Your Expert Soccer Predictions for EPL 2018/19

They’re veterans of the Betfair Hub and we’re happy to announce that Football Form Labs are giving their Soccer Predictions for the 2018/19 Premier League season. With one of the most extensive football databases on the market, you can be sure that each and every bet recommendation is backed up by significant statistical evidence.

For those new to The Betfair Hub, Form Labs provided expert analysis on every single game over the 2018 World Cup. You can view their insight here.

Go where the value is for the English Premier League and head to the Betfair Exchange.


What Can You Expect This Season?

Six comprehensive match previews each and every week which will be focusing predominantly on the Big Six. To avoid confusion, that is, Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Tottenham.

When these teams clash with each other we will replace it with a match preview from the remaining pool of games.

Want to find out what they tipped before the season? Read Form Labs 2018/19 Season Preview. It can be viewed here.

Lastly, be sure to check out the Betfair Hub and the Betfair Exchange for up to the minute Premier League and football odds.


Brighton v Man City

Monday 13th May, 12:00pm

It seems nothing can stop Man City form retaining their title as Vincent Kompany stepped up with his first goal of the season to secure a narrow victory over Leicester, just as nerves were starting to jingle. Fortune has been in their favour in the last couple of weeks, with the captain’s wonder strike a rarity and Sergio Aguero’s goal crossing the line by the smallest of margins at Burnley the week before. As they march on, they’ve been grinding out wins rather than putting teams to the sword, as although it’s 13 victories in a row, nine of these have finished either 1-0 or 2-0, while they were level at the break in six.

Pep Guardiola will be hoping for a much more comfortable afternoon on Sunday, but that may not be the case against a Brighton side that can play with the freedom of being secure for another season. Although their status was already confirmed prior to kick-off at the Emirates on Sunday, Chris Hughton’s side looked determined not to let their season drift. A 1-1 draw means their last five have seen fewer than three goals, while against ‘Big Six’ sides alone this term, six of their 11 encounters have had no more than two strikes and 10 have had no more than three. Given the Seagulls know what is at stake, we don’t expect them to just roll over, but they have netted just twice in their last eight, while the Citizens have conceded just two times in their last 10. If the visitors get a goal or two ahead, they’re unlikely to push for much more, but rather see out the 90 minutes and secure back-to-back titles. With this in mind, a City win and Under 3.5 Goals is our favoured bet.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City Win/Under 3.5 Goals 2.28


Liverpool v Wolves

Monday 13th May, 12:00am

Tuesday will go down as one of Anfield’s most famous nights after their stunning comeback against Barcelona, and the Kop will be hoping another one follows shortly on Sunday. They do however have to rely on Brighton preventing a Man City win and although that’s unlikely, Jurgen Klopp’s outfit nonetheless have to be ready to take advantage of any slip-up. That is easier said than done though against a Wolves outfit that outside of the top two, have averaged the most points against ‘Big Six’ opposition this term.

Nuno’s men secured seventh place with a narrow 1-0 victory over Fulham, a remarkable achievement, and should City beat Watford in the FA Cup final, then there will be Europa League football at Molineux next season. They are an impressive W6-D4-L3 against the ‘Big Six’ this term across all competitions, but given how far Liverpool and City are ahead of the rest, they are arguably a ‘Big Two’ now. Wolves are W1-D1-L2 against these two specifically and that victory came hosting a second-string Reds outfit in the FA Cup, while the draw was a ‘backs to the wall’ job at home to City back in August. They lost the reverse league fixture against Klopp’s men, while they lost 3-0 at the Etihad, although they were hamstrung by an early red card.

There is plenty of momentum behind this Liverpool side now and apart from losing at the Camp Nou, they’ve won 12 consecutive matches. At home, they’ve won 16 of 18 unbeaten league encounters, so it’s going to be a massive task for even this Wolves outfit to cause an upset. However, we do think the visitors can register on the scoreboard at some point, especially both teams to score has landed in 11 of their 13 games against the ‘Big Six’. The hosts may have kept the necessary clean sheet hosting Barcelona, but it was one of those nights where the stars aligned, and in the league, they’ve managed just three shut outs in their last eight (with two of them against Cardiff and Huddersfield). Furthermore, Andy Robertson was forced off with injury mid-week and in the two games he’s missed this term, they conceded against Burnley and Cardiff.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – BTTS – Yes at 1.90


Man Utd v Cardiff

Monday 13th May, 12:00am

While it looks as if Man City will win the title and four of the other Big Six could well be competing in European finals, Man Utd are left to reflect on another season of underachievement. While they’ve looked second best against some quality opposition in recent times, their draw last week at Huddersfield – the first time the Terriers have taken points off a member of the ‘Big Six’ this term – is a new low for this side and clearly a major overhaul is needed at Old Trafford this summer. Indeed, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer may use the fixture to send a message to the board and give youth a chance, and even though Cardiff have lost all 11 encounters with the ‘Big Six’ this term, we certainly wouldn’t touch United at the prices.

The Bluebirds have been more competitive against the top sides since late January, going down 2-1 to both Arsenal and Chelsea, with Maurizio Sarri’s side very fortunate to walk away with maximum points, while they only lost 2-0 to title-chasing duo Man City and Liverpool last month, with those two sides clearly a cut above the rest of the division. Despite already being relegated, we fully expect the combative Neil Warnock to have his squad wound up for this contest and where they lack in quality, they put United to shame in terms of effort and application this season.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Cardiff +1.75 Asian Handicap at 2.07


Spurs v Everton

Monday 13th May, 12:00am

Not wanting to be outdone by Liverpool, Spurs produced the second miraculous turnaround by a Premier League club in the Champions League in the space of 24 hours. Having been outplayed for the majority of both legs, their stunning second-half comeback was all down to heart and desire, rather than dominance or tactical nous. Excluding those 45 minutes, Mauricio Pochettino’s men haven’t actually been playing their best football of the season, losing five of their last seven in all competitions, including their last two at their new stadium.

Everton can’t make seventh place anymore but they’re ending the season in strong fashion in any case. They’re currently playing their best football under Marco Silva, winning five of their last seven matches – including home wins over Chelsea, Arsenal and Man Utd. Richarlison may not feature, but they have enough quality amongst their ranks to take advantage of any Spurs fatigue.

There is no doubt that the host’s supreme effort on Wednesday night will have taken a lot out of them. They have injuries too with Jan Vertonghen picking up another knock, while Juan Foyth and Heung-min Son are both suspended and although Lucas Moura grabbed the headlines midweek, Son’s presence saw Spurs operate as a far greater attacking unit compared to when he missed the first leg. Indeed, the South Korean hasn’t started 25 league encounters since the start of last season and Spurs have lost 40%, compared to just 20% of the 50 he’s lined-up in. Given it’s been a number of years since the Toffees won at a ‘Big Six’ ground, we usually wouldn’t get behind them, but if ever there was an opportunity to end that run, then it’s visiting a stretched and fatigued Spurs squad on the final day of the season.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Everton Win at 3.42

Man City v Leicester

Tuesday 7th May, 5:00am

With a trip to the Amex to face a Brighton side that have effectively downed tools, this is pretty much the final hurdle Man City need to overcome to retain their title.

They’ve won 17 of their 18 matches at the Etihad this season, but that sole defeat came against Palace, and so Pep Guardiola will be wary of a Leicester side that can counter-attack in a similar fashion.

Brendan Rodgers would surely love to do his old club a favour and with a reinvigorated Jamie Vardy and the likes of James Maddison and Youri Tielemans behind him, they certainly have the potential to make the Citizens evening an uncomfortable one.

They proved how dangerous they can be when dismantling Arsenal 3-0 last weekend, while even prior to Rodgers’ arrival, they beat City in the reverse fixture and held them in the League Cup. Both of those took place at the King Power and travelling to the Etihad, they’ve lost three of four trips since 2014/15, but only one of those defeats was by more than a two-goal margin.

Guardiola’s chargers have been masterful in holding off Liverpool, but in their current 12-match winning streak, only one of the victories was by a margin of two or more goals, so we’re siding with the Foxes on the handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Leicester +2.25 Asian Handicap at $1.90


Bournemouth v Tottenham

Saturday 4th May, 9:30pm

As the Premier League enters it’s final two weeks, Spurs, Chelsea, Man Utd and Arsenal are all doing their best to throw away their top four ambitions. Over the past two weeks, there have been 10 matches featuring these clubs (one of which was Man Utd v Chelsea) and only one victory – a late strike as Spurs overcame Brighton 1-0 at home.

Mauricio Pochettino’s men are four points clear of the Gunners in fifth but following five consecutive away defeats in the league, and eight in nine in all competitions, there is every chance they could remain on 70 points after this game. Now, five of those defeats were against Liverpool, Chelsea (twice) and Man City (twice), but going down at the likes of Palace, Burnley and Southampton certainly gives Bournemouth hope.

Furthermore, Spurs have the added distraction of a Champions League semi-final second leg next week, but injuries won’t allow Pochettino to rotate too many of those jaded legs from midweek. While they welcome back Son Heung-min, Jan Vertonghen joins Harry Kane on the sidelines, and they’ve lost three of their last four in Europe or the Premier League without the Belgian.

The Cherries also have a host of injuries, but many have been out for a while and Eddie Howe has learnt to cope. With Callum Wilson leading the line, their attack looks sharp at the moment and should be able to cause this Spurs outfit problems.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Bournemouth +0.5 Asian Handicap at 1.98


Newcastle v Liverpool

Sunday 5th May, 4:45am

Wednesday night was a demoralising result for Liverpool, to play so well and still lose 3-0, but they have to pick their heads up with the title race still on the line.

While Reds fans are praying and hoping their former manager Brendan Rodgers can do them a favour on Monday night, their team have got to overcome another former employee first. Rafa Benitez won’t be aiming to do Liverpool any favours either, as this represents another opportunity to raise his stock before the summer.

We certainly don’t think this game will be as simple as the market suggests. Firstly, it falls just three days after playing on the continent, and secondly, Newcastle have been red hot at home in recent months.

They’ve won six of their last seven in front of the Toon Army, netting at least twice in each victory, and given the likes of Spurs, Chelsea and Arsenal have all won here by just a one goal margin, while they even beat Man City, the hosts look a great price +1.5 on the Asian Handicap. Indeed, Liverpool have only won by two or more goals in two of their last eight on the road, and if they get a one goal lead, there isn’t a huge incentive to go on and win by more, as the result is all that matters.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Newcastle +1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.84


Chelsea v Watford

Sunday 5th May, 11:00pm

Draws hosting Burnley and then visiting Old Trafford have actually proven to be effective for Chelsea as Arsenal’s string of defeats and Man Utd’s winless run means they’re now in the driving season for that fourth spot.

Maurizio Sarri’s charges are actually three games without a win themselves and they’ve tended to be flat-track bullies under the Italian, with 16 of their 20 victories this season coming against bottom-half opponents.

There is now a clear separation between those fighting it out for the final Europa League spot (7th-10th) and West Ham in 11th and the Blues are just W1-D2-L3 against such opponents and winless at home.

That sole success did come at Vicarage Road though as Watford’s record against the ‘Big Six’ leaves a lot to be desired. Indeed, they’ve lost 10 of 11 such encounters this term, while on the road, they’ve lost all 11 trips since the start of last season, with eight of these by at least two clear goals.

So, despite Chelsea’s frailties, we’re not sure we can trust the visitors on the handicap either. Instead, the best bet is for both teams to score. The hosts are without Antonio Rudiger, who missed their recent 2-2 draw hosting the Clarets, and they’ve kept just six clean sheets in 16 he’s missed since start of last season.

What’s more, Chelsea’s have just two shut-outs in their last nine, while both teams have netted in seven of the Hornet’s last nine away matches, including visits to both Manchester clubs and Spurs.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – BTTS- Yes at $1.80.


Huddersfield v Man Utd

Sunday 5th May, 11:00pm

Man Utd stopped the rot with a 1-1 draw hosting Chelsea, but realistically they needed all three points to stand a chance of finishing in the top four. They should however be guaranteed maximum points here against a Huddersfield side that seem to have given up the ghost.

The Terriers have now lost 21 of their last 23 outings, with the latest seeing them concede after 15 seconds at Anfield. That 5-0 thrashing to Liverpool means they’ve lost all 11 matches with the ‘Big Six’ this term, trailing at the break in 10, while four of the five since the departure of David Wagner were by a margin of at least three goals.

This is a chance for some confidence to be restored amongst the Red Devils and for all their recent issues, they still have an excellent record against bottom-half teams. Indeed, they’ve won 10 of 11 unbeaten matches going back to just before Jose Mourinho was sacked, leading at both half-time and full-time in eight of these.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man Utd/Man Utd at $2


Arsenal v Brighton

Monday 6th May, 1:30am

The Gunners have been rocked by the news this week that Aaron Ramsey won’t feature in an Arsenal shirt again as injury rules him out for the rest of the season. They certainly missed the Welshman in their three consecutive defeats that has put their top four place in jeopardy, but they should be able to cope against a Brighton side that are on a run of five defeats from seven winless matches, where they’ve netted just once.

That was an all-important goal though as their 1-1 draw with Newcastle means they’re now four points ahead of 18th-placed Cardiff, and with a superior goal difference, the Bluebirds have to win their last two to have a chance of staying up.

The Gunners’ 10-game winning run in the league at home came to an end hosting Palace, but the Eagles have proven themselves on numerous occasions of causing the top team’s problems with their counter-attacking threat.

The only other teams to leave the Emirates with points this term are ‘Big Six’ rivals and another side who specialize in counter-attacking football, Wolves. They won’t encounter such problems hosting a Brighton side that are just digging their heels in to ensure they remain in the Premier League next season.

Prior to that defeat to Palace, Arsenal had won 18 straight matches since the start of last season against bottom-half visitors, and 14 of these were by a margin of at least two goals. The Seagulls, meanwhile, have lost all 11 of their trips to ‘Big Six’ opponents since getting promoted, with seven of these by two or more strikes.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Arsenal -1.5 Handicap at $2.15

Liverpool v Huddersfield

Saturday 27th April, 5:00am

While Liverpool have experienced some very nervy encounters in their pursuit of a maiden Premier League title, taking to the second-half to overcome Southampton, Chelsea and Cardiff, they should have no such trouble against Huddersfield. The Terriers are going down without a fight having lost 20 of their last 22, failing to score in 12 of these, including seven of their last eight on the road. That includes a 5-0 hammering at Chelsea and a 4-0 defeat at Spurs within their last five, so they’re unlikely to lay a glove on Liverpool at Anfield.

The Reds have shown remarkable consistency to only lose once all season, while at home they’ve won 15 of 17 unbeaten games. Moreover, against bottom-half teams at all venues, they’ve won 17 of 18 unbeaten matches this term, netting at least three times in 10, and having scored four or more in over half of the games at Anfield, we’d expect them to put Huddersfield to the sword. With this on a Friday night and their Champions League engagement with Barcelona not until Wednesday, Jurgen Klopp can afford to play his best XI, and so we expect the front trio of Salah, Mane and Firmino to start. However, if ahead, he’s likely to give them a breather in the second period and so preference is to side with a win to nil rather than the handicap in what is as close to a sure three points as you can expect in the Premier League.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool Win to Nil at 1.66


Spurs v West Ham

Saturday 27 April, 9:30pm

Spurs could have feared the worst for their top four ambitions after losing 1-0 at Man City in the early kick-off on the weekend, but their rivals all then proceeded to drop points as well, and they then went on to secure three points hosting Brighton on Tuesday. It means Spurs have won four on the bounce without conceding at their new home in all competitions, but the only team they’ve scored more than twice against is lowly Huddersfield.

This poses significant problems for a West Ham side that are well below par at present. Indeed, the Hammers have lost three of four winless matches, but they have at least put in better performances in drawing with Leicester at home and going down 2-1 at Old Trafford in their last two. It’s almost as if Manuel Pellegrini’s men need to be playing stronger opposition to pull their finger out, as they’ve also been competitive on recent trips to Chelsea and Man City, losing 2-0 and 1-0 respectively. It’s part of a run that has seen them net just two goals while losing seven of eight winless away matches, but only once have they shipped more than twice in a game.

Spurs can be expected to carry on their winning run at home, but with a huge Champions League fixture against Ajax to look forward to on Tuesday night, their foot could come slightly off the pedal if they get ahead. With this in mind, the Spurs win and Under 2.5 Goals appeals most.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs Win and Under 2.5 Goals at 4.6


Brighton vs Newcastle

Sunday 28 April, 2:30am

Had it not been for an 88th-minute strike from Christian Eriksen, then Brighton would have secured back-to-back goalless draws in difficult trips to Wolves and Spurs, and two priceless points in their bid for survival. The midweek result keeps them just three points ahead of 18th-placed Cardiff and although they have an advantageous goal difference, with both Arsenal (A) and Man City (H) in their final two outings this season, they’ll know at least one point here is a necessity. They’ve lost three in a row at the Amex, the latest two a humbling 5-0 defeat to Bournemouth and then a crucial 2-0 loss to Cardiff. This prompted Chris Hughton to deploy shut-up-shop tactics, and given the situation, we expect them to once more dig their heels in.

