Racing returns to Launceston this Sunday with a competitive 8 race program set to kick off at 12:05. The rail goes out to the 10.5m position for the first time which may see riders get wide in the straight like the previous meeting. The track was rated a Soft 7 on Friday and with cold, frosty conditions forecast it may not improve much from there.


12:05 – 1220 METRES

Speed Map

Not a lot of obvious speed here. Bloomin’ Late can lead if she begins better than last time while Egalitarian can roll forward from his wide draw. La Superba should settle just behind them with the majority of these usually settling midfield or worse. On-pacers look advantaged.

Major Players

8. Egalitarian: Ran a couple of respectable races here on wet ground before going to Devonport where he stuck on alright after racing wide throughout and pushing forward mid-race. Should be very fit now and looks like getting a pretty comfortable run on speed. Has no weight with Graham’s claim so expect him to give a big sight in front. Major chance.

7. Om Nom: A newcomer to the Adam Trinder stable after racing in Victoria for Michael Kent. Has shown ability in maiden company with a placing and a few close up finishes and was thought enough of to be run in a Group 3 2yo race at her debut. Hard to line up her form but finds a very winnable race so watch the market and suggest she can win if fancied.

4. Candlepins: Ran the best race of her career so far last time in Hobart when running on into 2nd behind Mansplaining. Is usually slow to begin and can do some things wrong in her races still but has shown the ability to run some decent sectionals on occasions. Only has to run up to her last run to be in the mix here and has each-way claims.

6. La Superba: Ran well enough at her first Tasmanian run when third behind Rubinic in Hobart. Was able to box seat in the run there and should get a good run just behind the leaders here. Has performed on wet ground and the extra 100m should be suitable considering how she finished off last time. Another with each-way claims.

10. Oceania Hope: Resumes from a spell here after three runs earlier this season against her own age. Placed here over 1100m behind Geegee Rock’n’run and did look like she would improve with time. Hasn’t trialled so this trip fresh may be an issue if the ground is testing but in light and has Clark on top. Can run a race if ready.

Next best The Greatness (9) (did a bit wrong on debut but wasn’t hopeless, gets blinkers on this time and bred to like wet ground so improvement expected).

Verdict

Even race with an obvious watch on Om Nom (7). Leaning to Egalitarian (8) of the local brigade and he appeals on an each-way basis.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (E/W) Egalitarian for 2 units

12:40 – 1420 METRES

Speed Map

Limited speed here. Trophy Legs and Fearless Filou look most likely to take up the running although the emergency Mighty Hoffa can go forward if he gets a start. Those landing on speed may be advantaged.

Major Players

6. Valerius: A horse with plenty of talent who ran very well when resuming at Devonport for a narrow 3rd behind Overplay. Has had four weeks to get over that effort and has always looked like he wants this trip. Debut run here was very solid when fifth behind Zatacla and Trophy Legs and think he will appreciate getting back onto the grass. Looks well placed here and might be ready to start delivering. Top pick.

10. Trophy Legs: A consistent filly who has run reasonable races here on wet ground at both starts this prep. Should be fitter for the run over this trip under her belt and looks like getting a soft run on speed from an inside draw. Getting a bit costly for punters but ready to peak here third-up and she looks one of the better chances again.

7. Fearless Filou: Was well supported when resuming in Hobart over 1100m but she found Rubinic too speedy. Much better suited up to this trip where she ran honestly in her first two runs in the state last prep. Drawn out should suit here as she can roll forward to race near the lead and she has placed second-up in the past. Consistent mare who should be right in the finish again and can win.

9. Tiloka: Improved again last time when fourth behind Arving over this course on wet ground. Gets the services of in-form Raquel Clark and she may be able to settle closer with the lack of pressure and the addition of winkers for the first time. Looks to be improving at every run so she has genuine each-way claims.

4. Hot Chisel: Was well backed at his Tasmanian debut in Hobart and ran a respectable 3rd after settling back off the speed. Suited getting up to this trip and outside draw might not be an issue if wet ground. This looks a bit harder than last time but respect the market and he can run home into the finish in this.

Next best Dragonbite (3) (ran home nicely last time against a number of these and doesn’t have to improve much again to be in the finish) and British (1) (ran home into 3rd last time behind Arving and that form obviously ties in alright here, maybe ready for longer now?).

Verdict

A number of winning chances but looking to the different form of Valerius (6) who has talent and can go on from a good first-up run.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Valerius for 4 units

13:15 – 2150 METRES

Speed Map

Small field and no genuine leader so could be a muddling run race. This Cat Rocks may roll forward and take up the running while Don Reggio can race handy. Toakio Tower and Hushama go to this trip for the first time so they may push forward while Geegees Lillybet has been capable of going forward in the past but has been ridden quieter of late. Tricky map.

