Race 1 – 12:03 Elwick Functions & Events Benchmark 76 Hcp (1400 METRES)

Speed Map

Not a lot of pressure up front so expect Savs Finale and Agree To to set the pace with Minute Repeater settling on speed. The on-pacers should get every possible chance here.

Major Players

Savs Finale (5) is a promising galloper who made it two wins in a row this prep with a game win last time when rising considerably in grade. Was caught in the wrong part of the track there but was strong to the line, suggesting he is ready for the 1400m trip. Stays down in the weights and should get a good run near the lead. This is harder again but has the scope to make the jump and looks a leading chance.

Minute Repeater (1) has won two of his past three starts, both over this course on heavy ground and both in stronger grade. Makes his own luck on speed and with the 4kg claim for Patis he is well weighted in this company. Has had the right runs at his past couple of wins but only has to maintain his current level to be hard to beat again.

Agree To (4) appreciated getting back to this trip and the heavy ground to run a game 2nd behind Minute Repeater last time. All of his heavy track form is strong so gets conditions to suit and should roll along in the right spot from his wide draw. Generally consistent and looks a very solid each-way chance again.

Stella Etoile (2) has been running some funny races at this track lately, making sharp runs approaching the turn but then losing her position and being found wanting at the finish. Slightly easier grade will suit but has a few lengths to make up on Minute Repeater from their previous clashes. No doubting her ability and maybe the outside draw and making a wide run on the turn this time could bring about improvement. Capable at her best.

Red Spyder (3) hasn’t raced for two months after a solid win over the mile at Devonport. Has won twice on heavy ground in Victoria so the wet ground shouldn’t be an issue and he has been competitive around this level since joining the White stable. His fitness may be an issue over this trip if very heavy conditions prevail and he looks better suited on a place basis.

Next best Don Reggio (6) (no issues coming from the synthetic onto heavy ground and ran well over this course earlier this prep in easier grade but might find these a bit sharp).

Verdict

Savs Finale (5) goes up in grade and has a longer trip to deal with but does look up to the task. Minute Repeater (1) and Agree To (4) will make him earn it, while Stella Etoile (2) has been off the boil lately but is capable at her best.

Staking Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Savs Finale (5) for 2 units

Race 2 – 12:43 Great Northern Super Crisp Benchmark 70 Hcp (1100 METRES)

Speed Map

The genuine leader looks to be Nunivak but most of these can race near the lead so the pressure should be on.

Major Players

Nunivak (5) returns from Victoria where he ran a very good 2nd over 1000m at Warrnambool on heavy ground. Has only ever been beaten once here on his home track in four starts where something clearly went wrong with one of those wins being a big win on heavy ground. Has the early speed to get to the right part of the track and he should take plenty of running down.

Shot Of Irish (1) has been freshened since scoring a strong win down the outside here over 1200m. Unbeaten in three runs on heavy ground and is versatile enough to lead or take a sit as required. This is slightly harder and has to give weight to the older horses but appeals as an obvious chance again.

Angel Of The Abyss (3) is a talented mare resuming from a spell here. 3yo form was very good against the best of her age and all her wet track form is excellent. Didn’t come up at her last two preparations but she trialled quite nicely here a fortnight ago when given a quiet time of it behind Life On The Wire. Risky proposition but has won first-up in the past and she is right up to this if right.

Scrutineer (8) ran well at her first two runs back here over the sprinting trips, showing surprising early speed in the process. Tried to stretch out to 1400m last time but over raced and faded at the finish so suggest she is better suited over this shorter distance. Inside draw isn’t ideal but formlines through Love Magic and Shot Of Irish are very solid for this. Each way.

Gee Gees Style (6) has just about reached his peak this preparation and ran a solid 2nd last time here behind Savs Finale when enjoying a good run wide on speed. Draws to get a similar run again and this slightly shorter trip is arguably his best, having won four races over this distance. Loves wet ground so while this grade is generally as hard as he wants he gets the right conditions to show his best. Some hope.

Next best Tough Missile (7) (solid 3rd first-up behind Savs Finale, very heavy ground can be a test and drawn inside doesn’t suit but rarely runs a bad race these days) and Jacques (4) (tad disappointing fresh, drawn the inside and doubt he is suited by heavy ground so has a bit against).

Verdict

Bruntons hold the key here with the three leading chances and there isn’t a lot between them. Nunivak (5) will give a big sight in front while the 3yo Shot Of Irish (1) loves the heavy, but keep the mare Angel Of The Abyss (3) safe if market support arrives.

Staking Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Nunivak (5) for 4 units.

 BACK (WIN) Angel Of The Abyss (3) for 1 unit.

