TASRacing: Hobart, Friday 9th February 2018

Hobart hosts its traditional Derby Day twilight meeting this Friday with the first of 8 races set to kick off at 3:57pm. The $150,000 Group 3 Carlton Draught Bow Mistress Trophy is the highlight with local mares Life On The Wire and Gee Gee Double Dee favoured in betting ahead of Victorian Deja Blue. Darren Weir has a strong hand in the $150,000 Listed Schweppes Tasmanian Derby with Civil Disobedience and Wolfendale, while gun filly Gee Gee Lanett looks set to run a short-priced favourite in the $30,000 Carbine Club 3yo.


Race 1 – 15:57 Hazell Brothers Maiden (1100 METRES)

Speed Map

Bellistic Chill should be able to hold the lead here off the inside draw with potentially Seize Them All and Gee Gees Liberty taking up forward positions. The rest of these generally settle midfield or worse but with many of these lightly raced the opportunity is there to go forward if they begin well.

Major Players

9. Gee Gees Liberty: A handy filly who has run well without much luck at all three runs this prep. Has been freshened since her last effort which should suit her coming back to 1100m. Drawn ideally to race forward or back as required and Carr sticks with her. Comes through stronger races than the rest of these and she appeals as top pick.

5. Treeconi: Came back to this trip last week in Launceston with a host of gear changes and ran much better when second behind Thewordsout. May be better suited ridden quiet like he was there and should appreciate getting onto his home track for the first time. This race isn’t much harder so if he can reproduce that effort he will be one of the better chances in this.

2. Negreanu: A newcomer to the Scott Brunton stable who has had three runs in Victoria for Hayes and Dabernig. Debut effort when midfield at solid enough for a race of this nature and trialled quite nicely in slow time behind Banca Boy leading into this. Watch betting but suggest he can show up in this if fancied.

7. Banca Bet: A debutant and also from the Scott Brunton yard. Caught the eye at the trials when she worked home nicely in solid time behind Black Jaguar, who was an impressive maiden winner last week. Finds a reasonably vulnerable race to kick off in but some concern Pires is riding the stablemate. Looks to have ability so can entertain if she receives market support.

8. Bellistic Chill: Backs up from her debut run last week in Launceston where she showed some speed but was well held in the finish. Has blinkers on this time and draws the inside gate which may be a big help at this stage of her career. Trials prior to her first start were quite good so with race experience under her belt she could improve sharply here.

Next best Huff’n’toff (10) (newcomer to Team Wells, doesn’t have any form in Victoria to recommend but respect any market support).

Verdict

Gee Gees Liberty (9) looks to get her chance here. Watch the market around the Brunton newcomers Negreanu (2) and Banca Bet (7), while Bellistic Chill (8) is the improver at odds.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – Gee Gees Liberty for 3 Units

Race 2 – 16:34 New Town Plaza Maiden (1400 METRES)

Speed Map

Speed may come from out wide with Pinkeyes Pride and Elwick Eddie while Berbent may try and hold the lead from his inside draw. Kent Street, Shackley’s Hill and Nahla potentially find nice positions on speed.

Major Players

9. Nahla: Has improved recently to run second at her past two starts, behind Gone Girl and Go For It who both went on to win at their next start. Has the ability to go forward which should see her find a good spot near the lead in this and also placed twice on this track last season. Looks to be getting the hang of things and has strong each way claims.

2. His Nibs: Has been quite consistent this preparation and his past two runs when dropped back to 1200m have been very solid. Was left with too much to do last start from last but found the line well and looks ready to return to 1400m now. Draws the outside which looks a major obstacle but he may appreciate the racing room. Will need luck slotting in but with the right run he looks a major chance.

3. Shackley’s Hill: Is slowly improving this prep and worked home quite nicely last time when third behind Geegees Cash Cow, beating home His Nibs. Previous run at 1350m was alright so with a soft run from an inside draw the 1400m may suit. Only has to go on from his last run to have each way claims again.

6. Kent Street: Battled away well on debut after racing wide then probably wasn’t suited back on the inside last time when held up behind a tiring horse. Getting to 1400m looks suitable and should improve with blinkers on for the first time. Drawn to get a great run on speed and he is capable of being in the finish of this at longer odds.

7. Rusty Devil: An interesting runner. A colt by Medaglia D’oro formerly trained in NSW by Peter and Paul Snowden, he was bought for $150,000 as a yearling but was well held at his only run at Kembla Grange. Has caught the eye at the trials in winning his last two over 1400m, especially his most recent effort when he ran down Matiano. Watch betting but he may show up fresh.

Next best Teddy’s Fault (4) (found the line well last time behind Go For It and Newitt goes on, chance at longer odds).

