Summer of Cricket: Expert Trading Selections

Matt Barker, a pro cricket trader will be providing his best cricket trading selections and analysis for selected games during the summer and his thoughts at the end of play.

Trading on Cricket (learn the basics HERE) can be difficult but with the right trading advice, you can learn what to look for and how to approach it.

Matt Barker has done a customer insights article on the Betfair Hub. You can learn more about him and his approach to cricket trading here.

Score: England 499/9d

SA 60/2

Recap

England played reasonably well on a good flat wicket on day 1 and managed to push on on day 2. From 220/4 overnight, Stokes and Pope both got hundreds and pushed towards 400 before some lower order slogging got them to what should be a winning score.

South Africa did ok early vs the seamers and looked likely to head to the sheds none down, but were undone late by the spin of Bess.

Trading Strategy Going Forward

I’m not convinced by the rain talk over the coming days. It’s not easy to predict rain in this part of the world and the sites I use have varying % chances from 10-60. Remember this only means the chance of 1 drop of rain falling in the area. Annoyingly I’m not convinced wickets will fall quickly either. This isn’t a deck that is too tough to bat on and it should be hard work for England.

I do think they’ll get the job done in the end, however they drifted to north of $3 on that opening partnership and there’s every chance we see a much bigger price for them again. Any partnership plus the chances of bad light and / or rain will mean the draw tanks.

As I’m away at the moment I’m not heavily involved in either of these outcomes. I’ve laid Sa in the 20s for my bank and had a small draw back to lay lower on the draw. If watching and trading every ball I’d almost certainly be involved on the draw here as I can see it trading odds on quickly and heavily odds on in time. We could easily see a similar pattern to Cape Town where the draw trades low and England win.

Summary

So in summary you can either back the draw here and begin to lay off at odds on. Wait for a potential wicket of Nortje early and back the draw bigger there or wait for $2.60+ England to back that.

 BACK – The draw $2.32, look to trade as England go odds against and head towards $3 on a partnership.

 LAY-  SA at any price $20 and below as they can’t really win.

Score: England 269 and 218/4

SA 223

Recap of Day 3

After getting to 157/3 and trading $1.50, South Africa completely imploded. It was more inept batting and it genuinely appears neither side can bat under pressure. They conceded a lead of 46 and basically conceded all major pressure in the match.

England was able to get a start and now lead by 264 with 6 wickets remaining. It’s highly unlikely that even they can lose from here and it will set the series up nicely at 1-1 heading to Port Elizabeth.

Trading Strategy Going Forward

England are currently rated a $1.25 chance and that probably accurately reflects their current chances of winning the game. There should be a decent chance of them trading bigger though. South Africa is about to have a new ball and should they strike quickly, they could run through England and set up a chase of around 330-350.

While I don’t think they will get those, the market could believe at some point and the current odds of $1.25 could easily get north of $1.50. Given there is no rain forecast I really don’t see the draw as an option, so we can get a little funky with trades here.

Starting with a lay of England at $1.25, we can look to add a lay of the draw around $6 and a back of South Africa north of $15. Personally I’ll be looking to add draw lays as it gets shorter.

This South African side isn’t built to bat out a draw. Their best chance of a positive result is chasing down a score, however unlikely that may be.

Look for draw lays and South Africa backs as the day progresses as above.

 LAY – England at $1.25.


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