Thoroughbred racing on Sunday is in Launceston, with an 8 race card set to kick off at 12:05. The rail is out 9m which can advantage runners near the lead, while the track is rated a Soft 6 as of Friday but is likely to improve with no rain forecast.

 

Race 1 – 12:05 Luxbet 2YO Hcp (1220 METRES)

Speed Map

Need A Queen may hold the lead from an inside draw but expect Gee Gees Cats to push on from the wide draw to challenge. Many of these can take up a handy position so the tempo should be genuine.

Major Players

6. My Biddy: Was well supported on debut in Hobart and recorded a very strong win. She was always pushed along by Pires there so the step up to 1200m should suit and she is drawn for a good run near or just behind the lead. Beat many of the rivals she will face up against here and Pires sticks with her. Appeals as the obvious top pick here.

8. Windrider: Should have finished much closer first-up when third behind My Biddy after running into trouble in the straight against the outside rail. Another who looks suited stepping to 1200m and looks to have the speed to capitalise on the inside draw. Has a 4kg turnaround on My Biddy with McCarthy’s claim so he shapes as a genuine each-way chance to beat the favourite.

10. Need A Queen: Backs up here after a game second last week at Devonport against older mares. Ran 3rd over this course two starts ago when beaten by two promising types in Laughing Heir and Zero Point. The ear muffs come off here and she gets in light with Graham’s claim. Looks set to get a good run near the lead which can be a bonus early with the rail out and she is definitely in the mix.

1. Gee Gee Cats: Comes here with different form, having been very competitive in good 2yo company earlier in the season before spelling. Debut win over Gee Gee Lanett reads very well and he wasn’t far away from good fillies Pateena Arena, Derasa and Il Regalo on different occasions. Had a trial leading in but major query is the 1220m fresh as he looked very short-course in his first prep. Should have the speed to get across and may have strengthened up over his break so monitor market moves.

4. Gee Gee Countryboy: Was well in the market first-up when fourth behind My Biddy in what looks a good form reference for this. Races like the 1200m will suit and he loses nothing with Carr replacing Baker but comes up with an awkward barrier draw. Lands in a competitive race but with luck in running he is capable of being in the finish.

Next best Remigny (12) (debutant who has drawn inside, trialled well in Hobart showing speed and White has put blinkers and Darmanin on so respect positive betting support).

Verdict

Hard to go past My Biddy (6) after her tough debut win and she looks top pick here.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) My Biddy for 6 units

Race 2 – 12:45 Salvation Army Longest Lunch 2nd July Maiden (1420 METRES)

Speed Map

A number of these can roll forward so a bit hard to sort out but maybe Mighty Hoffa crosses from out wide to take it up. Trophy Legs can push forward as can Victory Medal if he is in the mood. Look for Dragonbite, Arving and Manilenya to work across into forward positions, while Egalitarian might settle closer from the inside draw with blinkers on. Should be enough pressure to give all runners their chance.

Trophy Legs (11) ran very well first-up after racing wide throughout to finish 4th behind Laughing Heir here over 1200m. Placed second-up here last prep and has run very well at both starts over this course. Well drawn for in-form McCoull so expect her to land in a good spot near the lead. Has found a pretty suitable race here and gets her chance to break through.

Major Payers

8. Manilenya: Was well beaten on debut by Cousin White Foot but she found the line nicely to run a distant second in what was a promising performance. Beat home a few of her rivals here and looks to have plenty of scope. Stays down in the weights with Graham’s claim but does have an awkward barrier to contend with. Looks the untapped one here so with luck in running she appeals as a genuine danger to the favourite.

10. Tiloka: Has no early speed but has found the line strongly on all three trips to the races so far without threatening. Ran home well behind Laughing Heir here two starts ago before having no chance racing behind a very slow tempo last week in Devonport. The extra trip is in her favour and she will be suited if a few of these want to contest the front. Capable of a big finish and think she is going to give this a bit of a shake.

4. Dragonbite: Had plenty of support first up in Hobart but could only manage a well beaten 3rd behind Cousin White Foot. Was comfortably beaten by Manilenya there but that form ties in reasonably well here. May be better suited by the longer trip and Victorian form was good enough for this. Respect the money from last time and he can improve here.

3. British: Resumed over 1400m in Hobart a fortnight ago but was well held behind runaway winner Country Way. Has a liking for this track with both his placings coming here over this trip and he should be fitter for his first-up run. Best form of last prep lines up pretty well here so respect any market support that says he is ready to fire this time.

Next best Egalitarian (12) (stuck to his task alright last time, gate 1 and blinkers first time may produce good improvement so he is in the mix at odds).