Major Players

4. Broadway Velvet: Makes a jump in grade after proving far too good last time in a limited C1 over this course on heavy ground. Promising staying mare who ran a good 2nd earlier this season over this course in BM62 grade behind Divine Denona and narrowly beat home Geegees Lillybet there at only her 4th career start. Gets right down in the weights and can forgive her run at Devonport when well beaten behind Don Reggio. Harder here but can win again.

6. Geegees Lillybet: Racing in very good form without winning, with her last three runs especially full of merit. Ran a game fifth in the St Leger here over 2400m and her last run over 2100m in Hobart was good in fast time behind Appmat. Handles wet and dry ground and suited in this grade. Has only won two of 32 but is improving and looks one of the better hopes.

1. Don Reggio: On the quick back-up after a solid second behind Banca Dream over the mile at Devonport last week. Racing well around this grade on the synthetic but has shown himself to be just as competitive on the turf and last prep ran a close second to King Manu over 2100m on wet ground in Hobart. Doesn’t often race over this trip but has a big fitness base to attempt it off here and is a proven weight carrier. Should be in the finish as usual.

3. Storm Gust: Was retired after failing here on heavy ground two starts ago but jointed the Peter Luttrell stable and bounced back with a strong win over 1880m at Devonport last week. This is a slight rise in grade and he goes to 2150m for the first time but he has always looked like he wants to staying trip and he did win on his other heavy track run. Only has to run up to his latest effort to be a winning chance again.

7. Toakio Tower: Ran fourth behind Storm Gust last week after making a mid-race move from the back to lead into the straight but she tired late. Goes to 2150 for the first time but with four 1880m runs under her belt she is well placed to try it and is by Pentire. Has only won twice in 42 starts but racing consistently and should be thereabouts again.

Verdict

Keen on the top two chances here. Going with Broadway Velvet (4) who has impressed in her short staying career so far, but plenty of respect for Geegees Lillybet (6) who is racing in good heart.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Broadway Velvet for 6 units

13:50 – 1420 METRES

Speed Map

D’inzeo should find his customary role in front pretty comfortably here. Kool Kash, Box Of Frogs and Poacher’s Son can all look for a spot just behind him. Tempo should be genuine but there shouldn’t be too much pressure on the on-pacers.

Major Players

1. Box Of Frogs: Was well supported when resuming but was a little disappointing in 4th behind Merrick’s Beauty on dry ground. Out to 1420m is up his alley and he should be able to work across into a good spot from his wide draw. Loves wet ground and probably gets it here in what is the easiest race he has contested for quite a while. In well with Thornton’s claim. Gets his chance here and appeals as top pick.

3. D’inzeo: A specialist at this distance and looks like getting the lead here which he enjoys. Two runs over this course have been a win over Killin Falls and a nose second behind Stella Etoile which is clearly strong form. Failed at his only genuine look at wet ground over 1200m here two starts ago but was slowly away and that run can be forgiven. Should give a big sight in front and is a genuine danger.

2. Stella Etoile: Didn’t get into the race at her first run off a short break in Devonport but doubt she was suited by the track there. Loves this course and beat D’inzeo narrowly here three starts ago when had to overcome a strong on-pace bias. Well performed here on wet ground should it eventuate and very good in this grade. Has plenty of weight and may have to overcome an unsuitable tempo so has a bit against but too smart to leave out.

4. Kool Kash: Ran fairly here three weeks ago over 1220m when first-up off a break and has won twice previously when second-up. Suited by a step up in trip and should be able to roll forward in the small field. Prefers firmer ground so won’t want it too wet and this is about as hard as he wants it. Each-way claims on his preferred conditions.

5. Olly’s A Star: First-up here without a trial but has barely had three months since his last run. First-up last time in he ran second over this course behind Count Da Vinci in easier grade and has generally raced well when fresh in the past. Alright on soft ground and this is his favourite track. This looks a big ask, especially if the track is testing, but capable of running home into a place.

Next best Gold Librettist (6) (resuming, wants further but likes this track and loves heavy ground so may fill a place if gets those conditions).

Verdict

Box Of Frogs (1) may get the wet conditions he relishes to show his best here. Very wary of D’inzeo (3) with the run in front also.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Box Of Frogs for 2 units

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) D’inzeo for 1 unit

14:27 – 1620 METRES

Speed Map

Dalehill should take up the running but expect Give Us A Winner to go forward with her. It’s A Battle can settle just behind them and the on-pacers can dictate the tempo to their liking.

