State Of Origin Tips 2021: Expert Previews

Queensland v New South Wales

We are set to witness Origin history on Sunday night with Queensland set to start as the biggest underdogs in the 41-year history of the series, getting a remarkable 13.5 points on home turf.

There is no doubting that NSW come into this off one of the great Origin performances, putting on 50 in Queensland on the back of two outstanding performances from centres Tom Trbojevic and Latrell Mitchell. This does seem like a strong overreaction though.

Queensland have made some significantly positive changes. Josh Papalii is back in the team. Andrew McCullough adds some hardness and steel in the middle. Ben Hunt is a better fit on the bench. And young Reece Walsh is just the x-factor Queensland need.

The Maroons have won seven of eight at Suncorp while teams off a win by 30-plus points have not won by more than a converted try in each of the last five instances. Queensland are backed into a corner here and this historically has been when they are at their best.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Queensland +13.5

Queensland v New South Wales

Betting in the series opener is quite astonishing with the Maroons an underdog of over a try in Queensland. Series openers have historically been played very close. Nine of the last 11 game one matches have been decided by single digits with five of the last seven decided by a try or less.

With the Maroons having won 12 of the last 14 matches in Queensland, they look an exceptional bet. Team selections also favour the Maroons here. They have undoubtedly upgraded on the team that won a thrilling decider last year.

The Blues have again persisted picking players out of position and look clearly outmatched in the middle. This has all the hallmarks of a Queensland ambush.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Queensland at $2.78

The move of the series opener from Melbourne to Townsville cannot be underestimated. While the city and the stadium make their Origin debuts, they are unmistakably Queensland, more rabid and more uncomfortable than any trip to Suncorp.

Home field advantage cannot be underestimated in modern State of Origin. The last seven matches played away from a neutral ground have been won by the home side while Queensland have won 12 of 14 matches in Queensland.

With two matches in their home state, the significant coaching edge that Paul Green has over Brad Fittler and an upgrade to the side that won the decider in 2020, the Maroons look an excellent bet to claim the 2021 series.

BACK — Queensland 2-1 at $3.35