TASRacing: Hobart, Sunday 18th February 2018

Racing returns to Hobart on Sunday with an 8 race card and the rail in the 7m position after two feature meetings here last weekend. The highlight is the last race where the mares Galeocerdo, Angel Of The Abyss and Tough Missile drop back to benchmark grade after taking on the feature sprints for the females, while promising gallopers Somerset and Thewordsout are sure to have their supporters in C1 grade in race 4.

Race 1 – 13:02 Elwick Functions and Events Maiden (1100 METRES)

Speed Map

Pinkeyes Pride and Grave Digger look the leaders as they were on Hobart Cup day and should settle ahead of A Matter Of Time, Nahla and possibly Berbent. Gee Gees Liberty has an awkward draw so Newitt will need to decide whether to go forward or back to get in.

Major Players

10. Gee Gees Liberty enjoyed a nice run in behind the leaders last Friday when fresh and battled away reasonable well for 3rd behind two potentially promising horses in Treeconi and Banca Bet. Might be fitter for that effort and finds a weaker affair this time. Rarely far from the winner and Newitt takes the ride but will have his work cut out from the outside draw. Deserves to be top pick but will need luck in running.

8. Nahla strung together a couple of solid 2nd placings before racing forward in a fast run race last week and fading to finish midfield behind Rusty Devil. Comes back sharply in trip which is a query on the back-up but does have the speed to put herself into the race. Wide draw may be tricky with a bit of speed drawn underneath her but looks one of the better chances.

3. Grave Digger is slowly improving and stuck on alright last start on Cup day when racing down on the rail which proved to be inferior as the day went on. Showing good early speed to be racing near the lead so should get across from his wider draw. Not sure back to 1100m is what he wants at this stage but he can give a sight on speed.

5. Zipponet dropped back to 1200m last start and ran home nicely out wide to finish 2nd behind Negreanu on Cup day. Was potentially flattered getting to the right part of the track there and not sure coming back further in trip to 1100m is what he wants. Drawn out and likely gets right back early again so while this isn’t a difficult race he will need to go on from last time to run them down out wide.

2. Berbent has been showing better speed over 1400m recently and running some reasonable races, including a 3rd behind The Decider two starts ago. Not sure the drop back to 1100m is what he is looking for but with his improved early speed, an inside draw and Voorham’s claim he may be able to drive through and box seat. Might not be sharp enough over this distance but could get the right run to give him place claims.

Next best: Jewels (7) (resumes from a spell without a trial, wasn’t hopeless at first Tasmanian prep so respect any market support).

Verdict

Gee Gees Liberty (10) gets her chance to break through again but wary of taking short odds from that awkward barrier.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – Gee Gees Liberty for 2 units

Race 2 – 13:37 Trchobart.com.au Class 1 Hcp (1100 METRES)

Speed Map

Lads Curfew may lead here from Ruthless Lover although Gee Gee Cats and Airlie Magic are capable of kicking up from their inside draws. Glory Blaze may try and push on out wide while Lyonesse tries to slot in from her wide draw.

Major Players

2. Airlie Magic resumes here after a recent trial where she ran 2nd behind Wednesday night winner Breathtaking. Was only beaten a length over this course first-up last time in and ran a narrow 2nd at her only other run here. Drawn to get a nice run on speed and while she is up in the weights she is a proven weight carrier. Finds a nice race to kick off in and should be hard to beat.

1. Treeconi looks to have ironed out a few of the issues that plagued his first couple of runs with his past couple being much better. Was impressive on Derby Day when he charged down the middle of the track to beat Banca Bet comfortably but may have been flattered by the pattern of the day. This isn’t the hardest C1 to try and string two in a row in and loses nothing with Pires taking the ride. Will be running on and is one of the better chances.

10. Ruthless Lover has been very good at his past couple, with a close 2nd to Pompon followed by a game 3rd on Derby Day behind Manilenya when racing three wide outside the leaders. Drawn out again but shouldn’t have too much trouble finding a position near the lead and this looks easier than his last run. Has only won one race in 30 starts so hard to have much confidence but expect him to give a big sight again and be in the finish.

7. Lyonesse is another coming from maiden grade, after she finally broke through at start number 31 to defeat Miss Smith and Isere in Launceston. Newitt sticks with her but she draws a wide gate which thwarted her multiple times before her first win. This is obviously harder but doesn’t know how to run a bad race and can win again with luck in running.

3. George’s Gambol should be ready to go here first-up with three recent Longford trials under his belt since the start of the year. Has placed twice fresh and has also placed in both runs over 1100m earlier in his career. Took a long time to win a maiden and needs luck from back in the field but some of his maiden form reads pretty well looking back so have a lot of respect for any positive market support.

Next best: Lads Curfew (4) (failed here first-up but won second-up last prep and drawn for a good run so can improve).

