Your Expert Super Rugby Tips

Throughout the Super Rugby season, the Analysts will be providing their Super Rugby Tips for every round.

They’ll give their expert preview on the game, along with providing their best selection, exclusive to the Betfair Hub.

Go where the value is on the Super Rugby and head to the Betfair Exchange.

Reds v Waratahs

The Waratahs have played Australian teams twice this season and were roundly thumped in both, going down 24-10 to the hapless Rebels and 47-14 to the Brumbies. They have lost five of six by 14-plus points this season and have conceded 47 or more in their last two. The Reds’ only clash with an Australian opponent was a 27-24 loss to the Brumbies in Week 1. The Waratahs have won 11 straight against the Reds but these two teams are heading in opposite directions.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Reds -3.5

Highlanders v Crusaders

The Highlanders seem to be an underrated proposition through three weeks of the NZ Super Rugby. They shocked the Chiefs and then ran the Blues to three points. The Crusaders thrashed the Hurricanes but were well held by the Chiefs. The Crusaders have generally been played close by local teams the last three years.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Highlanders +9.5

Brumbies v Rebels

The 2020 version of the Brumbies looks the best version of the team in a generation. They have won five of six this year with their only loss coming to the Highlanders. They have won five of their last six against Australian teams by 11 or more points. The Rebels went down 39-26 to the Brumbies this year and that is unlikely to be turned around.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Brumbies -7.5

Blues v Highlanders

After so long in the wilderness, often the whipping boys and laughingstock of New Zealand Rugby, the Blues are riding high. The acquisition of Beauden Barrett, the excitement caused by bringing in Dan Carter and two straight double-digit wins have the Auckland team riding high. They have been super impressive in downing the Hurricanes 30-20 at home before going to Hamilton to beat the Chiefs 24-12.

The Highlanders stunned the Chiefs in Week 1 and come off the bye. It is hard to see them travelling to Auckland and getting close with the Blues in such strong nick.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Blues -9.5

Crusaders v Chiefs

Warren Gatland’s Chiefs have been a major disappointment in 2020 with injuries rattling the team. The Chiefs went down to both the Brumbies and the Hurricanes before losing their opening two games of the local competition, conceding 24-plus in both games. A team once revered for its defence, they have allowed 24 or more points in four of their last five.

The Crusaders opened their local campaign with a 14-point win over the Hurricanes thanks to a blitzing finish to the game. The Chiefs have not got within 14 points of the Crusaders in Christchurch since 2016.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Crusaders -9.5

Chiefs v Blues

The Chiefs were terribly disappointing in going down to the Highlanders while the Blues lived up to the pre-season buzz. Beauden Barrett was solid enough on debut as the Aucklanders look to re-establish themselves as a force in NZ. The Chiefs have now lost three of their last four with Warren Gatland’s team looking sluggish. The ascendant Blues are the play here as an underdog.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Blues +1.5

Hurricanes v Crusaders

The Crusaders kick off their campaign this week and will be champing at the bit after opening the season with a bye. The Hurricanes were arguably the most disappointing team of Round 1 with ill discipline costing them the win against the Blues. Sky Stadium hosts this week but the Crusaders have won five straight against the Canes with four of those being by double digits.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Crusaders -6.5

Highlanders v Chiefs

It is hard to get enthusiastic in any way about the Highlanders. They were a lowly 1-4 before the season was interrupted with their only win a one-point victory against the Brumbies in Canberra. The Chiefs are 4-2 and boast a much stronger resume. The Chiefs typically boast a long injury list but look to be at nearly full health. Warren Gatland’s team are unbeaten in their against the Highlanders.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Chiefs -8.5

Blues v Hurricanes

The Blues have been in the headlines following the signing of Dan Carter after enjoying their best Super Rugby season in many years with five wins from their first seven games, including a 24-15 win over the Hurricanes. The Hurricanes were 4-2 and have won their last two road games. The lack of an All Blacks No.10 though is a concern for the Hurricanes. The Blues can go a long way in this competition and will get off to a flyer here.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Blues -3.5

Brumbies v Waratahs

The Waratahs have been immensely disappointing this year but they have historically played the Brumbies tight and this one can finish well within the large handicap. The Brumbies won both games last year but by margins of six and 11 while they have suffered just two losses of 13-plus since 2013 against their rivals. The Brumbies’ only win of 13-plus this year came against the Sunwolves.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Waratahs +12.5

Chiefs v Hurricanes

The Chiefs have been largely untroubled this year, with the exception of their loss to the Brumbies, and none of their four wins has finished within a converted try. There is not much question that the Crusaders are significantly superior to the Hurricanes, who went down to the Blues last week. Laying just 6.5 is a gift based on history, not form.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Chiefs -6.5

Sunwolves v Crusaders

The Sunwolves can and should be taken on at every opportunity. They will not get near another team for the remainder of the season. They have lost each of their last three by 33 or more points and conceded at least 47 in each. They are bad and getting worse.

