Stradbroke Handicap Preview, Saturday 11th June 2016

Current Track Rating: Good 4

Rail: +3m

Weather Forecast:

Friday 10th – Max 23°C. Sunny

Saturday 11th – Max 25°C. Partly cloudy

R9 Stradbroke Handicap Group 1 1400m

Race Profile

  • 6 of last 10 winner’s have come through the Doomben 10,000
  • Last 6 winner’s 3rd up or deeper into their preparation
  • Only 1 favourite has won in the past 10 years
  • Only 1 horse has won carrying 55.5kg or more in the past 10 years

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Good 3, Rail +0.5 (Doomben)

1st Srikandi – BR 1 53kg SP $12 – 4th up (6th Doomben 10,000 G1 1350m)

2nd Boban – BR 6 58kg SP $16 – 2nd up (1st Doomben 10,000 G1 1350m)

3rd Generalife – BR 15 54.5kg SP $12 – 4th up (3rd Doomben 10,000 G1 1350m

 1st River Lad – Barrier 15, 55 kg SP $31 – 3rd up (1st BRC Sprint Gp 3 1200m Doomben)

 2nd Temple Of Boom – Barrier 14, 56kg SP $26 – 6th up (2nd Doomben 10,000 G1 1350m)

 3rd Srikandi – Barrier 13, 51kg SP $6 – 7th up (1st Glenlogan Park Gp 3 1350m Doom)

1st Linton – Barrier 16, 54.5kg SP $26 Rtg – 4wk freshen, 4th up (1st RA Lee Gp 3 1600m Morp)

2nd Buffering – Barrier 4, 58kg SP $6.5 Rtg – 4th up (3rd Doomben 10,000 1350m)

3rd Streama – Barrier 11, 54.5 kg SP $11 Rtg – 5wk freshen (4th Doncaster Gp1 1600m Rand)

Mid Summer Music – Barrier 5, 53.5kg SP $31 Rtg 105 – 5th up (9th Doomben 10,000 G1 1350m)

Sincero – Barrier 3, 50.5kg SP $7.5 Rtg 95 – 4th up (11th QTC Cup Gp 2 1300m EFarm)

Major Players

1. Black Heart Bart: The top weight in red hot form coming from the strong All Aged Stakes and getting the job done over in Adelaide in the Group 1 Goodwood. He’s got history against him with only one of the past ten winners of the Stradbroke carrying more than 55.5 kg to victory. Buffering almost did it in 2013 and Boban was gallant last year at Doomben. He looks a good chance but is under the odds in early betting.

3. Malaguerra: Broke through for his first Group One in the BTC Cup.  He toughed it out like a good horse and although this race is likely to rate much higher his past performances over 1400m say he’s capable running to the required level. With the speed drawn outside him he’s likely to be given a dream cart across to travel on the fence or at worse one off in running. This has been his target event since he kicked off his preparation and I’m much happier to be with Hugh Bowman at Eagle Farm. If Tegan Harrison drops the pace off for a section mid race, this is the galloper who could benefit most.

4. Music Magnate: He won his maiden Group 1 in the Doomben 10,000 which has been the best lead up to this race to the Stradbroke, supplying six of the last ten winners of this race. This years Doomben 10,000 was run at a ridiculous 20 lengths above average early and Music Magnate was able to come over the top of them. Hopefully his fitness advantage allows him to back up from that gut busting race and the 3.5kg weight drop can only help.

5. Azkadellia: Like Music Magnate, she comes via the gut busting Doomben 10,000, which was run at an extraordinary pace. She’s drawn well and drops weight and was probably a touch underdone (49 days between runs) prior to the 10,000. She is a mare that appreciates the sting out and by all reports she wont get that on Saturday. A good chance and has proven to come through ‘redline’ runs unblemished. She’s the obvious horse to beat but will need luck given how far back she’s likely to sit in running.

7. Under The Louvre: On paper he looks to have a great chance to turn the tables on Black Heart Bart with a 2kg weight swing his way after a fast finishing second in the Goodwood. He’s found himself within a length on three occasions at Group 1 level. His record at 1400m is questionable but with the new camber in the track, things could play into his hands.

12. Counterattack: A promising 3YO from the all-conquering Chris Waller yard. He’s been competitive with the likes of Group 1 winner Japonisme at level weights and has always indicated 1400m would be his ideal distance. Perfectly placed, well weighted and we can expect a peak rating that will have him right in the finish. Has the added benefit of avoiding the Doomben 10,000 which could flatten those runners.

15. Kaepernick: A dynamic racehorse on his day, he returned with an impressive run at Scone when taking out The Ortensia eased down by 2.3L. The step from 1100m to 1400m at Group 1 level is too big of a question mark for me and the profile is against horses second up. Genuine raw talent.

Betting Strategy

I’m avoiding the Doomben 10,000 form after most horses were put to the sword. Looking for a better value option than laying Azkadelia who is still the horse to beat.

 BACK (WIN) Counterattack for 3 units at $7 or more.

 BACK (WIN) Malaguerra for 2 units at $10 or more.

 BACK (WIN) Under The Louvre for 1 unit at $14 or more.

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