Race 3 – 13:18 Salamanca Inn Maiden (1200 METRES)

Speed Map

Silent Savings looks set to lead on the outside fence with Red Pearl working across to keep him company. The Last Godfather and Oceania Hope can settle handy while the debutants Shinvada and Deb’s Pride potentially have early speed to go forward.

Major Players

Red Pearl (11) was very well backed at her first Tasmanian run and didn’t miss by much when a close 2nd behind Miss Smith over this course. Had the right run there but should be fitter for that run which will help with the likely heavy conditions. Expect her to find the right part of the track pretty comfortably again and only has to go on from her last run to be hard to beat.

Silent Savings (1) ran a very solid 2nd here two starts back behind Epidexios before finishing a distant 3rd off his inside draw behind Miss Smith and Red Pearl last time. Racing well for the new stable and drawn to advantage this time. Should be in the right spot throughout so while he has a bit of ground to make up on Red Pearl last time he gets his chance to run a big race.

The Last Godfather (2) comes here with different form as he is first-up from a spell after a short prep during the carnival following his arrival from NSW. His first-up run last time in was good in a plain form race where he was in the wrong part of the track in the straight but finished off well. Draws inside which isn’t ideal but the pattern will be well known this time so he may be able to work into the right spot. Fresh on heavy ground is an ask but he is the one if you want to risk the form of the fit horses.

Fontein Ali (5) got a long way back at her first Tasmanian run and was beaten a considerable amount at the finish but she did run on very nicely into 4th behind Miss Smith and Red Pearl. Finished alongside Silent Savings which measures up well here and draws wide so should be in the right part of the track. Extra trip will suit and Darmanin stays with her. Definite chance.

Onnanoko (10) can mix her form and resumes here after a spell with a trial under her belt. Can run time late when things go her way but tends to get a long way back in her races. Finished off well in her only run on wet ground at the start of her career. Tough challenge first-up but she can work home into a place.

Next best – keep an eye on betting with the first starters Deb’s Dream (4) (won a trial in slow time but had a bit in hand and draws right spot) and Shinvada (12) (showed pace to improve at second trial leading in, draw is against).

Verdict

Red Pearl (11) looks well placed to make amends on her narrow defeat at her first Tasmanian run. Silent Savings (1) is drawn to advantage, while The Last Godfather (2) is potentially the best horse in the race but first-up and drawn the wrong side.

Staking Stragegy

 BACK (WIN) Red Pearl (11) for 4 units.

Race 4 – 13:53 trchobart.com.au Maiden (1400 METRES)

Speed Map

Not a lot of genuine speed here. Huontegz and Tara’s Design look the likely leaders with Nordic Raider capable of setting near the front. Uncovered and Cascade City have been capable of racing forward in the past but this still looks like a tempo which should suit those near the lead.

Major Players

Huontegz (4) has been kept fresh since running 4th when favourite over this course behind Angora Princess on soft ground. Two best runs have come on genuinely heavy ground so the wetter conditions here should suit and she doesn’t look to have too much competition racing on speed. Finds a pretty weak maiden and appeals as one of the better chances.

Tara’s Design (10) wasn’t bad here on heavy ground two starts back when 4th behind Miss Eleanor and Miss Smith. Drew wide at Devonport last time and got trapped three wide without cover on speed so her effort was better than it reads. Goes out to this trip for the first time which is a query but draws out and has the early speed to roll along in the right spot. Very good hope if she runs the 1400m out well.

Uncovered (11) is a newcomer to the Peter Luttrell yard after racing in Victoria for Robert Kingston. Heavy track runs early in her career were decent enough and she has placed twice on the provincial circuit. Hasn’t raced for over 7 weeks so fitness may be a query on very heavy ground but is coming off a staying preparation so possibly has the fitness base to cope. Not a hard race to win and Darmanin is a positive booking so suggest she will run well if fancied.

Shivida (7) didn’t have a lot of luck first-up and wasn’t too far away at the finish when midfield behind Harriman and last week’s winner Nova Vista. Has had many chances but has run some good placings in maiden grade harder than this so his best form reads well for a race like this. Gets a long way back in his races so needs luck but has placed on heavy ground and draws out in the right spot. Genuine winning hope if things go his way in running.

In Bloom (8) is a nicely bred mare who has always shown glimpses of ability and had excuses last time when finishing back in the field behind Perun and Zuberina. Finished off well enough in two previous Devonport runs and this 1400m trip looks just about her perfect trip at this stage of her career. Gate 1 is a negative and will need luck from back in the field but a capable knockout chance with the right run.