The Crusaders have not put a team to the sword this year so will be jonesing to release the shackles while they do have a 47-point win against the Japanese team in one of their two meetings.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Crusaders -40.5

Hurricanes v Blues

The Hurricanes have won nine straight against the Blues with only two of those by under a try so more than happy to bet the Wellington team here. The Canes have won three on end and have won four straight home games, three by seven or more. The Blues have won three of five this year but their two defeats have come to New Zealand teams. Class will prevail.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Hurricanes -5.5

Sunwolves v Brumbies

So the deal with the Sunwolves is pretty simple: they are awful and getting worse and bookmakers cannot put up lines big enough. After a shock win at home over the Rebels in Week 1, they have lost the next three by margins of 26 at home to the Chiefs, 59 away to the Reds and 47 away to the Hurricanes.

They have conceded 50-plus in four of their last eight. The Brumbies downed them by 23 and 33 last season and the gap is significantly wider in 2020.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Brumbies -28.5

Waratahs v Chiefs

The Chiefs have not defeated the Waratahs by any less than 12 since 2016. The Waratahs come into this off their first win of the season, a home win over the hapless Lions, but they seem to be a very ordinary outfit. The Chiefs suffered a shock home loss to the Brumbies. The Waratahs have won just two of eight home games. The minus looks good.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Chiefs -10.5

Hurricanes v Sunwolves

After an inauspicious start to their 2020 campaign with a humiliating 27-0 road loss to the Stormers, the Hurricanes have bounced back with strong wins against the Jaguares and Sharks. They host the hapless Sunwolves this week in Napier. It is going to be a long night and long trip for the Japanese outfit following a 64-5 defeat to the Reds. The Hurricanes are far superior and should put a big number on the Sunwolves.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Hurricanes -32.5

Highlanders v Rebels

It is typically money to bet New Zealand teams against Australian rivals but the Rebels present as excellent value. The Highlanders have struggled to blow teams away this year. The Highlanders have won just one of three this year and that was a post-win against the Brumbies. The Rebels have won just one of four this year but their biggest loss is just 13. The Highlanders won the last meeting between the two teams.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Rebels +10.5

Waratahs v Lions

The Lions have dropped two of three this year but there is no shame in a loss away to the Jaguares and a close home loss to the Stormers. The Waratahs have been horrendous in three losses including a shocking defeat to the Rebels last week. They have lost their last four home games by eight points or more. The Lions have won all five contests against the Waratahs dating back to 2015.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Lions

Crusaders v Highlanders

The Crusaders have dominated the Highlanders in recent meetings, downing their South Island rivals by margins of 26 and 24 in the last two meetings. They have won six of the last seven meetings with four wins by 17-plus. The Crusaders have won two of their last three by 17 or more. The Highlanders come off a mediocre one-point win over the Brumbies.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Crusaders -15.5

Rebels v Sharks

The Rebels are not a good team. They have beaten just the Waratahs this year and have been beaten by the Sunwolves. The Sharks did win away to the Highlanders and rolled the Bulls in Week 1. The Sharks have lost just once in the last five seasons to the Rebels. This line is completely wrong.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Sharks -1.5

Stormers v Jaguares

The Jaguares have backed up their run to the final last season with two wins in their opening three games this year. The Jaguares have won 12 straight away from New Zealand. The Stormers have shut out both teams at home this year but a defensive scrap is exactly what the Jaguares are looking for.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Jaguares +4.5

Blues v Crusaders

The Crusaders have won 10 straight against the Blues. Eight of those have been by margins of 8 or greater. It would take a game bettor to suggest the Crusaders won’t cover 7.5 this week against a Blues team that just does not beat its fellow New Zealand teams. The Blues are 2-7 against New Zealand teams the last two years.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Crusaders -7.5

Brumbies v Highlanders

Betting Kiwi teams to beat and cover Australian Super Rugby teams is, as one tweeter so eloquently put it, “my superannuation policy”. Even though the Highlanders were blown off the park at home last week, they absolutely get the nod getting 5.5 points against the Brumbies in Canberra this week.

The Highlanders have won 12 of their last 15 against Australian Conference teams and have won four straight against the Brumbies, all by five or more points.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Highlanders +5.5

Jaguares v Reds

The Jaguares were stunned by a big showing in a major bounceback spot by the Hurricanes last week but should get it much easier against a Reds team that has hardly inspired in two losses. The Jaguares have won seven straight against Australian Conference teams and have won 9 of 11 home games.