Verdict

Nahla (9) is knocking on the door and looks well placed here. Kent Street (6) can improve with blinkers, while Rusty Devil (7) is a newcomer to keep an eye on.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – Nahla for 2 units

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – Kent Street for 1 unit

Race 3 – 17:14 The Mercury BM82 Hcp (1600 METRES)

Speed Map

Doesn’t look too much pressure up front in the small field here. Sentry Duty may lead while Geegees Brightstar can push forward from his wide gate. Zatacla may take advantage of blinkers and an inside draw to settle closer this time.

Major Players

3. Beaufort Lad: Comes here off a good 2nd behind Speed Force in Launceston where he beat home a number of the rivals he will face here. Stays at this trip which is clearly his favourite, having won four of his eight starts, and while he hasn’t won here in three tries he has a good second and an open company 4th in his form. Lack of tempo may be against but he looks one of the leading chances in an even race.

1. Geegees Brightstar: Ran reasonably well here a fortnight ago when dropping back to 1400m and looks much better suited returning to the mile here. Interestingly hasn’t won here on his home track in ten starts but is twice placed and has won three of his five runs over this distance. Should roll forward to overcome the wide draw and is in well after the claim. Has definite winning claims.

5. Sentry Duty: Won over this course two starts ago in much easier grade before failing last time when dropping back to 1400m. Better placed back to 1600m and has a win over this course over Our Shanakee earlier this prep. Should get a good run near the lead on the minimum weight and has solid each way claims.

7. Zatacla: A handy galloper racing without luck, being blocked for a run in the straight at his past couple of starts in Launceston over 1600m. Previous run was good over this course and he may take up a much closer position in the run with no weight and the blinkers back on. May need luck getting away from the inside in the small field but very capable at his best and can improve at odds.

4. Player One: Had been ticking over fairly well before bobbing up at huge odds last time to win over this trip in Launceston in BM64 grade. Finished close-up over this course behind Sentry Duty and Zatacla previously which ties in well here and proven in this grade on his best form. This is harder but will appreciate the big weight drop and has won five races over this course. If he goes on from his last run he has genuine winning claims in this.

Next best Geegees Soprano (2) (ran home well last time here over 1400m, 1600m on turf still remains a query but can run on if they go too hard).

Verdict

Very even race. Beaufort Lad (3) is ready to win but the tempo may be against. Geegees Brightstar (1) is very honest and gets the right run again on speed.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – Beaufort Lad for 1 unit

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – Geegees Brightstar for 1 unit

Race 4 – 17:49 Carbine Club 3YO Hcp (1100 METRES)

Speed Map

Good pressure here with all of these preferring to race near the lead. Geegee Trendsetter may try and cross them from out wide but has plenty of speed drawn underneath her in Uber Ed, Gee Gee Lanett, Ilfracombe and Rubinic, meaning this could become quite a tactical affair.

Major Players

3. Gee Gee Lanett: A classy filly who comes back to her own age after finishing an unlucky last in the Sky Racing Stakes last start at WFA. Rarely far away in this grade and very well suited by the set weights conditions. Ran a narrow second over this course behind Derasa earlier this prep and this looks easier. Has clearly better form than the rest of these and will be very hard to beat.

1. Uber Ed: Resumes from a spell here but has been in work for quite a while, having trialled twice with the first back in early December. Showed plenty of talent in two starts as a 2yo, including a well held second behind Gee Gee Lanett here over 1200m. Awkwardly drawn but despite leading in both runs he has been ridden quietly at the trials, so he may be versatile enough to find a spot depending on the tempo. Logical danger to the favourite.

4. Geegee Trendsetter: Has had a break since given a bold sight in front only to be run down in the shadows of the post by Il Regalo in Launceston. Gave a great display from the front when successful here first-up over 1200m and was reasonably competitive against the best of her age last season. Has loads of early speed so she can give a big sight if she crosses from the outside but if she gets caught wide she will have the job ahead of her.

9. Ilfracombe: A lightly raced filly facing clearly her toughest test here. Broke her maiden over this course two starts ago in good time before being held up at a crucial stage last time when 4th in C1 grade. Back in trip probably suits and should get a good run near the lead from her inside draw. Doubt she is up to this grade just yet but has definite place claims.

5. Rubinic: Resumes from a spell here with a trial under her belt. Won twice here through the winter, including once in open grade against her own age, before failing at her only run in BM62 company last prep. This class is likely to test her but well drawn so looks another with a place chance.

Next best Remigny (8) (pulled up last start when sore, previous form was solid, might appreciate good tempo to be running on late, place claims).

Verdict

Impossible to go past Gee Gee Lanett (3) but she is likely to go around at odds-on. Uber Ed (1) is a horse with talent if you are looking to bet outside the favourite, while Geegee Trendsetter (4) may give them something to catch in front.