Verdict

Trophy Legs (11) finally gets her chance to break through here. Want to have something on Tiloka (10) who is racing well and might be over the odds.

Betting Strategy

Back on BetfairBACK (WIN) Trophy Legs for 3 units

Back on BetfairBACK (WIN) Tiloka for 1 unit

Race 3 – 13:20 Seniors Festival Benchmark72 Hcp (1220 METRES)

Speed Map

Nielson likes to lead but showed last time he can take a sit so if Classic Outlaw or Meconsul want to match motors early there won’t necessarily be a speed battle. Naadam and Caffeine Hit can be close from their good draws.

Major Players

2. Nielson: Relished the soft conditions here last time when a very strong winner over this course. Racing in very good form this prep and looks to get a good run in or near the lead again. Still in well at the weights with Graham’s claim and should be enough sting out of the track to suit him. This may be a tad harder but with a fitness edge on many of these he will take some beating again.

5. Caffeine Hit: Resumes from a decent spell here with a trial under her belt. Very good on wet ground but showed enough on firmer ground at the end of her last prep to say she is up to this grade. Pires stays with her and she should get a cheap run in behind them from her inside draw. Has won first-up twice in the past so watch betting closely as she is capable if ready.

1. Naadam: Is a talented galloper who has won four of his eight runs here. First-up for this but tuned up nicely in a recent trial. The key to him is firm ground as he can’t show his best on shifty surfaces so the track conditions are vital to his chances. Well treated at the weights after the claim in this grade and drawn ideally with the rail out so if the ground is firm, he is a big danger.

4. Meconsul: Drops back from 1400m when he battled away for third after leading a fortnight ago in Hobart. Better suited back to this trip and he has won twice over this course in the past. Proven in this grade but hasn’t won for quite a while and potentially drawn a little awkwardly here. With luck in running he can be in the finish but lean to him on a place basis.

3. Merrick’s Beauty: A handy mare who has gone off the boil somewhat after a strong first-up win. Likely to be giving these a start with Darmanin on but if the pressure goes on up front she may be suited. Has been consistently contesting higher grades than this so will appreciate this level and kept on the fresh side should suit. Can be hard to catch but has a knockout hope.

Verdict

Tricky race. Leaning to Caffeine Hit (5) to show up fresh but with no great confidence.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Caffeine Hit for 1 unit

Race 4 – 13:55 R F (Bob) Fergusson Mdn/Cl1 (2130 METRES)

Speed Map

Can be tricky to work out the tempo with horses going to the staying trip for the first time. Grand Faith and Hawthorn look most likely to take up the running with Blushing Pink and Please Dance capable of being right there if desired. Doesn’t look much pressure outside those 4 which may result in a basic tempo to advantage the on-pacers.

Major Players

4. Broadway Velvet: A promising staying mare who drops back to this grade after taking on experienced stayers in benchmark grade. Previous run at Devonport over a mile was very good and think she is better suited back here on the grass. Both runs in this distance range have been very good, including a second over this course in much tougher company. Looks perfectly placed and will be very hard to beat.

6. Cincha: Gets to this staying trip for the first time and has always shaped as if he will appreciate the extra distance when he gets to it. Has a good base to attempt it with two good runs over the mile in Hobart leading into this. Bred to run the trip and has shown a bit more dash over shorter trips than most of these. If he runs the distance strongly he appeals as one of few who may pose the favourite some problems.

3. Another Brother: Was given three trials before working home into second first-up in Hobart over 1400m. Now jumps sharply to 2130m which is an obvious query second-up but looks more suited to this unconventional prep than your average galloper. Generally races alright at this track and outside the favourite this isn’t strong. Has each-way claims.

2. Aljazmic: Appreciated getting to the mile four starts ago and has been racing well since. Last start third behind Hirvonen was OK and she beat home Cincha narrowly. Now gets to 2130m for the first time which looks a query but she does have a base of four mile runs to work from. Prefer to see how she handles the distance but concede she is in the mix with these outside of the favourite.

8. Hawthorn: Is yet to run a place in six career starts but his most recent effort to stick on within 5L of Spihro in benchmark grade gave a hint there might be something there. Has the ability to roll forward which looks a bonus here and may be looking for this 2130m trip. Only fourth-up here so potentially still on the improve and he may be one to show up in the placings at longer odds.

Next best Centafloral (5) (not bad two starts back, can forgive last run and reasonable Victorian form over this trip, not the worst).

Verdict

Broadway Velvet (4) looks better than these and should be winning with even luck.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Broadway Velvet for 10 units

Race 5 – 14:32 Rayner Transport Class 2 Hcp (1220 METRES)

Speed Map

Smaller field here but potentially very good speed. West On Broadway may look to hold the lead but could have pressure to his outside from Mel Loves Vodka, Happy Halloween and Son Of A Fling. If so that would advantage those settling behind such as Fragment and Zatacla.

