Tas Racing: Hobart, Sunday 22nd July

Hobart hosts its last meeting of the season on Sunday with a competitive 8 race program set to take place on heavy ground once again. Exciting 2yo Lady Pluck returns to the track in race 3 after her debut 2nd in the Gold Sovereign but has an inside gate to overcome. In-form Tough Missile will look to win again in R4 but will face stiff competition from classy wet track mare Step The Pedal.

Race 1 – 11:25 Carlton Draught Benchmark 84 Hcp (1600 METRES)

Agree To looks the likely leader or possibly the stablemate Punta Norte. They should get a comfortable run on speed with the rest happy to race behind the speed.

Agree To (4) has put in his best performances on heavy ground this prep, running 2nd at all three attempts here on his home track. Was very firm late in betting last time and stuck on gamely for 2nd behind Red Spyder after getting a good run on speed. Goes to the mile for the first time since arriving in Tasmania and while he should dictate terms it looks a concern on his mainland form. Very consistent and likes the conditions so will be hard to run down.

Red Spyder (2) was quite impressive here a fortnight ago when too strong for Agree To over the concluding states despite being first-up over 1400m on heavy ground. Should be fitter again and the extra distance shouldn’t be an issue having won in this distance range two starts ago in Devonport as well as placing on multiple times when in Victoria. Only has to go on from his last performance to take a power of beating again.

Trusted Warrior (6) looked to have found his race last time in easier company but clipped heels on straightening and weakened out of it from there. Gets a big weight drop to compensate for the rise in grade and is ready for the mile now. On paper this class tests but talented on his day and draws ideally on the outside. Loves the heavy and is the horse on the way through so must be respected.

Matiano (5) comes back in trip here after three runs over 2100m. Was successful at his last run over 1600m prior to that, which came off two 2100m runs so he has shown he can drop in distance successfully. This is harder than the field he beat there but he gets down to the minimum and hasn’t missed a place in his past ten runs so expect him to be right in the finish once again.

Demons Run (3) also comes back from 2100m where he was too strong for Matiano. Doubt he is as well suited to the shorter trip than Matiano but he has been competitive over this course in open company in the past. Does love wet ground and can go forward and stick on but might find a couple of these too sharp.

Next best Punta Norte (1) (both runs plain at shorter trips, won a 1400m trial since last run and has won over the mile but prefer to see something from him first).

Verdict:

Agree To (4) and Red Spyder (2) are the obvious chances again after finishing one-two last time. Trusted Warrior (6) comes through different form and looks suited up to the mile and down in the weights.

STAKING STRATEGY

 BACK – 2 units to win on Trusted Warrior (6).

 

Race 2 – 12:00 TRC Members Benchmark 70 Hcp (1400 METRES)

Expect Bosporus and Savs Finale to take up the running ahead of Into The Night with Scrutineer trying to settle behind them.

Savs Finale (2) got to this trip third-up and battled away inside runners to hold 3rd when a beaten favourite behind Red Spyder. This is easier and this time he draws outside the field which should suit better. Set to get a good run on speed and should benefit from having the run over this trip last time. Great chance to bounce back this time.

Bosporus (3) comes up in grade after a dominant win over this course in BM64 grade. Should also get a good run either in front or near the lead and is still on the up this prep at only his fourth run. This is harder but has always shown some quality so expect him to measure up. Genuine danger.

Scrutineer (5) has been very good over the sprinting trips this preparation with form that is strong enough for this. Concern is her only 1400m run this prep where she over raced and didn’t finish off, coming in last behind Minute Repeater in admittedly tougher grade. That was her fourth unplaced try over this distance so that is the obvious query but if she can settle better and run it out strongly she is clearly capable in this company.

Wyuna (6) is a nice staying mare resuming. Hasn’t trialled but accepted to run at the last meeting so expect she has done plenty of work. Likes racing here on her home track and has measured up in better company over staying trips so a forward showing fresh wouldn’t shock.

King Manu (1) is a rising 10yo who resumes after a short spell without a trial and with blinkers off. Has placed first-up in the past and rarely runs a bad race at this track, having placed in 14 of his 19 starts. Loves wet ground and has placed twice over this course but doesn’t win out of turn and appeals more on a place basis.

Next best Into The Night (4) (ran well two starts back but backs-up here after a disappointing effort where he hung out throughout so will need to improve pretty sharply).

Verdict:

Savs Finale (2) does look well placed to make amends for his last start defeat with Bosporus (3) the horse on the up appealing as the major danger.

STAKING STRATEGY

 BACK – 4 units to win on Savs Finale (2).