Newcastle continue to light up St James’ Park with six successes in their last seven there, but away from home they’re just W3-D7-L7 this term. However, if we exclude trips to the ‘Big Six’, their form reads W3-D7-L1 as nine have had fewer than three goals and five have had no more than one. By nature, Rafa Benitez is more cautious on his travels and this has all the elements of a low-scoring affair, as has been the case in their three meetings since getting promoted together – two 1-0’s and a goalless draw.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 1.5 Goals at 2.75


Leicester v Arsenal

Sunday 28 April, 9:00pm

For the second game in a row, Arsenal were undone by a side that specialise in counter-attacking football, conceding three at the Emirates hosting Palace and then a further three at Molineux on Wednesday night. Their top four fate was in their own hands before these fixtures and we fear for them going up against a Leicester side that also specialise at playing on the break. This has only amplified since the arrival of Brendan Rodgers and it has made for exciting encounters with six of the Foxes eight matches since Claude Puel’s departure featuring at least three goals, with both teams scoring in each. They’ve also prevailed in five of these, but this is the first time they’ll face a ‘Big Six’ opponent under the Northern Irishman, though they should be suited to this test and the likes of Jamie Vardy, Demarai Gray and Harvey Barnes will relish facing this lacklustre Gunners defence.

Given Arsenal’s only away clean sheet this term came when Watford went down to 10-men after 11 minutes, while they’ve netted in all bar two of their trips, we should be in for another exciting clash. However, that 1-0 result at Vicarage Road and a 2-1 victory at Huddersfield are their only triumphs in their last 11 on the road. They’ve lost six of these, including at sides of a similar ilk to Leicester – Wolves, Everton and West Ham – and while goals are expected, there is little value in those markets, so we’ll back Leicester to pile on more away day misery for Unai Emery’s men.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Leicester 0 Asian Handicap at 2.0


Burnley v Man City

Sunday 28 Apr, 11:05pm

Man City took another step closer to defending their title with a crucial 2-0 success at Old Trafford midweek, their 11th success on the bounce. However, they can’t count their chickens just yet as this Burnley outfit will probably put up more of a fight than United managed and indeed, Guardiola’s men were held 1-1 here last term, only won narrowly 2-1 the previous campaign, while they lost back in 2014/15.

Their point at Stamford Bridge on Monday means Burnley are as good as safe with three games to spare, but Sean Dyche won’t allow his players to start looking ahead to their summer holidays. They certainly won’t make it a comfortable afternoon for their more illustrious visitors and indeed, since City swatted them aside at the Etihad in the FA Cup back in January, the Clarets have drawn at United and Chelsea, pushed Liverpool all the way at Anfield and beaten Spurs here at Turf Moor. Although they’re just W2-D2-L12 hosting ‘Big Six’ opposition since 2016/17, only two of those defeats were by more than a two-goal margin. Furthermore, as relentless as City have been at picking up points, only one of their current 11-match winning streak has seen them cover the -2 handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Burnley +2.25 Asian Handicap at 1.94


Man Utd v Chelsea

Monday 29 April, 1:30am

Since that unforgettable night in Paris, the wheels have come off for Man Utd and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, as they’ve lost seven of their last nine in all competition (and only just scraped past Watford and West Ham at home in the other two). However, five of those defeats came on the road and the only teams to win at Old Trafford since Jose Mourinho departed are European heavyweights PSG, Barcelona and Man City. However, Chelsea’s form, especially away form home, hardly installs us with much confidence either, so we can understand why the market has this as a pick’em game.

The Blues dropped crucial points hosting Burnley on Monday night, but they still sit in pole position for that fourth spot. They have however, lost six of their last eight domestic matches away from home, with the exceptions narrow 2-1 wins over Fulham and Cardiff, where they were very fortunate to overcome the latter. The Blues failed to score in any of those defeats and with none of United’s attackers looking confident in front of goal at the moment – going 527-minutes across all competitions since they last registered from open play – it points towards a low-scoring contest.

Indeed, despite not scoring in any of their home defeats under Solskjaer, and also registering a goalless draw hosting Liverpool, all four of these encounters featured fewer than three strikes and came within their last seven on home turf. What’s more, since April 2013, 12 of 16 head-to-head meetings between these two in all tournaments have seen no more than two strikes.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 2.5 Goals at 2.0

Man Utd v Man City

Thursday 25 April, 5:00am

A few weeks ago, Liverpool fans would have looked at this fixture as Man City’s most likely chance of dropping points, but following Man Utd’s woeful display at Everton, Reds fans are probably looking to Burnley away instead! Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was forced to apologise to the fans after the debacle at Goodison and his chargers have now lost six of their last eight in all competitions, but for all United’s shortcomings recently, Pep Guardiola will still view the trip to Old Trafford as their greatest hurdle between now and then end of the season.

Indeed, the only sides to win here since Jose Mourinho was relieved of his duties are PSG and Barcelona. They’ve won six of eight unbeaten matches in the league but having overcome Huddersfield, Bournemouth and Brighton in their opening three, they’ve been far from convincing in their last five. They draw with Burney and Liverpool and although they’ve taken maximum points off Southampton, Watford and West Ham, they were fortunate not to drop points in all three. Against a side of City’s quality their unbeaten streak at home is under serious threat and the bookies certainly agree with United the biggest price they’ve ever been for a Premier League match at Old Trafford.

Despite the disappointment of exiting the Champions League, City were able to overcome conquerors Spurs in the league as they keep on grinding out results to keep their noses in front of Liverpool. Victory on Saturday was their 10th Premier League success in a row and given the Red Devil’s performances of late, it’s difficult to see them not picking up another three points, even though Kevin de Bruyne is injury yet again. Such is the strength of their squad it shouldn’t hinder them too much but given United are the both teams to score kings, we think they can get a consolation strike. Indeed, both teams scoring has landed in 71% of their matches this term (a league high), including 13 of 16 at home (seven of eight under Ole).

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City Win & BTTS at 2.6


Man City v Spurs

Just three days after one of the greatest games of all time these two square-off again in a crucial match at the top of the table. City’s challengers Liverpool are in their best form under Klopp as their 4-1 victory at Porto in the Champions League made it eight in a row in all competitions.

If they win their four remaining Premier League matches – their opponents are Cardiff, Huddersfield, Newcastle and Wolves – then City will have to win all of their remaining five to retain the title.

Though Spurs went through, City won on the night to extend their incredible home record. In the league they’ve won 16 of their 17 at the Etihad this season with 13 victories by two clear goals. They’ve dispatched all of their ‘rivals’ with ease with only Liverpool the only member of the ‘Big 6’ getting within one goal of the champions.

While Spurs have a fresh lease of life at their new stadium their travel woes continue. They’ve now lost their last four on the road, shipping a brace each time. Their Champions League triumph against the pre-tournament favourites came as a shock as they remain without the services of Aurier, Dier, Winks and Kane and all four will also be missing here.

VAR saved Spurs on the Champions League but with it still, inexplicably, not being used in the Premier League it can’t come to their rescue again.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City -1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.80


Everton v Man Utd

Three points for Everton would finish Man Utd’s season as the top-four would be out of their grasp with four games to go, as it seemed when Jose Mourinho was sacked.

The fact that they still have a chance of playing Champions League football next season – they are currently $4.30 to finish in the top-four – is testament to how good a job Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has done and it’s something he should stress to his players before this huge match.

United have lost five of their last seven in all competitions and were completely outclassed in both legs by Barcelona in Europe. Worryingly, their two wins in that spell were fortunate as West Ham had the better of their game last weekend.

Incredibly, this will be Everton’s fifth home game in a row against ‘Big 6’ opposition which included a goalless draw against city-rivals Liverpool and wins over Chelsea and Arsenal. This is still a transition season for the Toffees, though, as best proved by their 2-0 loss to Fulham last time out.

The gulf between the best and the rest is the biggest it’s ever been in the Premier League with the Big Six winning 77% of matches against non-Big Six teams this season including 71% on the road. Even with their decent current run, Everton have still lost seven of their last 10 hosting Big Six teams so United look a decent price for three points.

 BACK – Man Utd to Win at 2.38


Cardiff v Liverpool

Cardiff are next up for the big red Liverpool juggernaut. Klopp’s side made it eight on the bounce in all competitions as they swept aside Porto to reach a second consecutive Champions League semi-final.

The Reds are in imperious form having thrashed Chelsea at Anfield last week in a dominant performance and with City facing their European conquerors Spurs in the first game of the round, a win here could mean they move four points clear at the top of the table with the title theirs to lose.

Cardiff’s win at Brighton in midweek has reignited the battle to stay up with the Bluebirds now just two points off safety. That was just the fifth time they’ve avoided defeat on the road this season though at home they’ve fared a little better going W6-D2-L9.

Worryingly they’ve lost all 10 games home and away against the Big Six with seven defeats by two clear goals. Liverpool have won five of nine trips to bottom-six finishers or current bottom-six teams over the past two seasons.

 BACK – Liverpool -1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.75


Arsenal v Crystal Palace

Arsenal are above Chelsea on goal difference and just two points clear of Man Utd in the race for the Champions League spot but an easy run in means they are just $1.52 to finish in the sought after top-four. After this, they’ve got Wolves, Leicester, Brighton and Burnley so this is arguably their toughest remaining fixture.

Arsenal lost their first home game of the season 2-0 to Man City but since then they’ve been dominant winning 14 of 16 matches including their last seven. Furthermore, 12 of the victories have been by two clear goals. Palace tend to be better on the road than at home as their fast forwards are suited to a counter-attacking approach.

Palace have lost all of their last five against the Big Six and eight of their last 11 against Arsenal. A straight play on the Gunners is the bet.

 BACK – Arsenal to Win at 1.56


Chelsea v Burnley

The Easter games wrap up with Chelsea hosting Burnley with the visitors hoping for their fourth win in a row.

Chelsea were humbled by Liverpool last weekend but they’ll be happy to return to Stamford Bridge where they’ve picked up 16 points from their last six. Burnley have improved of late but a bottom-half finish still looks likely. The Blues have won eight of nine unbeaten games hosting the other teams currently in the bottom half so they won’t be scared of The Clarets.

Burnley have picked up just one point in their five other trips to the Big Six as they’ve shipped 15 goals.

Chelsea have won by two clear goals in nine of their last 17 home matches and another comfy win looks on the cards.

 BACK – Chelsea -1.5 Asian handicap at 1.7


West Ham v Leicester

Both of these sides will be happy to not be involved in the relegation scrap so with the pressure off we could see a flurry of goals.

The Hammers look like they are on the beach already. They’ve shipped at least two goals in all of their last five with their only points coming in a 4-3 win against the hapless Huddersfield.

Seven of Leicester’s last nine matches have had Over 2.5 Goals as have five of their last six on the road when they’ve scored. Under Pellegrini, seven of West Ham’s 11 home matches against non-Big Six sides have had Over 2.5 Goals.

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 1.79

Leicester vs Newcastle

Saturday 13 April, 5:00am

Usually when a team has little to play for towards the backend of the campaign, they are worth taking on, but the recent arrival of Brendan Rodgers has seen the Leicester players motivated to perform for their new manager. They’ve won five of their six matches since sacking Claude Puel, with each of these victories against bottom-half outfits. Five also saw both teams strike and it’s a bet that’s landed in 64% of their matches this season, which should only increase now Rodgers is at the helm.

A second consecutive defeat, and an end to their winning streak at home, means Newcastle aren’t out of the woods yet as 18th-placed Cardiff trail them by seven points, but with a game in hand. They can count themselves slightly unlucky to lose to a penalty late on hosting Palace though, as they dominated proceedings and lead the shot count 18-3. Their output has definitely improved as Salomon Rondon and Ayoze Perez have struck up a dangerous partnership up front for them. They certainly have what it takes to trouble a Leicester side that have kept just one clean sheet in their last 12 now, making both teams to score a strong runner once more.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – BTTS – Yes at 1.9


Spurs vs Huddersfield

Saturday 13 April, 9:30pm

A shake up to the usual starting line-up saw an improved performance from Chelsea as the likes of Callum Hudson-Odi, Rubens Loftus-Cheek and Olivier Giroud all excelled in rare starts, with the latter two finding the net in a comfortable victory against Brighton. It means they’ve won four of six unbeaten matches at the Bridge since losing to Leicester just before Christmas, where they’ve only conceded twice. Two of West Ham’s last three matches have been up there with their worst performances of the season – losing at home to Everton and away at Cardiff.

The other game in this sequence say them come back from 3-1 down to beat Championship-bound Huddersfield, so they don’t appear to be in a good place as they head across the capital. What’s more, they’ve lost 12 of 16 winless trips to the ‘Big Six’ since the start of the 2016/17 season, while in their last six road games they’ve netted just once, despite only one of these being at one of those ‘Big Six’ teams. Given the Blues have shut their opponents out in seven of their last 10 in front of their own fans, the home win to nil is the best ploy.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs Win to Nil at 2.05


Palace v Man City

Sunday 14 April, 11:05pm

A shake up to the usual starting line-up saw an improved performance from Chelsea as the likes of Callum Hudson-Odi, Rubens Loftus-Cheek and Olivier Giroud all excelled in rare starts, with the latter two finding the net in a comfortable victory against Brighton. It means they’ve won four of six unbeaten matches at the Bridge since losing to Leicester just before Christmas, where they’ve only conceded twice. Two of West Ham’s last three matches have been up there with their worst performances of the season – losing at home to Everton and away at Cardiff.

The other game in this sequence say them come back from 3-1 down to beat Championship-bound Huddersfield, so they don’t appear to be in a good place as they head across the capital. What’s more, they’ve lost 12 of 16 winless trips to the ‘Big Six’ since the start of the 2016/17 season, while in their last six road games they’ve netted just once, despite only one of these being at one of those ‘Big Six’ teams. Given the Blues have shut their opponents out in seven of their last 10 in front of their own fans, the home win to nil is the best ploy.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Palace +1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.99


Man Utd v West Ham

Sunday 14 April, 2:30am

Despite a spirited display, Man Utd were unable to really test Barcelona at home in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final. Still, they won’t give up hope as they were able to turn around a 2-0 deficit in the first leg against PSG, and with this fixture just three days before their trip the Camp Nou, it should be a good time to face Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s men. However, West Ham have thrown in some dismal performances of late, notably 2-0 defeats to Everton and Cardiff, while they only scrapped past Huddersfield – one of the worst Premier League teams of all time – 4-3 at home. Furthermore, on the road, they’ve lost six of seven winless trips, scoring just once in this run, but they did at least put in a slightly more spirited display at Stamford Bridge on Monday night and were undone by a moment of genius from Eden Hazard.

United were very lucky to beat both Southampton and Watford in their last two at Old Trafford, while they draw with Liverpool and Burnley in the two before. With this in mind, their price looks a little skinny and without being able to rely on either side, we’re swaying towards the goalscorer market. At home under Solskjaer, the Red Devils are at least scoring regularly. They’ve netted at least twice in six of his seven home league games – the exception versus Liverpool – and it is Anthony Martial who interests us in this clash. The Frenchman is due for a start after beginning the last two games on the bench and he has a fantastic record against the Hammers, bagging six goals and three assists in seven appearances against them in all competitions.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Anthony Martial anytime at 2.1


Liverpool v Chelsea

Monday 15 April, 1:30am

Go back to the 2013/14 season and Chelsea travelled up to Merseyside at a crucial stage in the title race between Liverpool and Man City and victory for the visitors, along with Steven Gerrard’s infamous slip, handed the advantage to City. Back then, Jose Mourinho was seen as a tactical master in high profile away games, while Liverpool had little defensive backbone and were overly reliant on Luis Suarez. Fast forward to this season, and the Blues are a completely different proposition under Maurizio Sarri, while Jurgen Klopp’s men are well-organized, defensively sound and not reliant upon one or two individuals.

Chelsea actually haven’t lost at Anfield in the league since the 2011/12 season and they even won here earlier this campaign in the League Cup. That was thanks to yet another Eden Hazard wonder goal, but they faced a Liverpool side without Alisson in goal, Virgil Van Dijk, Roberto Firmino or Mo Salah that day. However, Sarri has been tactically found out traveling to full-strength ‘Big Six’ opposition in the league, losing by a two-goal margin at Arsenal and Spurs, as well as a 6-0 drubbing at the Etihad.

