The Tasmanian Summer Racing Carnival continues this Sunday in Launceston with an 8 race card set to kick off at 12:40pm. The highlight is the Group 3 $150,000 Armidale Stud Needs Further Vamos Stakes, which will see Bow Mistress winner Gogo Grace face stiff opposition from local mares Life On The Wire and Gee Gees Top Notch as she tries to do the double. The Darren Weir-trained Pleasuring is expected to start a short-priced favourite in the other feature event, the Listed $150,000 Brooklyn Park Agistment Tasmanian Oaks after her impressive Strutt Stakes win.

 

Race 1 – 12:40 City of Launceston Maiden (1200 METRES)

Speed Map

Orange Encounter looks the likely leader but Banca Bet may try and hold the inside with the winkers on. Lesnar and La Superba have speed while Gee Gees Liberty shouldn’t be too far away.

Major Players

10. Banca Bet: Had good support on debut when second behind Treeconi after doing plenty of work outside the lead. Has the winkers on here and drawn nicely to lead or take a sit as required. Looks to have plenty of ability and only has to go on from her debut run to be very hard to beat in this.

12. Gee Gees Liberty: Looked to have every chance two starts back when third behind Treeconi and Banca Bet before enjoying a good run again when no match for Berbent last time. May be better suited ridden a bit quieter and has that option from an inside draw. Consistent filly who needs to improve to beat the favourite but looks one of the dangers.

1. Lesnar: A 4yo making his debut for the Mark Ganderton stable. Much better at his second trial when able to hold the lead and ran a close second in fair time. Should find a good position on speed from an inside draw which will give him his chance. Watch the betting closely.

2. Shackley’s Hill: Was quite good two starts ago in Hobart when third behind Geegees Cash Cow before running into a dead end on the inside last time. Back to this trip should be OK and well drawn to slot in midfield. If the pressure goes on up front he should be able to run home into the finish.

Next best La Superba (6) (resuming, has trialled twice, first-up run last time was ok and place hope on that) and Beenagem (11) (should be better for debut run and may improve).

Verdict

Very hard to go past Banca Bet (10) who looks extremely hard to beat on what she has shown so far.

Staking Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – Banca Bet for 8 units

Race 2 – 13:20 Kachoo Apprentice Series Maiden/Class 1 (1600 METRES)

Speed Map

Lord Derby may kick up and lead here with horses such as Kandahar, Fearless Filou, Modern Dane, The Auditor and Kathonious capable of going forward from out wide.

Major Players

3. Double You Tee: A very classy 3yo dropping right back in grade here after a Derby campaign. Ran close seconds in the Tasmanian and Hobart Guineas before running on for fourth in the Derby last time over 2200m. Drops sharply in trip with only a fortnight between runs and gets back in the field which are both minor queries but with even luck in running he should be winning.

2. Lord Derby: A promising staying gelding who has had an interrupted preparation but wasn’t bad racing forward on a strong tempo last time when getting to the mile for the first time this prep. Looks like getting a comfortable run on speed if he can begin well from the inside draw and suggest he is just about ready to show his best with the 1600m run under his belt. Won over this course last year on Cup day and he should give a good sight up front.

8. Mag Wheels: Racing very consistently with placings at her past three starts, all over this distance range. Ran second over this course two starts back before a strong second last time on Hobart Cup day, beating home a number of her rivals here. Well drawn and has one of the better young riders in the race aboard in Lachlan Dodds. Clearly one of the dangers to the favourite.

12. The Auditor: Comes back in trip after unplaced efforts in the Hobart Guineas and a Maiden/C1 last week, both over 2100m. Not sure the shorter trip is what he wants at this stage of his prep but did place over the mile at Pakenham earlier in his prep and has shown the ability to go forward which could be an advantage if they do so in this. Needs to improve on his last run but stable obviously have some opinion of him to come down for the Guineas and his best could feature here.

4. Kandahar: Also coming back from a staying preparation but has had four weeks off since his last in the Hobart Guineas. Won his previous start here over 2100m and did run two placings over a mile earlier in his prep. Can be a bit temperamental so may be suited here going forward from a wide draw and has each way claims at longer odds.

Next best Hell Baby (14) (mixes her form and needs luck in running but last run behind Paterangi was good so can run home into the finish).

Verdict

Double You Tee (3) is obviously the class runner here but will be short odds and is dropping sharply in trip. Lord Derby (2) is just about ready and can give a good sight each way.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – Lord Derby for 1 unit

Back on Betfair BACK (PLACE) – Lord Derby for 2 units

Race 3 – 13:55 Tour De Cure Class 3 Hcp (1200 METRES)

Speed Map

Geegee Trendsetter should ensure a strong tempo off the inside draw with Cranbrook and Son Of A Fling looking to work across from wider out. Liffeybeau, By The Pound, Millmount and Schillie Billie can also be on speed in what could be a high pressure race.

