy as may Ramaadi Bullet out to this trip.

Major Players

3. Kathonious has been racing well over this distance range with a win and a 2nd over this course before working home into 3rd last time at Devonport. Wasn’t really suited where he ended up in the run last time and is probably better placed back on the grass. Has been up a while and is showing less early speed in his races which is a bit of a concern but looks a leading chance in an even race.

8. Sh’bourne Star comes here off a maiden win where she was able to settle outside the leader on a slow tempo and prove far too good in the run home. This has considerably more depth but she has reasonable showings against a few of these back in maiden company and has always shown a bit of scope. Should find a good spot from a better draw and expect her to run well again.

4. Valerius is the one dropping in grade, coming back from a luckless run in C2 company which featured a decent effort in benchmark grade first-up. Should be fitter with the run over this trip under his belt and this does look an easier race. Gets back in the field so always needs luck but will take holding out late if he gets the breaks.

1. Banca Boy comes back from the mile when a big betting drifter before finishing 4th behind One Way Ticket. Might be better placed at 1400m and ran a close 2nd over this trip two starts ago. Wide barrier will make his life difficult and has had a few chances but with luck in running he is more than capable.

5. Balestrand likes to run along in front but comes back to the shortest trip he has raced over since arriving in the state late last year. All his runs at a mile have been quite good and his only win came over 1300m so the shorter trip might not necessarily be the disadvantage it first appears. Drawn to lead and might surprise.

Next best George’s Gambol (not bad two starts ago when beat home Kathonious before little guide last time, Newitt goes on, has a hope with the right run) and Outdone (7) (first run for Scott Brunton, Victorian form is reasonable, definite betting watch).

Verdict

Another even race with plenty of depth. Kathonious (3) and Sh’bourne Star (8) look like getting good runs and have strong claims on that basis. Valerius (4) is the one dropping in grade, while Banca Boy (1) is disadvantaged by the barrier but comes right into calculations if the inside is starting to chop up.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Kathonious for 2 units

 BACK (WIN) – Valerius for 1 unit

Race 8 – 21:00 Unique Doors & Windows BM70 Hcp (2130 METRES)

Speed Map

Not much obvious speed here so Sentry Duty may take up the front again. One Way Ticket will be handy while Sudden Shock may go forward with Voorham back on. Expect a basic tempo here which may help those having their first run over the trip.

Major Players

3. Toorak Affair is racing in sensational form with wins at her past couple at this level over the mile. Goes to 2130m for the first time since last season when she ran two solid races in the feature 3yo filly races. Think the trip will be ok and Graham’s claim will help as she is getting up in the weights. Should get a soft run from gate 1 and only has to reproduce her recent performances over this longer trip to be the one to beat.

1. Sentry Duty scored a game win with this weight in Hobart before controlling the race from the front last time to prove too strong for Hugo. Drops in grade but gets right back up in the weights as a result. Not much obvious speed here so could control the tempo again but capable of taking a sit if something else wants to run along. Hasn’t done anything wrong at his past couple and can win again without surprising.

7. Matiano is a horse with plenty of ability but an allergy to the winning post. Continues to run excellent races and his last start 2nd behind Toorak Affair was no exception. Beaten less than half a length at both tries over 2100m this prep and is very well weighted on the minimum. Hard to have any confidence in him winning with his 2 from 32 strike rate but his place claims are extremely strong.

4. One Way Ticket scored a strong win in Mdn/C1 company last time over the mile when heavily backed to run favourite. Makes a large jump in grade here but should also appreciate the longer trip. Has the tactical speed to get a good run near the lead but his chances look best on an each way basis.

5. Taramaya has been running on well this prep without much luck and now goes to 2100m for the first time. Racing like she wants it this preparation but still some query until she proves herself at the longer distance. Is definitely up to this grade as shown by her last start 3rd behind Toorak Affair and Matiano so if she runs the trip she is capable of winning.

Next best Red Spyder (2) (another going to this distance range for the first time, racing well enough to feature if he gets the extra trip).

Verdict

Toorak Affair (3) is racing so well that the extra distance might be her only stumbling block. Sentry Duty (1) is the on-pacer suited by the lack of pressure, while Matiano (7) presents as a great place betting option as usual.

Staking Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Sentry Duty for 2 units

Race 9 – 21:30 Cressy Cricket Club BM70 Hcp (1220 METRES)

Speed Map

Expect the speed to be right on here. Cranbrook, Neilson, Orange River and Kyogle Son can all lead on their day, with Kool Kash and The Master Speed also capable of pushing forward.