Liverpool are the only unbeaten side at home in the Premier League, winning 14 of their 16 unbeaten matches and going in ahead at the break in each of the last four. While one of the exceptions was a goalless stalemate with City, they’ve beaten Spurs 2-1 most recently and comfortably dispatched Arsenal and Man Utd. We can’t see Chelsea’s unbeaten streak here continuing and indeed, the extra two days rest, and playing at home midweek, is a massive advantage in the host’s favour. We expect a fast start and it’s difficult to see the Blues mounting any kind of a comeback if they go behind. Indeed, the only side they’ve beaten this season after conceding first is Cardiff and in those trips to the ‘Big Six’, they were 2-0 down by the break in both games in North London and blown away 4-0 in the opening 45 minutes at the Etihad.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool/Liverpool HT/FT at 2.6


Watford v Arsenal

Tuesday 16 April, 5:00am

Confidence will be high amongst the Watford squad after their stunning comeback in their FA Cup semi-final against Wolves. With the final not until the end of May, we don’t expect them to be distracted at all and they’ll fancy their chances against an Arsenal side that are just W2-D3-L7 over their last 12 on the road in all competitions, with the two victories coming at Huddersfield and League One outfit Blackpool. Now, the Hornets have lost nine of their 10 encounters with ‘Big Six’ opposition this term, but they’ve been pretty competitive at Vicarage Road, going down 2-1 to Chelsea, Man City and United, while they beat Spurs by the same scoreline.

The Gunners’ top-four hopes took a hit with a toothless 1-0 defeat at Everton. Their hopes of finishing in the Champions League spots is in serious jeopardy as four of their remaining six fixtures are away from the comforts of the Emirates. Incredibly, they are the only side in the Premier League not to keep a clean sheet on the road this season. In fact, going back into last term, their only shut out in their last 25 away from home came in Arsene Wenger’s final game in charge at Huddersfield, as they’ve been on the wrong on end the result in 13 of these. They’ll also be without the suspended Sokratis and the Greek is probably the only fit defender Unai Emery has that could stand up to the physicality of Troy Deeney.

Arsenal have however netted in all bar two of their 15 road games and so it no surprise to see both teams to score so short. Given their frailties though, we’ll take a chance on the Watford win and both teams to score, as was the case in this fixture last season.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Watford win and both teams to score at 5.0


Chelsea vs West Ham

April 8th. 00:05 AEDT

A shake up to the usual starting line-up saw an improved performance from Chelsea as the likes of Callum Hudson-Odi, Rubens Loftus-Cheek and Olivier Giroud all excelled in rare starts, with the latter two finding the net in a comfortable victory against Brighton. It means they’ve won four of six unbeaten matches at the Bridge since losing to Leicester just before Christmas, where they’ve only conceded twice. Two of West Ham’s last three matches have been up there with their worst performances of the season – losing at home to Everton and away at Cardiff.

The other game in this sequence say them come back from 3-1 down to beat Championship-bound Huddersfield, so they don’t appear to be in a good place as they head across the capital. What’s more, they’ve lost 12 of 16 winless trips to the ‘Big Six’ since the start of the 2016/17 season, while in their last six road games they’ve netted just once, despite only one of these being at one of those ‘Big Six’ teams. Given the Blues have shut their opponents out in seven of their last 10 in front of their own fans, the home win to nil is the best ploy.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea Win to Nil 2.38


Southampton vs Liverpool

April 6th. 06:00 AEDT

A Hugo Lloris mistake ensured Liverpool stayed right in the title ace mix with Man City, but it was yet another example of them not hitting the heights of the first half of the campaign. Since losing to City at the beginning of the year, they’ve won seven of 11 unbeaten matches, but only two – at home against Bournemouth and Watford – have been convincing. They’ve only won two of their five away games during this period, narrow one goal successes at Brighton and Fulham, as they’ve been held at the likes of Everton and West Ham, as well as Old Trafford. Put in a similar performance here and there is every chance they could drop points against a Southampton side that have improved dramatically under Ralph Hasenhuttl.

Indeed, the Saints have taken 24 points from his 16 games in charge, the ninth best in the Premier League over this period. Like the Liverpool manager, the Austrian is an avid fan of the high press and the intensity of that approach has earnt him the nickname of the ‘Alpine Klopp’. As such, we don’t expect them hold back, and they’ve proven they can ruffle the feathers of the top teams with victories over Spurs and Arsenal here. The area the south coast club have improved on most is going forward, as they’ve only failed to score in three of Hasenhuttl’ 18 fixtures in charge across all competitions, with each of these exceptions coming on the road. As the Reds have shown defensive vulnerabilities of late, allowing Spurs, Fulham and Burnley all to strike against them, both teams to score is the best bet.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – BTTS – Yes at 1.86


Bournemouth vs Burnley

April 7th. 01:00 AEDT

The Cherries went down to yet another defeat on the road as Brendan Rodgers’ Leicester continue to rise up the standings, though only the beleaguered bottom-three and a Brighton side that haven’t travelled well since their promotion have picked up fewer points per game away from home. However, back at the Vitality Stadium they’re a much more competitive W7-D5-L4 as each defeat came when hosting ‘Big Six’ sides. Excluding those teams, Eddie Howe’s men have won six of 11 unbeaten matches, though a common feature has been goals with both teams registering on the board in seven of these.

Burnley will take great encouragement from their 2-0 win hosting Wolves, but Nuno Espirito Santo’s charges have been prone to dropping points against the lesser lights of the division, while this wasn’t the first time this season that the Clarets have come away with the spoils despite having less shots on target than goals. The result does little to detract from the four consecutive defeats they suffered prior to that, though they too are still finding a route to goal one way or the other, drawing just the solitary blank over their past nine fixtures now. The understanding between strike partners Ashley Barnes and Chris Wood has been a major factor, but they also only kept the single clean sheet across these nine matches. Given all five meetings between these two since 2016/17 have featured at least three goals, while both teams found the net in four of these, we’re expecting that pattern to continue.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – BTTS – Yes at 1.69


Huddersfield v Leicester

April 7th. 01:00 AEDT

The inevitable finally happened and Huddersfield were relegated following their last outing, going down 2-0 at Selhurst Park. Although some might suggest they can play with greater freedom after that mathematical confirmation, there’s little to suggest Jan Siewert has the quality at his disposal to pick up any further points with a tough schedule to see the season out, as five of their remaining six fixtures are against top-half opponents. In fact, so dire have Huddersfield been that they’ve lost 18 out of 20 matches across all competitions since the start of December, including nine of the last 10 as seven of these saw them fail to find the net.

That doesn’t bode well ahead of the visit of Leicester, who are a much happier camp since Claude Puel departed as manager. The improvements were immediate as they beat Brighton under interim coach Mike Stowell, but while they lost their first outing under Brendan Rodgers at Watford, they’ve since responded with three victories on the bounce against Fulham, Burnley and Bournemouth. That leaves them with four consecutive wins over bottom-half opponents, and with Brendan Rodgers getting firmly to grips with his squad this should prove another routine victory.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Leicester to win at 1.76


Newcastle v Palace

April 7th. 01:00 AEDT

Palace have gone slightly off the boil since winning impressively 4-1 at Leicester last month. They’ve lost four of six matches across all competitions since then, with the two exceptions against Burnley and Huddersfield. Now, it’s no coincidence that this downturn in form coincided with centre-back Mamadou Sakho’s absence after he hobbled off at the King Power.

Indeed, they’re just W2-D2-L8 stretching back into January 2018 without the Frenchman and he’ll certainly be missed facing in-form strike duo Ayoze Perez and Salomon Rondon. We’re not overly concerned about the Magpies 2-0 defeat at the Emirates on Monday night as seven of their nine victories this term have come at St James’ Park. In fact, they’re on a five-match winning streak here where they’ve scored twice in each and even stunned Man City. They look a decent price to continue their good form at home.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Newcastle Win 2.52


Everton v Arsenal

April 8th. 00:05 AEDT

The Gunners have seemingly generated some momentum with six wins across their last eight in all competitions, though it’s noticeable that each victory came at the Emirates, while they’ve been dismal on their travels since the start of December. They’re just W2-D3-L6 over this period, including defeats against the likes of BATE Borisov and Southampton, while in the league alone they’ve been victorious in just two of their past 10 road trips since late October (W2-D4-L4) as they produced narrow wins over Bournemouth and Huddersfield.

Marco Silva’s men have shown their own improvement recently, with back-to-back wins against West Ham and Chelsea their first since a three-game winning streak much earlier on in the campaign, taking them into the top half of the table. That leaves them with three wins from their last five matches , while they drew another of these against Liverpool, though they do however hold an atrocious record against ‘Big Six’ sides more akin to relegation fodder, going W1-D6-L14 since the start of last season. With that in mind we certainly couldn’t be backing the Toffees to take all three points, but with Arsenal a shambolic W3-D5-L15 away to top-half outfits since 2016/17, we don’t see either team winning this game. In fact, just looking at results against teams finishing between 6th and 10th, the Gunners are W3-D6-L6 on the road since 2015/16

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Draw at 3.75

Chelsea vs Brighton

April 4th. 05:45 AEDT

Although they left Cardiff with three points, the mood at Chelsea is souring by the day as fans are getting fed up with the ponderous and painfully slow ‘Sarri-ball’. They were very fortunate to overcome the Bluebirds, benefitting from a shocking decision form the linesman, and there could well be a toxic atmosphere at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday night. Fortunately, they host a Brighton side who are also horribly out of form, having lost nine of their last 15. However, Chris Hughton knows how to set his side up and make life difficult against ‘Big Six’ opposition. Since their promotion, the Seagulls may only be W3-D2-L15 facing such teams, but 11 contained fewer than three strikes and just three of these losses were by more than a two-goal margin. Although all nine on the road have ended in defeat, six had Under 2.5 Goals, with two of the exceptions at the more free-scoring Liverpool and Man City.

We can see this one going ‘unders’ again as the Blues have hardly been the most prolific in front of goal. Indeed, they’re the lowest scorers of the top-six and in their last 20, they’ve netted more than twice on just a single occasion, with seven of their nine home games in this spread witnessing no more than two strikes.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 2.5 Goals at 2.2


Man City vs Cardiff

April 4th. 05:45 AEDT

Like City’s trip to Fulham on the weekend, the result isn’t in question here, but how many the hosts are going to rack up is difficult to gauge. That’s especially the case after Neil Warnock stated that he may to field a reserve team for the trip to Manchester, after being robbed of a crucial three points hosting Chelsea. Nevertheless, that was their ninth consecutive defeat this season against the ‘Big Six’, where away from home they’ve been thumped 4-1 at Chelsea and Liverpool but put in decent showings with 1-0 and 2-1 defeats at Spurs and Arsenal respectively.

Barring a blip against Palace, Pep Guardiola’s charges have been formidable at the Etihad, winning their remaining 15 matches while averaging 3.4 goals per game. It come as no surprise that many of the win scenarios are extremely short and only once it gets to -3.25 on the Asian Handicap, is odds-against available. They have plenty of important games to go as they seek the quadruple and like at Craven Cottage, they could easily take their foot off the gas once they go a couple up. So instead, we’ll plump for a first goalscorer. Sergio Aguero was subbed off on the weekend with a slight niggle and Guardiola has ruled him out for this clash, so Gabriel Jesus will almost certainly be given an opportunity. The Brazilian has had to play second fiddle for much of the season, but when he’s got his chance, he’s generally taken it, netting four times in his last three Premier League starts.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Gabriel Jesus to Score First at 3.75


Spurs vs Palace

April 4th. 05:45 AEDT

After plenty of delays, Spurs finally get to unveil their new stadium and it’s a much-needed boost after a run of four defeats from five winless games has put their top-four hopes in serious jeopardy. All four of those losses came on the road and the fact that five of their remaining seven matches take place at their new home, means the ball is still in their court to finish in the Champions League spots. At Wembley, they’ve won nine of 14 matches this term, only failing to do so against ‘Big Six’ sides and Wolves, but it’s unknown how they’ll perform in their new surroundings, so we’d certainly leave them alone at the current prices.

Instead, against a Palace side whose counter-attacking style is suited to facing stronger opposition, we’ll go for both teams to score. Indeed, Wilfred Zaha relishes this kind of occasion and is now ably supported by Andros Townsend and Michy Batshuayi – with the latter’s arrival allowing him to play in his best position. The Eagles almost always score on the road, doing so in all but two of their 15 trips this term, with seven of their last eight seeing both teams register. What’s more, there have been goals at both ends in five of their last six trips to the ‘Big Six’, while it’s also occurred in seven of Spurs’ last nine in the league.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – BTTS – Yes at 1.82


Fulham v Man City

March 30th. 10:30pm AEDT

Playing 24 hours before their title rivals, this is fantastic opportunity for Man City to pile the pressure on Liverpool, especially as the Reds face Spurs. Pep Guardiola’s charges should have a much easier time of it against a Fulham side that have lost their last seven, though their performances over 90 minutes have certainly improved since Scott Parker took the reins as they’ve pushed both Chelsea and Liverpool close at Craven Cottage in narrow 2-1 defeats.

The issue for the caretaker manager is that they still gave up plenty of chances in those fixtures and there is every chance that this City side could just carve them open. It happened earlier in the season when Arsenal won here 5-1, while Man United were comfortable 3-0 victors more recently, so we’re leaning towards an away win and Over 3.5 Goals. Indeed, despite their lowly position, the Cottagers have still netted in 11 of their 15 home games, while the Citizens have visited just three sides currently in the bottom-seven, winning 5-0 at Cardiff, 3-1 at Southampton and 3-0 at Huddersfield.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City Win & Over 3.5 Goals at 1.91

Man Utd v Watford

March 31st. 2:00am AEDT

The international break came at the right time for Man Utd as their momentum had stalled under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer after a defeat at Arsenal before being dumped out of the FA Cup by Wolves. Both those came on the road though and at Old Trafford, they’ve won five of seven unbeaten games domestically since Jose Mourinho left. On paper, 8th-placed Watford should prove tricky opponents as they’ve turned into a very effective side under Javi Gracia. However, the Spaniard has been unable to turn around the club’s form against the ‘Big Six’, losing eight of nine such encounters this term, including their last two road trips 5-0 and 3-1 to Liverpool and Man City respectively, bringing them to 13 consecutive defeats when traveling to the best teams.

Despite the Hornet’s woeful record, it’s difficult to be too bullish about United’s chances at this stage given so much is dependent on team news. Indeed, Luke Shaw, Nemanja Matic, Romelu Lukaku, Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford have all returned form international duty with knocks and it’s unclear at this stage who will be available. Therefore, the best bet looks to be both teams to score. Even if none of the injury list return, the Red Devil’s second-top goalscorer Paul Pogba is fit and under Solskjaer, they’ve netted at least twice in five of their six home league games, with the exception against the best defence on the division – Liverpool. Moreover, despite being on the wrong end of many of the results, Watford have seen both teams score in six of their nine meetings with ‘Big Six’ opponents this term, with two of the exceptions when up against that Liverpool backline.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – BTTS – Yes at 1.8


Leicester vs Bournemouth

March 31st. 2:00am AEDT

Leicester have won three of their four matches since sacking Claude Puel, showing great character last time out to nick it at the death at Burnley, despite going down to 10 men inside five minutes. Harry Maguire is suspended but that doesn’t bother us too much against a Bournemouth outfit that have had a torrid time on the road this season. Indeed, prior to beating basement-dwellers Huddersfield in their last away game, they’d lost nine consecutive away matches, trailing at half-time in seven, while eight were by at least two clear goals.

What’s more, Eddie Howe has a host of injuries to his midfield which will leave them even more disorganised as they often counter-attack too aggressively, leaving themselves highly exposed. The Foxes, meanwhile, have certainly embraced Brendan Rodgers’ attack-minded methods and in Harvey Barnes, James Maddison and Jamie Vardy, they certainly have the required tools to punish the Cherries.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Leicester Win at 1.85


Cardiff v Chelsea

April 1st. 1:05am AEDT

Cardiff’s victory against West Ham when last seen ensures the relegation battle is going to go down to the wire as they’re two points behind 17th placed Burnley and have played one match fewer. However, that game in hand is away at Man City, so Neil Warnock will have targeted this fixture as Chelsea have proven to be vulnerable on the road and will no doubt order his men to get amongst the visitors. However, to get something from the game, the Bluebirds will have to defy their own form having lost all eight encounters with the ‘Big Six’ this term, and they’ve not exactly been close affairs either with an aggregate scoreline of 27-6 against them.

All four to take place at the Cardiff City Stadium saw at least three strikes, with three featuring five or more, and this has the makings of another high-scoring encounter. Indeed, Chelsea may have lost without scoring in four of their last five on the road, but the exception was a 2-1 success at Fulham as they’ve now netted at least twice in all five of their trips to the current bottom-six, with Over 2.5 Goals landing in each. In fact, a porous defence has led to 11 of their 15 away games against all opposition this term featuring three or more strikes. Although we’re tempted to combine this with an away win, we’ll just refrain as Cardiff have plenty of motivation in their fight for their survival.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 1.74


Liverpool v Spurs

April 1st. 3:30am AEDT

Prior to the international break, Liverpool just got their noses in front in the title race, but they can expect to start this clash behind Man City as their title rival face Championship-bound Fulham a day earlier. That will only add to what will be a massive occasion, as there is also plenty on the line for Spurs after a run of three defeats from four winless matches has seen Arsenal, Man Utd and Chelsea all close to within four points of them.