The Reds have won just 1 of their last 8 overall and don’t travel well. Expect a ruthless Jaguares response.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Jaguares -12.5

Jaguares v Hurricanes

The Jaguares picked up where they left off last year with a dominant 38-8 home win over the Lions while the Hurricanes were horrific in a 27-0 road loss to the Stormers that sent alarm bells ringing around Wellington.

The Jaguares won by eight points in Wellington last year and there is no doubt the gap between the two teams is bigger now than it was late last season. A major blowout would not surprise here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Jaguares -6.5

Brumbies v Rebels

The Rebels were horrific against the Sunwolves, completely horrific. They have won four straight against the Brumbies though and seven of the last 11.

They have had the Brumbies’ number the last two years and the Brumbies are significantly overvalued this week in a dramatic overreaction to last week’s loss. The Brumbies only snuck by the Reds in Round 1.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Rebels +7.5

Chiefs v Crusaders

The Chiefs did the right thing by bettors by rolling the Blues in Auckland while the Crusaders started their campaign for an historic fourth straight title with a comfortable win over the Waratahs. Despite being early in the season this might be a crucial matchup in determining who tops the NZ Conference at the season’s end.

The Chiefs again present as value as a home underdog. The Chiefs have won 5 of 6 at home and the Crusaders have won just 2 of 5 road games.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chiefs +3.5

Sunwolves v Rebels

Betting against the Sunwolves all year will be common practice. The team has been gutted from the side that won just two games last year and could be the worst squad to turn out in Super Rugby history. The Rebels have never beaten the Sunwolves by less than 20 including two appearances outside Australia. This will be the first of many massacres the Sunwolves face this year.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Rebels -17.5

Jaguares v Lions

The Jaguares are the real deal in 2020 and should be able to back up their stellar 2019 season. They won three of their last four home games by 20-plus points. The Lions won just 1 of their last 5 road games last year and are net losers with their transfer list. The Jaguares can hold the Lions to 14 or fewer and that should be enough to cover.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Jaguares -8.5

Blues v Chiefs

Very keen on the revamped Chiefs under Warren Gatland this year and the Blues are typically slow starters, dropping their last two and four of their last six season openers. The Blues have also been horrific against NZ opposition, going 1-20-1 over the last three years. The Chiefs shape as being significantly more disciplined this year and will be too battle-hardened for another Blues team destined to disappoint.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chiefs -2.5

The 2020 Super Rugby season is upon us as the Crusaders chase their fourth straight title and New Zealand looks for six straight Super Rugby championships.

Australian Conference

Australian Rugby is in all sorts of strife and there is no interest in taking the shorts about either the Rebels or Brumbies to win. The Waratahs look the value to take the Australian Conference. Rob Penney is a significant upgrade at coach and there have been some good recruits including Rugby League player Tepai Moeroa. Off a base of six wins, the Waratahs can improve enough to win nine games, that will be enough to take the Aussie slot.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Waratahs to Win Australian Conference at $7.00

New Zealand Conference

The Crusaders have won three straight titles and are rightly favoured to make it a record four straight. There are some vulnerabilities at Canterbury though, none moreso than the decimation to the forward pack following the departures of Kieran Read, Owen Franks and Matt Todd, who have a combined 251 All Blacks Caps between them. Warren Gatland takes the Chiefs reins this year and he should add a sense of class to a squad that has been knocking on the door. Aaron Cruden’s return is also a major plus. Gatland is a renowned defensive mastermind and that is the area the Chiefs need to improve on after posting the third-most points last year.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chiefs to Win NZ Conference at $3.40

 BACK – Chiefs to Win Super Rugby Final at $4.90

South African Conference

The Jaguares came of age last year. The Argentinian team recorded 11 wins and reached their first Super Rugby final. They will take so much from last year as the side has become accustomed to the week-in and week-out rigour of Super Rugby as well as the significant travel demands. There has been little change to the squad and that continuity holds them in strong stead. With one of the strongest home-field advantages, happy to side with the Jaguares to win a weak conference.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Jaguares to Win SA Conference at $2.18

Other Bets

Most Losses: Sunwolves
There is absolutely no spoil about the price but there is no doubt the Sunwolves will struggle this year in what will be the franchise’s last appearance. The Sunwolves have seen their squad decimated and coach Tony Brown has departed. They are 8-53 all-time in Super Rugby and have never won more than three games in a year.

To Miss Playoffs: Rebels
David Wessell’s team has lost a ton of experience with Quade Cooper and Will Genia among a host of big-names departing. The franchise has never had a winning season in nine since joining Super Rugby. More than happy to take black odds about the Rebels missing the finals.

Top Tryscorer: Ngani Laumape 
Hurricanes inside centre Ngani Laumape scored 13 tries last year and finished second on the ladder. He will be a big beneficiary of a free-flowing Hurricanes team.

Current results

Total Units Staked: 27.00

Total Units Returned: 29.25

ROI: 8.33%

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