Betting Strategy 

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – Gee Gee Lanett for 6 units

Race 5 – 18:22 Michael Kent BM72 Hcp (1200 METRES)

Speed Map

The speed should be on here with The Captain and Apriano capable of going at a fast pace to get across in front of Mel Loves Vodka. Doesn’t look much pressure outside of potentially Weekend Whisky so the on-pacers should get their chance.

Major Players

1. The Captain: A very fast galloper who continues to run extremely consistently, with three wins and three seconds in his last six starts. Best ridden for speed and Barr has had good success with him so expect to see him running along up front again. Loves firm ground and the 1200m is his right trip so he appeals as a logical leading chance.

2. Love Magic: Resumes from a spell here but both of his fresh runs in Tasmania have been very good. Proven in this grade and Pires taking over the reins looks a good lead. Should appreciate a genuine tempo and has never been beaten more than three lengths in eight Tasmanian runs. Expect him to get a suck run from his inside draw and that makes him one of the better chances.

3. Apriano: Has finally found form this preparation and is flying, winning both his recent runs in Launceston. Teagan Voorham sticks with him to keep his weight relatively light and although he is drawn wide he should be able to work across outside The Captain. Comes off a fast run race last time and expect him to be right in the mix for a long way again.

7. Winston Wolfe: Was run off his feet first-up behind the flying mare Galeocerdo but he ran on quite well after settling a long way from the leader. 1200m arguably suits better and he should appreciate being smothered away from his inside draw. Will be finishing hard and can swamp them if the on-pacers get it wrong.

4. Red Spyder: Made his Tasmanian debut here four weeks ago but clipped heels when he had no luck getting clear running in the straight and finished down the track as a result. Did enough there to suggest he is immediately up to this grade and his Victorian form implies similar. Likely to settle back so will need luck but with clear running he can hit the line hard with a knockout chance.

Next best Weekend Whisky (5) (sharply back in trip from 2100m in only four weeks so expect he may be beaten for speed, will need luck from the draw but continues to improve and isn’t the worst).

Verdict

Another even affair. The Captain (1) continues to run well and will take catching here but wants genuinely firm ground. Stablemate Love Magic (2) draws for a nice trail and looks the danger.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – The Captain for 2 units

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – Love Magic for 2 units

Race 6 – 18:54 Schweppes Tasmanian Derby (2200 METRES)

Speed Map

Expect Kugelblitz to take up the running and he can dictate terms under no real pressure. Overplay will likely settle handy with the rest of these generally happy to settle midfield or worse.

Major Players

1. Civil Disobedience: Comes here off three 2000m runs in Victoria, the latest two being a win and a third at Flemington. From the Weir stable who would have a good handle on this race with the stablemate Wolfendale winning the Hobart Guineas a fortnight ago. Beat home Chain Of Fools about three lengths last time who ran 4th in the Tasmanian Guineas without blinkers so the form lines up alright. Clearly has the strongest form in the race and deserves to start a short-priced favourite.

2. Wolfendale: Made the trip down a fortnight ago successfully to win the Hobart Guineas here over 2100m. Was shuffled back in the run but was very strong through the line when challenged late and should enjoy the slightly extra trip. Doubt he has the class of the stablemate but is a genuine stayer and appeals as the clear danger.

7. Kugelblitz: A son of Savabeel who has only had two career starts in Victoria. Got to 2030m last time and gave a dashing display in front in a Werribee maiden, winning by nearly four lengths. Suggest this is a big leap in grade but Damien Oliver takes the ride and may be able to dictate in front here. Untapped and might be the knockout runner.

4. Double You Tee: Racing very well, running on for a narrow second in the Tasmanian Guineas before coming home hard out wide to finish second in the Hobart Guineas. The extra 100m shouldn’t be too difficult but was outstayed by Wolfendale last time and isn’t particularly bred to run it. Looks to have solid each-way claims again.

5. Pennstock: Failed in the Tasmanian Guineas on softer ground but was much better last time in the Hobart Guineas, running home from last to finish third. No reason he won’t stretch out to 2200m off that effort but never really threatened the winner Wolfendale so hard to see him turning the tables there. Prefer him on a place basis.

Next best Overplay (3) (should get a good run near the lead but others may be better suited by the longer trip than him).

Verdict

Civil Disobedience (1) has the right form and looks the winner but will be a very short quote. Stablemate Wolfendale (2) was very strong in the Hobart Guineas and looks the obvious danger if you don’t like taking short odds.

Staking Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – Wolfendale for 1 unit

Race 7 – 19:25 Carlton Draught Bow Mistress Trophy (1200 METRES)

Speed Map

Expect Galeocerdo to hold the front from her inside draw and run them along quickly but she can blow the start which would change the shape of the race. Balancing Act can push forward from her wide draw, with Deja Blue and Life On The Wire looking to settle handy. Tiszo Wicked can be forward while Gee Gee Double Dee should get a nice trail.