While Liverpool may have slipped up and struggled to score regularly on the road, at Anfield they’ve been prolific this season, winning 13 of 15 unbeaten matches and netting at least three times in seven of their last eight. That included 5-1 and 3-1 victories over Man Utd and Arsenal, meaning they’ve tasted defeat just once in 18 home matches against fellow ‘Big Six’ opposition under Jurgen Klopp (going W8-D9-L1 overall). It’s unlikely that Spurs will cause an upset, especially as they don’t tend to travel well to their main rivals, going a pitiful W3-D7-L13 to the same opposition since Mauricio Pochettino took charge.

While we fancy the Reds to get the job done, they’re a little short in the market and the type of victory is also difficult to decipher with Spurs’ side full of attacking talent, but as they showed in a recent 2-0 defeat at Stamford Bridge, they can fail to fire on the big stage. Therefore, our preference is to back the in-form Sadio Mane to score. With Mo Salah going through a dry spell, the Senegalese has led the charge with 11 goals in as many games. What’s more, he’ll be up against Kieran Trippier, who is suffering from a few confidence issues leading to some costly mistakes of late, and Mane is the perfect man to pounce on any errors.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Sadio Mane Anytime at 2.6


Arsenal v Newcastle

April 2nd. 6:00am AEDT

Arsenal secured mood-changing victories over Man Utd and Rennes before the international break to leave them with 12 wins from their last 14 at the Emirates, with the exceptions in the domestic cups in tough fixtures versus United and Spurs. That form should see them take the spoils against a Newcastle outfit that have lost nine of 10 encounters with the ‘Big Six’ this term, though the Magpies did at least find the net in seven of these. They’ll fancy their chances of doing so once more after netting nine times in five matches, even if the standard of opposition was hardly phenomenal.

Those five matches have been the only games record signing Miguel Almiron has started and though the Paraguayan is yet to register a goal or an assist, he’s been involved in the build-up of play for Newcastle and has linked well with Ayoze Perez and Salomon Rondon, who have formed an excellent understanding at the sharp end themselves. However, while Rafa Benitez’s side have now chalked up five consecutive wins at St. James’ Park, they’ve lost four of their last seven on their travels and are just W1-D2-L14 away to top-half teams since the start of last season. Arsenal have defensive concerns with the suspended Lucas Torreira joining long-term absentees Hector Bellerin and Rob Holding on the sidelines, and while they should possess the quality to pull through, Newcastle can find the net at the Emirates.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Arsenal & BTTS at 2.92

Bournemouth v Newcastle

March 17th. 2:00am AEDT

Bournemouth ended their five-game winless run with a routine victory at Championship-bound Huddersfield, which actually ended a nine-game losing streak on their travels. However, the 2-0 result probably says more about the Terriers than it does Bournemouth, with the Cherries securing just their fourth clean sheet in their last 20. At the Vitality Stadium, they tend to be pretty competitive, with their four defeats coming against ‘Big Six’ sides as they hold the best home record outside of the top six. They certainly show more attacking intent, averaging two goals a game here when excluding the ‘Big Six’, and with the likes of David Brooks and Callum Wilson making an immediate impact on return from injury, we expect them to put it up to Newcastle.

The Magpies will be buoyed by their stirring comeback against Everton and with Ayoze Perez and Salomon Rondon forming a dangerous partnership in attack, this could be an entertaining affair. Indeed, Bournemouth are not known for their defensive resilience, while the visitors have various problems at centre-back. Suspended Swiss international Fabian Schar has become an increasingly important figure for the Magpies as they’ve lost 64% of the 14 games he’s not started, compared with just 31% of the 16 he’s featured in the initial line-up, while Ciaran Clark is injured and unable to deputize. Meanwhile, they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in any of the 10 matches where club captain Jamal Lascelles has been absent since the start of last season, conceding and average of 2.4 goals per game, compared to just 1.05 when he’s started. As a result, Over 2.5 Goals has landed in nine of the 10 matches he’s missed, while it’s also paid out in nine of the Cherries’ last 14 at home.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 2.0


Burnley v Leicester

March 17th. 2:00am AEDT

While Burnley weren’t expected to get anything form their trip to Anfield, it ended up being a torrid weekend as the teams around them – Cardiff, Southampton and Brighton – all won. They’re now 17th and two points from the drop zone and as three of their last four matches of the season are against ‘Big Six’ opposition, they face a four-game spell against Leicester City, Wolves, Bournemouth and Cardiff that is crucial to their survival hopes.

Usually mid-table sides with little to play for are the best opponents to face at this stage of the campaign, but with Brendan Rodgers new to the job at Leicester, there visitors will be highly motivated. Indeed, the former Celtic manager’s relationship with Jamie Vardy already looks more fruitful than his predecessor. The Foxes are one of the leading both teams to score teams in the Premier League, and the arrival of Rodgers is hardly going to halt that trend. That’s landed in eight of their last nine now, while it’s also been creeping into the Clarets’ game. With an effective partnership of Ashley Barnes and Chris wood up front, but a rearguard possessing just the solitary clean sheet in their last 10, eight of these have seen both teams strike.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – BTTS – Yes at 1.73


West Ham v Huddersfield

March 17th. 2:00am AEDT

In typical fashion, West Ham threw in a stinker of a performance in a 2-0 defeat at Cardiff as they continue to show inconsistencies under Manuel Pellegrini. However, most of these horror displays have come on the road and they’re W6-D2-L2 over their last 10 at home, with one of the defeats to Man City and one of the draws to Liverpool. They’ve won five of six unbeaten games against bottom-half teams during this period, netting three or more times in four of the victories as four were also by at least a two-goal margin, and against the divisions worst team, it should be another routine success.

Yet another defeat without scoring all but ended Huddersfield’s faint chances of avoiding relegation. There is just no ended product to their play and only two teams in top-flight history have scored fewer than their 15 goals after 30 games. They’ve lost 10 of their 14 away games, netting just twice in the last eight, while six of the defeats were by two or more goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – West Ham -1.0 Asian Handicap at 2.06


Fulham v Liverpool

March 18th. 1:15am AEDT

Having played after Man City for the last two weekends, this is a great opportunity for Liverpool to put some pressure on their title rivals as Pep Guardiola’s side have FA Cup duties this weekend. They should at least return to the top of the summit temporarily up against a Fulham outfit that have been truly dismal with 10 defeats from their last 11 across all tournaments since the turn of the year, as they’ve gone down by at least two clear goals in five of their last six.

Much had been made of Liverpool’s diminished attacking threat recently but they appear to have rediscovered their mojo with 12 goals across their last four, including three on the road in Munich midweek. They’ve actually netted three or more six of their last eight against bottom-half teams, while they’ve won 14 of 15 unbeaten encounters with such outfits this term and kept 11 clean sheets. They’ve emerged victorious in both halves in each of their last seven when facing promoted sides, and should encounter little difficulty here with the Cottagers losing all 10 matches with the ‘Big Six’ this season. Eight of those clashes saw Fulham lose by at least two clear goals as they also trailed at the break in eight too, and Liverpool’s renewed confidence should see them deliver another big win.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool -1.75 Asian Handicap at 1.88


Everton v Chelsea

March 18th. 3:30am AEDT

Everton are W2-D1-L6 in all competitions since mid-January as they could only beat Huddersfield and Cardiff, while they even crashed out of the fourth round of the FA Cup away at Championship strugglers Millwall. At Goodison Park alone, they’re just W2-D3-L4, including a 6-2 defeat hosting Spurs, which was a continuation of a dismal record versus ‘Big Six’ sides since the start of last season. They’ve lost 14 of 20 winless fixtures home or away against such teams with 12 of them coming by at least a two-goal margin, while half of the draws came in Merseyside derbies where they’ve been more competitive.

The Toffees have lost four of six winless meetings with Chelsea across all competitions since 2016/17, netting just once as they shipped 12 goals at the other end, and with Maurizio Sarri’s side upping their game recently, it’s set to be another chastening afternoon for Marco Silva and his men. Indeed, the visitors are right back in the hunt for one of those two Champions League spots behind title-chasing City and Liverpool, with a recent 2-0 victory against Spurs seemingly confirming their recovery isn’t just built on sand.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea to win at 1.99

Huddersfield vs Bournemouth

March 10th. 2.00am AEDT

This game is likely to feature towards the end of the highlights package this weekend, but with that there is a bet we fancy. Both teams are really struggling for goals and so Under 2.5 Goals looks a generous price. Bournemouth have netted just two in their last five, while Huddersfield only have 15 to their name over the whole season.

Teams expect to take maximum points against Huddersfield, but they showed some steely determination to beat Wolves 1-0 in their last home game. What’s more, the Cherries have lost their last nine on the road, so we wouldn’t rush to back them. Despite only scoring four times themselves, six of these nine matches have actually had three or more goals, as their opposition have netted at least twice in each.

However, this isn’t something they shouldn’t need to worry about here with the Terriers netting more than once on just a single occasion this term. Furthermore, if we exclude Huddersfield’s fixtures with ‘Big Six’ opponents since Jan Siewert took charge, then all four of their games have had fewer than three goals and three have had no more than one strike.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 2.5 Goals at 1.71


Southampton v Spurs

March 10th. 2.00am AEDT

Southampton remain perilously close to the drop zone and the tricky fixtures don’t stop with Spurs coming to town. They have however been a much-improved outfit under Ralph Hasenhuttl, pushing United all the way at Old Trafford last weekend, while they claimed the scalp of Arsenal in his first game in charge at St Mary’s. In fact, they’ve netted in all their other six home games with the Austrian at the helm, but the only side they’ve shut out is lowly Fulham, so Spurs should get their fair share of chances.

Mauricio Pochettino’s men will be buoyed by their 1-0 victory in Dortmund but the clean sheet was due to an inspired performance from Hugo Lloris as they gave up plenty of opportunities. The Argentine has a fantastic record against his former employers, winning four of five unbeaten matches since 2016/17, but given they were so poor in their last two away games in the league at Chelsea and Burnley, they look a touch skinny. Instead, as all five of those head-to-head meetings have seen both teams score, that looks the way to go. It’s a bet that has landed in six of the Saints’ last eight versus ‘Big Six’ opposition, while the visitors’ only shutout in their last eight in the league was at home to Newcastle.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – BTTS – Yes at 1.73


Man City v Watford

March 10th. 4:30am AEDT

After Everton did Man City a favour, this is a fantastic opportunity for them to go four points clear with Liverpool playing on Sunday, and one we don’t see them letting up. After starting the year on fire, the goals have slightly dried up for City as they followed up their goalless Carabao Cup final with a pair of 1-0 victories over West Ham and Bournemouth. However, unlike their title rivals, this isn’t a case of them getting tight as they carved out plenty of chances in those two league matches, winning the shot count 43-2 in total. This indicates that the football is as free flowing as ever and it would be no surprise to see them fill their boots here.

Watford showed great tenacity to beat Leicester in injury-time last weekend, but they way they caved to a 5-0 defeat at Anfield in their last road trip has to be a worry ahead of their trip to the Etihad. The Hornets have lost their last 12 trips to ‘Big Six’ opponents, conceding at least three times in seven of these, while they’ve lost all seven encounters with the Citizens since their promotion, shipping an average of 3.14 goal across these. They have however scored in their last two such encounters and with the likes of John Stones, Aymeric Laporte and Fernandinho all still absent for the hosts, we’re leaning towards a home win and Over 3.5 Goals. Indeed, City have won 14 of 15 at home this term, with nine of these featuring at least four strikes.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City Win/Over 3.5 Goals at 2.0


Liverpool v Burnley

March 10th. 11:00pm AEDT

Liverpool have seen the title slip out of their own grasp as a goalless stalemate in the Merseyside derby was their fourth draw in their last six in the league. They have however kept five consecutive clean sheets across all competitions, but Burnley are a side that have caused them problems in the past, netting in all five meeting since they returned to the Premier League in 2016/17. Indeed, Sean Dyche has forged a reputation for a defensive mind-set but to his side’s credit, they’ve found the net in 10 of their last 14 league trips to ‘Big Six’ outfits since December 2016.

This has a potential to be another nervy afternoon for Liverpool fans, but in fairness to their side, they’ve won their last two at Anfield by and aggregate scoreline of 8-0. However, that has not really been through slick attacking football as their front three aren’t clicking at the moment. Their full-backs contributed seven assists over those two games and as the Clarets are likely to set up to frustrate and not allow an easy path through the middle, once again the space is going to be out wide for the Reds. With this in mind, Virgil van Dijk is of interest to score anytime. The Dutch captain is a mountain of a man and we’re surprised he hasn’t got more than three goals this term given his threat at set-pieces. Burnley have conceded goals from crosses in five of their last six, so once again it can be Liverpool’s defenders that lead them to glory.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Virgil van Dijk Anytime at 6.5


Chelsea v Wolves

March 11th. 1:05am AEDT

After the humiliation of their 6-0 thrashing at the Etihad and Maurizio Sarri seemingly on the brink of the sack, Chelsea have put in some good performances; firstly, keeping City at bay for 120 minutes in the Carabao Cup final and then consecutive victories over Spurs and Fulham. However, after playing on a Thursday night, they’ll have their work cut out here against a Wolves side that are at their most dangerous when facing stronger opposition. Indeed, Nuno’s men have struggled to put away poor teams this term – drawing at Fulham, losing in Cardiff and allowing basement-dwellers Huddersfield to do the double on them. Against ‘Big Six’ oppositions though, they’re W3-D3-L3 across all competitions, including a victory over the Blues in the reverse fixture.

They’re suited to these types of fixtures as they’re extremely well organised, while they can be devastating on the counter. Only Newcastle have seen fewer strikes than Wolves in their away matches as they’ve scored 15 and conceded 16 from 14 matches, with nine of these featuring a maximum of two goals. Chelsea, meanwhile, have seen no more than two goals in six of their last eight at the Bridge and out of all of the teams in the top half of the table, they’ve seen the fewest goals in their home matches this term.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 2.5 Goals at 2.01


Arsenal vs Man Utd

March 11th. 3:30am AEDT

Marcus Rashford’s injury-time penalty sealed a famous turnaround in Paris for Man Utd and they’ll take plenty of momentum going into this crucial fixture against their old foes. What made the result even more impressive was the weakened team they were forced to field due to numerous injuries and suspensions, but they can at least welcome Paul Pogba back who has flourished under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. He’s not the only one to either as Rashford and Romelu Lukaku have formed a devastating partnership recently and are being backed up with quality service from the likes of Pogba, Luke Shaw and Ashley Young. With Arsenal’s injury concerns in the backline, Rashford could have a crucial role to play, especially if Stephan Lichtsteiner isn’t fit enough to play as the young Englishman will get his chance to torment the error-prone Shkodran Mustafi playing out of position at right-back.

The Gunners’ defensive concerns don’t end there as Lucas Torreira is suspended and the Uruguayan provides valuable protection in front of their fragile back-four and would have probably been responsible for marking the influential Pogba. Arsenal’s results against the ‘Big Six’ haven’t exactly improved under Unai Emery as they’re just W2-D3-L6 in all competitions. That includes a 3-1 defeat here to the Red Devils in the FA Cup, while United have also managed a draw with Liverpool and victories against both Chelsea and Spurs since the change of manager. However, in the league alone, the Gunners have won 12 of 14 unbeaten matches at the Emirates since an opening day defeat to Man City, so while’s we’re keen on the visitors’ chances, we’ll keep the draw onside.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man Utd 0 Asian Handicap at 2.3

Spurs v Arsenal

Mar 2nd, 11.30pm AEDT

It was déjà vu for Spurs as they saw their title aspiration slip away with a defeat at Stamford Bridge. It was a disappointing evening for Mauricio Pochettino and his players, but they have to make sure they secure Champions League football for next season and there is nothing like a North London derby to refocus the minds. Arsenal are now their closest pursuers, just four points adrift, adding extra incentive to this clash.

The Gunners enjoyed superiority over their north London neighbours for many a year before the arrival of Pochettino, but this has been a much more even contest since the Argentine took up the hot seat. In 11 head-to-head meetings across all competitions since 2014/15, Spurs have just shaded the contest W4-D4-L3 and in the league alone, they’ve won three of four unbeaten home encounters.

What’s more, excluding Liverpool this term and Man City since the start of last season, with those sides a cut above the rest of the division, Spurs’ home record against fellow ‘Big Six’ outfits is pretty impressive W10-D4-L2 under current management, with eight of these victories by at least a two goal margin.

