EXPERT RACING TIPS: LAUNCESTON

LAUNCESTON | 26 JANUARY

Rail Position: +3m position | Track Condition: Good 4 – Improving

The feature racing continues in Launceston on Wednesday night with a nine-race program headlined by the Kevin Sharkie Launceston Guineas.

Alpine Wolf was every bit as good as connections said he was in the Tasmanian Guineas over a mile and punters have warmed to him in the Listed 2100m feature, backing him from $1.80 to $1.50 before race day.

The $50,000 Ladbrokes Stakes has attracted a small field as it often does, but there’s a good mix of established sprinters and the smart And Beyond looking to make his mark at that level.

Warm weather is forecast for Launceston so the track should be firm and the rail moves to the +3m position, last used for Newmarket night on 1 December.

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BEST BACK OF THE DAY: Race 3 | #8 Emily (WIN) for 4 units

Emily has drawn gate one for the second time in as many starts but she showed she can absorb some pressure in Devonport so it’s tough to make a case against her, even at the short price.

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Race 1 | KEY RUNNERS

UPSET (3) is up to 16 starts without a win but has placed in half those runs. He’ll likely land behind the leader from the inside gate and get his chance to notch that elusive win. BABY BROM (9) was a big drifter on debut in Devonport and faded after racing outside the speed. She draws well and claims right down to 52kg with EBB in the saddle. TWO DOLLAR TOM (6) wasn’t asked for a lot at Longford and will be worth keeping an eye on the market having his first start for a new stable. DADORABLE (8) closed well here first-up and her recent trial was behind an open class galloper. BLACK EAGLET (4) was backed in from a huge price last time for a midfield finish. This race looks a bit easier in a field that drops away quickly.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Two Dollar Tom for 2 units

BACK (WIN) — Baby Brom for 1 unit

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Race 2 | KEY RUNNERS

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Race 3 | KEY RUNNERS

EMILY (8) ran right up to her impressive trials and heavy market support with a dominant debut victory. She showed speed to lead from the same draw in Devonport and you would expect she’ll try and hold a forward position again and hope for the same result. BELLE CADEAU (10) was disappointing at Longford but wouldn’t be the first horse to not handle that tight track. She’s in the mix off her previous Launceston performances. TILTHEREWARSYOU (13) has had plenty of chances but has been freshened since a Devonport placing and her recent trial win can be franked in the opening race. SHAKE YOUR TOOSHY (9) was towards the head of the market here last start and wasn’t far away. She maps to land midfield and be saved for a look at them late. BONDI TIFF (7) ran much better than the market expected in the same race and isn’t the worst if backmarkers can get into the race. UNDER HIS EYE (4) set a very fast tempo in front there and the run was better than it looks on paper. Last start winners ENSNARE (5) and ETOSHA (6) had a bit in their favour when winning at big prices and we’ll learn more about them here. CHAMPAGNE CINDERS (11) was ridden a bit quieter here last start from a poor draw. She’s normally a speedy filly who tries to lead all the way. TRUE SCOTSMAN (1) draws very poorly for his Tasmanian debut and hasn’t been seen publicly for over a year so watch the market if he stays in.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Emily for 4 units

BACK (EACH-WAY) — Under His Eye for 1 unit win and 2 units place

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Race 4 | KEY RUNNERS

DI’S A DANCER (2) had good market support and rewarded followers with a nice return win here last start. She took 11 starts to notch her first win but this looks a suitable progression. ESSEX (3) went back from a poor draw last time but closed hard and should settle much closer here from the inside gate. PAGE (13) gets the winkers for the first time and has been knocking on the door in recent starts. The form from her last start looks strong with a few runners heading to the $100,000 Guineas. LET IT RIP REGGIE (1) arrives to mainland Tasmania after a pair of King Island runs where he started very short on both occasions. LAUNNIE NIGHTS (4) drops sharply in distance deep into the campaign which doesn’t look ideal, but he wasn’t far away last start. PORT BERRY (5) has only won once from 39 runs but is often respected by the market as was the case again last start. John Blacker has five runners in the race including ANGELI (10) who like the stablemate Port Berry must be testing followers patience.

