Thoroughbred racing this Sunday is in Hobart with 8 races on offer. With rain through the week the track is expected to race as a genuine Heavy surface and with the rail out 6.5m it looks a foregone conclusion that jockeys will be scouting wide throughout. All interest will be on leading trainer Scott Brunton as he searches for five more winners to be the first to train 100 winners in a season.

Race 1 – 11:38 Royal Guide Dogs Tasmania 2YO Maiden (1100 METRES)

Speed Map

Doesn’t look to be a great deal of speed here, although these horses are very lightly raced and can surprise. Look for Thewordsout and Shot Of Irish to be most likely to lead from wide draws after showing early speed at the trials.

Major Players

3. Shot Of Irish: A nicely bred gelding from the Scott Brunton yard making his debut here. Trialled nicely last month when finishing alongside promising Mandela Effect while under a good hold. Has blinkers on for this and drawing the outside barrier should be ideal. Suggest he will take some beating if fancied.

4. Thewordsout: Trialled alright leading into his debut back in December but didn’t do a lot. Spelled afterwards and returned with a soft trial win just over a week ago. Has the winkers on this time and should be able to go forward on that effort. Nicely bred gelding who may have come on after his break and expect a much better showing this time in a potentially easier affair.

8. Oceania Hope: Resumed from a spell on heavy ground in Launceston when finishing down the track behind Egalitarian. Hadn’t trialled leading in so should be much fitter this time around and did place at her second start over this trip behind Geegee Rock’n’run. Drawn wide will help and has race experience over most of these. Has each-way claims.

1. Gee Gees Roughie: Has a fitness edge here with two runs and a trial under his belt this prep. Both runs have been respectable with the latest coming against the older horses. Drawn well and can be in the first half of the field. Has a hope at longer odds.

Watch betting with the trio of first starters – Kel’s Star (7) (looks ready to go after three solid trials with the winkers on), Pingu (2) (trialled behind Thewordsout but that horse had his measure) and Geegees Cash Cow (6) (finished alongside Pingu in his latest trial).

 

Verdict

Like Shot Of Irish (3) and Thewordsout (4) from the trials and suggest they can run well if fancied.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Shot Of Irish for 4 units

Race 2 – 12:15 Royal Lifesaving Tasmania Maiden (1200 METRES)

Speed Map

Expect the pace to be provided by Bloomin’ Late and King Of Saigon. Mighty Hoffa, Royal Riches, Kasuku and Plenty Of Bling all look capable of being near the speed so expect the pace to be genuine, giving them all their chance.

Major Players

7. Flikpix: Was inconvenienced at the start on debut but found the line very strongly to finish a narrow second here over 1100m behind Sidestreet Lad. The extra trip looks in her favour as does the wide draw and she may settle closer with better luck at the start. Was a real eye-catcher on debut and with natural improvement she rates as the one to beat here.

2. Odessa Lad: Ran well here first-up behind Sidestreet Lad and was only a length and a half behind Flikpix despite wanting to lay in on straightening. Also looks suited by the extra journey here and comes up with an advantageous wide barrier. Has run well on heavy ground and regains the services of his regular rider Bulent Muhcu this time. Appeals as a strong each-way chance.

12. Going Purple: Has his first run for Scott Brunton here after four runs in Victoria for Patrick Payne. Has the services of David Pires on top and comes up with a suitably wide barrier to get to the best ground. Victorian form looks good enough for a race like this and has a fitness edge on many of these with three runs already this prep. Big market watch.

3. Royal Riches: Was heavily backed to run an odds-on favourite at his Tasmanian debut a fortnight ago but was rather disappointing when midfield behind Dragonbite. Can be fitter for that effort and worth respecting the market push there but looks to get no favours from Barrier 3 here. Up to this on his Victorian form but will need sharp improvement on his latest effort.

9. Kasuku: A striking filly by Rebel Raider set for her debut here. Won a trial last month in solid time and looked a nice style of horse. Middle draw is reasonable enough but with no rider declared it will be important to see who the stable use. Arguably trialled as well as Flikpix did on the same day so she can perform in this with positive market support.

Next best Kamikaze Force (8) (one run in Victoria for John Sadler was solid enough and trialled alright) and Bloomin’ Late (5)(not bad two starts back and has the speed to take advantage f her wide draw).

Verdict

Flixpix (7) is the obvious from her first up run but Odessa Lad (2) also profiles well. Big watch on Going Purple (12) if he gains a run.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (E/W) Odessa Lad for 1 unit

Back on Betfair BACK (E/W) Going Purple  for 1 unit

Race 3 – 12:50 Wolfblass Maiden/Class 1 (2100 METRES)

Speed Map

Big field here and looks to be plenty of pressure up front. Cloudy Bay, Telfi Hero and Trippin Away can all push forward to be among the leaders, as can Grand Faith, Fearless Filou and White Hawk. Expect enough interest in the front to ensure this is a real slog which plays into the hands of the strongest stayers.