Arsenal have won their last three, but against Bournemouth, Southampton and Huddersfield, it’s hardly something to get too excited about. The latest saw a welcome return to form for Mesut Ozil, but the German has a history of going missing in the big games, especially away from home.

The Gunners last beat a fellow ‘Big Six’ team away in the league back in January 2015, losing 11 of 14 trips to such outfits since the start of 2016/17, suggesting Unai Emery hasn’t quite solved the problems that plagued the latter years of Arsene Wenger’s tenure.

In fact, their away record at all venues has been poor for some time, with one victory at Huddersfield and four defeats in their last seven, so the money is on Spurs to bounce back.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs to Win at $2.12


Man Utd v Southampton

Mar 3rd, 2.00am AEDT

Southampton secured a massive three points against Fulham midweek to move out of the relegation zone in what was a timely win as they face Spurs after this trip to Old Trafford. Since Ralph Hasenhuttl took over, they’ve visited two of the ‘Big Six’ and on both occasions the Austrian set his side up very defensively, playing Nathan Redmond as a sole striker at the Emirates last weekend.

They managed a goalless draw at Chelsea and although they lost 2-0 against Arsenal, they restricted the Gunners to just four shots on target and we can expect a similar approach here.

Despite injury concerns, Man Utd ground out another win at Selhurst Park to make it nine from 11 unbeaten matches in the league under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.

The Norwegian is still unable to call on the likes of Ander Herrera, Juan Mata, Jesse Lingard, Nemanja Matic and Anthony Martial, but Marcus Rashford is expected to return and Romelu Lukaku reminded us what he is capable of with a brace at Palace.

Defensively though, they’ve steadied the ship as Victor Lindelof and Chris Smalling have emerged as really solid partnership, with the former in particular upping his game and acting like a titan at the back.

They’ve conceded just five goals in their last 11 domestically, shutting their opponents out in four of their last five and as we’re not expecting much from the Saints in attack, we’ll side with a home win to nil.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man Utd win to Nil at 2.4


Bournemouth v Man City

Mar 3rd, 2.00am AEDT

With just 10 games to go, it’s all to play for in the title race. Despite dominating proceedings, Man City registered a nervy 1-0 victory over West Ham to maintain pace with Liverpool. This however, represents a fantastic opportunity to pile the pressure on Jurgen Klopp’s men as they play the day before and injury-stricken Bournemouth are the ideal opponents to face right now.

It was another chastening encounter against a ‘Big Six’ team for Eddie Howe’s men as they were hammered 5-1 at the Emirates midweek. It means they’ve lost 19 of 22 against such sides since the start of last season, including nine defeats in 10 this term, giving up numerous chances as they’ve conceded an average of 3.3 goals per game across these defeats.

City have won all seven of their meetings with Bournemouth since the Cherries were promoted to the top-flight and there is little reason to think that will change here. To get the Citizens onside we like the look of them winning both halves.

Bournemouth have one way of playing under Howe and as a result they give up so many chances, especially against quality teams. Pep Guardiola’s charges were dominant against the Hammers and should have gone into half-time ahead, but instead it took until he second-half to break the deadlock.

Prior to that, they’d won 11 of 12 halves form their last six matches, with the exception when they let a one goals lead slip at Newcastle.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City to win both halves at 2.45


Watford v Leicester

Mar 3rd, 11.00pm AEDT

Brendan Rodgers was in the stands at the King Power to watch Leicester beat Brighton and put an end to their six-game winless streak. It’s very much in the Northern Irishman’s ethos to play attack-minded football and in Jamie Vardy, James Maddison and Damari Grey, he has the players at his disposal to do so.

The Foxes are one of the most profitable teams when backing both teams to score and their 2-1 victory over Seagulls means it’s landed in 17 of their 28 games this term, the third-highest behind Man Utd and Arsenal. It’s also occurred in 70% of their away games since the start of last season and the appointment of Rodgers is hardly going to slow this trend down.

Watford were disappointing at Anfield but it’s a game they can just put a line through. They’re still enjoying a fantastic season as they tussle it out for the best of the rest.

Javi Gracia also has attacking quality amongst his ranks and indeed, the only sides they’ve failed to score against at Vicarage Road are a stubborn Burnley, the best defence in Liverpool and Bournemouth when they went down to 10-men early on. As a result, both teams have netted in seven of their last 12 here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – BTTS – Yes at 1.75


Fulham v Chelsea

Mar 4th, 1.05am AEDT

This is perhaps the least anticipated of the Premier League derbies given the current discrepancy between the clubs in the table. So much so that Fulham look destined to return to the Championship after losing to Southampton midweek as they’re now 10 points form safety.

As a result, Claudio Ranieri was sacked after just 16 games in charge where he only won three times, losing seven of his last eight. However, we don’t think this will be a situation where we witness an upturn in performance as many of the players already look resigned to life back in the second tier.

Chelsea have improved massively since losing to the two Manchester cubs in the league and then the FA Cup. They’ve beaten Malmo easily 3-0, held Man City for 120 minutes at Wembley and deservedly beaten Spurs 2-0 at Stamford Bridge.

Now, their away form in the league doesn’t make for great reading with three consecutive defeats, 12 goals conceded and none scored, but two of these were at ‘Big Six’ opponents and Craven Cottage is hardly an intimidating venue.

In fact, the Blues have won all six of their trips to bottom-eight clubs under Maurizio Sarri, while Fulham have lost all nine fixtures with ‘Big Six’ opponents this term, conceding at least twice in each of these.

Like the reverse fixture, we’ll take a punt on the 2-0 correct score. The Blues attack hasn’t been firing on all cylinders recently, only once scoring more than twice in their last 16 league outings (netting exactly twice on six occasions), and Fulham have conceded exactly twice in five of their last seven.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea 2-0 Correct Score at 8.22


Everton v Liverpool

Mar 4th, 3.15am AEDT

The Toffees have struggled to produce their best this term and are just W5-D2-L10 across all competitions since the start of December, but derbies can often deviate from the norm. They’ll certainly be a rousing atmosphere at Goodison Park as the home fans will their team on to prevent their city rivals from taking another step towards the title, and there’ll be plenty of frayed nerves in the red half of Merseyside with this a fixture they’ve struggled to win in recent times.

Divock Origi popped up in the 96th minute to steal the three points when these two last met back in December at Anfield, preventing a third stalemate in four meetings, but Liverpool have only emerged victorious in one of their previous six visits to this ground since October 2012 as they drew the others.

Indeed, seven of the 10 head-to-heads at all venues since 2014/15 have seen fewer than three goals, while Liverpool have had four low-scoring draws in their last six outings across all competitions.

However, although there’s a strong prospect of Liverpool dropping crucial points as they struggle to contain the pressure, Everton’s record against ‘Big Six’ sides leaves a lot to be desired as they’ve lost 14 of 19 winless games since the start of last season and failed to net in 11. With that in mind, we’d avoid the match outcome and stick to backing a lack of goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 2.5 Goals at 1.96

Arsenal v Bournemouth

Feb 28th, 6.45am AEDT

Arsenal moved back inside the top four with victory over a struggling Saints outfit. It continued their trends of easing past non-‘Big Six’ sides at the comforts of the Emirates. Indeed, the Gunners have won 23 of 24 such matches since the start of last term, with the exception against an impressive Wolves side. 17 of these victories were by at least two clear strikes and given Bournemouth’s woeful recent record on the road, we expect Unai Emery’s men to cover the handicap again.

Indeed, the Cherries have lost their last eight away from the Vitality Stadium, conceding at least twice in each while netting just three goals of their own. They’ve lost 3-1 at Man City, 5-0 at Spurs, 4-1 at Man Utd and 3-0 at Liverpool during this run, as they’ve gone down by at least a two-goal margin in 12 of their 17 trips to the ‘Big Six’ since the start of 2016/17. They’re still without two of their best attackers this term – Callum Wilson and David Brooks – and in their five away games this season without the latter, they’ve lost all five trips by two or more goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Arsenal -1.5 Asian Handicap at 2.25


Chelsea v Spurs

Feb 28th, 7.00am AEDT

Although there will be awkward moments on the training ground at Chelsea this week, Maurizio Sarri will at least be able to reflect upon what was a good performance from his side as the dust settles on their League Cup final defeat. They kept City quiet for 120 minutes at Wembley, though a repeat goalless stalemate here appears highly unlikely with five of the past six head-to-head meetings featuring at least three goals, while half saw four or more.

Mauricio Pochettino has done a fine job at Spurs but his W3-D7-L12 record when visiting fellow ‘Big Six’ sides isn’t great to put it mildly, as they conceded at least twice in over half of these matches. The last five such meetings since December 2017 have each seen three goals or more, as all but one of them featured a minimum of four strikes, while current form for both clubs suggest that this encounter is also set go ‘overs’.

The hosts have seen Over 2.5 Goals land in seven of their last nine across all competitions, as have Spurs in 11 of their last 15, while the return of Harry Kane will only increase the likelihood of a high-scoring game. The England captain made a goal-scoring return at Burnley, and though it perhaps limited the influence of Heung-min Son slightly, the duo demonstrated earlier in the season that they could play together. In fact, Kane has benefited massively from his strike partner as he’s netted 12 goals from 12 matches when both have started in the league this term, compared with just three in 10 when the Korean hasn’t been in the starting line-up with him.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 1.89


Crystal Palace v Man Utd

Feb 28th, 7.00am AEDT

United’s defensive resolve hosting Liverpool in the face of multiple injuries will have greatly pleased Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, but though he has a depleted squad to choose from, he can still point to an unbeaten domestic record of 11 wins from 13 matches as his side have kept clean sheets in each of the last four. He can at least point to a firm back four now, with Chris Smalling doing enough over the past few matches to suggest he deserves to partner Victor Lindelof until a new signing can be made in the summer.

That’s in contrast to Palace, with Roy Hodgson likely to have to make do without key centre-back Mamadou Sakho. The former Frenchman is a colossal at the back for the Eagles and is quite possibly joined on the sidelines by in-demand full-back Aaron Wan-Bissaka. Palace have been in good form of late but their 4-1 victory away at Leicester somewhat flattered them as they were second best before Michy Batshuayi’s rather fortuitous goal.

The Eagles have picked up more points on the road than at Selhurst Park this term and while some considerable successes such as the 3-2 win at the Etihad this term have pinpointed them as a team that can cause an upset in people’s mind, these triumphs invariably come away from home. They’re not usually embarrassed though, and nine of their 15 defeats to the ‘Big Six’ since the start of last season have been by just the solitary strike. Given United will have to work hard without their absentees, while they’ve won by a single goal margin in three of their last four visits to Selhurst Park, the winning margin appears the way to go here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man Utd to win by 1 goal at 4.0


Liverpool v Watford

Feb 28th, 7.00am AEDT

Having entered 2019 seven points clear at the top of the Premier League, the pressure has slightly got to Liverpool as they’ve gone just W3-D4-L2 in all competitions since. Their victories in this time have been narrow ones over Brighton and Palace and a comfortable 3-0 success hosting Bournemouth, but the Cherries have a mountain of injuries and have been woefully out of form for some time now. 7th placed Watford have out-performed each of these teams this season and they’ll look to take advantage of a Reds attack shot of confidence. Indeed, Jurgen Klopp’s men have netted more than once in just two of those nine games since the turn of the year, only mustering one shot on target at Old Trafford against an injury-stricken United side. Now, at Anfield they tend to be far more prolific, but with Man City hosting West Ham at the same time it promises to be another tense atmosphere.

What’s more, their attack is weakened as Roberto Firmino went of injured at United and is unlikely to feature here. Despite not being in the best form, the Brazilian is still a crucial link between Mane and Salah and without him, they’ve won just three of eight matches since the start of last season as Liverpool have scored an average of 1.38 goals per game across these, compared to 2.32 gpg in the 57 he has started.

Watford arrive with their tails up having just put five past Cardiff. They’re an impressive W8-D4-L2 over their last 14 in all competitions, only losing narrowly 2-1 to Spurs and Chelsea in this time. In fact, they’ve covered the +1.5 handicap in six of their eight meeting with ‘Big Six’ opposition in all competitions this term, and given Liverpool’s recent anxieties, we’re happy to get behind the Hornets again.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Watford +1.5 Asian Handicap at 2.08


Man City v West Ham

Feb 28th, 7.00am AEDT

Although they were unable to breach the Chelsea defence for 120 minutes and had to rely on a penalty shootout, Man City won the first major trophy of the season and the unprecedented quadruple is still on! However, their squad is set to be tested over the next few weeks, especially defensively as the Aymeric Laporte and the all-important Fernandinho join John Stones and Benjamin Mendy in the treatment room. Their only league defeat at the Etihad came in the Brazilian’s absence, while they also lost at Leicester in the other match he missed. In fact, if we go back to the start of the 2015/16 season, their win ratio is up at 69% in his 120 starts, but that drops to 57% in the 21 he’s missed, as they’ve conceded on average of 55% more goals per game.

That defeat at the Etihad was at the hands of Crystal Palace and like the Eagles, West Ham have players who can hurt the Citizens on the counter. However, the Hammers have lost 10 of 14 winless trips to the ‘Big Six’ since 2016/17, so it may be a bit of a stretch to suggest they’re going to leave with all three points. Both teams netted 11 of these though and as City have only kept two clean sheets in their last nine league games here, both teams to score appears the best play.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Both teams to score at 2.0


Leicester v Brighton

Feb 27th, 6.45am AEDT

A 4-1 defeat hosting Crystal Palace was the final nail in the coffin for Claude Puel as he was sacked just a day later. It was the first time in 19 years the Foxes have lost four consecutive league games at the King Power, but they have a chance to turn that form around as they host a Brighton side notoriously poor on the road.

Indeed, since their promotion last term, no side in the Premier League to partake in both seasons has secured fewer points on their travels than the Seagulls, as even Huddersfield have amassed one more than their 19 points. They are just W2-D2-L9 away from home this term, conceding at least twice in each of their last four, including four at 19th placed Fulham last time.

What’s more, a change of management has often resulted in a short-term upturn in form for Leicester. Puel is the fourth manager to be sacked by the owners since they returned to the top-flight and on the previous three occasions, they’ve won the match immediately after.

Whereas Nigel Pearson departed over the summer, there were reports of player unrest when Claudio Ranieri was shown the door and the Foxes won their first game under Puel, as well as the encounter before with interim coach Michael Appleton in charge.

This is a similar situation as the players have been vocal in their disdain towards the Frenchman’s tactics and so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a reaction here with the shackles released.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Leicester to Win at 1.92

Burnley vs Spurs

Feb 23rd, 11.30pm AEDT

Burnley are starting to show the kind of form and resilience that saw them finish seventh last year. They’re on a run four victories from seven unbeaten games in the league and although they managed a point at Old Trafford during this period, they’ve lost their remaining six matches against the Big Six this term, as well as a 5-0 drubbing by Man city in the FA Cup.

They’ll no doubt try and make things awkward for Spurs, as they did when it took a late Christian Eriksen strike to down them in the reverse fixture, but the visitors have regularly found ways of winning these types of matches and we expect them to do so again.

As well has their 3-0 victory over Dortmund, Mauricio Pochettino’s men will take a huge amount of confidence of winning their last four in the league without some of their star names, and in turn gaining ground on Liverpool and Man City. Heung-Min Son has stepped up to the plate in the absence of Harry Kane and Dele Alli, but the England duo have returned to training to provide the squad a further boost.

There is now a four-point gap between Everton in 9th and Watford in 8th and excluding the those top-eight sides, Spurs have been prolific in winning all 16 matches this season and they’re a backable price to do so again, especially as the Clarets have lost eight of nine winless matches hosting the ‘Big Six’ since the start of last term

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs Win at 1.7


Bournemouth vs Wolves

Feb 24th, 2.00am AEDT

Bournemouth briefly threatened to turn their woeful form around with successive victories over West Ham and Chelsea, but have since reverted to losing games, suffering defeats at Cardiff and Liverpool, meaning they’ve now lost seven of their last 11 with all their defeats by at least a two-goal margin. The man who inspired them to their 4-0 thrashing of Chelsea was David Brooks, but he has since missed the two defeats as the Cherries have scored just once and lost all five matches without the Welshman this term. Moreover, top scorer Callum Wilson is also sidelined and in the 21 games the striker has missed since the start of last term, they’ve lost 67%, compared to just 35% of the 43 he has started.

The hosts look there for the taking and Wolves are certainly the type of team that can take advantage. Nuno’s men have put in a coupe of sensational away performances recently at Spurs and Everton and they’re on a run of five victories from seven matches in all competitions. With their tails up, they should have enough to see off their below par and diminished opposition.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Wolves Win at 2.6


Leicester v Crystal Palace

Feb 24th, 4.30am AEDT

Palace have picked up a remarkable 23 of their 27 points against either the top seven in the table or those down in the bottom six. That should encourage Leicester that they can restore some form, though the Eagles can boast three consecutive victories over them since the start of last season by a thumping aggregate score of 9-0, while they arrive in much better form in the present moment to boot.