Major Players

4. Life On The Wire: Returns to her home state after winning twice in Victoria in mares grade over 1400m. Brief freshen should help her get over the trip there and come back to 1200m, a distance she won over in both starts earlier this prep. Has the speed to work across to a handy position from her wide draw and all three runs here on her home track have been very good. Looks well placed and appeals as top pick.

2. Gee Gee Double Dee: Racing in super form, winning her past three starts at this track. Scored a solid win over this course three starts ago beating Teriki but her latest two wins over 1100m in the Winzenberg and the Lady Lynette were brilliant. Not sure she is quite as good at 1200m but worth noting she beat Life On The Wire home narrowly in the 3yo Cup last season over this trip. If she extends her brilliance to 1200m then she will be very hard to beat but the slight query is there.

1. Deja Blue: Has had a break since finishing down the field in the Group 3 Summoned Stakes at Sandown. Better suited back to 1200m where she won the Rosemount Stud Stakes on Geelong Cup day and she has won twice first-up from five tries. Ideally drawn and should settle just behind the speed so looks like getting a gun run. Looks the best of the interstate raiders and is a genuine winning chance.

3. Step The Pedal: Returned very nicely in the Lady Lynette, flashing home from back in the field to finish a close-up 4th. Suited by the longer trip and she has won four of six over this course. Will get back in the run so needs luck but any rain would be a bonus. If they overdo it up front she looms as the swooper who could blow them out late at odds.

8. Gogo Grace: A consistent South Australian mare who has form over longer trips but won her last start over 1200m three runs back at Morphettville. Is coming through lower benchmark races so this is a genuine jump in grade but was beaten less than four lengths in Group 3 company last prep. Usually drifts back in the run so will need luck but looks capable on an each way basis.

Next best Galeocerdo (9) (fast mare who was brave last time when 2nd in the Lady Lynette, extra 100m no spoil and can bomb the start but will give a sight if she leads) and No Money No Honey (12) (very promising mare who gets into this grade very early but Newitt takes the ride and is too smart to dismiss entirely).

Verdict

Life On The Wire (4) is a good mare who looks suited here kept fresh at 1200m. Give her the nod over Gee Gee Double Dee (2), but think value may also lie with the Victorian Deja Blue (1) and underrated mare Step The Pedal (3).

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – Life On The Wire for 6 units

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – Deja Blue for 3 units

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – Step The Pedal for 1 units

Race 8 – 19:55 Royal Australian Navy Class 1 Hcp (1200 METRES)

Speed Map

A number of on-pacers here but no genuine leader. Any of Gee Gee Cats, Woohoo, Lads Curfew, Berry Wise Fox, Ruthless Lover or Banca Boy could take up the running but all generally prefer to take a sit, which could make this a muddling run affair.

Major Players

4. Mansplaining: Caught the eye first-up in Launceston when he charged to the line despite encountering traffic problems in the straight. Gets back to his home track where he has run well at both starts, including his maiden win over this course. Will need luck from his wide draw and his likely spot back in the field but if he goes on from his fresh run he will be hard to hold out late.

7. Manilenya: Has had a month between runs to come back to this trip after finishing down the track over 1600m in BM62 grade. Best run of her prep was her first-up 2nd here over 1100m so coming back to the shorter distance looks suitable. Yendall is a positive booking and drawing out to run on may be advantaged late in the day. One of the better chances in an even race.

1. Banca Boy: A very consistent galloper who resumes here with a trial win under his belt. Has never been far away and his fresh run last time in over this course was a solid fourth in a strong maiden won by Taramaya. Pires rides the stablemate which isn’t usually a good sign and he might want a bit further in time but he is definitely good enough to win this if ready.

6. Geegees Cash Cow: Ran home strongly to score a deserved win here in maiden grade a fortnight ago over this course. This is clearly harder but is still on the up and drawn to get a cheap run in behind the speed. Carr sticks with her and she looks to have each way claims despite the jump in grade.

3. Lads Curfew: Resumes from a spell here without a trial. Improved last prep to race very consistently, including three second placings in C1 grade in Launceston, all on heavy ground. Maiden win came on a firmer track so improving ground probably isn’t an issue and he has the speed to take advantage of his good draw. Has definite claims if fit enough to go first-up.

Next best Ruthless Lover (9) (very game effort on speed last time at big odds and is capable if in the mood, looks best roughie).

Verdict

Hard race to finish. Lean to Mansplaining (4) after his good run in Launceston but a number of these have solid winning chances.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) – Mansplaining for 2 units


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