Major Players

3. Bastetani: Improved sharply at her second race start to win here over the mile in impressive fashion. Races like a real stayer so although she gets to this trip quickly at only her third start, she comes off a pair of mile runs which provide a good fitness base to make the jump. Pires goes on and the wet ground shouldn’t be an issue after handing the soft last time. Somewhat unorthodox first prep but from leading stable and this is the logical next step. Appeals as the top pick.

2. Another Brother: A dour, one-paced stayer who is going to enjoy a tough slog over this trip. Three starts ago he ran a solid 2nd behind the promising staying mare Broadway Velvet and should find this much easier. Last couple of runs have been very consistent and time will probably tell that it was no disgrace being well beaten by Our Shanakee last time. Looks just about ready to peak and is a genuine danger.

1. White Hawk: Is tackling the 2100m for the first time but with three runs at a mile and further leading into this he looks to have a great base to attempt it. Worked home into 3rd last time behind Our Shanakee which looks a strong form race for this. The blinkers go back on and his regular rider Bulent Muhcu retains the ride. Placed at all three runs this track and wet ground is alright. Has strong each-way claims here.

11. Fearless Filou: Gets to her right trip now after three runs this prep. Well beaten fifth last time behind Our Shanakee but did settle much further back than she usually does and stayed nearer the inside in the straight. Winkers go on this time so expect her to be put into the race and she managed to run 2nd at both runs over this trip last prep. Wet ground is a bit of a query as she is yet to perform  on it but both tries were over trips short of her best. Expect improvement which gives her an each-way hope.

10. Trippin Away: Battled away last time when 4th behind Bastetani. Gets to 2100m for the first time but appears to be looking for it and has placed over 1800m in Victoria behind the Oaks winner Parthesia. Needs to keep improving but form out of last prep is good enough to say she can be around the mark in this if she runs the trip.

Next best Grand Faith (6) (can go forward and handles heavy ground, distant 3rd behind Broadway Velvet two starts back wasn’t bad, may sneak into a place).

Verdict

Bastetani (3) can go on from a good win last time and win again with Another Brother (2) and White Hawk (1) the obvious dangers.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Bastetani for 4 units

Race 4 – 13:30 Crown Lager Benchmark 72 Hcp (2100 METRES

Speed Map

Look for This Cat Rocks and Ollie’s Gold to go forward here and set a genuine tempo. Gold Librettist can settle closer at this longer trip with all bar Storm Gust capable of taking a midfield position.

Major Players

1. Hugo: The class runner of the race and is ready for this trip now at his fourth run in. Has a very good 2100m record with two wins and a 2nd from his three attempts, all at Launceston. Handles soft ground but not sure he is at his best on very heavy which he likely strikes here. In well with McCarthy’s claim and has better form than these so if he gets through the grand he will be very hard to beat.

6. Hushama: A noted wet-tracker, having won twice at this track on heavy ground. Took on this trip for the first time at her last run and ran a game third on heavy ground in Launceston behind Broadway Velvet. Should be better for that look at the trip and stays down in the weights. With her favoured heavy conditions prevailing she looks set to be right in the finish.

8. Northern Soul: Has his first run for Tegan Keys here after racing on the mainland for Jamie Scott. Did win on heavy ground early in his career and looks to handle the soft but failed badly at his most recent try on a Heavy 9 so a little query there. Pires on is a bonus but this does look a bit harder than what he has been contesting. Watch the market with him.

3. Gold Librettist: Gets to his right trip now after two plain efforts over shorter trips. Loves wet ground and may go forward here as is his usual staying pattern. Carr has a very good record on him and he is up to this class on his best form. Has been beaten a long way at both runs this time in so might need one more but sharp improvement wouldn’t surprise under his preferred conditions.

4. This Cat Rocks: Should be very fit now coming off a heavy track 2150m run where he set a strong tempo in the lead before tiring, followed by a 1400m trial last week. Struggling to produce his best form since he has arrived in the state but over his right trip now and expect his last run to have brought him on. Still needs to improve further but with a comfortable run on speed he may surprise.

Next best Ollie’s Gold (2) (better last time, handles these conditions and gets to his right trip, may need one more but class runner at his best).

Verdict

With a query over Hugo (1) on a heavy surface, maybe the value will lie with the wet-trackers Hushama (6) and Gold Librettist (3).