 

 

Race 3 – 12:40 Trchobart.com.au Maiden (1100 METRES)

Pace comes from out wide here with Secret Savings, Tara’s Design and potentially the debutant Prince Of Virtue. Likely favourite Lady Pluck has a task to get to the right part of the track from her inside gate.

Lady Pluck (11) is a 2yo taking on the older horses and resumes from a spell after her excellent debut 2nd in the Gold Sovereign behind Tiesto. Won a trial impressively over the promising Hatrick Hero last month so suggest she is ready to fire fresh. The major obstacle is the inside gate which she will need to overcome with horses likely to scout wide. Clearly the best horse in the race but will need some luck in running at likely short odds.

Silent Savings (5) has been racing well here when drawing the right side of the track and again comes up with a suitably wide draw. No match for Red Pearl at his past couple but prior to that ran a very solid 2nd behind subsequent winner Epidexios. Expect him to lead wide on the track and may benefit from slightly shorter trip. May take some running down.

Prince Of Virtue (4) is a debutant from the Mark Ganderton stable who makes an interesting choice to run here first-up after trialling twice successfully on his home track in Devonport. Looks to have plenty of early speed which should see him land in a good spot here from a wider draw. Not an overly tough race outside of the obvious favourite so expect him to be competitive if he handles the wet ground and respect any positive market support.

Tara’s Design (9) tried stepping up to the 1400m last time but capitulated in the straight to be well beaten after setting the early tempo. Back to 1100m looks suitable after that effort and worth noting she beat home Silent Savings over this course three starts ago when 4th behind Miss Eleanor. Might have trouble getting wide from her middle draw but has each way claims on her best form.

I Am The Dude (2) resumes from a long spell here without a trial. Started to hit his straps late into his last preparation, including a solid 2nd on heavy ground here behind Pontypaul. Booking of Newitt suggests he might be pretty fit but has to overcome an inside draw. Can be thereabouts.

Next best The Auditor (6) (yet to be tried over this shorter trip so hard to line up but kept fresh, drawn out will help and not bad at latest run over 1400m).

Verdict

Lady Pluck (11) is the obvious class runner of the field but has a nightmare draw. Silent Savings (5) is drawn to advantage with Prince Of Virtue (4) the watch and Tara’s Design (9) the potential improver.

STAKING STRATEGY

 BACK – 1 unit to win on Silent Savings (5).

 

 

Race 4 – 13:20 Schweppes Benchmark 76 Hcp (1200 METRES)

No obvious speed here. Angel Of The Abyss may lead from wide out on the track or Tough Missile working across from her inside draw, but with no obvious on-pacer here the spots near the lead are up for grabs.

Tough Missile (5) has learnt to handle the heavy tracks and scored a strong win here over 1100m last week in BM70 grade over her stablemate Scrutineer. Slightly longer trip isn’t an issue but there is a bit more depth to this field. Stays right down in the weights even with Newitt replacing Graham and the small field and lack of obvious speed should help him overcome an inside gate. Looks a solid chance to win again.

Step The Pedal (2) is the class runner of the field but will have to carry 60.5kg as a result, even after Voorham’s claim. Has been racing over slightly longer trips in harder grade but has won 4 of her 8 starts over this shorter course. Loves heavy ground and draws the right spot so is very capable of winning despite the big impost.

Love Magic (3) races best fresh and has been kept that way with four weeks since his last run where he was midfield behind Savs Finale over this course. Won here the start prior beating Scrutineer and Minute Repeater which is strong enough form for this. Proven weight carrier and likes wet ground but does give them a start. Obvious chance again.

Angel Of The Abyss (4) is a talented mare but hasn’t shown her best form for a few runs now. Didn’t do a whole lot first-up here behind Tough Missile but should have derived benefit from the run. Slightly longer trip looks suitable and now gets a big weight drop. Clearly up to this on her best form but would like to see her show signs of it first.

Catalyst Fire (6) is another mare with ability who resumes here after trialling behind Hellova Street last month. Early form last prep was very solid but appeared to train off after returning from a run in Victoria. Can do a bit wrong so a senior rider should suit as should the light weight. Gate 1 won’t help and hard to know which one is going to turn up but capable on her best.

Next best Boart (7) (been a while since he has performed to his best and should find this too tough).

Verdict

Tricky race. Tough Missile (5) is in good form and can win again. Step The Pedal (2) is the class runner and loves wet ground but has plenty of weight, while Love Magic (3) is always a danger with the right run.

STAKING STRATEGY

 BACK – 2 units to win on Tough Missile (5).