Verdict

Airlie Magic (2) looks well placed here fresh but have plenty of respect for last start winner Treeconi (1) in what is a tricky race

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – Airlie Magic for 2 units

 

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – Treeconi for 1 unit

Race 3 – 14:12 Great Northern Super Crisp 2YO Maiden (1000 METRES)

Speed Map

Gee Gee Queen Bee was ridden back last week but expect her to show her usual speed to find the front here. Cape Cardinal has enough speed to try and lead if he backs up from Wednesday, while Gee Gee Ladybird and Gee Gees Wild One should settle in the first four also.

Major Players

9. Gee Gee Queen Bee is a very fast filly who was ridden quietly in the Elwick Stakes last week when slightly slow to begin from her outside draw. Loomed up on the turn but didn’t finish off in what was clearly the strongest 2yo race of the season so far. Was soft late in her 900m debut behind Gee Gee Secondover but he is top class and she beat the rest comfortably. Last bit is definitely a concern but expect her to lead them up and be hard to run down.

8. Gee Gee Ladybird was beaten a long way by Gee Gee Queen Bee in her first trial before leading and winning comfortably at her most recent outing. Looks like racing near the lead with the speed she has shown at the trials and the booking of Newitt looks a positive lead. Watch betting but she appeals as the leading danger to the favourite.

2. Gee Gee Born Free resumes from a short spell here without having trialled. Was comfortably beaten in 3rd behind Gee Gee Secondover and Gee Gee Queen Bee at his only race start but raced three wide in the small field and found the line quite well to beat the other two clearly. Inside draw should allow him to get a nice run in behind them and if stays in touch early he could be hard to hold out at the finish.

1. Cape Cardinal showed good speed to lead on Wednesday night in the Magic Millions 2yo but was beaten off rather easily and beaten a long way. This is far easier and dropping back to 1000m looks suitable. Yet to finish a race off but has the speed to be in the firing line and may improve sharply here on the quick back-up.

5. Gee Gees Wild One showed good speed on debut but was forced to race three wide without cover and understandably faded behind Gee Gee Mr Paul over 1200m. Drop back to 1000m looks suitable and while he is again drawn wide he might have more luck getting across. Had trialled well enough previously to suggest he has each way claims here with the right run.

Next best: Geegees First Lady (10) (improving with race experience and rails draw should help) and Gee Gees Magic Man (4) (shows a bit of ability but still very new and might need another run or two).

Verdict

Gee Gee Queen Bee (9) is sure to be well fancied and will likely look the winner on turning but the last bit could be a tough watch for her supporters. Gee Gee Born Free (2) wasn’t bad on debut and might run a race at odds.

Staking Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – 1 unit to win and 2 units to place on Gee Gee Born Free.

Race 4 – 14:47 Fundracing @ the Races Class 1 Hcp (1400 METRES)

Speed Map

Miss Scandilous will probably run to the front here with Modern Dane potentially working forward for Pires if she begins better than last time. Thewordsout, Bounce Back and Foreeva can all race near the speed also.

Major Players

3. Somerset is a promising mare who won very impressively here on debut before having every chance in Launceston and just failing to run down Go For It who had the right run back on the inside. May be better suited returning to her home track and gets weight relief this time with Voorham’s claim. Will settle back in the field from her wide draw so will need luck in running but this looks a bit easier than last time and she appeals as top pick.

1. Thewordsout finally broke through for his maiden win last time in Launceston in what looked a relatively weak race but worth noting the second-placed Treeconi came out and won impressively last Friday. Getting back to 1400m looks very suitable and should get a gun run for Baker from his inside draw. Races well here and finds a C1 without a whole lot of depth. Definite chance.

5. Modern Dane has run quite well at all three starts since joining the Adrian Duggan stable, finishing within 3 lengths of the winner on every occasion despite having little luck in running. Battled on well despite racing wide two starts ago and struggled for clear room last time after blowing the start and settling back. David Pires hops on and won her maiden on her over this course back in October. Can go forward and is racing better than her form reads so she can run a race at longer odds.

2. Classic Western has been racing well since being ridden off the speed. Got home solidly last time behind Manilenya and while this is his first try at 1400m it may be what he is looking for now he is relaxing behind the speed. Newitt stays with him and should get a soft run from his nice draw. Rarely too far away and can run home into the finish again.

6. Gee Gee Musicmaker has been running solid if unspectacular races in this grade for quite some time after breaking her maiden back in October. Beat Classic Western home narrowly last week when working home through the middle so that lines up ok in this and races well here on her home track. Has been up quite a while and goes to 1400m for the first time but in light with Graham’s claim and can be thereabouts again.

Next best: Miss Scandilous (8) (hasn’t been far away in four Tasmanian runs and makes her own luck on speed so expect a similar showing again).