Major Players

1. By The Pound: Has been very good at both runs this time in, flashing home after missing the start first-up before running into an excellent performance by Christopher Mac last time. Should be ready to peak third-up and has won here on wet ground previously. Looks one of the leading chances in a competitive affair.

2. Liffeybeau: Has been racing very well but couldn’t get cover last time over 1400m and travelled too strongly which didn’t leave him anything at the finish. Back to a faster tempo at 1200m should suit and gets a senior rider in Darmanin. Drawn for a nice smother but won’t want the track to be too shifty. Definite chance if conditions suit.

9. Geegee Trendsetter: A very quick filly who led them up in the Carbine Club last time in Hobart but faded late to finish 4th. Generally begins well so expect her to hold the lead from her inside draw. Only run down late over this course two starts ago by Il Regalo in slightly easier grade. If the fence is holding up she will be hard to run down in front.

6. Son Of A Fling: Ran a very solid second first-up behind Boart before finding them a bit sharp last time when fifth behind Christopher Mac and By The Pound. Best form has been on wet ground and his wish might come true here. Drawn out but has the speed to get across and has won over this course. Another who can run well if he gets the right track conditions.

5. Cranbrook: Up in grade here after running 3rd behind Apriano in BM62 company following his C1 win on Devonport Cup day. Hasn’t seen a genuinely wet track but both runs on Soft 5 have been good. Drawn out but has the speed to come across into the first few. Has to go to a new level here but is a promising horse still open to plenty of improvement. Each way claims.

Next best Winston Wolfe (3) (racing well but always needs luck from back in the field, suited if fence has gone off).

Verdict

Happy to stay with By The Pound (1) who is racing very well. Also want to give Liffeybeau (2) another chance with the drop in trip, a senior rider and a stronger tempo likely.

Staking Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – By The Pound for 4 units

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – Liffeybeau for 3 units

Race 4 – 14:30 National Apprentice Series Heat 1 Benchmark 58 Hcp (1400 METRES)

Speed Map

Acronym should be able to find the front comfortably here ahead of Boart and Glory Blaze but the speed can often be quicker than expected in races for apprentice riders.

Major Players

12. Acronym: A very honest on-pacer who hasn’t run a bad race this prep. Has finished close up at her past three starts, including a good third over this course last time in C3 company behind Cheers Chappy and Liffeybeau. Is the likely leader here but is capable of taking a sit if something else wants to go quickly. Genuine wet ground would be a concern but ticks a lot of boxes and is a leading chance in a wide race.

9. Speckie: A 9yo who has only won six from 59 but has proven form in better grade than this. Resumed in this company with a solid fourth over 1220m behind Steel Dan but is much better suited up to this trip where he has won three races. Gets back and needs a lot of luck in his races but should get a soft run from the inside draw and has an in-form Sydney apprentice aboard in Jean Van Overmeire. His best is definitely good enough so with luck in running he can swamp them late.

11. Bedrock Dreams: Was desperately unlucky last start when the gap didn’t come on straightening and had to settle for 3rd behind Steel Dan. Was ridden a bit closer to the speed there but comes up with a nightmare barrier this time so unsure where she gets to in the run. Has placed at 1400m earlier in her career but still think it presents as a query until she proves otherwise. Going very well and can feature but probably need a lot of luck in running.

15. Pelagia: Was much better suited second-up over this course and worked home nicely from well back in the field when sixth behind Go For It. That tends to be the story of her career and this is a bit harder but gets a good apprentice rider in Krogh and is drawn for a soft run back in the field. Wet ground wouldn’t be an issue so if she goes on from her last run she can run into the mix again.

4. Olly’s A Star: Comes back in grade here after racing as high as BM82 grade in recent times. His last seven runs have all been over 1600m so the slight drop in trip is a bit of a worry but he has won over this course. Being beaten only four lengths by Speed Force four starts ago is good form for this and there is no doubt his best form is better than this lot, but he hasn’t shown his best for some time now. Capable of a boilover if things go his way.

Next best Cranny Flyer (8) (ticking over ok, tricky draw and back in trip but generally thereabouts), Boart (3) (racing well over shorter distances but 1400m has found him out in the past) and Don Reggio (1) (ran well fresh, wants extra trip but wide draw and inexperienced rider may make it tough).

Verdict

Very even race. Acronym (12) looks like getting the right run which will give her every chance but want to have something on Speckie (9) who can blouse them late with luck in running.