The Foxes have lost five of six winless matches across all competitions, even going down to League Two outfit Newport County in the FA Cup. Although they’ve been more competitive in their last four fixtures (all against teams in the top seven of the table), like Palace, they can often reserve their finest displays for the big games where they can defend deep and punch back on the counter.

Such an approach can often be suited better to playing on the road and indeed, Leicester and Palace would be down in 15th and 17th respectively in a table based on home results only, but 8th and 11th on away matches alone.

The Eagles are now unbeaten in five matches following wins over Spurs, Fulham and Doncaster, as well as stalemates with Southampton and West Ham. Although only that first result in the FA Cup was especially impressive, they’ve still won three of their last five on their travels, including wins over City and Wolves as their only defeat saw them go down 4-3 at Anfield.

With that in mind, Roy Hodgson’s men should at the very least avoid defeat and the prices afford some cover when backing them.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Crystal Palace +0.5 Asian handicap at 1.75


Arsenal v Southampton

Feb 25th, 1.05am AEDT

Although Southampton encountered problems in the attacking third at the seasons’ start, failing to register on the board in six of their opening 10 fixtures, they’ve since found the net in 14 of 16 matches and are much easier on the eye compared to when Mark Hughes was in charge. They should certainly fancy their chances of grabbing a goal this weekend, with the Gunners backline appearing vulnerable even at the Emirates.

Only two of Arsenal’s last nine there have seen them shut their opponents out, with one of those coming against the divisions’ most flimsy attack in Huddersfield and the other versus an imploding Chelsea outfit.

Unai Emery may not have seen his team register too many clean sheets, but they get the job done on home turf with great consistency. Indeed, the Gunners have won an incredible 22 of 23 unbeaten matches hosting those outside the ‘Big Six’ since the start of last season, even if they’ve conceded a strike in four of five encounters with bottom-half sides in the current campaign despite winning each of them.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Arsenal and both teams to score at 2.82


Man Utd v Liverpool

Feb 25th, 1.05am AEDT

Although a defeat hosting PSG brought some perspective to Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s fine start, United remain unbeaten from 12 domestic matches under the Norwegian, winning 11 of them, with the latest a superb display as they beat Chelsea 2-0 in the FA Cup. However, Liverpool won’t roll over quite so easily and in Jurgen Klopp, they possess a manager that won’t be afraid to deviate from the initial plan if the situation commands a change.

The visitors have shown some nerves in recent games with three tense stalemates across their last four in all competitions, while they’re only W3-D3-L2 from their last eight matches as they could only beat bottom-half sides Brighton, Palace and Bournemouth. However, the two defeats came against Man City in a tightly fought contest and Wolves in the FA Cup when fielding a heavily weakened line-up, and you have to go back to their own defeat away at PSG in the Champions League group stages back in November for their previous loss.

Liverpool recorded their first victory over United in nine attempts across all competitions the last time these two met, but that clash was the final nail in the coffin for Jose Mourinho and the mood at Old Trafford is significantly different now. Four of the previous five head-to-head encounters ended in a stalemate, and so Liverpool are likely to end up frustrated in their attempts to make maximum use of their game in hand over City.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Draw at 3.6


West Ham vs Fulham

Feb 23rd, 6:45am AEDT

Fulham’s time is starting to run out as they’re now eight points from safety. They’ve lost five of their last six, conceding at least twice in each of these games, as the sole exception was a 4-2 success at Craven Cottage against notoriously poor travellers Brighton. Away from home they’ve been well and truly awful, picking up a pathetic two points from their 13 trips while shipping an average of 2.46 per game. The fact that their best defender Alfie Mawson remains sidelined doesn’t help their cause and indeed, they’ve lost 12 of their 14 matches without him this term, compared to just five in the 12 he’s started.

West Ham may not be in the best of form, but they have enough quality amongst their ranks to deal with Claudio Ranieri’s men, as they did convincingly in the reverse fixture 2-0. They’re winless in four but their only home game in this run was an encouraging draw with Liverpool. Indeed, the only sides to leave the London Stadium with maximum points in their last 11 here are Man City, Spurs and Watford as they’ve beaten the likes of Man Utd and Arsenal as well as all triumphing in three of four unbeaten matches against bottom-eight teams.

In fact, solely looking at bottom-six opposition, they’ve won six of eight games here since the start of last season and they look a pretty generous price for the three points.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – West Ham Win at 1.87

Fulham v Man Utd

Feb 9th, 11:30pm AEDT

United have enjoyed the upper hand in their clashes with Leicester in recent times, winning five of six meetings across all competitions since the start of 2016/17. These were entertaining affairs for the neutral with five of them featuring at least three goals, despite the dour Jose Mourinho leading the Red Devils throughout this period.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has got his charges playing more on the front foot and so we’d expect this encounter to follow a similar pattern, though the visitors won’t have an easy ride to take all three points at the King Power.

The Foxes have excelled in recent meetings with the ‘Big Six’ as they forced Man City to penalties in domestic cup action, before proceeding to beat the reigning champions as well as Chelsea in the league. Their last outing saw them take an impressive point away from Anfield, with each of these matches coming since mid-December.

In Jamie Vardy, they have a striker with a fantastic track record against the ‘Big Six’, netting 20 goals in 31 starts across all competitions since the start of 2016/17, and it would be no surprise to see the former England international slipped in on goal in a similar manner to Ashley Barnes for Burnley’s opener on Tuesday. With that in mind, the goals market appears more profitable than any match outcome.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man Utd & Over 2.5 Goals at 2.25


Huddersfield v Arsenal

Feb 10th, 2:00am AEDT

It was a chastening afternoon for Huddersfield at Stamford Bridge as the quality of Eden Hazard and Gonzalo Higuain proved too much, while their deficiencies going forward were there for all to see. A return of just 13 league goals this season is a major factor in why they are stranded at the foot of the table, but they do at least tend to be more competitive on home soil.

Indeed, despite only beating Fulham here this term, they’ve only twice lost by more than a two-goal margin – to Chelsea and Man City – as eight of their remaining 11 matches have had fewer than three strikes. Furthermore, they’ve only trailed at half-time three times in their last eight here, so they could at least stay competitive for 45 minutes against Arsenal.

This is especially true as the Gunners have been notoriously slow starters under Unai Emery. Indeed, they’re yet to lead after 45 minutes on the road this season, going in level in eight of their 12 matches, including five of seven trips to bottom-half opponents.

They’ve often had to rely on their attack to pull them out of the fire as only three sides have conceded more on their travels than Arsenal, but even that has started to suffer recently. It took them until the second-half to register a shot on target hosting Cardiff recently, while they could only muster two on target at the Etihad last weekend.

They’ve not scored more than once in their last four away games, so much like the reverse fixture, we’ll back these to go into half-time all square.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – HT Draw at 2.4


Liverpool v Bournemouth

Feb 10th, 2:00am AEDT

After their local rivals couldn’t do them a favour, Liverpool trail City for the first time since mid-December, albeit they have a game in hand. Given momentum has stalled with a pair of 1-1 draws, while they don’t play again until their Champions League meeting with Bayern in 10 days’ time, this becomes a huge match and and a must win for them.

Fortunately for Jurgen Klopp, they take on a Bournemouth outfit that have lost seven on the bounce on the road.

After their heroics of hammering Chelsea 4-0 at home, the Cherries crashed back down to earth with a 2-0 defeat at Cardiff. That result against the Blues is looking more and more like a flash in the pan rather than Eddie Howe’s men turning really turning a corner.

They’ve had a horror show travelling to the Big Six this term, losing all four such trips by a 14-2 aggregate scoreline, meaning they’ve lost nine of 10 such trips since the start of last season, failing to score in seven of these defeats.

To add to their woes, the visitors are without their top scorer and joint-third top scorer – Callum Wilson and David Brooks – who also have six and four assists this season respectively. Although the former missed the 4-0 beating of Chelsea, the latter was very influential that day, providing a goal and an assist.

They’ve netted just once and lost all four matches without the young Welshman this term, while without Wilson starting, the Cherries average goals per game drops from 1.56 to 0.75 since the start of last season, failing to score in six of the last eight. Moreover, Trent Alexander-Arnold is expected to return the starting line-up this weekend for Liverpool, bringing a greater balance to the back-four that saw them concede just once in their first seven matches at Anfield this season.

Therefore, with the Reds’ attack not firing on all cylinders, the win to nil is of much greater appeal than backing the hosts on the handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool win to Nil at 2.1


Watford v Everton

Feb 10th, 2:00am AEDT

Marco Silva is not well-loved in these parts after voicing his aspirations for the Everton job while still in charge at Vicarage Road. As we all the frosty reception they’ll no doubt give, Hornets fans can afford to be smug about the situation as they’re a point and a place above the Toffees, with speculation growing around Silva’s future at the club.

Since the beginning of December, only the Premier League’s bottom two – Huddersfield and Fulham – have earned fewer points than the visitors 11. Another defeat midweek, albeit to Man City, was their ninth in 15 in all competitions – an alarming slump in form – and includes five losses in seven on the road at the likes of Brighton, Southampton and Millwall in the FA Cup.

Watford, meanwhile, are enjoying a stellar campaign under Javi Gracia. They’ve suffered just two defeats in 10 league outings since early December as they went down 2-1 against both Chelsea and Spurs.

They were unfortunate not to beat Marco Silva’s team when they met during this recent spell as Lucas Digne rescued an undeserved point with a late free-kick. The Hornets have won this fixture in each of the past two seasons, while excluding ‘Big Six’ opponents, they’re W4-D2-L1 in the league at home this term and their visitors appear there for the taking.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Watford Win at 2.31


Spurs v Leicester

Feb 11th, 12:30am AEDT

On the surface, Leicester’s form looks pretty dire with five defeats from their last seven outings in all tournaments. However, they haven’t been battered by anyone with each of these defeats coming by a one-goal margin, while they’ve been highly competitive in recent encounters with Big Six sides and Spurs cannot afford any complacency here.

Their past two matches have seen them become just the second team to walk away with a point from Anfield this season, while they had their chances to level the scores hosting United as they succumbed to Marcus Rashford’s ninth-minute winner.

Meanwhile, they’ve also taken Man City to penalties in cup action before inflicting a defeat on them and Chelsea in the league since mid-December.

Despite those results, Leicester are only W1-D2-L9 when travelling to Big Six teams in the league since the start of 2017, with just the solitary goal separating them in six of these defeats. They also benefited recently from City and Chelsea suffering their own mini-blips in form as well as a nervous Liverpool side desperate to land the title, and so another narrow defeat appears on the cards.

Indeed, while Spurs have left it late in their last three outings they prevailed nonetheless, while four of their last five victories at Wembley across all competitions have been by just the single strike.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs to win by 1 goal at 3.5


Man City v Chelsea

Feb 11th, 3:00am AEDT

Thanks to a hard-fought 2-0 triumph at Goodison Park midweek, Man City reached the summit of the table for the first time since mid-December. Although Liverpool may well have taken the lead once more by the time this fixture kicks-off, there’ll be no shortage of momentum behind Pep Guardiola and his men as the title race is well and truly on.

Prior to their success on Merseyside, the Citizens put Arsenal away with ease at the Etihad, proving their defeat at Newcastle was nothing more than a blip. As a result, City have led at both half-time and full-time in six of their last seven league outings, as well as five of seven encounters with ‘Big Six’ teams this term, including all three at home.

It’s difficult to get too excited about Chelsea’s 5-0 hammering of Championship-bound Huddersfield at Stamford Bridge. Their away from is of much more concerning having been dismantled 4-0 in their latest trip at Bournemouth, while they’ve also been blown away in their two league trips to ‘Big Six’ opponents – at Arsenal and Spurs.

There’s no doubting who’ll be taking the initiative in this clash and indeed, City have opened the scoring in each of their last 15 games across all tournaments, while they were ahead inside half an hour in 13 of these.

Meanwhile, 17 of the 20 goals they’ve shipped at the Etihad under Guardiola when facing ‘Big Six’ opponents have come during the second half, so if Chelsea are to make it onto the scoresheet it will likely be in response to failing behind. With this in mind, Man City/Man City half-time/full-time is the standout bet.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City/Man City HT/Ft at 2.3

Leicester v Man Utd

Feb 4th, 1:05am AEDT

United have enjoyed the upper hand in their clashes with Leicester in recent times, winning five of six meetings across all competitions since the start of 2016/17. These were entertaining affairs for the neutral with five of them featuring at least three goals, despite the dour Jose Mourinho leading the Red Devils throughout this period.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has got his charges playing more on the front foot and so we’d expect this encounter to follow a similar pattern, though the visitors won’t have an easy ride to take all three points at the King Power.

The Foxes have excelled in recent meetings with the ‘Big Six’ as they forced Man City to penalties in domestic cup action, before proceeding to beat the reigning champions as well as Chelsea in the league. Their last outing saw them take an impressive point away from Anfield, with each of these matches coming since mid-December.

In Jamie Vardy, they have a striker with a fantastic track record against the ‘Big Six’, netting 20 goals in 31 starts across all competitions since the start of 2016/17, and it would be no surprise to see the former England international slipped in on goal in a similar manner to Ashley Barnes for Burnley’s opener on Tuesday. With that in mind, the goals market appears more profitable than any match outcome.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 1.86


Man City vs Arsenal

Feb 4th, 3:30am AEDT

Man City were stunned by Newcastle in what could have been a cruel blow in the title race, but with Liverpool failing to fully capitalize with just a point against Leicester, the Citizens will still have plenty of belief. We’re expecting a strong reaction from Pep Guardiola’s charges and Aguero and co will fancy their chances against this depleted Arsenal defence.

Key defensive members Hector Bellerin, Laurent Koscielny and Sokratis are all sidelined and although they overcame Cardiff 2-1 with a make-shift back-four, they actually gave up more shots to the struggling Welsh club. Add to this their poor performances away from the Emirates, where they’ve lost three of five winless trips, and it could be a2difficult afternoon for Unai Emery’s men

Man City have had that one blemish hosting Palace, but otherwise they’ve won their remaining 11 matches at the Etihad, often starting fast as they led at the break in nine of these. In fact, City have opened the scoring in each of their last 13 matches across all competitions, bagging the opener inside half an hour in 12 of these and within 20 minutes in eight.

A real trait of the Gunners under Emery has been slow starts as they’re yet to lead at the break in 11 away matches. That included a four-goal blitz for Liverpool in their trip to Anfield recently and we can see a similar turn of events here. Indeed, City have led at both half-time and full-time in their four fixtures with Arsenal in all competitions since the start of last season, and it looks the best option again.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City/Man City HT/FT at 1.91


West Ham vs Liverpool

Feb 5th, 7:00am AEDT

West Ham have lost three in a row in all competitions and although one of these was to lower league opposition in the FA Cup, the most concerning was their midweek defeat to Wolves. They were outplayed in all facets of the game, allowing their oppositions ample opportunities.

While the Hammers have managed some impressive performances at home against ‘Big Six’ teams this term, they look short of confidence ahead of this clash with the league leaders, not to mention a length injury list.

It’s telling that the only ‘Big Six’ side to come here and win comfortable was Man City, as the very best attacks have enjoyed the extra space on offer at the London Stadium. Indeed, Liverpool won here 4-1 last season, which is one of a sequence of four matches where they’ve scored four goals against West Ham at all venues. Whether they’ll continue that sequence remains to be seen, but they also lead at half-time in each which is the angle we like again.

They weren’t firing on all cylinders hosting Leicester as they gave away a one-goal lead, but that was perhaps down to nerves. With a much-improved defence this season, generally they’ve shown a fantastic ability to hold on to leads this term, especially against weaker opposition. If we exclude matches with fellow ‘Big Six’ sides, then the Reds have scored first in 15 of their 17 matches and gone on to win 14 of these, with 11 half-time/full-time doubles.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool/Liverpool HT/FT at 2.0


Spurs v Newcastle

Feb 2nd, 11:30pm AEDT

Newcastle have earnt a reputation for being rather low-scoring under Rafa Benitez but five goals in the past two outings have somewhat challenged that perception. They’ve actually found the net in seven of nine encounters with the ‘Big Six’ this term, including three of four on their travels as only a Liverpool side that kept seven clean sheets across their first nine at Anfield this term could keep them at bay.

The two goals they managed against City last time out is made all the more impressive when considering Pep Guardiola’s outfit had kept six clean sheets on the bounce across all competitions, as they only goal they conceded during January came right at the beginning in their title showdown with the Reds.

Spurs have actually failed to shut out their opponents in each of their last five in all tournaments, while in the league alone their solitary clean sheet in five outings has come against relegation-threatened Cardiff.

