FEATURE PREVIEWS: TANCRED STAKES

Dean Evans provides his 2024 Tancred Stakes tips and in-depth analysis. The Tancred Stakes is a Group 1 race won in recent years by some quality stayers including Sir Dragonet, Verry Elleegant, Avilius, Almandin, Jameka, Preferment, Hartnell, Silent Achiever & Manighar.

AUTHOR

Dean Evans

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TANCRED STAKES

G1 race won in recent years by some quality stayers including Sir Dragonet, Verry Elleegant, Avilius, Almandin, Jameka, Preferment, Hartnell, Silent Achiever, Duais & Manighar.

Historical Profiling (last 12 years)

1st/2nd up (0/14), 3rd up (3/36), 4th up (6/47), 5th up (3/18), 6th up+ (0/10)
7-day break (3/28), 14-day break (7/67), 21-day break (1/14)
Settled 1st-3rd (4), Settled 5th-6th (5), Settled 8th-9th (2)
Geldings (6/70), Horses (2/31), Mares (4/22)
3yo (1/4), 4yo (5/28), 5yo (3/32), 6yo (2/32), 7yo+ (1/29)
Average Prizemoney Index 5-50k (2/77), 60k+ (10/48)
Barriers 1-6 (10/72), Barriers 7-14 (2/53)
Bowman (3), Mcdonald (3), Mcevoy (1), Rawiller (1), Nolen (1), Parr (1)
SP Rank 1-2 (11/24), SP 3-14 (1/101)
SP $1.60-$5.50 (11), $14 (1)
Same jockey last start No (3/61), Yes (9/64)
Won at Rosehill No (4/81), Yes (8/44)
Last start favourite No (7/104), Yes (5/21)
Last start finishing position 1 (7/20), 2-4 (5/51), 5+ (0/56)
Last start class G1 (10/68), G2/G3/LR (2/52), Other (0/5)
Last start state VIC (4/26), NSW (8/89), Other (0/10)

Hard fit on pacers with proven G1 staying ability at 2400m+ come to the fore in this race.
11 of the past 12 winners have come out of the Ranvet or Australian Cup
5 of the last 11 winners were leading on the turn, with no winner worse than 7th on the turn.

SPEED MAP

Slow speed anticipated here with Gear Up, Military Mission, Tom Kitten, Bois D’argent and Athabascan (wide) pushing on speed.
Kalapour, Ashrun & Buckaroo back of midfield.
More Felons & Post Impressionist out the back.

TANCRED STAKES | KEY RUNNERS

1. Buckaroo – Stuck on well for 3rd in the Ranvet Stakes. 2400m the query.

2. Military Mission – Has kept improving each prep. Has progressed from winning a Taree Cup, to a Hobart Cup, to a Newcastle Cup to a Herbert Power to a Zipping Classic. Was a solid 5th in the Ranvet Stakes and step up to 2400m ideal.

3. Ashrun – 2nd in the Geelong Cup then 4th in the Melbourne Cup last prep. Won the Pakenham Cup comfortably last start. Right in this.

4. More Felons – Was a close 5th in the Geelong Cup last prep. Won the Parramatta Cup first up. In the mix.

5. Post Impressionist – On the positive the trainer (and jockey in combo) has an incredible record here in Australia. The closing sectionals last week were very impressive. On the negative, is on the 7 day back-up after a first up run, gets a long way back in a race with little tempo, and meets a substantially stronger field than last week.

11. Tom Kitten – Spring Champion winner in the Spring. Was disappointing in the Rosehill Guineas last start.

SUMMARY

Military Mission & Ashrun look good bets here.
More Felons can surprise.
Post Impressionist, Tom Kitten & Buckaroo all appear under the odds.