Major Players

2. Hirvonen: Dropped back to 1400m and went right up in grade last time but performed very reasonably to finish only a couple of lengths behind Hugo. Gets back to his right grade here and also looks suited up to the mile, a distance he won his only two starts over recently. Both wins came in Hobart but first-up run at this track was very good. Racing well enough to suggest he will take plenty of beating here.

1. It’s A Battle: Is in good form racing in Devonport but his effort over this course three starts back when a close-up fourth behind Welcome Invader was also very good. Comes back from two 1880m runs which will be of benefit if the track is particularly wet and he has the ability to race on speed which should help in this. Always runs in which is a major query if the fence is chopping out but if the track is holding up on the inside he does look well placed.

4. Mulley’s Idol: Has been mixing his form but finally gets back to the mile, a distance over which he won at his only other try. Recent racing is probably a little better that it reads on paper so only a minor query over how well he is going. His 1600m win in Hobart in January was very good off a less than ideal preparation so very wary what he is capable of back out to this trip. No surprise to see him improve sharply here.

7. Dalehill: Started this prep nicely but things haven’t gone her way since. Led up last week in Devonport but was claimed pretty easily in harder grade. Should get a good run near the lead but recent form does need improving on. Has placed a couple of times over this course and can handle soft ground. May give a cheeky sight in front at odds if the track is racing suitably but running out of chances.

6. Aljazmic: Comes back to the mile after finding the 2130m beyond her last time behind Broadway Velvet. Previous form was solid, including a distant third in Hobart behind Hirvonen under the same weight conditions. Has been up since February so hard to see her running to a new peak but is generally honest and capable on wet ground. May run into a place.

Next best Rather Heroic (3) (getting closer and should appreciate getting back on the turf, inexperienced rider, wants 2100 but only two runs this prep so may have the speed in the legs).

Verdict

Concerned how the inside will play for It’s A Battle (1) so leaning to Hirvonen (2) and Mulley’s Idol (4) in a tricky race to play without seeing how the track is racing.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Hirvonen for 1 unit

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Mulley’s Idol for 1 unit

15:05 – 1220 METRES

Speed Map

Lots of speed here. Silver Reset, Farewell Angelina, Irish John and Lads Curfew can all challenge for the lead, while By The Pound and Our Queenie can look to settle near the lead also.

Major Players

1. By The Pound: Has his first run for David Brunton after racing in Victoria with Patrick Payne. Was sent to Hong Kong as a young horse but failed at his only run. Victorian form in maiden grade reads well and he has handled wet and dry ground. Looks ready to deliver at his first run in the state with maybe an inside draw potentially his only obstacle. Hard to beat.

2. Newts: A promising 3yo who has run well at all three career starts. Made ground first-up in Hobart in tougher BM62 grade and will appreciate the slightly longer trip here. Handles wet ground and only run here was full of merit. Drawn out looks a plus and should enjoy the pressure up front. Will be finishing hard and looks the main danger

6. Lads Curfew: Has put together a couple of solid seconds here on heavy ground and should be nice and fit for this coming back from the 1420m. Drawn out should be a plus with Darmanin having options depending how much speed kicks up underneath him. Has the right form for a race like this but potentially runs into a couple of above average gallopers. Has claims on an each-way basis.

4. Khatun: Resumes here with a trial win in slow time under her belt. Continued to improve in her only preparation and ran some handy races in better grade. An outside draw behind a good speed looks a good situation for her. Finds a strong race but she has some talent of her own and can be running home into the money.

7. Farewell Angelina: Also resumes and has trialled in Hobart leading in. Very consistent at her first prep and handled wet and dry ground. Ran in some reasonable maidens and managed to place in C1 company before going for a spell. Makes her own luck on speed and stays down in the weights but should have some pressure to contend with. Usually thereabouts and should be again.

Next best Silver Reset (3) (finally broke through at last run prior to spell, hasn’t trialled so potential fitness query depending how wet the ground is, prefer to watch at first run in this grade in what is a strong contest).

Verdict

By The Pound (1) brings solid mainland form here and will take plenty of beating. Inside draw poses as his only issue, and if that is troublesome later in the day then Newts (2) from a wide draw presents as a genuine danger.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) By The Pound for 2 units

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Newts for 2 units

15:40 – 1220 METRES

Speed Map

Speed will come from Boart, Sebring’s Joy, Gee Gees Blondie and Time Commands but all are more on-pacers than genuine speedsters. Expecting just a standard tempo on that basis.

