Race 1 – 12:10 Simons Design Centre 2YO Maiden (1150 METRES)

Speed Map

No obvious leader here so maybe newcomer Slick Virtue can hold the front from the inside. Aspirate, Blackberry Rose and Miss Iso may go forward of the raced brigade while the opportunity is there for a debutant to go forward if they begin well. Tricky to predict how this will be run.

Major Players

Aspirate (1) resumes from a short spell and tuned up with a nice trial win last week. Has shown ability every time he has stepped out and arguably should have won at his last run. Has the best exposed form in the race and plenty of scope to improve. Looks well placed and will be hard to beat.

Skilled Angel (3) is a nicely bred colt who has won both trials this time in different fashion. Led all the way in plain time early in the month and then made ground to score a strong win in good time last time out. Looks to have plenty of ability but outside draw is against. Respect any strong betting support because he looks up to this if he gets any luck from his wide gate.

Oh So Needy (9) wasn’t disgraced in good 2yo company last prep and then blew her chance at the start last time before working to the line behind Harriman. Should take plenty of benefit from that run and gets winkers on for the first time. Inside gate will help so expect a better showing this time.

Blackberry Rose (5) also resumes here, has trialled twice and has Newitt booked so she should be ready to go. Has been well held at all three starts in reasonably strong races but gets her first go in winkers. Has shown enough to be around the mark in this and improvement wouldn’t shock.

Slick Virtue (11) is a debutant who gave a good display in front at her most recent trial when 2nd behind Skilled Angel. Inside gate might help her lead the front if she begins well with no obvious pressure coming from out wider. Last bit might test first-up but drawn to advantage and potentially capable of showing up.

Next best Miss Iso (7) (better at second start on firmer ground, showed better speed so further improvement wouldn’t surprise) and Sienna’s Quest (10) (nice filly showing enough at the trials to respect any positive betting support).

Verdict

Aspirate (1) looks to have returned in good style at the trials and finds an ideal race to kick off in. Watch betting on Skilled Angel (3) while Oh So Needy (9) may improve at odds.

Staking Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Aspirate (1) for 8 units.

Race 2 – 12:45 Carlton Draught Maiden (1000 METRES)

Speed Map

Kwai showed enough speed at the trials to suggest she may lead here although she should have pressure from I’m A Lucky Girl to her outside. Debutant Luna Sky may try and kick through on the inside while Caesar’s Quest can be near the lead.

Major Players

Kwai (12) caught the eye at the trials earlier in the month when given some rein and she scored a dominant win in slick time. Scratched a fortnight ago to save her for this and drawn ideally. Expect her to land near the lead and if she goes on from her trial she should be hard to beat.

Caesar’s Quest (10) has the best exposed form in the race including a maiden placing and a 4th in the Sires’ Produce Stakes. Had the right run last time but got held up at a crucial stage and had to settle for 5th. Back in trip to 1000m for the first time is a concern but best form is better than these so he looks an obvious danger.

Buttons Undone (5) is another debutant, this time a 3yo filly from the Bill Ryan yard, who has had 7 trials including the latest pair on this track. Won impressively at her most recent outing but was scratched here a fortnight ago in favour of this. Will need luck from the wider draw but if she slots in expect her to be finishing off strongly.

I’m A Lucky Girl (6) is generally a speedy filly and showed speed fresh before capitulating behind Epidexios. Form last prep wasn’t far away in very solid maiden grade and while she failed at both runs on this track, they were at the start of her career and she was subsequently spelled. Expect her to be in the first couple and she can give a sight.

Luna Sky (14) is another first-starter and has only trialled once, leading and sticking on for 2nd behind Aspirate in good time. Drawn ideally for her debut and has blinkers on for the first time. Bred to appreciate more ground in time but showed enough at the trials to suggest she can give a sight if fancied.

Next best Gee Gees Saint Nik (1) (very plain first-up but has proven ability and has run well here in the past, might improve at odds).

Verdict

Kwai (12) did everything you could ask for at the trials and should take some beating here. Caesar’s Quest (10) is the obvious danger from those who have raced, while Buttons Undone (5) might be better later but has shown talent at the trials.

Staking Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Kwai (12) for 8 units.

Race 3 – 13:20 Sky Racing Maiden (1350 METRES)

Speed Map

Expect genuine speed from Leicester Rocket from wide out while Kel’s Star may try and lead over this longer trip. Emceeoh, Nova Vista, Kateland and Dazzle Street can all take up forward positions if they begin well enough.