Major Players

1. Fragment: Resumed in strong fashion here three weeks ago when a dominant winner in C1 grade over this course. All three career runs have been over this course and all have been very good. Draws to settle in behind a good speed provided he begins well. This looks stronger than what he beat last time but he is untapped and looks capable of making the leap again.

3. West On Broadway: Another coming through the weaker grades, winning his maiden by a big space two starts back before winning comfortably again last time. Comes away from his home track for the first time but draws nicely for Pires. This is much harder than what he has been beating and he potentially cops pressure from his outside but he looks a 3yo on the up and should give a big sight.

4. Zatacla: A nice 3yo who ran well last time in Hobart over 1400m. Had excuses in previous runs in 3yo grade when unsuited by the tempo. Likely to get back again here with the drop in trip but should appreciate the pressure up front. Loves this track, in well with McCarthy’s claim and has a big hope in a good race.

2. Happy Halloween: Comes back in grade after struggling over this course on heavy ground behind Nielson three weeks ago. Generally loves this track and all his better runs have been on firmer ground than he had to contend with last time. Races best when he gets a good run in the first couple which is a little query here in a race which could have a bit of pressure up front. Has the ability and can bounce back with the right run.

5. Son Of A Fling: Has form around West On Broadway and revelled in the heavy going last time to win comfortably in C1 company. This is much tougher than that race and he draws outside a potentially strong speed which won’t help. Prefer him on wetter ground but may fill a hole if he gets a better run than forecast.

Next best Leconte (6) (resumes here, has trialled, won first-up last prep, in light with Graham’s claim and will appreciate a good tempo so potentially a knockout hope).

Verdict

Hot race with four smart horses heading up the chances. Leaning to Fragment with the sit behind them but look for horses advantaged by any pattern.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Fragment for 2 units

Race 6 – 15:07 E (Ted) Cox Memorial Benchmark62 Hcp (1220 METRES)

Speed Map

Big field but potentially only an average tempo. Gee Gees Style and What An Option look most likely to lead them up ahead of Lady Jane and the Victorian True Lady’s Man. Boart and Time Commands have drawn wide and may choose to push forward to get across with maybe Rougeau settling handy from the good draw.

Major Players

4. Ty Dash: Hasn’t run a bad race since arriving in the state and was good first-up when she ran into a flying Killin Falls. He has since made the form look very strong and she won second-up last time in by a big space. Not just a Devonport horse as her only run at this track was an excellent second behind Count Da Vinci over this trip and it potentially suits her run on style better. Punch may have some issues from the draw but if they are getting off the fence by this stage of the day she is going to take some holding out down the middle.

1. Gee Gees Style: Used to racing in tougher company so appreciated the drop to this grade last time with a good second in Hobart. Gets a little more weight relief this time with Graham’s claim but out to 1200m which can test him. Well drawn and looks like getting a good run on speed which gives him his chance. Big weight makes the last bit a query but a class runner here.

3. Rougeau: Resumes without a trial here but ran 3rd under similar conditions last time in so expecting him to be ready. Doesn’t win often but rarely far away and has placed in four of his five starts over this course. Drawn ideally if the fence is holding up so look for him to get a cheap run just behind the speed and that gives him each-way claims in an even race.

5. Boart: Comes back in trip here after failing over the mile a fortnight ago in Hobart. Form over the shorter trips is quite consistent and he gets the state’s leading rider Pires on top here. Wide draw is tricky but without great pressure on paper he may work over into a good spot near the lead and appeals as a winning hope at longer odds.

10. Qui Samer: Racing well without winning and will find this easier than his last start fourth behind Nielson in C4 company. Has only won two from 34 but has been around the mark at nearly all his runs this prep and he generally runs well at this track. Has form around many of the main hopes here so may show up with luck in running.

Next best Time Commands (2) (did enough first-up and up to this grade but outside gate is a major concern unless the fence has chopped out) and Lady Jane (9) (didn’t handle the ground first-up, best form is right up to this and drawn for a nice run on speed).

Verdict

Very even race. Ty Dash (4) is potentially the best horse in the race and appeals if jockeys are looking for better ground out wide. If the rail is still racing true then Rougeau (3) may show up with a good run. Boart (5) appeals as an improver.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Ty Dash for 2 units

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Boart for 1 unit

Race 7 – 15:42 Gary Wilson Benchmark62 Hcp (1620 METRES)

Speed Map

Another big field but only a few like to roll forward. Secrets She Has probably goes to the front after winning impressively with those tactics last time. Sir Marmaduke and Glory Blaze should be right there while Geegees Lillybet may roll forward from the wide draw.