Next best His Nibs (3) (freshened since failing on soft ground in Launceston, best form is up to this but wet ground and fitness are genuine concerns).

Verdict

Even race. Huontegz (4) appeals as the obvious while Tara’s Design (10) can bounce back after being caught wide last time if she runs the trip. Watch betting with the former mainlander Uncovered (11) and the stablemate Shivida (7) is capable at his best.

Staking Stragegy

 BACK (WIN) Huongetz (4) for 2 units.

 BACK (WIN) Tara’s Design (10) for 1 unit.

Race 5 – 14:28 Hobart Cup Day FEB 10 Class 1 Hcp (1400 METRES)

Speed Map

No obvious leader here. Jack’s Choice, Bunker Star and the resuming Kandahar can all race near the front so expect one to take up the running. Foreeva may push forward again after doing so last time while Lady Wynette and Jane Of Steel are capable of settling handy. Hard to see this run at more than a basic tempo.

Major Players

Shenanigator (1) has his first run here for Scott Brunton after racing in Victoria for Patrick Payne. After a strong debut win he had betting support at Flemington in 3yo grade over this trip but failed. Latest run in a heat of the Silver Bowl was better than it reads after being stuck in the wrong spot while the placegetters came down the middle. His form reads extremely strongly for this and bred to handle wet ground. Does look very hard to beat.

Odessa Lad (6) was racing in good form without luck here on wet ground before going to Devonport and running fairly after being inconvenienced at the start. Better suited back here on wet ground and has regular senior rider Muhcu back aboard now. Failed at his only run over this trip back in November which is a genuine concern but has been finding the line strongly this prep and looks one of the main dangers.

Jack’s Choice (5) had been steadily improving at every run this prep but was a tad disappointing in Devonport last week when sent out favourite. Comes here on the quick back-up and ran alright on heavy ground earlier this prep when a distant 3rd behind Savs Finale. Newitt stays with her and should get a good run on speed. May bounce back and has each way claims.

Kepta (8) has been mixing her form this prep but a lot of that is down to her get back racing pattern. Flashed home last start here over 1200m when she got to the right part of the track in the straight. Races like she wants 1400m but worth noting she has failed at both runs over this longer trip. Inside draw won’t be a help either but always a knockout chance when she gets the right run.

Purple Rider (3) returns to the turf after racing for an extended period on the synthetic. Has been racing reasonably consistently but may be better suited here with his racing pattern and he did place at his only start here last year. Has winkers on for the first time which may sharpen him up early and his only win came when blinkers were applied for the first time. Blowout hope.

Next best Bunker Star (9) (solid placing last time, 1400m is a query but drawn right side and goes forward).

Verdict

Hard to go past the former Victorian Shenanigator (1) as he looks to have found a great race to kick off his Tasmanian career in. Odessa Lad (6) is a query at the trip but looks the danger.

Staking Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Shenanigator (1) for 8 units.

Race 6 – 15:03 AWM Electrical Benchmark 64 Hcp (1400 METRES)

Speed Map

West On Broadway and Bosporus look the two most likely to lead ahead of a number of on-pacers including Balestrand, Turtles Nest, Owens, Trophy Legs and Osborne. Expect enough pressure from that group to result in a genuine tempo.

Major Players

Trusted Warrior (2) is racing in excellent form on his preferred wet ground, following a fast-finishing 4th behind Shot Of Irish with a strong 2nd behind the smart Mandela Effect. Kept up to the mark with a recent trial so staying at 1400m looks suitable. Drawn perfect and has performed well in higher grade so looks well placed in this. Will need luck in running but should prove hard to beat.

Manilenya (5) is a smart mare who did enough first-up when 4th behind Savs Finale here on heavy ground. Extra ground is very suitable, especially considering her Vamos 4th two runs ago. Newitt stays with her and both second-up runs have been good, both over this trip. Obvious winning chance.

Osborne (1) has been a model of consistency this preparation and has successfully stretched out to this distance range. Won over this distance range in this grade at Devonport two runs ago and then trailed in Trusted Warrior last time when 3rd behind Mandela Effect. Draws out in the right spot and shapes for a good run on speed so has each way claims again.

Qui Samer (6) finally broke through for a long overdue win last time over this course in C2 company, racing away against the outside fence in the straight for a dominant win. Relishes the heavy ground and from a wide gate he shapes to get a similar run again. This is harder and always needs luck but a repeat performance has him in the mix again.

Balestrand (9) continues to race gamely over the shorter trips and ran a clear 2nd, albeit well beaten, behind Qui Samer last time. Beat home Trusted Warrior the start prior so his form lines up well for this but he does have the disadvantage of an inside gate. Rolls forward and is tough so expect to see him around the mark again.