Major Players

3. Winston Wolfe: Let rip here two runs ago but just failed to run down Nielson after looking the winner, and again had to settle for 2nd last time in Hobart behind Time Commands after looking the winner in the straight. With the injury to Pires he has Carr on top and in her only previous ride he settled much closer and bolted in. Gets winkers for the first time but Gate 1 could be a disadvantage if the inside is chopping out. Needs luck in running but has a sharp, if short, sprint and should take some beating again.

5. Sebring’s Joy: Was extremely impressive a fortnight ago in Tasmania when bolting in over this trip in Hobart. Big jump in grade from a C1 into a C4 but gets down in the weights as a result. Both wins have come on firm ground so shifty ground here may be a query but she has placed on the wet in Victoria. Showed enough last time to suggest she can make the leap in class and she rates as a leading chance here.

2. Love Magic: Will be much fitter for his first run from a break when fourth behind Time Commands and Winston Wolfe. Was forced to race wide without cover there so his effort to finish close-up was game. Bolted in over this course in easier grade at Darmanin’s only other ride and all three runs at this track have been very good. Wet ground looks no issue and wide draw may prove very suitable. Right in the mix.

7. Scrutineer: Resumes here and trialled very nicely behind Nunivak leading into this. Won nicely over this course second-up last time in and has won on heavy ground so capable on any track conditions. Generally slow out so will be giving these a start but has plenty of talent and has form around Love Magic and Time Commands last prep. Smaller field suits and she has a knockout chance here.

6. Time Commands: Was very gutsy last time when able to fight back and nose Winston Wolfe out in Hobart. Enjoyed a very good run there on speed and now meets her two rivals 3.5kg worse from that. Previous run here on heavy ground was reasonable but there remains a query on her if genuinely wet. Doesn’t look as well suited here but honest and has some hope.

Next best Gee Gees Blondie (4) (racing well in Devonport but has been getting every chance, form alright at this track, usually around the mark) and Boart (8) (not bad last time but this is pretty tough).

Verdict

Competitive race. Winston Wolfe (3) might have been costly at his past couple but he is still in very good form and a change of rider might do the trick.Scrutineer (7) is a smart mare who may be ready to go to a new level this prep.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Winston Wolfe for 3 units

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Scrutineer for 1 unit

16:15 – 1420 METRES

Speed Map

No genuine leader here but a number of on-pacers who should ensure a reasonable tempo. Kryptonian, Flying Geepee, Pura Vida and Glory Blaze are all capable of rolling forward as may Kelly’s Diva if she rediscovers her early speed.

Major Players

1. Trusted Warrior: Was especially dominant here three weeks ago when able to get to the right spot down the side and he charged away for a massive win. Likely to get similar conditions here again and this doesn’t look much harder despite the rise in grade. Should be enough pressure up front to suit him again so he only has to run up to his latest effort to be hard to beat again.

5. Qui Samer: Has raced well all preparation but hasn’t been able to break through for a win. Ran an excellent 2nd here two runs back over 1220m before finishing hard over 1100m the week after. Hasn’t won over this longer trip but ran a narrow second over this course earlier this prep and he will appreciate soft ground. Outside draw will probably be ideal by this stage of the day and he appeals as the main danger.

3. Flying Geepee: Has his first Tasmanian run here for Alana Fulton after racing for Robbie Griffiths in Victoria. Has been competitive in BM64 grade and both his runs have come in this distance range. Stable is very good with runners having their first run and Darmanin is a positive booking. Genuine wet ground would be a query but watch the market as he can show up if fancied.

2. Kryptonian: Has had four weeks between runs as he comes back to this trip from a pair of 1880m runs. Took a couple of runs after arriving in the state but scored a gutsy win over the mile and may be better suited over the shorter distance. Wet ground is fine having won his maiden on heavy ground in Victoria. No disadvantage rolling forward here, comes out of some competitive races and has each-way claims.

4. Pura Vida: Made it two wins in a row last week in Devonport with a determined win over the handy 3yo Weekend Whisky. Has hit her straps over this distance range although both wins have come on the synthetic. Form on the turf earlier this prep was fair but a genuinely wet track would be a query. Up in grade again but in form and can be thereabouts again.

Verdict

Trusted Warrior (1) will be all the rage after his last start win and looks top pick again but just a little wary of rock bottom odds. Qui Samer (5) has genuine claims, while Flying Geepee (3) is a market watch first-up for Fulton.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Trusted Warrior for 4 units


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