State Of Origin Tips 2021: Expert Previews

After a miraculous win for Queensland in 2020, our rugby league expert returns with his State of Origin tips for the 2021 season.

With Origin I moving from Melbourne to Townsville, is it advantage Queensland? Or will NSW exact revenge on last season’s 2-1 loss? Our Analyst weighs in with his expert State of Origin tips.

Running at a 10% ROI in his 2021 NRL tips, our expert knows rugby league and as well as anyone. Make sure you check in before all three Origins this year, alongside all of the other betting selections on the Betfair Hub.

Go where the value is for State of Origin and head to the Betfair Exchange.


New South Wales v Queensland

New South Wales may be without the halves pairing that have played so well in the opening two Origins to wrap up the series while the Maroons have named their strongest outfit and astonishingly get a third home Origin but none of it will matter. New South Wales will win and win easily.

They have dominated this series in an almost unprecedented fashion, winning the two games on Queensland turf by 76-6. The Maroons have certainly added more skill in Kalyn Ponga and speed in Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow but both selections do little to counter the speed and dominance the Blues back five bring.

The Maroons are losing the middle because the back five are doing so much running and carrying that the pack is fresh for defence. That is to say nothing of the impact they are having on the scoreboard.

The Blues have scored at least 16 in 11 of 15 and the Maroons just don’t have a big score in them as well as being unable to contain NSW. This has every potential to get ugly, as the previous two have. The Maroons are outclassed, out-coached and out of time.

Betting Strategy

BACK — New South Wales -11.5

Link to market

Queensland v New South Wales

We are set to witness Origin history on Sunday night with Queensland set to start as the biggest underdogs in the 41-year history of the series, getting a remarkable 13.5 points on home turf.

There is no doubting that NSW come into this off one of the great Origin performances, putting on 50 in Queensland on the back of two outstanding performances from centres Tom Trbojevic and Latrell Mitchell. This does seem like a strong overreaction though.

Queensland have made some significantly positive changes. Josh Papalii is back in the team. Andrew McCullough adds some hardness and steel in the middle. Ben Hunt is a better fit on the bench. And young Reece Walsh is just the x-factor Queensland need.

The Maroons have won seven of eight at Suncorp while teams off a win by 30-plus points have not won by more than a converted try in each of the last five instances. Queensland are backed into a corner here and this historically has been when they are at their best.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Queensland +13.5

Queensland v New South Wales

Betting in the series opener is quite astonishing with the Maroons an underdog of over a try in Queensland. Series openers have historically been played very close. Nine of the last 11 game one matches have been decided by single digits with five of the last seven decided by a try or less.

With the Maroons having won 12 of the last 14 matches in Queensland, they look an exceptional bet. Team selections also favour the Maroons here. They have undoubtedly upgraded on the team that won a thrilling decider last year.

The Blues have again persisted picking players out of position and look clearly outmatched in the middle. This has all the hallmarks of a Queensland ambush.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Queensland at $2.78

The move of the series opener from Melbourne to Townsville cannot be underestimated. While the city and the stadium make their Origin debuts, they are unmistakably Queensland, more rabid and more uncomfortable than any trip to Suncorp.

Home field advantage cannot be underestimated in modern State of Origin. The last seven matches played away from a neutral ground have been won by the home side while Queensland have won 12 of 14 matches in Queensland.

With two matches in their home state, the significant coaching edge that Paul Green has over Brad Fittler and an upgrade to the side that won the decider in 2020, the Maroons look an excellent bet to claim the 2021 series.

BACK — Queensland 2-1 at $3.35


Related Articles

Your Expert NRL Tips for 2021

The Analysts give their round by round preview of the 2021 NRL season as well as their betting strategy ...

Betfair Data

If you’re looking to build an AFL, NRL or Super Rugby model, then start with Betfair Data. We share ...

Your Expert Super Rugby Tips

The Analysts provide their Super Rugby Tips throughout the season, giving their expert preview and best selection for games ...