Next best Katy Kat (8) (disappointed in tougher grade second-up but drew wrong spot, better drawn this time and handles longer trip) and Turtles Nest (4) (freshened since he didn’t finish off last time, inside draw against and may need the run).

Verdict

Trusted Warrior (2) is flying and looks well placed. Manilenya (5) presents as an obvious danger with a number of wet trackers with lesser chances if things pan out their way.

Staking Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Trusted Warrior (2) for 4 units.

Race 7 – 15:43 Rosevears Hotel Maiden/Class 1 Hcp (2100 METRES)

Speed Map

Country Way and Riptorn look the likely leaders here with Kingsclere handy and Aislinn potentially going forward with the blinkers on. The rest of these generally settle back so the on-pacers should get their chance to run the race to their liking.

Major Players

The Grey Crusader (5) is racing in excellent form and followed up two strong placings on wet ground over this course with a good 2nd at Devonport back at 1880m. Clearly loves these conditions and back to the longer trip should help at this stage of his prep. Has been getting back in his races lately so will need luck getting through the field but only has to hold his form to be hard to beat here.

Kingsclere (3) has come through the same races as his stablemate The Grey Crusader and only been a length or two behind him on each occasion. Looks to get a good run rolling forward which may be an advantage if the track is very heavy. One-paced but quite consistent and he looks to have solid each way claims.

Aislinn (8) didn’t have much support in betting at her first run for Adam Trinder and ran accordingly behind Saalim. Should strip fitter for that and the blinkers go on this time. Worth noting her best run in Victoria was on soft ground over 2000m where she rolled forward which might be the plan this time and the booking of Newitt is a positive lead. Sharp improvement this time wouldn’t surprise so she holds some appeal at longer odds.

Akbar Jay (1) gets to 2100m for the first time this prep off a solitary mile lead-up run where he was solid enough finishing midfield behind Perun. Early runs this prep were very good over sprinting distances which suggested he was in for a good preparation when he got to his right trip. Might need a run at the trip, especially if very heavy conditions, but his best is good enough.

Saalim (4) broke through for his first career win in 18 starts in Devonport last time after being given a good run through the field by Toker. Defeated the likes of The Grey Crusader, Kingsclere and Aislinn there so that form is obviously up to this type of race but he did start big odds there and has had his chances against similar company in previous runs. In with a hope again but needs luck from back in the field and reluctant to entertain at what may be a much shorter price this time.

Next best Country Way (2) (previous mile runs have been very good for a race like this but failed over 2100m two runs ago and that looks a query until proven otherwise).

Verdict

The Grey Crusader (5) continues to run well and gets his chance here. Stablemate Kingsclere (3) is always thereabouts while Aislinn (8) appeals as a potential improver getting onto wet ground with the addition of blinkers.

Staking Strategy

 BACK (WIN) The Grey Crusader (5) for 2 units

Race 8 – 16:23 TRC Punters Club Benchmark 70 Hcp (2100 METRES)

Speed Map

Slalom and Taramaya probably set the pace again, with Slalom racing back last time at Devonport because he was slowly away. Matiano should get a lovely camp again with Sir Marmaduke and Demons Run capable of rolling closer to the front if they so wish.

Major Players

Taramaya (2) is racing in excellent form over this staying trip and comes here off a bold win over this course last time defeating Matiano. Has the tactical speed to make her own luck near the front and the rise in weight isn’t beyond her having won with this weight three starts back on firmer ground in Launceston. Will prove very hard to run down again.

Matiano (3) strung two wins together, including a win over Taramaya over this course, before lowering his colours to that mare last time. Was held up briefly at a crucial stage last time which may have been the difference. Looks set to get a nice trail and will have his chance to turn the tables. Obviously a great chance himself.

Another Brother (4) relishes the heavy conditions and ran a better race last time to finish 3rd behind Taramaya and Matiano. Made good ground at the finish and should be fitter again here having his third run at the trip. Well weighted down near the minimum and suited by the small field. Capable of causing an upset on his last effort.

Demons Run (1) is a proven galloper who did enough last time at his first run back in Tasmania to finish 4th behind Taramaya. That was only his third run this prep so should strip much fitter and finished close enough to suggest he has a hope with added fitness. Class horse of the field so don’t dismiss.

Next best Really Sure (6) (worked home alright last time, should be fitter again but might need one more).

Verdict

Very hard to split Taramaya (2) and Matiano (3) once again and they should fight it out. Another Brother (4) may give them a run for their money with added fitness while Demons Run (1) looks the only other one capable of figuring in the finish.

Staking Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Matiano (3) for 2 units.


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