Major Players

5. Secrets She Has: Revelled in the wet ground a fortnight ago in Hobart to dominate from the front and win by nine lengths. Was able to control the race there but can potentially do the same again here. Goes up 3kg and this race shapes harder under different conditions so don’t want to get carried away off that win but previous form was also solid. Looks one of the better hopes in another even race.

1. Livermore: The class runner of the field and was weighted accordingly but gets in quite well with Graham’s claim. Drops right down in grade after two placings to begin this prep over 1400m. 1400m form is arguably a bit better than his mile form but he has won and placed in his only two tries over this course. Best horse in the race and has won three races at this track so he looks well placed to get back on the board here.

8. White Hawk: A promising stayer in the making who has run well at both starts this prep. Finished off well last time when third behind Sir Marmaduke and while this is his first run at a mile it looks like it will suit him down to the ground. Has a tongue tie for the first time and hasn’t missed a place in three runs this track. Tricky draw but might work forward into a good spot and has definite each-way claims

4. Reann’s Diamond: Racing in super form with two wins and two thirds in her past four starts. Handled the drop back to 1400m very well with a strong win over Zatacla last time and looks better suited back up to the mile here. Placed over this course two starts back when tempo was against so is doing everything right. Getting back with the rail out might be a concern but if they are running home down the middle by this stage of the day there is no reason she can’t be right in the finish again.

6. Sir Marmaduke: Was very game second-up in Hobart when scoring a narrow win over 1400m in C1 company. Will appreciate the step up to the mile and looks suited racing on speed here. Makes a step up in class and from Gate 1 his chances may depend on how the fence is holding up but expect him to give an honest display on speed again.

Next best Geegees Lillybet (11) (comes back from 2400m but previous few over this trip were very solid) and Hirvonen (2)(strung two wins together but this is harder and draw does him no favours).

Verdict

Going away from the likely favourite Secrets She Has (5) who may be overbet after her big win last time. Prefer to work with the class runner Livermore (1) and the improving 3yo White Hawk (8).

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Livermore for 2 units

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) White Hawk for 2 units

Race 8 – 16:24 ATA Celebrates 50 years Class 1 Hcp (1420 METRES)

Speed Map

Expecting good pressure here. Look for Cousin White Foot, Acronym and Give Us A Winner to try and cross from their outside draws but they may need to work to get over in front of Weekend Whisky, Country Way and Lads Curfew. With King Shaka, Parisian Lush and Pop A Lefty all capable of being in the first few this is potentially a high pressure race which may play to the backmarkers.

Major Players

3. Weekend Whisky: Continues to race well despite a long first preparation and seems to have found a niche at this 1400m trip. Laid in last time which arguably cost him the race and had to settle for 2nd behind Sir Marmaduke but there was plenty of merit to the run. Has shown the ability to sit just behind the speed if required which will be important if the pressure goes right on here. Drawn out probably suits by this stage of the day and he looks one of the better chances once again.

1. Trusted Warrior: Was unsuited here first-up on a track which was hard to make ground on early in the day but despite that he finished off quite well right down the outside. Step up to 1420m is right up his alley and he did win here second-up last prep, albeit over 1200m. Looks exceptionally well suited if the pressure goes right on and should get his chance down the middle for McCoull. Definite winning chance, especially if suited by the pattern.

6. Cousin White Foot: Has returned in good style this prep with a nice trial leading into a dominant first-up victory. Gets to 1400m second-up but did all her racing over this trip last time in so it should suit. Pires sticks with her which should help her negotiate her wide barrier. This is much tougher than what she beat last time but looks to have gone to a new level this prep and must be respected.

7. Miss Bluegrass: Comes back from a mile run in Hobart when she finished midfield after having excuses in the run. Previous run at Devonport over this distance range was very good and all her runs at this track have had merit. Has blinkers on for the first time, gets in light with McCarthy’s claim and will appreciate if the pressure goes on up front. Just about ready to peak here so another one who profiles well in a tough race.

5. Lads Curfew: Ready for the 1420m now after a reasonable second last time here behind Son Of A Fling. Can go forward but looks capable of taking a sit from a good draw if things get too quick early. Likes this track and did beat home Trusted Warrior last time but was suited by the pattern. This looks a bit tougher than what he has been contesting but racing well and should be around the mark.

Next best Gee Gees Cool Gal (10) (continues to run honest races so in with place claims again but hasn’t won for a long time).

Verdict

Open race to finish. With plenty of pressure on paper, maybe Trusted Warrior (1) is the one coming down the outside to send us home a winner.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Trusted Warrior for 2 units


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