Major Players

8. Orange River dominated the small field from the front here a fortnight ago when successful first-up in BM64 grade. This is tougher and also has a lot more pressure up front but she races well over 1400m and has shown the ability to take a sit in the past. Drawing out a bit should give her options to see what those underneath her do and she has a fitness edge over a lot of these. Leading chance in a tricky race.

9. Winston Wolfe looks to be suited by the pressure for the front as he likes to relax back in the field and will do no work finding a spot from his inside draw. Hasn’t won for quite a while with his racing pattern not conducive to a high winning strike rate but he has ran well many times in this grade and placed both starts over this course. Needs plenty of luck but if the on-pacers carve each other up he might be the swooper to knock them off.

6. Cranbrook was left alone in front in BM68 grade over this course two starts ago when a dominant all the way winner before going to 1350m last time and battling on to hold 2nd behind Flying Geepee. Probably better suited back to this trip and is able to take a sit if they want to push on outside him. Newitt stays with him and his form on the grass is very good. Still on the up and a genuine chance here.

2. Nielson started a short priced favourite when resuming at Devonport but faded badly in the straight after leading them up over 1000m. Looks set to cop plenty of pressure up front again but the switch to the grass track is no issue. Plenty of weight to carry and needs to improve sharply on his first up run but his best is good enough to be in the finish.

5. Concentrate also went quite poorly first-up at Devonport when 4th and last in the same race as Nielson. Struggled to keep up there but much better suited out to 1200m and has a liking for this track. Needs plenty of luck from back in the field and his first-up run wasn’t one to recommend him from but he is capable if he finds his old form.

Next best Gee Gees Style (7) (underrated galloper who rarely runs badly and might get a nice camp behind the speed, respect any positive market moves first-up) and Kyogle Son (4) (speedster who has run his best races at Devonport and finds plenty of pressure for the front here so might need this).

Verdict

Tough race. Orange River (8) might be the best of the on-pacers with her ability to run a strong 1400m but if the pressure is too strong or the fence is off, those behind the speed like Winston Wolfe (9), Concentrate (5) and Gee Gees Style (7) come right into play.

Staking Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Winston Wolfe for 2 units

Race 10 – 22:00 Launceston Mitsubishi BM80 Hcp (1420 METRES)

Speed Map

Liffeybeau, Tambro’s Game, Steel Moon and Harvey Bay can all roll forward so expect one to take up the front and they should set a genuine tempo between them.

Major Players

4. Zatacla has been racing in super form over the mile with two strong wins following his game 4th in the Mowbray Stakes. Comes back to 1400m which is a minor obstacle but has performed over shorter trips in the past. Looks like getting a lovely trail and kept up to the mark with a soft trial so he looks the one to beat again.

6. Liffeybeau found his race last time dropping back to 1100m and appreciated having the leader running along in front of him at a good clip. The rise in trip is no issue and the inside draw should help him settle with cover but he ideally wants one to run along in front of him. Has a stack of ability but does things wrong so the senior rider will help and he looks an obvious danger if the penny is starting to drop.

5. Gone Girl comes up in grade after an impressive win over this course last time out in C2 company. Racing in great form when allowed to settle at the rear of the field and has shown a distinct liking for this track. Inside draw might be awkward in the small field with her racing pattern but is a smart filly and can make the leap to this grade.

1. Beaufort Lad has been kept fresh since struggling to make an impression from back in the field behind Zatacla here over the mile. Given a quiet trial last week and this trip suits fresh. Will be giving them a start but Newitt is a positive booking and if they are getting wide by the last he will be suited. Quality galloper who shouldn’t be overlooked.

2. Steel Moon is an interesting runner, coming to this trip first-up despite being unplaced in all three tries over this distance range in the past. Has trialled leading into this and with Carr booked you would suggest he has been somewhat set for this if he takes his place in the field. Definitely up to this grade and has placed here on multiple occasions but still seems a big ask first-up.

Next best Harvey Bay (3) (bit better last time on his home track but this is harder and previous form was only fair).

Verdict

Zatacla (4) is the obvious but may not be value coming back in trip. Liffeybeau (6) can run well, especially if on-pacers are suited, while Beaufort Lad (1) and Gone Girl (5) are the swoopers if the track is feeling the effects of a big 10 race program.

Staking Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Zatacla for 4 units


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