 

Race 5 – 14:00 Elwick Functions & Events 2YO Maiden (1200 METRES)

Highveld may take up the running out wide on the track ahead of Hatrick Hero and possibly Buzzered and Bonduel Lily. Doesn’t look to be much pressure up front so doubt they go at more than a basic tempo.

Hatrick Hero (4) is a half-brother to Hot Dipped who ran well here on debut over 1100m when 2nd behind Clever Charlotte. Trialled well since behind the smart Lady Pluck and now has winkers on for the first time. Drawn perfectly and should get a good run near the lead. Logical top pick and will be hard to beat.

Oh So Needy (8) ran well enough in good 2yo grade in her first prep and hasn’t been too bad in both runs at Devonport this time in. May be better suited getting onto the turf here and Newitt takes the reins this time. Should be strong at the end of the 1200m and looks a danger on that basis.

Gee Gee Caughtya (1) resumed from a spell here against the older horses over 1400m and charged home to finish a narrow 2nd after struggling to keep up with the field during the race. Showed a liking for wet ground there but now comes back to 1200m which doesn’t look suitable. Finds a race without a lot of proven form so his last run is up to many of these and he will be strong at the finish if he can stay in touch.

Highveld (5) trialled well before his first-up run but failed badly here on heavy ground. Went better at Devonport last week and now backs up for new trainer Steven Davis. Drawn to race close to the lead in the right part of the track but the wet track is a major query on his run two starts ago. If he handles it better this time he should be in the right spot to be in the finish.

Next best Gee Gee Runaway (3) (forgive last run when saddle slipped, 3rd over this course behind Epidexios three starts back and drawn out here gives him some hope).

Verdict

Hatrick Hero (4) looks well placed and will be very hard to beat.

STAKING STRATEGY

 BACK – 10 units to win on Hatrick Hero (4).

 

Race 6 – 14:40 Unique Doors & Windows Benchmark 64 Hcp (1200 METRES)

Expect good tempo here with Red Pearl, Owens and Pontypaul trying to get wide from their inside gates. Miss Smith will be right there as usual while Bunker Star and Lads Curfew can also be near the lead.

Qui Samer (1) broke through for a long overdue win two starts ago with a dominant win here over 1400m and then worked home into 3rd last time after working down the outside in restricted room behind Bosporus. Comes back in trip but has run well under similar circumstances in the past and loves the heavy ground. Draws right spot but always needs luck from back in the field. A leading chance again.

Owens (3) found the 1400m too far here last time behind Bosporus but his previous run was a strong win on slow ground here over 1100m. Mixes his form but is very capable when things go his way in running as highlighted by that win and this doesn’t look any harder. Inside draw is a negative but has speed to try and work wide on the track and well weighted with Voorham’s claim. If he can get to the right spot he is up to this.

O’Loughlin (5) finally won his second race last time out over this course when he came from last and right up the inside to score a big win in C1 company. That followed a number of good performances under similar conditions but his get back style means he always requires a lot of luck to get through the field. This doesn’t look a whole lot tougher and he loves heavy ground so he has knockout claims again.

Kepta (10) rattled home down the outside to finish 2nd behind O’Loughlin two starts ago and then ran 5th last time behind Jack’s Choice over 1400m which is probably a bit far for her to show her absolute best. Better suited back to this trip despite her pattern of dropping out early but there is a little more depth this time. Worth noting she hasn’t missed a place in five runs over this course and likes wet ground so she is another who can blow them out with the right run.

Pontypaul (6) resumes from a spell for John Luttrell here. Looked very promising early in her career and scored a big debut win here on heavy ground before mixing her form in some good races. Has plenty of speed which may help her get wide from her inside gate. Hasn’t trialled so 1200m may be an ask first-up but the wet ground may be what she wants. In the mix.

Next best Miss Smith (9) (finally broke her maiden last time, much more depth this time but drawn right spot and no weight), Red Pearl (7) (bolted in last time in maiden grade, racing well but inside draw a big negative) and Lads Curfew (2) (freshened since Devonport failure, mixes his form but placed all three runs on heavy ground).

Verdict

Very open race with a number of the leading chances being backmarkers with poor winning strike rates. Owens (3) and Pontypaul (6) both appeal as improvers if they can get to the right part of the track from inside draws.

STAKING STRATEGY

 BACK – 3 units to win on Qui Samer (1)

 BACK – 2 units to win on Pontypaul (6)

 BACK – 1 unit to win on Owens (3)

Race 7 – 15:20 Canteen Vase Class 2 Hcp (1400 METRES)

Should be a good tempo here with West On Broadway, Son Of A Fling and Jack’s Choice capable of taking up the running ahead of The Decider and Platinum Magic.

