Queensland vs New South Wales

Wednesday May 31st, 8:00pm

Winner: Queensland

Queensland, of course, have dominated Origin over the last decade, winning 10 of the last 11 series including 12 of the last 18 matches. The most telling statistic though is Queensland’s dominance in Brisbane when the series is still alive, winning 10 of the last 11 ‘live’ games at Suncorp. Even in the absence of Johnathan Thurston, the Maroons should be far bigger favourites than they are.

The Maroons have won the last three at Suncorp by double digits and on paper have a far more balanced team. It is hard to overlook the selection of Mitchell Pearce of NSW. Despite his stellar club form, he has won 4 from 15 Origins and never taken part in a winning series. The concerns are heightened by his spine partners of debutant Nathan Peats and James Maloney, who has given away more penalties than any other player this year.

Anthony Milford debuts for Queensland but is ready and a perfect complement for Cooper Cronk. Kicking is critical in Origin and Cronk is a master while is Blues counterparts have question marks over them. All the indicators are pointing to another Maroons win in Game 1.

Betting Strategy

Back – Queensland to Win

Total: Under 32.5

Series openers have been obscenely low-scoring of late with the last four failing to surpass 20 points and the last 6 failing to break 28. Laurie Daley’s teams are averaging just 11.33 points per game since he took over the Blues. There won’t be many points in this one.

Betting Strategy

Back – Under 32.5 Points

Man of the Match: Cameron Smith

Cameron Smith has won more man of the match awards than any other player bar Wally Lewis with five. He has won an award in three of the last four series and the style of game, defensive, tough, through the middle will suit him. Four of Smith’s five man of the match awards have come at Suncorp.

Betting Strategy

 Back Man Of The Match – Cameron Smith

related articles

NRL Prediction Model

Using proven methods, The Data Scientists’ NRL Predictions Model takes a purely statistical approach to predicting NRL outcomes. If ...

Read More

State of Origin 1 Preview

"NSW look primed to win and win well in Melbourne." The Analysts preview game one of this years State ...

Read More

State of Origin 2 Preview

"The line is just too big." The Analysts preview game two of this years State of Origin series.

Read More