Their last two games have seen them fall behind to both Fulham and Watford, and though Mauricio Pochettino will have been pleased at the manner in which his troops rallied to secure late wins and cement their grip on a top-three spot in the final standings, it can’t disguise the fact that they’ve only kept three clean sheets from 11 outings at Wembley this term.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Both teams to score at 2.12


Chelsea vs Huddersfield

Feb 3rd, 2:00am AEDT

Chelsea were humiliated 4-0 at Bournemouth mid-week, their worst league defeat since 1996, but if there is one fixture they could wish for next it would be Huddersfield at home. The Terriers are on a run of 10 defeats from 11 winless matches as new boss Jan Siewert was unable to turn around their fortunes with a 1-0 defeat at home to Everton.

They had the same amount of shots as the Toffees, but their Achilles heel all season has been actually been putting the ball in the back of the net, with their shot conversion rate of 6.84% the worst in the Premier League by some distance. Their baron run has seen them score just five times, but we do know they’ll be organised and will go to Stamford Bridge with a tactic of frustrating their hosts.

This was a tactic they deployed recently at the Emirates, where it took Arsenal to the 83rd minute to break the deadlock. Indeed, despite their lowly league position, they’ve only twice lost by more than two goals in their last 22 matches, with one of these a recent 3-0 home defeat to Man City.

All does not look well at Chelsea, so the three points is the priority here, rather than a scintillating performance. New signing Gonzalo Higuain failed to register a single shot on his debut, as their troubles going forward look like they aren’t going to improve dramatically anytime soon.

It’s been 13 matches since they’ve scored more than twice, while at home, only one of their seven victories this season has been by a margin greater than two goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Huddersfield +2.0 Asian Handicap at 1.98


Everton vs Wolves

Feb 3rd, 2:00am AEDT

Despite Lucas Digne being sent off with 25 minutes left to play, Everton held on to win 1-0 at Huddersfield after going ahead in the third-minute. Even when it was 11 vs 11, they were hardly impressive against the worst team in the division and they’ll be up against it facing an in-form Wolves outfit.

Indeed, the Toffees are just W3-D0-L5 over their last eight in the league, but the other two victories in this time came at Burnley, while they were very fortunate to beat a horribly out-of-form Bournemouth at home. The Cherries are the only side above the bottom-eight they’ve beaten at Goodison this term, and having lost to the likes of Brighton, Leicester and Southampton, as well as Millwall in the FA Cup recently, we’re happy to take Marco Silva’s men on at the prices.

After their mid-season dip, Wolves have gone W6-D1-L3 across their last 10, with two of these defeats against the runaway leaders Man City and Liverpool. They put in one of the more dominant performances of the whole season in thrashing West Ham 3-0 midweek as they carved out chance after chance.

Having put four past Leicester the time before, their attack will be full of confidence and they look particularly threatening out wide in the wing-back position and can take advantage of Everton’s issues at left-back with Digne suspended and Leighton Baines injured.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Wolves 0 Asian Handicap at 2.35

Bournemouth v Chelsea

Jan 31st, 6.45m AEDT

Bournemouth may have overcome West Ham when last seen, but it means they’re just W3-D1-L9 since the Autumn, with six of these defeats coming at the hands of ‘Big Six’ opponents. That has been their Achilles heel for a while now and indeed, they’ve lost 17 of 19 such encounters since the start of last season.

11 of these have been by at least two clear goals and with their defence looking as porous as ever, while strikers Joshua King and more importantly Callum Wilson are both doubts, it could be another ugly night for Eddie Howe’s men.
Chelsea lost at Arsenal when last seen in the league, but they’ve since bounce back to beat both of Spurs and Sheffield Wednesday in cup competitions. The arrival if Gonzalo Higuain and the emergence of Callum Hudson-Odoi has taken a little bit of the pressure off Eden Hazard, and the Belgian can now play in his preferred and best position off the left.

He could have a field day against this Cherrie rearguard, and the Blues have generally not been troubled facing weaker opposition under Maurizio Sarri. They’ve won 11 of 13 unbeaten matches against current bottom-half teams, including all six on the road. They covered the -1 handicap in half of these, with the exceptions coming at Newcastle, Brighton and Palace – all sides far more defensively astute than Bournemouth.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea -1.0 Asian Handicap at 2.12


Liverpool v Leicester

Jan 31st, 6.45m AEDT

Liverpool’s defence has deservedly received plenty of plaudits this season, but the decision to allow right-back Nathaniel Clyne to depart to Bournemouth on loan is increasingly looking like a mistake following injuries to Alexander Trent-Arnold and Joe Gomez.

James Milner might be the ultimate utility man and a valued member of the team, but he lacks the athleticism to handle one-on-ones with tricky wingers and was given a torrid time by Wilfried Zaha before his sending off in the 4-3 thriller at Anfield. The Reds got away with that one, but although Fabinho is able to deputize in the position having featured there for the Brazilian national side, he’s being rushed back from a hamstring issue while key central defender Virgil van Dijk has been ill this week and it remains to be seen whether he’ll be able to produce normal levels of concentration.

The changes forced upon Liverpool’s backline have temporarily unsettled a well-drilled unit and they’ve failed to shut out their opponents in three of their last four at Anfield, compared to the six clean sheets across their opening seven there. Meanwhile, though Leicester’s attack hasn’t quite hit its potential this term, they’re starting to produce more in the final third as they’ve found the net in seven of their last eight across all competitions – including both encounters with Man City.

In fact, both teams have scored in all five league meetings between these two since 2016/17, with all of them featuring at least three goals as this has typically been an entertaining affair for the neutral.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Both teams to score at 2.1


Spurs v Watford

Jan 31st, 7.00m AEDT

Watford have already enjoyed some considerable success over Spurs this season, drawing in the Carabao Cup and downing them at Vicarage Road in the league, and they certainly won’t fear Mauricio Pochettino’s men on current form and with key absentees. That Harry Kane and Heung-min Son have been the principal goal-getters this term is well documented, but while the latter could return to play here, it remains to be seen whether he can pick up where he left off or if there’s any issue with jet lag.

Dele Alli also remains sidelined, leaving a heavy creative burden on Christian Eriksen, and having just shaded a win over Fulham, gone out of the Carabao Cup to Chelsea as well as the FA Cup to Palace, Spurs are there for the taking.

Watford are up in seventh and realistically that’s the best they could have aimed for at the seasons’ beginning. Although they’ve lost their subsequent five encounters with ‘Big Six’ teams since beating Spurs back in September, they’ve hardly been embarrassed either with three 2-1 defeats, as the biggest loss they suffered was a 3-0 inflicted by a rampant Liverpool.

The Hornets are currently unbeaten in six across all competitions, and with Spurs patched up and licking their wounds at present, this is a good time to be taking them on.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Watford +0.5 Asian Handicap at 2.42


Arsenal v Cardiff

Jan 30th, 6.45m AEDT

Arsenal will be disappointed about going out to rivals Man Utd in the FA Cup, especially as they’d beaten both Chelsea and Spurs at the Emirates in recent memory. This had been an improved area for the Gunners since the departure of Arsene Wenger, but like his predecessor, Unai Emery has had no problem dispatching the weaker teams here. Indeed, excluding ‘Big Six’ visitors, they’ve won seven of eight unbeaten matches, with six of these by at least a two-goal margin. Going back to the start of last season, they’ve triumphed in 21 of 22 such matches, covering the same handicap on 16 occasions.

Once again, Arsenal look short at the back with recent injuries to Hector Bellerin, Laurent Koscielny and Sokratis meaning Nacho Monreal is likely to have to fill in at centre-back. However, Cardiff are a team that have scored just once in their last five and may not be the club with the required skills to take advantage. While they might be able to get on the scoresheet, the likes of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette could have a field day against them. The Bluebirds have lost each of their seven matches versus the ‘Big Six’ across all venues this term, shipping three or more in six of these. So, even with their defensive injury concerns, the Gunners should have too much class for their visitors in the final third and can once again cover the handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Arsenal -1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.70


Manchester United v Burnley

Jan 30th, 6.45am AEDT

Following their comprehensive victory at the Emirates in the FA Cup, Man Utd stretched their winning run under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer to eight matches. Two of the last three of these were against quality opposition in Spurs and Arsenal and having previously shown a ruthless streak in beating weaker opposition, it should be another comfortable night for the Norwegian.

Burnley had put their best run of the season together prior to visiting the Etihad, winning four of five unbeaten games across all competitions, but this was largely down to a soft run of fixtures with three of those wins coming over Huddersfield, Barnsley and Fulham. The weekend cup action saw them battered 5-0 for the second time this season by an electric City side, meaning the Clarets have lost all seven matches with ‘Big Six’ sides across all competitions this season. They failed to score in five of these, while six saw them go down by at least two clear goals – including a 2-0 success for Mourinho’s United in the reverse fixture.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Manchester United -1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.85


Newcastle v Manchester City

Jan 30th, 6.45am AEDT

Rafa Benitez will have to use all of his tactical nous to get a result here but he’s proven it before facing Pep Guardiola that they can avoid embarrassment; with the three results since their promotion finishing 1-0, 2-1 and 3-1 in City’s favour. The Citizens arrive in red hot form having bagged 30 goals in seven games across all competitions this month, though 17 of these came against lower league opposition in cup action. In the league, they’ve only won three of their 11 away trips by more than two goals – against basement-dwellers Huddersfield, a Cardiff side that have struggled against the elite teams and a West Ham outfit that always seem to open up when City visit.

The Magpies are going to make life as difficult as possible for the champions and they’re worth siding with on the handicap. Despite their poor home record, they’ve only lost by more than a two-goal margin once this term, and since the start of last season, backing Newcastle +2 on the Asian Handicap when hosting ‘Big Six’ sides would have paid out in eight of 10 such matches, with the stake returned in the two exceptions.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Newcastle +2.0 Asian Handicap at 1.95

Liverpool v Palace

Jan 20th, 2.00pm AEDT

Despite not being at their best, Liverpool secured a crucial victory at Brighton to get back on track in the title race. Fabinho filled in admirably at centre-back, but Joel Matip is expected to return for this clash alongside Virgil van Dijk. However, James Milner will have to fill in at right-back as Trent Alexander-Arnold is the latest Reds defender to join the treatment room. Milner has proven very adaptable during his time on Merseyside, but he’ll have his hands full here with the dangerous Wilfred Zaha his direct competition.

In the early stages of his tenure with Palace, and before he was able to fully implement his tactics, Roy Hodgson took a pair of heavy beatings against the two Manchester clubs, but in their 16 matches against ‘Big Six’ opponents since then, they’ve remained competitive. They may only be W2-D3-L11 across these, but eight of the defeats were by just the solitary strike and only one was by more than two. Travelling to such opponents this term, the Eagles have beaten City, drawn at Old Trafford and although they lost 3-1 at Chelsea, it was 1-1 until the 65th minute before the Blues pulled away.

Hodgson’s men have registered 13 points on the road, compared to just nine at Selhurst Park, as they’re a much more dangerous side when they can set up to play counter-attacking football. This have been evident in their last five matches where they’ve lost to Watford and Chelsea at home and failed to beat Cardiff, but won at the Etihad and Wolves.

In fact, they’re the last side to beat Liverpool at Anfield in the league – all of 32 games ago – but the Reds have been close to perfect at home this term, with City the only side to stop them taking maximum points. However, during these tricky times regarding injuries, it’s all about the three points over the performance for Klopp, so we don’t see Palace being blown away here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Palace +2.0 Asian Handicap at 1.91


Man Utd vs Brighton

Jan 20th, 2.00pm AEDT

Man Utd made it six wins in a row in all competitions under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, with their latest victory at Spurs by far and away the most impressive of these. However, it took a David de Gea man of the match performance to secure all three points – something we often wrote in previews during the Mourinho years – but there was certainly evidence of improvement as they had the better of the first half.

They’ve comfortably beaten Huddersfield and Bournemouth here in the league under the Norwegian, but the Terriers are on a run of eight defeats in nine winless matches, while the Cherries aren’t faring much better with nine defeats in their last 12. Brighton should provide a much sterner test, as the Red Devils found out in a 3-2 defeat in the reverse fixture back in August.

That was one of two victories at the Amex against United for Brighton, and they only went down 1-0 in their trip to Old Trafford last term. In Lewis Dunk and Shane Duffy, they have one of the most organised centre-back parings in the division, and the pragmatic Chris Hughton certainly won’t set up to allow the likes of Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial space behind the defence as they were granted at Wembley.

They limited Liverpool to just a 1-0 victory last weekend and in their seven matches with ‘Big Six’ opposition this term, a 2-0 defeat at the Etihad is the only time they’ve gone down by more than a one goal margin.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Brighton +1.5 Asian Handicap at 2.02


Watford v Burnley

Jan 20th, 2.00pm AEDT

Burnley have won their last three in the league and their last four in all competitions, but we’re still not convinced they’re anything but a poor Premier League outfit. Victory over League One Barnsley in the FA Cup came courtesy of an injury time penalty, while in the league they won with a man advantage for almost 50 minutes away at rock-bottom Huddersfield, and they beat West Ham and Fulham at Turf Moor.

The Hammers certainly didn’t turn up that day and they we very fortunate to beat Fulham 2-1, as they failed to register a single shot on target. We think the Clarets will get found out now facing stronger opposition with seventh-placed Watford leading the way in the ‘best of the rest’ in the Premier League.

The Hornets’ only defeat in their last seven in the league was here in a narrow 2-1 defeat to Chelsea. That was actually one of five defeats from their last eight at Vicarage Road, which may not inspire confidence at first glance, but they’ve encountered a lot of the big guns recently and they’re W4-D1-L1 when excluding the ‘Big Six’ – with the defeat when reduced to 10-men against Bournemouth.

The Clarets only other victory on the road this term came at Cardiff and five of their seven defeats have bee by at least a two-goal margin.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Watford -1.0 Asian Handicap at 2.19


Arsenal vs Chelsea

Jan 20th, 4.30pm AEDT

With Man Utd’s resurgence, there is now a lot more pressure on these two in the race for the top four. Fifth-placed Arsenal trail fourth-placed Chelsea by six points, so Unai Emery’s men really can’t afford to lose here. Although there was plenty negativity surrounding their recent defeat at West Ham, the Gunners have been poor travellers for the last couple of seasons, but it hasn’t stopped them from maintaining a very strong record at the Emirates.

Therefore, we think there has been an over-reaction in the market to their recent defeats at the London Stadium and Anfield and would have this as a pick’em game rather than at the current disparity.

Chelsea have proven to be very capable of dismissing weaker opposition under Maurizio Sarri, but they’ve been less convincing against stronger opposition. Indeed, the Blues are just W3-D4-L3 against 11th-placed Wolves and above, despite six of these taking place at the Bridge. Aside from a 2-1 Carabao Cup victory over Liverpool back in September when they were playing with much greater verve, they’ve lost both their other trips to ‘Big Six’ opposition as Spurs have beaten them in that competition and the league, with their lack of a striker costing them most recently.

With no standout no.9, there is still and over-reliance on Hazard or Willian to produce some magic. Conversely, Arsenal have two top marksmen in Aubameyang and Lacazette and on their day, they look capable of beating anyone. Since losing to City in Emery’s first home game, they’ve won eight of 10 unbeaten matches at the Emirates, which includes a victory over Spurs and a 1-1 draw with leaders Liverpool.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Arsenal 0 Asian Handicap at 2.21


Huddersfield v Man City

Jan 21st, 12.30am AEDT

In what could have been a tricky encounter, life was made very simple for Man City on Monday night as Wolves were reduced to 10-men after just 19 minutes of play. It helps maintain the pressure on Liverpool and since that crucial success over their title rivals, Pep Guardiola’s charges have really rediscovered their mojo, putting lower league opposition to the sword in cup competitions.

Huddersfield look as if they’re going to join those set of teams, as they’re now eight points from safety following a run of eight defeats from nine winless matches, culminating in the departure of David Wagner. The German still being there was perhaps one of the few positives for the Terriers this season and it’s difficult to see how anyone coming in is going to do a better job.

A City side with the bit between their teeth is the last team Huddersfield need visiting right now. Indeed, the Citizens have only travelled to two sides outside the top-11 this term, winning convincingly 3-1 and 5-0 at Southampton and Cardiff respectively.

They’ve also hammered Huddersfield and other bottom-six outfits Fulham, Burnley and Southampton (again) at home, so we envisage nothing but another easy three points. Our preferred method of getting the visitors onside is for City to win both halves, as they’ve done in six of their seven encounters with bottom-six teams this season.

Betting Strategy

 BACK -Man City to win both halves at 2.1


Fulham v Spurs

Jan 21st, 3.00am AEDT

Fulham can count themselves very unlucky to lose at Turf Moor, as two own-goals saw them defeated despite Burnley not mustering a shot on target. However, their defensive frailties were once against exposed, and to one of the divisions worst attacks, so although Spurs are without Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min, their attack still offers a lot more than the Clarets.

The Cottagers only victories this season have been against bottom-six clubs as they’ve been trounced by ‘Big Six’ opposition, losing all seven encounters while yielding an average of 3.29 goals per game.