Jack’s Choice (5) raced on speed here last week before racing away in the straight to score a dominant win in C1 company over this course. Harder this time but gets similar conditions and draws the right spot for a good run on speed again. Rock hard fit and stays down in the weights. Good chance to win again in a wide race.

West On Broadway (1) lost all chance at the start last time and trailed the field in accordingly. Has raced well in this grade and higher so is well weighted with Smith’s 4kg claim. Should roll on speed and while 1400m is probably as far as he wants he has placed over this trip previously. Has been a bit hard to catch but in the mix here if he brings his best.

The Decider (2) is an interesting runner here, tackling the 1400m first-up and coming straight out of maiden grade. Showed ability at his first preparation but there is far more depth to this race than the fields he was contesting earlier in the season. Has trialled so this may be a bit of a plan fresh and draws out in the right part of the track. Hard to line up his chances but respect any positive market support.

Son Of A Fling (3) drops in grade here after a couple of even efforts here over shorter trips. Loves wet ground and goes to 1400m for the first time. While that presents as an obvious query he may relish the softer tempo and is racing like it may suit now. Definite chance if the added trip turns out to be what he wants.

Pelagia (8) is another who doesn’t win out of turn but does race well for Newitt who regains the ride here. Won here over a mile a few runs ago but did run very well over 1400m behind Westwood four runs back so this shorter trip is ok. Winkers go on and she draws the right spot so while she always needs everything her way it looks possible here and she can win on that basis.

Littlerayov (6) drops right back in grade after racing first-up in BM84 grade when finishing near the tail behind Minute Repeater. Wasn’t a bad effort under the circumstances but hasn’t raced for nearly two months which might be an ask on the heavy ground. Has raced well here in wet conditions including a close 2nd to Our Shanakee earlier in the season. Hard horse to catch but can bob up at odds.

Next best The Grey Crusader (4) (racing well here on wet ground but comes back sharply in distance in a race with much more depth to it).

Verdict

Another even race. Jack’s Choice (5) looks an obvious chance after winning well under these conditions last time but many of these are capable if they produce their best.

STAKING STRATEGY

 BACK – 4 units to win on Jack’s Choice (5)

Race 8 – 16:00 Great Northern Super Crisp MDN/CL1 (1600 METRES)

Country Way will look to lead here with the likes of Foreeva and Pinkeyes Pride potentially keeping him honest. Zuberina and Kandahar look like getting good runs on speed from wide draws.

Zuberina (12) scored a soft win at her first run for the Brunton stable here over 1400m and then went under by the narrowest of margins last time to Perun under similar conditions. Can only be fitter again with that mile run under her belt and again draws perfectly to track wide just behind the lead. This doesn’t look any harder than last time so she appeals as the obvious top pick.

Ramaadi Bullet (4) has got out to the mile at his past couple of races and run well, following a close-up 3rd behind Perun and Zuberina here on wet ground with a very game 4th in solid BM64 grade at Devonport behind Mr America. Those runs read very well for this and he won’t have to do much work to find the right part of the track from his wide gate. Getting back in his races which contributes to his poor winning strike rate but a definite danger to the favourite on his past couple.

Country Way (2) again drops back to the mile after a 2100m run, where he ran an improved 3rd behind The Grey Crusader after failing at his previous try. Plenty of merit to his 5th behind Perun two runs back after doing a lot of work on speed and finishing clearly ahead of the other on-pacers. Rock hard fit and should benefit from Carr taking the reins so expect him to give a bold sight in front.

Cascade City (1) has been a bit temperamental in his short career so far but improved sharply to win second-up last time here over 1400m. Not sure how much depth there was to that race and this is clearly harder but he is lightly raced and still open to plenty of improvement. First try at the mile here is another query but drawn to get every chance in the run. Can be thereabouts.

Kandahar (3) is a one-paced staying type who did enough first-up in C1 grade when 4th behind Jack’s Choice over 1400m. Suited stepping up to the mile second-up and ideally drawn on the outside of the field. Keeps battling away so a testing track at the end of the day might be up his alley and he has a hope on that basis.

Next best Angora Princess (5) (first try out to 1600m but racing better since being ridden quietly and had excuses last time) and Lady Wynette (8) (not bad at every run this prep so not the worst at odds).

Verdict

Zuberina (12) appeals as the logical top pick here in the last. Ramaadi Bullet (4) is racing well and is a genuine danger while Country Way (2) looks best of the on-pacers.

STAKING STRATEGY

 BACK – 5 units to win on Zuberina (12)

 BACK – 2 units to win on Ramaadi Bullet (4).

 


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