Betting Strategy 

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Hushama for 1 unit

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Gold Librettist for 1 unit

Race 5 – 14:10 Claremont Chainsaws & Mowers Class 3 Hcp (1200 METRES)

Speed Map

Mel Loves Vodka should find the lead comfortably here ahead of Sebring’s Joy and possibly Kelly’s Diva. With most of these usually settling midfield or worse there looks little pressure on the on-pacers giving them their chance.

Major Players

3. No Money No Honey: Resumes here and should be ready to go after two trials. Created a big impression over the summer carnival with impressive wins over 1400m in easier grade. Only run at this trip was a strong finishing fourth on debut behind Fragment in what was a good quality maiden. Inside draw looks a negative and she will be better over a bit further but a mare with a lot of ability and think she will be primed first-up. Hard to beat.

6. Scrutineer: A very talented mare who ran home very nicely nearer the inside when first-up in Launceston. Both second-up runs have been very good and she has won over this course on heavy ground. This looks slightly easier than her last run and she is drawn a perfect gate for these conditions Will be giving them a start and the tempo may be against but she has strong winning claims.

1. Sebring’s Joy: Was most impressive over this course in C1 grade on firm ground at her first Tasmanian run two starts ago. Wasn’t as good second-up on heavy ground in Launceston which raises a query about here on a very wet track. However, she is drawn the right spot and looks like getting a perfect trail so she is going to get every chance in the run. Inclined to risk on the conditions but if she gets through them she will be hard to run down.

2. Matiano: A strong gelding resuming here off a short break. Rarely runs a bad race and gets through the heavy ground. Doesn’t win often and his form is in easier grade but he did win at his last run in BM68 grade and he looks a horse capable of meeting the challenge of harder grades. Inside barrier looks a negative and he generally takes one run but look for him getting home late.

8. Qui Samer: Dropped back to the 1000m last time and made little impression behind the smart Nunivak. Gets back onto really wet ground this time which he appreciates and the extra trip is suitable. Had been racing consistently before last time and has finished close-up in this grade. Been up a while now so last run is a concern but may bounce back under his favoured conditions.

Next best Mel Loves Vodka (7) (tested this grade but not bad last time and should get the right run in front to give a sight with no weight).

 

Verdict

No Money No Honey (3) looks primed for a big first-up effort but is likely to be short in betting from an inside gate. Maybe go with Scrutineer (6) with the run under her belt and a more favourable barrier.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Scrutineer (6).2 units

Race 6 – 14:50 Goracingtasmania.com.au Class 1 Hcp (1400 METRES)

Speed Map

Farewell Angelina can find the front here and may not have too much pressure once there. Newcomer to the state Clang Thang and the emergencies Only Kiss and Our Queenie can all roll forward but the majority of these like to settle back off the speed. As a result, those settling close to the lead may be advantaged.

Major Players

1. Newts: A smart galloper who has run home well at both starts this prep. Had to make his run through inferior ground back on the inside last time in Launceston and wasn’t too far away at the finish after being heavily backed. Both runs at this track have been very good and he looks very well suited getting out to this longer trip. Has the right form and appears to relish these conditions so with luck in running he looks very hard to hold out.

8. Farewell Angelina: Wasn’t bad first-up in Launceston when she stuck on to be beaten four lengths after looking in pain on the turn. Was only a couple of lengths behind Newts there and also gets back to her home track. Has the blinkers off as she goes to this trip for the first time and with Pires on she gets her chance to dominate this from the front. Likes wet ground and looks to have a big each-way chance here.

2. Mansplaining: Was very strong when winning his maiden first-up in this state. Got to this trip last time and never seemed at home after an incident pre-race but still battled on for 3rd so that run may have more merit than it looks. May be able to settle closer in the run with Carr on but the inside draw may prove a negative. Expect him to bounce back and can win with luck in running.

3. Valerius: Has always promised a bit and finally broke through in Launceston last time over this trip on heavy ground. Obviously rises in grade but gets similar conditions and looks drawn to advantage in the wide barrier. Expect him to strip fitter again and may be capable of settling a bit closer with the lack of pressure up front. Has some scope and has each-way claims in this tougher affair.

11. The Desperate: Ran home well into 2nd a fortnight ago in this grade over this course, clearly beating home Mansplaining. Gets similar conditions again but this looks to have a lot more depth to it. Has developed a nasty habit of missing the start which would put him behind the eight ball in a race of little pressure but has been running home hard and is capable of doing so into a place again.

Next best Special Shot (7) (drops back from the mile when he looked the winner but found one stronger to the line, alright in C2 grade two starts back on heavy ground, drawn right spot so minor claims).

