The Betfair Insider Eye On Spring: Melbourne Cup Contenders (Pt 2)

THE BETFAIR INSIDER

Melbourne Cup Horses

Profiling the race we learn the following:

  • 4 of past 5 winners 6yo Horse
  • 5 of past 5 winners have carried < 56.5kg, 4 of past 5 55kg or less
  • 5 of past 5 winners have had a lead up run of 2000m or further in Australia
  • 4 of past 4 winners have been 5th or 6th up
  • 4 of past 5 winners have drawn Barrier 10 or wider
  • 2 of past 5 winners SP favourites

 

2014 – Rail True, Good 3

1st – Protectionist 5 yo Horse – SP $8 56.5kg BR 10 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 4th Herbert Power G2 2400m Caulfield

2nd – Red Cadeaux – SP $21 57kg BR 14 – 3rd up, 8 week (let up) 7th September Stakes G3 2400 K Park UK

3rd – Who Shot Thebarman – SP $21 55kg BR 12 – 6th up, 2 weeks 13th Caulfield Cup G1 2400m Caulfield

 

2013 Rail True, Good 3

1st – Fiorente 6 yo Horse –  SP $7 fav 55kg BR 14 – 5th up, 10 days 3rd Cox Plate G1 2040m Moonee Valley

2nd – Red Cadeaux – SP $61 56.5kg BR 23 – 8th up, 7 wk freshen 4th Irish St Leger G1 2800m Curragh

3rd – Mount Athos – SP $13 54 kg BR 22 – 5th up, 10 week (let up) 2nd March Stks Listed 2800m Goodwood

 

2012 Rail +2m, Good 3

1st – Green Moon 6 yo Horse – SP $20 54.5kg BR 5 – 5th up, 10 days 7th Cox Plate G1 2040m Moonee Valley

2nd – Fiorente – SP $31 53.5kg BR 2 – 6th up, 7 week freshen 4th Prix Foy G2 2400m Longchamp

3rd – Jakkalberry – SP $81 55.5kg BR 19 – 6th up, 3 weeks 13th Caulfield Cup G1 2400m Caulfield

 

2011 Rail +3m Good 3

1st – Dunaden 6 yo Horse – SP $8.50 fav 54.5kg BR 13 – 6th up, 2 weeks 1st Geelong Cup G3 2400m Geelong

2nd – Red Cadeaux – SP $31 53.5kg BR 15 – 9th up, 7 week freshen 3rd Irish St Leger G1 2800m Curragh

3rd – Lucas Cranach – SP $13 53.5kg BR 11 – 6th up, 2 weeks 5th Caulfield Cup G1 2400m Caulfield

 

2010 Rail +3m, Soft 6

1st – Americain 6 yo Horse – SP $13 54.5kg BR 11 – 6th up, 2 weeks 1st Geelong Cup G3 2406m Geelong

2nd – Maluckyday – SP $9 51kg BR 5 – 6th up, 3 days 1st Lexus G3 2500m Flemington

3rd – So You Think – SP $3.00 fav 56kg – 6th up, 3 days 1st Mackinnon G1 2000m Flemington

 

MAJOR PLAYERS:

 

protectionist Protectionist (GER) 6YO Horse

16 Starts: 5 wins 4 placing’s

Prizemoney: $4,170,160
Min/Max-Dist-Win: 1600/3200     1st Up: 6:1-2-1    2nd Up: 4:1-1-0
Firm: 0:0-0-0     Good: 8:2-2-0     Soft: 7:2-1-1     Heavy: 1:1-0-0    Synthetic: 0:0-0-0

Weight: 58.0     International Rating: 120       Key Race: Melbourne Cup 1st G1 3200m 4/11/2014

Overview:

Last year’s Melbourne Cup winner is looking to defend his title which has proven a tough ask for many before him.

Protectionist looked ‘on track’ last campaign with a bold effort when only beaten 2.2L to Hartnell in the BMW, but true believers were left shattered after he failed in the Group 1 Sydney Cup 3200m, eased down to be beaten 16L on that day.

Since resuming this time in its fair to say that Protectionist is once again progressing well, beaten six lengths in last weekend’s George Main Stakes. It was the performance of a dower stayer who needs every bit of the 3200m.