Betting Strategy

BACK (EACH WAY) — Page for 2 units each-way

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Race 5 | KEY RUNNERS

This is a big class drop for GREGORIAN CHANT (1) who wasn’t far away in a small field at the T&D last start. She carried the same weight when running second on Devonport Cup day to CLIFTON DANSEUR (3). He followed that up with another good performance on the grass and should’ve finished closer had his racing manners been better close to home. ONE LOTTO (2) is another runner who jumps in weight for a big drop in grade. He’s been up a long time and will keep battling away. COSTERO (5) had to make a sustained run from the back to get into the race at the last Launceston meeting and only went down narrowly. He’s been in the quinella three times from four starts at the T&D. TINY TIMMY (6) is a last start winner in easier grade but does seem to race well over the Launceston staying trip. BREW HORSE (4) also makes the jump from maiden/class 1 company. He had the right run in Hobart, but I suspect connections have been waiting to get him over this distance. Peter Luttrell-trained pair CAPTAIN MORGAN (9) and TECHNO AWARDS (11) have been around the mark for a while and at least have claims for the minor money.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Gregorian Chant for 1 unit

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Race 6 | KEY RUNNERS

ALPINE WOLF (1) lived up the hype with a dominant win over a mile in the Tasmanian Guineas last start. Connections have long spruiked his staying capabilities and he gets the opportunity to show that here. MEDAL (3) and ALPINE AFFAIR (4) finished alongside each other in that race, the stewards report indicating post-race that Medal didn’t have blinkers applied as indicated in the form guide. ASHY BOY (2) led to win at Kyneton two starts back and enjoyed the run of the race at Flemington when finishing in a blanket for third. BUNDLE OF FUN (10) dictated from the front at Warrnambool last start and gets out to the staying trip for the first time. She’s the sole filly in the race. GEEGEESLOCKDOWN (6) jumps to 2100m at just his third start. He ran a good second last time in a race where I’M SO COOL (9) led and boxed on for third and CHINCHERO (8) came from well back on a night where on-pace/rail was favoured. HELLFIRE EAGLE (5) was a winner on Devonport Cup day, that form receiving a moderate push with Has the Look running second on Sunday.

Betting Strategy

BACK (PLACE) — Chinchero for 2 units

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Race 7 | KEY RUNNERS

GEE GEE SECONDOVER (2) settled a long last here over 1120m last time and only got warm when the race was over. He’s suited getting back to WFA conditions where he’ll meet the winner from last start ETHICAL DILEMMA (5) 4kg better at the weights. Ethical Dilemma had a charmed run behind the speed first-up but clearly he has come back in good order. AND BEYOND (6) was sent out favourite in the Newmarket at his last run at the T&D and didn’t have a lot of luck there. He bounced back well in the Conquering and this is a great chance to post a first feature race win. LE CADEAU (4) has had a super campaign and enters this race at the peak of his powers. He got a great ride from Jason Maskiell to win in Devonport. BLAZE FORTH (1) won this race last year when upsetting Mystic Journey. Eight of his 14 career wins have come at the T&D but as a 9YO he may find this a bit sharp dropping back from a mile.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Gee Gee Secondover for 3 units

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Race 8 | KEY RUNNERS

REWARD ACHIEVER (5) was scratched from the last Launceston meeting when drawing poorly and the decision has been vindicated with a low marble here. She was very brave in defeat in Devonport last time out. Stablemate UBRIACO (3) was a winner on that program. He’s likely to settle further back and look to be strong late. FIGHTING FLOYD (1) has been savaging the line from miles off the pace in Hobart and looks suited getting back to 1400m. Two of his three career wins have come in Launceston. MAGIC KHAN (6) was a strong winner at Longford and the second horse came out to win next start. OUR SHINKANSEN (8) was over a month between runs when disappointing here last time when very easy in the market. From the pole draw she will get an economical run and well into the campaign may be looking for 1400m. HAMOGANY (2) was well-supported here last start and was a shade disappointing despite being flushed out early. YARRA MASTER (4) had trouble getting clear in the home straight but a bunched finish makes that form hard to trust. MILITARY LAW (7) had been threatening to win a race for a while and finally got the right run/result last time out. He’ll need luck from the draw in a fairly deep race.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Reward Achiever for 3 units

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Race 9 | KEY RUNNERS

REITE DEN BLITZ (4) was scratched from the Lady Lynette on Sunday to run here. She was a little plain in Devonport given the run she had and gets a chance to atone back on the grass. GEE GEE BAY WATCH (7) returned with a first-up win and end a lengthy winless drought. He was allowed to dictate from the front in that race but may receive a bit more pressure dropping back to 1100m. RHYME WRITER (8) has come back with a pair of excellent runs, forced to change path close to home last time may have cost him in a tight finish. He has a 1.5kg swing in his favour for beating Reite Den Blitz first-up. EPIC SONG (5) has the scalp of Summer Fire last time he raced, and that horse subsequently won the next two starts. KEEPER’S TOUCH (3) was fourth in that race but has since made it up to a mile so this might be a bit sharp even with the gap between runs. DEBRIEF (2) gets some weight off his back from his previous two Tassie starts and also has the visors replacing blinkers. MYSTICAL BEAUTY (9) has mixed form in her career and looks to have her work cut out from a poor draw.

Betting Strategy

BACK (EACH WAY) — Debrief for 1 unit each-way