Staking Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – Speckie for 2 units

Back on Betfair BACK (PLACE) – Speckie for 1 unit

Race 5 – 15:05 Sky Racing Benchmark 72 Hcp (2100 METRES)

Speed Map

Look for Geegees Baritone to try and cross the field from out wide but Kanji should also go forward to keep him honest. Hugo, It’s A Battle, Spihro, Volcan De Fuego, Flash Missile and Son Of Faith can all race near the lead so this could be a very strongly run race.

Major Players

10. It’s A Battle: Got to this trip for the first time when third here last week in the Night Cup behind Bidirectional. Ran a very game race there despite being up sharply in grade and now meets many of these better at the weights despite beating them home last time. Makes his own luck on speed but does lay in which would be a concern if the fence chops up. Deserves to run favourite.

8. Volcan De Fuego: Improved sharply last time in Hobart when getting to this trip to win in BM62 grade. This is clearly harder but gets a nice weight drop and has very good wet track form should those conditions prevail. One of the fresher horses on the scene and he can give a big sight at longer odds despite the rise in class.

2. Hugo: Has had four weeks between runs since over racing in the Summer Cup and finishing down the track. Previous run in the Brighton Cup was very good when second behind Eastender after doing plenty of work in the run and he has two wins and a second from three runs over this course. This is easier than what he has been contesting but he has a big weight to contend with and would prefer the ground to be on the firmer side. Will take some beating if he gets his preferred ground.

5. King Manu: Loomed to win two starts back but couldn’t run down Volcan De Fuego before backing up last week to win over this trip in BM64 grade. Is coming out of slowly run races which has probably suited him over this trip but doubt he will get the same here. Generally likes wet ground which will help him in the harder grade and has a hope if he gets those conditions.

9. Flash Missile: Hasn’t had a lot of luck at her past couple when not too far away in competitive races over this course. Brighton Cup 5th was solid enough for a race like this and has run numerous placings over this course. Has been up quite a while now which is a concern and needs things to go her way but is capable if everything falls into place.

Next best Smoke ‘N’ Whisky (6) (hasn’t been far away at past couple, in well with Graham’s claim and is another with a chance in an even race).

Verdict

Good race where track conditions will play a big part. It’s A Battle (10) looks very well placed. Hugo (2) is the class horse who will take some beating if the track is relatively firm, while Volcan De Fuego (8) is on the up and may be the value.

Staking Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – Volcan De Fuego for 1 unit

Race 6 – 15:40 Brooklyn Park Agistment Tasmanian Oaks (2100 METRES)

Speed Map

The tempo could be muddling again like the Strutt Stakes with Maheera being left to take it up again. Gwenville may roll forward with Casa De Lago and the Victorian Berkshire Lady. Shock Shock is capable of leading but was ridden quietly last time.

Major Players

2. Pleasuring: Was shuffled back in the run when favourite in the Strutt Stakes but was still good enough to pick them up with a sustained run from back in the field. No reason she can’t improve again with that 2100m run under her belt and Lane will be able to settle wherever he likes from her middle draw. Had the measure of Last Light and Shock Shock back in Victoria so she looks mighty hard to beat again.

3. Casa De Lago: Was able to settle closer to the speed in the Strutt Stakes and ran well to finish second behind Pleasuring. Has been to this track before in the Thousand Guineas which might be a small edge over the other mainlanders and drawn inside for a soft run. Will need luck to turn the tables on the favourite but handles soft ground and looks one of the dangers.

7. Maheera: Took over mid-race in the Strutt Stakes and gave a dashing display in front, boxing on well to hold third behind Pleasuring. May roll forward again here given it worked last time at longer odds and looks a suitable race to do so. Genuine rain would be a bonus and she has each way claims if it arrives.

6. Last Light: Has been ticking over alright in maiden grade and finally broke through at her third consecutive mile run, beating Shock Shock at Ballarat. Was well held behind Pleasuring three starts ago but looks an improving type who is ready to tackle this trip. Needs to improve to beat the favourite but definite place chance.

11. Shock Shock: Comes through three clashes with Last Light and has lowered her colours to that filly at her past couple, despite starting favourite last time. Was ridden from the back last time but had gone forward previously so Baker will have options from the inside draw. Looks to be crying out for this trip and has the right form lines to be considered one of the better place chances at least.

Next best Pateena Arena (1) (not bad in the Strutt but hasn’t reached the heights she looked like she might) and Berkshire Lady (8) (game staying win in maiden grade last time, not without a place chance).

Verdict

Can’t go past Pleasuring (1) here and think she will complete the double. Maybe Last Light (6) is the improving new blood if one was to beat her.

