The Betfair Insider Eye On Spring: Melbourne Cup Contenders (Pt 3)

THE BETFAIR INSIDER

Melbourne Cup Horses

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 4 of past 5 winners 6yo Horse
  • 5 of past 5 winners have carried < 56.5kg, 4 of past 5 55kg or less
  • 5 of past 5 winners have had a lead up run of 2000m or further in Australia
  • 4 of past 4 winners have been 5th or 6th up
  • 4 of past 5 winners have drawn Barrier 10 or wider
  • 2 of past 5 winners SP favourites

2014 – Rail True, Good 3

1st – Protectionist 5 yo Horse – SP $8 56.5kg BR 10 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 4th Herbert Power G2 2400m Caulfield

2nd – Red Cadeaux – SP $21 57kg BR 14 – 3rd up, 8 week (let up) 7th September Stakes G3 2400 K Park UK

3rd – Who Shot Thebarman – SP $21 55kg BR 12 – 6th up, 2 weeks 13th Caulfield Cup G1 2400m Caulfield

2013 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Fiorente 6 yo Horse –  SP $7 fav 55kg BR 14 – 5th up, 10 days 3rd Cox Plate G1 2040m Moonee Valley

2nd – Red Cadeaux – SP $61 56.5kg BR 23 – 8th up, 7 wk freshen 4th Irish St Leger G1 2800m Curragh

3rd – Mount Athos – SP $13 54 kg BR 22 – 5th up, 10 week (let up) 2nd March Stks Listed 2800m Goodwood

2012 Rail +2m, Good 3

1st – Green Moon 6 yo Horse – SP $20 54.5kg BR 5 – 5th up, 10 days 7th Cox Plate G1 2040m Moonee Valley

2nd – Fiorente – SP $31 53.5kg BR 2 – 6th up, 7 week freshen 4th Prix Foy G2 2400m Longchamp

3rd – Jakkalberry – SP $81 55.5kg BR 19 – 6th up, 3 weeks 13th Caulfield Cup G1 2400m Caulfield

2011 Rail +3m Good 3

1st – Dunaden 6 yo Horse – SP $8.50 fav 54.5kg BR 13 – 6th up, 2 weeks 1st Geelong Cup G3 2400m Geelong

2nd – Red Cadeaux – SP $31 53.5kg BR 15 – 9th up, 7 week freshen 3rd Irish St Leger G1 2800m Curragh

3rd – Lucas Cranach – SP $13 53.5kg BR 11 – 6th up, 2 weeks 5th Caulfield Cup G1 2400m Caulfield

2010 Rail +3m, Soft 6

1st – Americain 6 yo Horse – SP $13 54.5kg BR 11 – 6th up, 2 weeks 1st Geelong Cup G3 2406m Geelong

2nd – Maluckyday – SP $9 51kg BR 5 – 6th up, 3 days 1st Lexus G3 2500m Flemington

3rd – So You Think – SP $3.00 fav 56kg – 6th up, 3 days 1st Mackinnon G1 2000m Flemington

 

MAJOR PLAYERS:

 

 Who Shot Thebarman Who Shot Thebarman (NZ) 7YO Horse

22 Starts: 8 wins 4 placing’s

Prizemoney: $1,338,021
Min/Max-Dist-Win: 1600/3200     1st Up: 5:1-1-0    2nd Up: 5:1-0-0
Firm: 0:0-0-0     Good: 12:6-1-1     Soft: 7:1-2-0     Heavy: 3:1-0-0    Synthetic: 0:0-0-0

Weight: 54.5      International Rating: 114      Qualifying Race: Sydney Cup 2nd G1 3200m 11/04/2015

Overview:

A former Kiwi, Who Shot Thebarman was transferred over to the Waller stable in 2014 and progressed nicely through the grades. In just his first preparation in he made it all the way through to the Melbourne Cup, finishing a brilliant 3rd to Protectionist and Red Cadeaux.
He was then spelled and resumed his next campaign culminating in great runs in the BMW (Hartnell) and then going down in a photo finish to Grand Marshall in the Sydney Cup.

His two runs this time in have been more than satisfactory for a horse that needs every bit of 3200m. He is a more seasoned horse this season and should the competition not turn up with their A-game I can see this galloper once again fighting out the finish.

Likely lead up to Melbourne Cup

Turnbull Stakes, Caulfield Cup , Melbourne Cup.

 

Kingfisher (NZ) 5YO Horse

15 Starts: 3 wins 4 placing’s

Prizemoney: $726,780
Min/Max-Dist-Win: 1600/3200     1st Up: 4:0-0-1    2nd Up: 3:3-0-0
Firm: 0:0-0-0     Good: 11:2-2-1     Soft: 4:2-0-1     Heavy: 0:0-0-0    Synthetic: 0:0-0-0

Weight: 53.0   Key Race: Ascot Gold Cup 2nd G1 4000m 18/06/2015

Overview:

Part of the Aiden O’Brien contingent, Kingfisher heads to Australia on the back of a mixture of bad luck and poor runs. He was beaten by 16L by Order of St George before a 43L defeat by the same horse in the Irish St Leger.

The camp feel that the horse doesn’t put in on wet tracks, but until we see it put in you couldn’t possibly get him in your numbers at this point in time.

Likely lead up to Melbourne Cup

First up into the Melbourne Cup.

 

Big Orange (GB) 5YO Horse

13 Starts: 5 wins 1 placing’s

Prizemoney: $549,822
Min/Max-Dist-Win: 2012/3219     1st Up: 4:1-1-0    2nd Up: 4:2-0-0
Firm: 0:0-0-0     Good: 5:3-0-0     Soft: 5:1-0-0     Heavy: 1:0-0-0    Synthetic: 2:1-1-0

Weight: 55.5     Key Race: Goodwood Cup UK 1st G2 3200m 30/07/2015

Overview:

Big Orange comes through the same staying form from the UK with the likes of Max Dynamite and Trip To Paris. He won the Group 2 Goodwood Cup (3200m) on a dry surface before failing on the wet in the Lonsdale Cup (won by Max Dynamite).

If you excuse his latest failure where he started second pick in the market you can make a good case for him. He’s in the right weight range for the profile of a Cup winner.

He’s lightly raced and appears to be moving into the prime of his career. However, we want to see him in Australia before we jump into the odds at this stage. $50 available on the exchange.

Likely lead up to Melbourne Cup

First up into the Melbourne Cup.

 

our ivanhoe Our Ivanhowe (Ger) 6YO Horse

12 Starts: 5 wins 1 placing’s

Prizemoney: $507,973
Min/Max-Dist-Win: 2200/2400     1st Up: 6:3-1-0    2nd Up: 3:1-0-0
Firm: 1:0-0-0     Good: 8:3-0-0     Soft: 3:2-1-0     Heavy: 0:0-0-0    Synthetic: 0:0-0-0

Weight: 56.0     International Rating: 120     Key Race: Grosser von Peris Bayern GER 1st G1 2400m 1/11/2014

Overview:

Lee Freedman trains this former German galloper. He won the Group 1 Bayern (3200m) back in November 2014.

Lee’s astute and most importantly has found his love for training again. Freedman knows what it takes to win the Cup and gave the galloper a couple of trials and one run last prep just to keep the horse in good condition. He resumed this time in with a quiet run over 2000m and is progressing nicely to the big race.

I think he is going better than most think and has not put a foot wrong since arriving in Australia. He profiles as the Cup Winner and Lee will keep him fresh to keep the speed in his legs.

 

Likely lead up to Melbourne Cup

Caulfield Cup into Melbourne Cup.