Major Players

Nova Vista (9) was well tuned up for her first start with three trials leading in and caught the eye when working home strongly to run 2nd behind Harriman. Goes to 1350m second-up but should be fit enough due to those trials and gains the services of Newitt. Should get a lovely run just behind the speed and if she runs up to her debut effort she will take a power of beating.

White Gazelle (10) was unlucky late here over 1150m two starts ago when close-up behind Isere. Went to this longer trip last time and found the line gamely despite racing wide without cover throughout. Drawn a tricky gate again but racing well and with an ounce of luck she should be in the finish.

Race The Wind (2) has been very solid at all three runs this prep, filling the placings on each occasion. Got close to Fontein Harry last time when able to work through on the inside and beat home White Gazelle, albeit with more favours in running. Darmanin stays with him and if he gets luck from a midfield position he has a winning hope.

Mississippi Grind (7) got well back in her first Tasmanian run but caught the eye out wide when running home into 3rd behind Harriman. That form clearly ties in well through Nova Vista and the extra trip should suit given her form over longer distances in Victoria. Wide barrier won’t help her chances but if she goes on from her last run she has a hope.

Dazzle Street (3) showed good speed over 1000m in her first Tasmanian run and boxed on well to finish 2nd behind Platinum Magic. Had a torrid run last time from an outside gate but kept working home gamely to finish 4th behind Harriman in a very solid performance. Drawn out again which is the major query but can’t knock either run and is capable with luck in running.

Next best Emceeoh (1) (showed ability with a solid 3rd before spelling and comes here off two trials, might need a run but inside draw gives him his chance, watch betting) and Kel’s Star (5) (only fair this prep so far but has speed and longer trip may suit).

Verdict

Nova Vista (9) looks the obvious top pick off her good debut effort but White Gazelle (10) has shown plenty at her past couple of runs and is right in this with luck in running. Can make a case that many of these have some hope in a competitive race.

Staking Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Nova Vista (9) for 4 units.

 BACK (WIN) – White Gazelle (10) for 2 units.

Race 4 – 13:55 DRC August Winter Series Benchmark 58 Hcp Div 1 (1350 METRES)

Speed Map

Berry Wise Fox should be able to cross the field and lead without any other genuine leaders engaged. George’s Gambol has been settling near the front and can do so again while Jack’s Choice, Mosh Opera and Life’s Quest have the speed to take up a handy position. The on-pacers should get their chance.

Major Players

George’s Gambol (3) settled on speed over this course two starts ago and bolted in. Dropped back to 1150m last time but showed speed again before fading to run 4th behind Enzian. Suited getting back up to 1350m and will find this easier than last time. Beautifully drawn and if he continues to show his improved early speed he looks a great chance to win again.

Jack’s Choice (6) has been steadily improving since joining the Gary White stable and toughed it out on speed admirably last time over this course to run a narrow 2nd behind Island Pirate. This is a similar type of race and she looks set to find a good spot on speed again. Only needs to continue her improving form to be right in the mix again here.

Mosh Opera (9) has had to deal with wide gates at her past two runs over this course but has been quite solid to finish 4th on each occasion despite doing things wrong in the run. Comes up with an inside alley this time which may give her the soft run in behind them she requires at this 1350m trip. Comes through the right form races and looks a good each-way chance from that barrier.

Pelagia (5) has been freshened since running 3rd behind Matiano in tougher company on wet ground in Hobart. Recent form has been very consistent despite her get-back racing pattern and this slightly shorter trip doesn’t pose any issues. Has only placed once in 9 runs at this track which is more of a concern, especially considering she will settle near the rear. Needs things to go her way but very capable if they do.

Purple Rider (4) races well over this course and appreciated the drop back from the mile to run 3rd last time behind Island Pirate and Jack’s Choice. Another who gets well back in his races and that affects his ordinary winning strike rate (1 from 23). His form lines up well with most of the major chances so is a knockout chance with the right run.

Next Best Morcroft (1) (promising stayer resuming after two trials, has talent but might need this) and Om Nom (8) (had support first-up over this course and wasn’t too far away so natural improvement can see her thereabouts).

Verdict

George’s Gambol (3) is racing well and will appreciate getting back to this trip so he holds plenty of appeal. Jack’s Choice (6) has a solid hope while Mosh Opera (9) will appreciate her inside draw and that may help her find the extra length or two that she needs..

Staking Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – George’s Gambol (3) for 3 units.

 BACK (WIN) – Mosh Opera (9) for 1 unit.

Race 5 – 14:30 Birdcage Tavern Benchmark 58 Hcp Div 2 (1350 METRES)

Speed Map

No obvious leader here so it may be left to French Connection, Platinum Magic and/or Ruthless Lover to take up the running. Many of these can be thereabouts which makes it a tricky map to predict.