Verdict

Somerset (3) has made a great start to her career and will be hard to beat but will need luck in running. Thewordsout (1) should get the right run behind them to make the leap from his maiden win, while Modern Dane (5) appeals as a genuine improver at longer odds.

Staking Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – 1 unit each way on Modern Dane.

Race 5 – 15:24 Tasracing.com.au Benchmark 62 Hcp (1600 METRES)

Speed Map

No genuine leader here. Sentry Duty generally settles near the front with Go For It And Mulley’s Idol capable of taking up forward positions. The rest of these prefer to settle behind the speed so the opportunity is there for those who land on speed to get a soft run.

Major Players

6. Mulley’s Idol got to the mile here two starts ago and ran a solid 4th behind Sentry Duty before finishing midfield behind Cheers Chappy last time when back to 1400m. Has won two races over this trip so looks suited getting back to the mile and Newitt takes the ride from gate 1. Should get every possible chance in the run and is clearly up to this grade at his best. Looks a leading chance in a very even race.

4. Go For It is starting to work through his grades, having won his maiden and then a C1 at his past two starts over 1400m. Has had every chance in both wins but without a great deal of speed in this he may get a similar run working across from his wide draw. Goes to 1600m for the first time and this is harder again but is an improving type who may step up again.

1. Sentry Duty won well over this course three starts ago with 61kg in this grade but gets a tougher ask here with the steadier of 62.5kg. Last run was good enough in BM82 company and will appreciate the drop in grade this time. Should get a good run on speed which will give him his chance but the big weight is an obvious concern.

3. Catalyst Fire was well supported in Launceston after a good first-up 3rd but had no early speed at all and never got into the race. She was quite disappointing on face value but her late sectionals were exceptional so maybe there was more merit to the run than it appears. Her best form is very good for this, including a 2nd over this course in BM72 grade last prep behind Player One when a short priced favourite. Extra trip should suit and she might go around at good value if you can forgive her last run.

5. Olly’s A Star is also dropping back in grade from the BM82 race over this course won by Beaufort Lad, where he ran 6th and finished a couple of lengths behind Sentry Duty. Has been up for quite a while now and is consistently being beaten a few lengths so patience is starting to run out with him after looking a very promising miler earlier in his career. Might have reached his mark but generally runs well when down in this grade and weighted alright. May bounce back.

Next best: Matiano (7) (outclassed in the Thomas Lyons but didn’t run a bad race, has only won 2 of 28 and won’t be an easy ride for Barr but clearly has the ability if his mind is on the job).

Verdict

Very even race here with many winning chances. Mulley’s Idol (6) looks set to get the right run to feature in his return to his favourite 1600m trip and appeals on that basis.

Staking Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – Mulley’s Idol for 2 units.

Race 6 – 16:05 Schweppes Benchmark 64 Hcp (2100 METRES)

Speed Map

No speed on paper in this, much like the staying event on Cup day. Volcan De Fuego and King Manu are the logical ones to roll forward again while Eight Capes can go forward at long odds. Lovely Lady and White Hawk can also box seat so they may push on if the tempo is slow.

Major Players

6. Wyuna  is likely to be scratched after running a good 2nd in the Night Cup on Wednesday night but should she take her place in the field she is likely to run a deserving favourite.

2. Volcan De Fuego improved sharply here on Cup day when he went forward from his outside draw and scored a strong win over this course in similar grade. Had every chance given the slow tempo of the race but expect him to get a similar run this time should he begin well from his inside gate. No reason he can’t improve again being early in his preparation and he looks a good chance to win again.

1. King Manu ran a similar race to Volcan De Fuego on Cup day, crossing the field to lead from his wide draw before taking a sit. Looked the winner when he came hard on the outside in the straight but was outstayed by Vulcan De Fuego and had to settle for 2nd. Should work across into a similar spot again but the last bit seems to be a slight query. Obvious chance again.

5. Striking Prospect got out to this trip for the first time last start and bolted in despite racing wide throughout in Launceston. That looks to have been a weak Maiden/C1 so this is a genuine step up in grade but he ran solid time and is clearly open to further improvement. Drawn out suits and Maskiell is riding in good form. On the up and a definite chance to measure up.

3. White Hawk has always promised to be a handy stayer and goes to 2100m for the first time, albeit quite quickly at this prep being just his 3rd run. First-up run was very solid before finishing last behind Player One last time over the mile. Newitt stays with him and he is proven at 1880m so suggest he will run the trip but he might need one more. Up to this grade and can feature if he is fit enough so watch betting.

6. Lovely Lady went to 2100m for the first time last start and ran a solid 3rd behind Vulcan De Fuego. Think she was suited by the slow tempo there but can improve with the run over the trip under her belt and this won’t necessarily be run any quicker. Hard to see her turn the tables on the two who beat her home last time but can get a good run just behind the speed and has place claims.

