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Track: Newcastle | Distance: 2400m | Condition: WFA | Rail Position: True 400m-Winning Post; +2m Remainder | Condition: Soft 7 | Prizemoney: $1,500,000
Potentially some rain forecast through the day which could impact the track rating. May improve initially with an upgrade, and then could get downgraded if the rain comes.
A Group 1 race won in recent years by some quality stayers including Sir Dragonet, Verry Elleegant, Avilius, Almandin, Jameka, Preferment, Hartnell, Silent Achiever & Manighar.
Historical Profiling: Last 10 Years
- 3rd up (3 winners), 4th up (4 winners), 5th up (3 winners)
- 7-day break (3 winners), 14-day break (6 winners), 21-day break (1 winner)
- Settled 1st-3rd (4 winners), Settled 5th-6th (4 winners), Settled 8th (1 winner)
- Geldings (5 winners), Horses (2 winners), Mares (3 winners)
- 3yo (1 winner), 4yo (4 winners), 5yo (3 winners), 6yo (1 winner), 7yo (0 winners), 8yo (1 winner)
- Bowman (3 winners), McDonald (3 winners), Boss (1 winner), McEvoy (1 winner), Rawiller (1 winner), Nolen (1 winner)
Historical Profiling: Wet Tracks
- 4th up (3 winners), 5th up (2 winners)
- 7-day break (2 winners), 14-day break (3 winners)
- Settled 1st-3rd (3 winners), Settled 5th-6th (2 winners)
- Geldings (2 winners), Mares (3 winners)
- 3yo (1 winner), 4yo (2 winners), 5yo (2 winners)
Historical Profiling: Key Notes
- Hard fit on-pacers with proven G1 staying ability at 2400m+ come to the fore in this race.
- Every winner in the past 10 years has come out of the Ranvet Stakes or Australian Cup.
- 5 of the last 9 winners were leading on the turn, with no winner worse than 6th on the turn.
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SPEED MAP RACING TIPS
Slow speed anticipated here. Angel Of Truth maps to get an easy lead. Spanish Mission, Think It Over & Sheraz push forward. Mightybeel and Stockman back of midfield. Duais, The Chosen One & She’s Ideel out the back.
TANCRED STKAES | KEY RUNNERS + RACING TIPS
1. Think It Over – Unproven over 2400m and doesn’t like it very wet. Lay.
2. Spanish Mission – Proven high-class stayer coming here 3rd up off a solid enough 3rd in the Australian Cup. Only 3rd up here and heavy ground doesn’t appear ideal for him.
3. The Chosen One – High quality NZ stayer trained by the master Murray Baker. Group 1 winner who is also Sydney Cup & Caulfield Cup placed. Handles the wet.
4. Stockman – Proven stayer who loves the wet ground. Up in grade but capable of measuring up in the conditions.
5. Great House – Another proven stayer. The further the better and handles wet ground. Up in grade but another who can figure here.
6. Angel Of Truth – Another proven stayer and a mudlark. Capable.
7. Sheraz – Has good staying form in France on wet tracks. Has been solid in first 2 runs this prep and gets up to a more suitable trip.
10. She’s Ideel – Ran 2nd in this race to Sir Dragonet last year. Going as well this year and handles the wet.
11. Duais – Australian Cup & Queensland Oaks winner, who ran 2nd in the Australian Oaks. Flying this prep.
Duais ticks all the boxes from a historical profiling perspective.
The Chosen One and Angel Of Truth are decent value.
Spanish Mission a key danger but the wet track is a query so risking him.
DEAN EVANS’ TOP 5 SELECTIONS
11 – Duais
3 – The Chosen One
6 – Angel Of Truth
2 – Spanish Mission
TANCRED STAKES | BETTING STRATEGY
BACK (WIN) — Duais for 1 unit
BACK (WIN) — The Chosen One for 0.5 units
BACK (WIN) — Angel Of Truth for 0.5 units
Units Outlayed: 266.2
Units Returned: 283.7
Profit On Turnover: 6.6%