Verdict

Newts (1) is clearly going to be hard to beat here, but interested in Farewell Angelina (8) on an each-way basis with the run in front she looks likely to get.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (E/W) Farewell Angelina for 3 units

Race 7 – 15:26 Luxbet.com Class 5 Hcp (1000 METRES)

Speed Map

Nunivak looks capable of driving through to lead here but outside of Concentrate and Rearview, the rest of these are capable of racing near the lead if they begin well.

Major Players

4. Nunivak: Returned as the Nunivak of old first-up over this course a fortnight ago with a sustained display of speed to lead all the way. This is harder but gets a lovely weight drop to compensate and he has won here on very heavy ground so the likely wetter conditions shouldn’t pose an issue. The inside draw is his biggest obstacle but with Pires on and the early speed to cross most if not all the field he should get to the right spot. Looks hard to beat again.

2. Angel Of The Abyss: A very classy filly who went through the Autumn 3yo series in impressive fashion with two wins and a 2nd. Has won here over this short course and bolted in last time in Launceston which was her first look at a heavy track. Has the speed to be forward and well drawn but up in the weights against older horses here. Appeals as the main danger.

7. Tough Missile: Racing in excellent form with two wins and two seconds from her past four starts. Ran home gamely last time behind Nunivak but was no match. Has been handling soft ground better recently but very heavy conditions were her nemesis earlier in her career so some query there. Gets right down in the weights and should be handy to the speed so if she gets through the going she has an each-way hope.

3. Gee Gee Sun Valley: Also resumes here with two trials under her belt. Generally races well fresh and placed in her only look at a heavy track. Both runs over 1000m have been very good and he placed at his only try in this grade at this track. Is in the finish more often than not so while this is tough she has some hope.

6. Seajamm: Resumes here with two trials under her belt so suggest she will be right to the mark for this short trip. Has a very good record fresh and has placed first-up at this track in the past. Has never really seen a genuinely wet track so the conditions are a query. Gets in light with Barr’s claim and is drawn the right part of the track which will help. Rarely runs a bad race so expect her to be around the mark.

Next best True Lady’s Man (9) (not sure he is suited back at this trip and this is tough but goes forward, drawn the outside and has won at Cranbourne on very heavy ground).

Verdict

Nunivak (4) looks to be back and happy to go with Pires and stick with him over his stablemate Angel Of The Abyss (2).

Betting Strategy 

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Nunivak for 8 units

Race 8 – 16:05 Royal Hobart Hospital Research Foundation Benchmark 62 Hcp (1600 METRES)

Speed Map

Expect Give Us A Winner to roll to the front here with Orange River up handy and they may be able to dictate the pace under little pressure. Glistening Star and maybe You Didn’t can take a position just behind the speed but most of these prefer to settle back off the pace.

Major Players

4. Orange River: Steps up to the mile after an impressive win at her first start in the state here over 1400m. Was suited sitting handy to a slow pace but was very strong at the finish and won by a clear margin. Looks like getting a similar run this time and has won over the mile in Victoria, albeit in a small field. Failed on a Heavy 10 earlier this prep which is a concern but has placed on Heavy 8. Leading chance if she reproduces her last effort.

1. Mulley’s Idol: Was a convincing winner over the mile two starts ago in Launceston on heavy ground before failing to get into the race last week in Devonport. Better suited back onto the turf and won his only start over this course back in January. Wet ground is no issue and McCarthy’s claim will help. Expecting sharp improvement under these conditions and has a big hope.

2. You Didn’t: Wasn’t bad first-up here over 1100m before finishing off alright in the worst going last time behind Orange River. Ready for this trip now, over which he has placed at both tries, and he hasn’t missed a place on heavy ground in three starts. Drawn out should be a bonus and all of his three wins have come here on his home track. Just about ready to show his best and shouldn’t be underestimated.

5. Reann’s Diamond: Has had a short break since running a close 2nd to Secrets She Has but remains at the mile here. Last five starts have all been very good, including four over this trip. Has won off a month’s break previously so while her fitness is some concern on very wet ground she may still be capable. If she is right to go then she has genuine winning claims.

6. Col’s Hero: Ran a reasonable third last time behind Orange River in what is clearly good form for this. Getting to a mile doesn’t look as suitable as it is for some of these but worth noting he has placed over this trip in limited tries. Heavy ground has proven an issue for him in the past but is capable of handling soft. Should be thereabouts at the business end as usual.

Next best Glistening Star (7) (nice win in C1 grade at this track last time, this is harder and first-go mile but not the worst).

Verdict

Even race to finish. Orange River (4) looks well placed to win again but a number of these can win without surprising.

Betting Strategy 

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Orange River for 2 units


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