Staking Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – Pleasuring for 8 units

Race 7 – 16:12 Armidale Stud Needs Further Vamos Stakes (1400 METRES)

Speed Map

Not a lot of obvious speed here. Life On The Wire is capable of taking up the running while a couple of roughies in Miss Two Pairs and Secrets She Has can race near the lead. With most of these preferring to get back those who can land on speed or have a sharp turn of foot can be advantaged.

Major Players

2. Gogo Grace: Couldn’t have been more impressive in winning the Bow Mistress Trophy in Hobart, winning by over 4 lengths. Enjoyed a great run there midfield behind the fast pace but she showed a serious turn of speed and ran clearly the fastest sectionals of the meeting. Step up to 1400m seems fine given she has won at 1600m but she is unlikely to get the same strong tempo to chase this time. If she goes on from her last win she will be very hard to hold out again.

4. Life On The Wire: Was an unfortunate late scratching in the Bow Mistress when a clear favourite to take out the race. Given the market expected her to beat Gogo Grace there she looms as an obvious danger this time, especially considering she is probably better suited at 1400m. That said, that setback means she is probably a genuine fitness concern at this trip and she isn’t at her best on genuinely rain affected ground. If Brunton has been able to get her right she is a genuine chance to beat the Bow Mistress winner.

1. Gee Gees Top Notch: Comes through a different form line and ran a very solid third in the Thomas Lyons Stakes at WFA against the boys. Races very well at this track and has had this race as her target for a long time. Ideally drawn to get a soft run in behind the speed and wet ground is no concern. Tempo may be against but with luck in running she can definitely win.

3. Step The Pedal: Racing well and found the line alright despite being well beaten behind Gogo Grace in the Bow Mistress. Ran an excellent fourth in this race on dry ground last year and is the obvious one advantaged if the track is especially rain-affected. Outside draw is no help and doesn’t have the class of the top few chances but if the rain has hit and the inside is choppy she will be charging down the middle.

5. Jocasta: Caught the eye in the Bow Mistress when rattling home from back in the field to grab fourth. Hasn’t won over this trip but has won twice over 1300m. Has her work cut out to turn the tables on the winner but can find her way into a place, especially if the swoopers are advantaged.

Next best No Money No Honey (11) (still racing well out of her grade but better suited up to 1400m).

Verdict

Gogo Grace (2) may find a much different tempo to her last start win in the Bow Mistress but showed a great turn of foot there and is top pick to win again. Life On The Wire (4) is an obvious danger but missing the run last time might prove costly. Gee Gees Top Notch (1) shouldn’t be underestimated coming back from taking on the boys either

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – Gogo Grace for 4 units

Race 8 – 22:30 Wakeful Club Maiden/Class 1 Hcp (2150 METRES)

Speed Map

The Auditor should run to the lead here ahead of He’s Rushin’, Miss Artorious and Gwenville. The rest of these generally race midfield or worse so doubt there will be any other pressure up front.

Major Players

1. Kalalo backs up from a very good effort on Sunday in Hobart when he kept coming from back in the field in an on-pace dominated BM62. Previous mainland form was consistent and he should be rock hard fit for this. Might drift back from his wide barrier so will need luck in the run but expect him to be strong to the line and he should be hard to hold out in this grade.

7. The Auditor is an interesting runner after finishing down the track in the Hobart Guineas after leading the field in his first Tasmanian run. Placed twice in maiden grade before coming down and he finds a race where he might be able to control the tempo in front. Hard to line up his form but does look one of the better chances.

3. He’s Rushin’ has run well at his past two starts over this trip, appreciating the distance and settling in good positions on speed. Was no match for Striking Prospect last start but beat the rest comfortably. Newitt stays with him and he draws for the inside trail again. Not sure his last couple are at the level of the Victorians but he looks the best chance of the locals.

4. Miss Artorius beat home He’s Rushin’ two starts ago when she box seated behind Kandahar before finding trouble at the start last time and having to run home from last. Ran a very solid race considering and expect her to resume racing on speed if she begins well. Genuine stayer who has each way claims.

9. Crystal’s Pass covered a bit of ground last time but kept sticking to the line when 4th behind Striking Prospect. Has run well at all three runs over this trip without really threatening the winner but draws in this time for a nice smother. Needs to find a couple of lengths but has place claims at least.

Next best Gwenville (10) (not the worst in the Thousand Guineas last time, first go at 2100m off such a slowly run mile is a concern but has different form which might show up).

Verdict

Kalalo (1) ran well enough on Sunday to suggest he will be very hard to beat back to this grade if he handles the quick back-up.

Staking Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – Kalalo for 4 units


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