But can he defend his Melbourne Cup? At $31 on the exchange, you couldn’t rule him out. He only has to carry 1.5kg more this year (58kg) but for all things to fall in place you would need to see him hitting the line hard before you could get over enthused at this point.

After his first up run i could of entertained him in the Caulfield Cup as a knockout runner but need to see him again in the Turnbull Stakes.

 

Likely lead up to Melbourne Cup

Turnbull Stakes (2000m), Caulfield Cup (2400m), into Melbourne Cup.

 

Order of St George (IRE) 4YO Horse

9 Starts: 4 wins 3 placing’s

Prizemoney: $433,608
Min/Max-Dist-Win: 1609/2816     1st Up: 2:0-1-0    2nd Up: 2:1-1-0
Firm: 0:0-0-0     Good: 5:2-1-0     Soft: 4:2-2-0     Heavy: 0:0-0-0    Synthetic: 0:0-0-0

Weight: 54.0    Key Race: Irish St Leger IRE 1st G1 28oom 13/9/2015

Overview: 

The Aidan O’Brien trained 4YO is a serious horse and has the right credentials to be running in a Melbourne Cup. The horse has won his last 3 races including the Group 1 Irish St Ledger (2816m) at his latest outing by an ever widening 11 lengths.

Prior to this Order of St George won the St Ledger trial by 7.5L (Group 3) and his start prior by 5.5L.

They say you need a progressive horse to win the Melbourne Cup. If that is the case then Order of St George at around the $20 mark should seriously be considered especially if he officially steps foot on the plane. He’s in Quarantine and the only knock i have on him is trying to win the race first up. Aidan won the Cox Plate with Adelaide 1st up last year? Now the Cup?

 

Likely lead up to Melbourne Cup

Unsure but first up into the Melbourne Cup is most likely.

 

Bondi Beach (IRE) 4YO Horse

5 Starts: 3 wins 2 placing’s

Prizemoney: $438,897
Min/Max-Dist-Win: 2414/2816     1st Up: 1:1-0-0    2nd Up: 1:0-1-0
Firm: 1:0-1-0     Good: 2:1-1-0     Soft: 1:0-1-0     Heavy: 1:1-0-0    Synthetic: 0:0-0-0

Weight: 52.5      Key Race: English St Leger 1st G1 2900m 12/9/2015

Overview:

The most lightly raced runner in betting and is full of untapped potential.

Bondi Beach is another of Aiden O’Briens runners who has been put into quarantine for a tilt at our richest race and he looks almost as lethal as Order of St George.

At his latest outing at Doncaster we won the Group 1 British St Ledger Stakes (2937m) in a controversial protest decision after a 300m long bumping duel with eventual runner up Simple Verse (result has since been changed). Prior to that he ran a bold second placing in the Voltigeur Stakes (Group 2) with five lengths back to third place.

Weighted to win with 52.5kg this an up and comer with serious staying potential and could be right in the finish if he travels well. The $29 on offer appears short given he’s had 5 career starts and looking to defy all records and logic.

 

Likely lead up to Melbourne Cup

Unsure but first up into the Melbourne Cup is most likely.

 

preferment Preferment (Aus) 4YO Horse

13 Starts: 2 wins 5 placing’s

Prizemoney: $1,200,905
Min/Max-Dist-Win: 2000/2500     1st Up: 3:0-0-0    2nd Up: 3:1-0-1
Firm: 0:0-0-0     Good: 7:1-3-0     Soft: 5:1-0-1     Heavy: 1:0-1-0    Synthetic: 0:0-0-0

Weight: 53.5    International Rating: 116    Key Race: Victoria Derby 1st G1 2500m 30/10/2014

Overview:

Chris Waller’s Preferment is progressing nicely to a crack at the spring staying features.

The VRC Derby winner appears to have made that next step after taking out the Group 2 Hill Stakes over 2000m last weekend. It was a good staying performance fighting back off the canvass to Magic Hurricane after clearly being headed at the 200m. What is most impressive was the fact that Preferment was only second up and we all know how Chris Waller likes to take his time with his horses.

Perhaps he is one of the locals with the best chances with his lightly raced profile heading towards ‘the Cup’.

We will learn a lot more about his credentials as he tackles tougher grades on the way through.

 

Likely lead up to Melbourne Cup

Yet to be confirmed, Turbull, Caulfield Cup into Melbourne Cup.