Major Players

Island Pirate (2) has come back in good style and won third-up over this course last time in a very good performance after racing wide and chasing a fast tempo. Draws ideally this time and should benefit further with that run over this trip under his belt. In reasonably with Graham’s claim so while this is harder he does look well placed to go close again.

Rougeau (1) generally races in better grade than this and caught the eye first-up when running home nicely to finish midfield behind Ariconte in a C4 over 1000m. Jumps sharply to 1350m second-up which is a concern but beat Khatun over this course last prep and stretched out to win over 1620m later on. Well graded and should be hard to beat if fit enough but might need one more?

Strathalbyn (3) has been freshened since finishing well back here over 1650m in BM64 grade. Previous form was strong for this, including a win here in this grade four runs back. This trip is alright fresh as he has placed over this course but he does need luck generally settling back in the field. Poor winning strike rate but can win if things go his way.

Platinum Magic (5) won well in maiden company over 1000m first-up and then rattled home from the back last time behind Enzian. Longer trip looks suitable again off her Victorian form and may be able to settle closer to overcome the wide draw. On the up and looks capable with luck in running.

Farnor West (3) will find this a bit easier than her first two runs this prep where she has been well held behind Spihro and Enzian. Won twice in only four tries over this course earlier in her career so could be ready to improve in her third run back in the state. Capable of rolling forward so might show up at longer odds.

Next best Bedrock Dreams (8) (very good 2nd two starts ago before midfield effort last time, easier here but this longer trip does test).

Verdict

Hard to go past Island Pirate (2) after an impressive win under these conditions last time. Rougeau (1) is the class runner while Platinum Magic (5) is still on the up and may have more to give at the longer trip.

Staking Strategy

 BACK (WIN) – Island Pirate (2) for 4 units.

Race 6 – 15:05 Great Northern Benchmark 64 Hcp (1650 METRES)

Speed Map

Mr America generally ensures a very strong tempo and may have company for the front if Slalom maintains his current front-running tactics despite the drop in trip. Scouting Around will be right there but happy to take a trail while Trophy Legs and Greenmount Lass can push forward also. Every horse should get its chance.

Major Players

Mr America (1) gets out to the mile third-up after two solid on-speed efforts this prep, the latest a game 3rd after doing a lot of work early to find the front. Ran well twice in better grade over this course last prep including a very good 3rd behind Spihro on Cup day. Proven weight carrier and looks a leading chance in a competitive race.

Flying Geepee (4) hasn’t been beaten more than three lengths for a long time and has been close-up at his past three despite being unplaced. Best form is generally over the shorter trip but worth noting he has been beaten less than a length in his last two tries over the mile. Has been dealing with outside barriers and tough runs so will appreciate an inside draw and has a definite chance on that basis.

Don Reggio (2) had the right run last time but still worked home well behind proven miler Kool Kash over this course in tougher grade. This is no harder and draws to get a similar run with Patis aboard again. Rarely runs a bad race here, especially in this grade, and looks to have very solid each way claims once again.

Scouting Around (5) started favourite last time and looked to have every chance on speed but faded in the straight to finish a well-beaten 4th behind Kool Kash. Newitt stays with him and he gets blinkers on for the first time here. Won over this course three starts ago in quick time so the trip is fine but will need to improve on his latest effort.

Khatun (3) dead heated for 1st over 1350m two starts back before struggling to get into the race from the back last time in the small field. Goes to 1650m which she hasn’t attempted often and the blinkers come off to help her settle for the trip. Suited in this grade and in alright with Graham’s claim so she has a hope with the right run.

Next best Greenmount Lass (8) (close 3rd two starts back before fading off hot tempo last time, some hope on her best form).

Verdict

Mr America (1) will have derived plenty of benefit from his first two runs and looks set to show his best here. Flying Geepee (4) will enjoy a quieter run from an inside draw and is a genuine danger with Don Reggio (2), Scouting Around (5) and Khatun (3) all capable with the right run in a reasonably even race.

STAKING STRATEGY: 1 unit each way on Flying Geepee (4).

 BACK (WIN) – Mosh Opera (9) for 1 unit.

Race 7 – 15:45 Peppermint Parties Benchmark 64 Hcp (1150 METRES)

Speed Map

Expecting a hot tempo with all bar Tycoon’s Daughter and Gee Gee Royal Miss capable of settling in the first few. Kyogle Son is most likely to lead but will have plenty of competition from the likes of Secretan, Braccenby and Cuban Missile.