Next best: Sudden Shock (7) (crying out for this trip but last run was plain and this is a harder race).

Verdict

Hard to go past Volcan De Fuego (2) after a strong win on Cup day and he can improve again with that run under his belt.

Staking Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – Volcan De Fuego for 3 units.

Race 7 – 16:45 Goracingtasmania.com.au Benchmark 64 Hcp (1400 METRES)

Speed Map

Miss Two Pairs looks the leader if she backs up from Wednesday but she wasn’t overly keen to hold the front there. Solomon’s Song, Schillie Billie, Turtles Nest, Biscay Barb and Little Elsa all like to race on speed so there might be some jostling for forward positions there which can contribute to improve the tempo.

Major Players

2. Axion has been kept fresh since a very good win on Devonport Cup day and that should suit staying at 1400m. Versatile type who can race forward or back as required which will be ideal from his good draw. Newitt stays with him and this isn’t much harder than the two BM62s he has won at his past three starts. Always runs well and looks a leading chance once again.

1. Biscay Barb dropped back to this trip last time in Launceston and ran a very solid 4th from midfield in a race run to suit the on-pacers. Probably wants a little further than this but drawing out suits him as he can roll forward and sum up the pace drawn inside him. In well with the claim and nearly beat Axion a few runs ago so his form is clearly up to these. Will need luck slotting in but if he does he has very strong each way claims.

3. Solomon’s Song got back on track last time in Launceston when racing on speed and sticking on for 3rd behind Flying Geepee. This doesn’t look a whole lot harder and he again draws for a good run from the inside draw. Winning strike rate is quite poor which is a concern but should be in the firing line for a long way and be somewhere in the finish again.

8. Turtles Nest backs up from Wednesday night where he finished down the track behind Boltoutoftheblue. Beat home Solomon’s Song the start prior and he nearly beat Our Shanakee over this course back in November when he enjoyed a good run on speed. Might get a similar run this time and any sting out of the track would be a plus. Has his usual each way claims again.

4. Leconte hasn’t raced since being well backed on Devonport Cup day but disappointing over 1880m behind Real Messi. Form prior was good in similar races to this and ties in well with some of the better chances such as Axion and Biscay Barb. Generally runs well fresh and drawn for a great smother in behind them. Has knockout claims with the right run.

Next best: Col’s Hero (6) (continues to run well in slightly easier grade but will have to go back from the wide draw and has only won 3 of 38).

Verdict

A number of chances again but lean to Biscay Barb (1) who can roll forward here and give a big sight on speed on an each way basis.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – 2 units each way on Biscay Barb.

Race 8 – 17:25 TRC Hobart Benchmark 72 Hcp (1100 METRES)

Speed Map

Galeocerdo should drive through and lead from her inside draw but the filly Geegees Trendsetter has plenty of speed of her own. Expect them to control the race at a fast clip ahead of Angel Of The Abyss and West On Broadway, with Gee Gees Blondie having some work to do to get in from her wide draw.

Major Players

1. Galeocerdo backs up here after leading in the Bow Mistress but capitulating in the straight to run last. Drops back to 1100m which is clearly her favourite trip with two wins and a close 2nd behind Gee Gee Double Dee in her three runs over this course this prep. In well with Voorham’s claim but rails draw may be problematic if she is slow to begin like she can be. Last run is a concern but will be very hard to run down if she bounces back to her best.

2. Angel Of The Abyss is a quality mare who was right in the market first-up but disappointing in the Lady Lynette behind Gee Gee Double Dee and Galeocerdo. Previous form had been very good for a race of this nature with wins in open 3yo grade last season and she wasn’t far away in this grade first-up last time in when favourite. Needs to improve on her fresh run but very capable at her best.

7. Tough Missile ran a reasonable 5th in the Lady Lynette before covering ground in the Bow Mistress and battling away alright when outclassed. Has the blinkers off coming back to 1100m and has won three races over this course. Suited here getting right down in the weights and has genuine each way claims.

8. Boart is racing in career best form with a dominant win over this course in C3 grade followed by a game 2nd here last week in this grade behind Red Spyder over 1200m. Back to 1100m suits and he ran 2nd behind Galeocerdo over this course earlier this prep when meeting her worse at the weights. Outside gate is very tricky but if he gets in he can run on into the finish.

6. Geegee Trendsetter is a fast 3yo filly who likes to lead but will have Galeocerdo to contend with up front. Led up the Carbine Club last start but tired late to run 4th behind Gee Gee Lanett. In on the minimum which gives her a chance and can give a sight if on-pacers are suited.

Next best: Taramaya (handy mare who hasn’t placed in three first-up runs but is up to this grade and can be running on late).

Verdict

Galeocerdo (1) was beaten a long way last week but loves this shorter trip and gets her chance to bounce back.

Staking Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – Galeocerdo for 3 units.


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