Major Players

Enzian (6) is a very promising filly who has won three of her four starts this prep and was arguably unlucky not to win the other one. Was given a great run by Newitt off the inside last time and finished off powerfully in good time when well backed. Is probably looking for slightly longer now but should appreciate the strong tempo and can run over the top of them again. Top pick.

Ariconte (1) dropped back to 1000m last time and was too strong for Kyogle Son after being given the perfect trail by Ganderton. Rise to 1150m shouldn’t pose any issue having won twice over this course previously and he draws ideally to sit behind the pressure again. Has plenty of weight but has run well with big weights in the past and he looks an obvious danger.

Steel Dan (4) resumes here after trialling earlier this month. Has a very good fresh record, especially at this track, and is proven around this grade. Can carry weight and capable of taking a sit if the pressure is on up front. Has finished in the first couple at all three runs over this course and rarely runs a bad race. Genuine chance.

Gasnier (7) is racing consistently in this grade and hasn’t been far away at his past couple when 3rd on each occasion. Draws inside for a nice run just behind the speed again and gets a bit of weight relief with Voorham’s claim. Doesn’t need to improve much to be right in the finish again and has each way claims.

Tycoon’s Daughter (11) was very good first-up when able to grab Duperrey on the line but wasn’t sighted last time when back in the field throughout. Suited with the break between runs and should appreciate plenty of pressure on the on-pacers. Mixes her form but if things pan out her way she is the swooper who could blouse them.

Next best Kyogle Son (3) (improved last time with blinkers on but back up to 1150m and pressure for the front doesn’t suit as well).

Verdict

Hard to go past Enzian (6) who is flying but continues to race like she wants a little further now. Stablemates Ariconte (1) and Steel Dan (4) are genuine dangers if things don’t go the filly’s way in running.

STAKING STRATEGY

 BACK (WIN) – Ariconte (1) for 1 unit.

 BACK (WIN) – Steel Dan (4) for 1 unit.

 BACK (WIN) – Tycoon’s Daughter (11) for 1 unit.

Race 8 – 16:30 RJ Publishing & Signs Class 1 Hcp (1150 METRES)

Speed Map

Always a good tempo with Knitting engaged and Meetony coming across from wider out. Dothraki Princess is very speedy also but was ridden in behind at the trials and may try and take a sit. Effortless Opera will be right there while many of these may try and speed across for a forward position from wide draws. Expecting good pressure up front.

Major Players

Effortless Opera (5) is a lightly raced filly who resumes here with two trials under her belt. First three runs at this track were all good before taking on the better 3yos without being disgraced. No surprise if she has improved coming into her second preparation, especially with winkers on for the first time here, and draws ideally for a camp on speed. Leading chance in an even race.

Beautiful Boy (2) is another 3yo resuming and has also had two trials to prime him for this. Got out over ground last prep but first two sprinting performances were good in maiden grade. Handles this surface and should be strong at the finish if the pressure is on. Awkward draw but can run a race if fancied.

Font Magica (8) is a newcomer to the Adam Trinder yard after racing in Victoria for Henry Dwyer. Has mixed her form recently but placed on the synthetic two runs back in BM64 grade and had metro performances last year. Hasn’t been seen at the trials so hard to line up and she generally gets back in her races but her best form looks more than good enough for a race like this. Massive watch.

Nordic Thunder (4) is a talented 3yo who returns to 1150m after a plain run when favourite over 1350m. Previous 2nd behind the smart Enzian was good after enjoying a good run behind the speed. Major obstacle here is his outside draw and plenty of speed drawn underneath. Has had a few chances but does have ability if he gets luck slotting in.

Dothraki Princess (14) is a former Tasmanian who returns to the state to race for Adam Trinder after racing in Victoria for Anthony Cosgriff. Loaded with speed but struggles to finish her races off so running at 1150m may be an issue first-up. That said, she looked good in winning a trial leading into this when she took a sit and finished off so the change of environment may bring about improvement. Might show up at odds being down in the weights from a good draw.

Next best Majestic Bow (3) (tuned up with two trials, has performed well here but also has a nightmare draw for Patis to negotiate) and Odessa Lad (7) (racing well on wet ground in Hobart but first look at this track and will need luck in running).

Verdict

Effortless Opera (5) is a nice filly drawn to perfection and will be hard to hold out with luck getting clear at the right time. Plenty of queries in the race, notably Font Magica (8) and Dothraki Princess (14) from the mainland and many winning chances for the last leg of the quaddie.

STAKING STRATEGY

 BACK (WIN) – Effortless Opera (5) for 2 units.

 BACK (WIN) – Font Magica (8)for 1 unit.


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