If ever there was a game for Spurs to be without their two leading marksmen, then it’s a trip to the divisions worst defence. Pochettino’s side still possess plenty of quality with Christian Eriksen in top form, Dele Alli playing well and Lucas Moura enjoying a productive season. They’ve been fantastic on the road this term, winning 10 of 12 trips, with the exceptions at Watford and in the North London Derby. Furthermore, they’ve won a sensational 12 of 14 unbeaten trips to promoted sides under current management.

If Pochettino had decided to just rest Kane for this clash, then we don’t think they’d be as big as they are now. Indeed, Spurs have won seven of their last eight without Kane, as well as 12 of their 15 matches without Son against non-Big Six sides since the start of last season, so they’re still very backable at the prices

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs Win at 1.78

West Ham vs Arsenal

Jan 12th, 11.30pm AEDT

Both these sides comfortably won their FA Cup third round ties against lower league opposition and although they both have lengthy injury lists to deal with, the Hammers have many of their key attacking players fit and firing again. The main boost has been the return to fitness of Mark Arnautovic – who has three in his last two starts in all competitions – and having bullied the Arsenal defence for the first 45 minutes in the reverse fixture in their 3-1 defeat at the Emirates, he’ll relish the task at hand on Saturday.

What’s more, the Gunners rearguard has depleted since then and even if Unai Emery can call upon Shkodran Mustafi and Laurent Koscielny, the former last completed 90 minutes over a month ago, while the latter has looked out of sorts since returning from a long-term layoff.

However, Manual Pellegrini can’t exactly rely on his side at the back either having shipped at least twice in five of their last six at the London Stadium. This is despite Man City (who netted four times) being the only ‘Big Six’ visitors during this run. So, with both sides’ strengths being their attacks, this game has goals written all over it.

Indeed, four of the Hammers six meeting with ‘Big Six’ sides this term have had at least four strikes, while it’s the same ratio in the last six league meetings between these two. Furthermore, no side in the division have had more goals in their away games than Arsenal, as both teams have scored in all 10 of their trips with Over 3.5 Goals landing in seven.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 3.5 Goals at 2.39


Brighton vs Liverpool

Jan 13th, 2.00am AEDT

Liverpool’s momentum has been somewhat halted in the last week as they crashed out of the FA Cup, while their lead at the top of the standings has dropped from seven points to four. However, Jurgen Klopp took the opportunity to rest many of his big guns in the trip to Molineux, while losing narrowly 2-1 at the Etihad is no reason to be alarmed.

Their main stars will return for the trip to the Amex, but the manager has a decision to make in terms of who will partner Virgil Van Dijk at centre-back, with Dejan Lovren joining Joe Gomez and Joel Matip on the sidelines. Fabinho is the likely candidate and having received plaudits for their defensive strength for much of the season, the Reds suddenly look vulnerable and it’s an area Brighton will look to expose.

This is especially the case for the Seagulls at home where they hold and impressive W12-D11-L6 record since their promotion last term. They’ve only once failed to score in their last 17 here, as both teams netted in 12 of these.

With Liverpool’s firepower going forward and the hosts first-choice keeper Matt Ryan away on international duty, it looks the most likely outcome again. Indeed, the bet has landed in all four of Brighton’s matches hosting the ‘Big Six’ this term, while the Reds have conceded in over half of their roads trips this season.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – BTTS – Yes at 2.01


Leicester v Southampton

Jan 13th, 2.00am AEDT

Leicester continue to frustrate their fans and punters alike, as their last seven in all competitions has seen them beat and draw with Man City, beat Everton and Chelsea, but lose to Palace away, Cardiff at home and most recently go down to League Two Newport in the FA Cup. They take on a depleted Southampton side, but given their inconsistencies, we just can’t quite trust them for the full three points at a shade of odds-on.

For the Saints, Danny Ings and Stuart Armstrong are injured and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg is superseded – their three top scorers in the league this term. The latter has proven to be particularly influential under new management, even receiving the captain’s armband from Ralph Hasenhuttl. They’ll be lacking in firepower, but they proved in their last away trip that they can tough it out by recording a goalless draw at Stamford Bridge.

As a result, we’re leaning towards ‘unders’, especially with Leicester hardly banging them in themselves. The Foxes have netted more than once in just two of their last 14 league outings, resulting in 11 of their last 12 featuring fewer than three strikes.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 2.5 Goals at 1.83


Chelsea vs Newcastle

Jan 13th, 4.30am AEDT

Chelsea had the better of their first-leg semi-final defeat to Spurs midweek, but they went down 1-0 after Harry Kane scored form the spot following a VAR decision. They limited Pochettino’s to few chances throughout as their rearguard has improved of late, with just the solitary goal conceded in their previous eight at Stamford Bridge in all competitions.

They’ve generally eased past weaker opponents under Maurizio Sarri, winning 10 of 12 unbeaten matches against current bottom-half teams while keeping eight clean sheets.

Newcastle made a habit of scoring against the top sides in the early part of the season, but that may have been down to a bit of luck and circumstance, rather than their own attacking endeavour. Rafa Benitez sets his sides up to contain when facing teams of quality and now with their attack wavering, it’s difficult to see how they are going to penetrate this Chelsea defence.

Indeed, the Magpies have netted just four goals in their last eight in the league, even allowing Man Utd just their third clean sheet of the season most recently, while their equaliser against Blackburn in a 1-1 draw in the FA Cup came from the penalty spot.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea Win to Nil at 1.91


Spurs vs Man Utd

Jan 14th, 3.30am AEDT

Without being at their best, Spurs managed to overcome Chelsea 1-0 in the first-leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final, as they’ve shown a great apatite to secure all three points regularly this season. They’re yet to share the spoils in the league (W16-L5), while they’ve now won 15 of their last 18 matches in all competitions, with one of the exceptions a stalemate at the Camp Nou. They suffered a shock defeat in their last home league game to Wolves, but the midlands club have caused numerous upsets versus ‘Big Six’ teams this season, and the only other sides to stop Spurs from taking maximum points at Wembley have been Liverpool and Man City, both a cut above Man Utd.

A month ago, we wouldn’t have given Man Utd a chance in this fixture, but the shackles have been released since the departure of Jose Mourinho, and they now look a real threat going forward. They’ve won each of their five matches in all competitions under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, but the highest placed side they’ve faced in this time has been a Bournemouth team (12th) amidst a downward spiral. Following conclusive defeats at Anfield and the Etihad earlier in the season, they’ve still got plenty of convincing to do when facing quality opposition. They may well get on the scoresheet, but Spurs’ attack has also been in scintillating form, and they’re a worthy bet at odds-against.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs Win at 2.1


Man City v Wolves

Jan 15th, 7.00am AEDT

Man City took Burton to the cleaners in the Carabao Cup midweek, backing up a 7-0 victory against Rotherham in the FA Cup last weekend. However, Wolves are sure to be a much sterner test and the visitors won’t offer Guardiola’s men the freedom of the Etihad as the two lower league sides allowed.

Wolves have proven themselves to be effective against the best sides this season, going W3-D2-L2 against the ‘Big Six’ in all competitions, even dumping Liverpool out of the FA Cup last weekend and prevailing 3-1 in their latest trip to Spurs.

Nuno’s 3-4-3 formation is perfectly suited to deny the best sides space through the middle as their wingers drop back to double up on the opposition’s wide men. These tactics were employed to great effect by Leicester and Palace as they inflicted defeats on City either side of Christmas, and in Matt Doherty at full-back on the right-hand side, Wolves have a man who can exploit the hosts weakest area at left-back. While victory may be a little far-fetched, there’s certainly enough reason to back the visitors on the handicap given City’s price.

Indeed, Wolves have not lost by more than two goals this term, while the only sides City have beaten by more than a two-goal margin at home are Southampton, Burnley, Fulham and Huddersfield.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Wolves +2.0 Asian Handicap at 2.03

Man City v Liverpool

Jan 4th, 7.00am AEDT

The biggest match of the season so far sees 2nd host 1st. Despite a seven-point lead at the turn of the year, Liverpool are still ‘just’ $1.70 to lift the Premier League trophy. A win at the Etihad would surely mean the title was heading to Liverpool for the first time in over 10,000 days.

Man City have beaten Liverpool just once in seven games in all competitions under Pep Guardiola as four of the matches have seen Over 2.5 Goals. These two played out one of the worst games of the season at Anfield in October as Riyad Mahrez missed a late penalty to prevent a goalless stalemate. That game was the only match this term that Liverpool have failed to score and, as has been widely advertised, they remain unbeaten at the 20 game stage.

Under Klopp, Liverpool have a very impressive record of W3-D4-L4 travelling to top-four finishers and teams currently in the top-four – both teams have scored in eight of the 11.

This is a must win game for City and winning is what they do best under Pep. They’ve won 75% of their home Premier League matches under the Spaniard including 23 of 32 when conceding. City have scored themselves in all 32 which makes the $1.50 on both teams netting a great option while 59% of their home games when conceding under Pep have had Over 3.5 Goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 3.5 Goals 2.50


Chelsea vs Southampton

Jan 3rd, 6.45am AEDT

Southampton drew a blank in six of their opening 10 matches this season as familiar problems resurfaced, but they’ve now seen both teams find the net in nine of their last 10 matches now. That includes four games at the back end of Mark Hughes’ reign, but they’ve increased their output under Ralph Hasenhuttl and have netted three times against both Arsenal and Huddersfield within their last four – having last put three past someone when facing West Brom back in February.

It’s hardly as though the Saints have just filled their boots against the divisions’ lesser lights either, with half of their 10 most recent outings coming versus ‘Big Six’ opponents. They’ve bagged strikes against City (twice), United, Spurs and Arsenal, so should fancy their chances of making their way onto the scoresheet once more.

Indeed, Chelsea’s great start to the season began to stutter as opponents worked out that you had to harry and hustle Jorginho to stop the summer signing dictating the pace of proceedings, something that Hasenhuttl will undoubtedly instruct his charges to do given his usual high-pressing tactics that have earnt him the nickname of the ‘Alpine Klopp.’

Although we expect the Saints to continue their goal-scoring form, it could take a while to sort out their porous defence. They may have netted eight times across their last four, but they’ve conceded just as many and given Chelsea have netted an average of three per game against bottom-six teams, we’d expect both sides to see the net bulge in this encounter.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Both teams to score at 2.02


Newcastle vs Man Utd

Jan 3rd, 7.00am AEDT

In their last home game, Newcastle were the first side that failed to score against Fulham this season (before Huddersfield quickly became the second!), so we fear their lack of firepower could spell trouble against a rejuvenated Man Utd outfit.

Indeed, the Magpies have only netted seven times at St James’s Park this season, losing seven of their 10 encounters. Furthermore, they’ve lost all six encounters with ‘Big Six’ sides with Rafa Benitez really bemoaning the state of his squad after their 4-0 thrashing at Anfield.

Even an out of sorts United were able to comeback from 2-0 down to beat Newcastle 3-2 in the reverse fixture. They’ve scored in every away game this term and now they’re playing with more attacking freedom, culminating in putting five past Cardiff in their latest trip and a demolition of Bournemouth at home. They’ll be confident of all three points.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man Utd Win at 1.61


Everton vs Leicester

Jan 1st, 11:30am AEDT

These are two of the main candidates to be fighting it out for the accolade of the best of the rest in the Premier League though Wolves’ win at Wembley and Leicester’s defeat to Cardiff have shaken up that race a little. Marco Silva sets his side up to attack and while the quality of Spurs punished them in their last game at Goodison, the Portuguese didn’t change tact by going to Burnley and winning 5-1 just three days later.

In one of many shock results over the festive period, Everton then went down 1-0 at Everton. Leicester left Stamford Bridge with all three points in their last road game and Claude Puel be looking for another smash and grab job here to bounce back from that shocker against Cardiff. Playing better sides favours their counter-attacking strength and so this has all the makings of an entertaining affair.

Excluding the ‘Big Six’, the Toffees hold a mightily impressive W26-D7-L2 home record since 2016/17. They tempt at around the even money mark, but with Leicester’s recent rejuvenation we’ll stick to goals. Indeed, Everton’s only clean sheets at home this season have come against Cardiff, Palace and Fulham as both teams have scored in the remaining seven fixtures.

Both teams to score has also clicked in 71% of the Foxes away matches under Puel, so appears the smart play here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – BTTS – Yes at 1.87


Arsenal vs Fulham

Jan 2nd, 2.00am AEDT

Fulham finally secured their first clean sheet of the season in their last away game but visiting St James’s Park is a very different experience to the Emirates. Prior to their draw with Newcastle, they’d lost eight of nine winless away matches this season, conceding an average of 2.67 goals per game across these.

They’ve already visited five of the remaining ‘Big Six’ teams, losing by an aggregate scoreline of 14-2, as each defeat was by at least a two-goal margin. They were also put to the sword by Arsenal at Craven Cottage in a 5-1 hammering, and so we fear for them here.

Beating weaker opposition at home is what the Gunners do. Excluding their fellow ‘Big Six’ clubs, they’ve won 20 of 21 unbeaten home matches since the start of last season, with the one exception against a decent Wolves outfit. 11 of thee were to nil and 15 were by at least two clear strikes, so the preference is to back Unai Emery’s men on the handicap.

Fulham have had a nice uptick in form, picking up five points from their last three, but a trip to the Emirates could prove a step to far for Ranieri’s side.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Arsenal -1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.83


Cardiff vs Spurs

Jan 2nd, 4.30am AEDT

Cardiff have won four of their last six at home, but they’ve been exposed when the best sides have visited. Their three home defeats to Man Utd, Man City and Arsenal have been by an aggregate scoreline of 13-3 while they’ve also lost 4-1 at both Liverpool and Chelsea.

Although they managed a respectable 1-0 defeat in the reverse fixture with Spurs, Mauricio Pochettino has recently got his charges playing with real confidence. Overall, the Bluebirds have trailed at both half-time and full-time in five of their six meetings with the ‘Big Six’ and that’s the angle we like here.

Mauricio Pochettino is setting his side up to win every match and this has often led to them starting fast, especially on the road where they’ve won seven of their last eight. Even in the one defeat in this run they were ahead at half-time in the North London Derby, as the Spurs/Spurs HT/FT has copped in six of these.

Add to this Pochettino’s incredible record of 11 victories from 13 unbeaten trips to promoted side as Spurs managers, and this should be one-way traffic as the Lilywhites will be desperate to bounce back from their shock defeat to Wolves.

Spurs/Spurs HT/FT at 2.15

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs/Spurs HT/FT at 2.15

Tottenham v Wolves

December 30th, 2.00am AEDT

At the halfway stage of the season Spurs are in second position in the league six points adrift of leaders Liverpool. Bizarrely, the North London outfit are the only team in the division yet to draw a game.

The hosts have bounced back emphatically from their 4-2 derby defeat to Arsenal as they’ve won all five league games since with four wins by at least two goals. Pochettino’s side have been excellent all season as they’ve already racked up 12 W/W doubles.

Wolves will be happy with their return of 26 points from their first half in the top-tier. They are 14 points ahead of the drop-zone and look streets ahead of at least the bottom-six.

In their six games against the ‘Big Six’ Wolves have gone W1-D3-L2 including getting a point at Old Trafford and the Emirates in their only two such games on the road.

While Spurs are in great form they seem a little skinny here. They’ve won ‘just’ 63% of their games hosting middle-third sides under Pochettino with only six victories in 32 by two clear goals. Wolves have lost just four of their 19 so far by at least two goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Wolves +1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.88


Leicester v Cardiff

December 30th, 2.00am AEDT

Leicester go into this game full of confidence after their best result of the season. The Foxes’ come from behind win over champions Man City has meant they’ve leapt to the top of the ‘Best of The Rest’ table and now find themselves just four points behind Man Utd in seventh and this is a fantastic opportunity for more success.

Leicester beat Wolves 2-0 earlier in the season in what was their eighth win in 12 games hosting promoted opposition since they returned to the top-flight in 2014/15. In that spell they’ve faced few teams as poor as Cardiff are on the road.

Neil Warnock’s side picked up just their second point on the road all season at Crystal Palace on Boxing Day. The other came in another 0-0 at Huddersfield in their second away match of the campaign.

Worryingly for the visitors, Leicester have failed to score in just six of 24 home games under Claude Puel and, to reiterate, Cardiff have lost every away game in which they’ve conceded this term.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Leicester to Win at 1.60


Liverpool v Arsenal

December 30th, 4.30am AEDT

The highlight of this round of fixtures sees table-toppers Liverpool host unpredictable Arsenal. Klopp’s boys are in Red hot form as they’ve won all of their last eight in the league and, impressively, all but one of the victories was by two clear goals including a 3-1 demolition of rivals Man Utd at Anfield which put Jose to the sword.

Arsenal’s decline under Arsene Wenger started with their drop out of the Champions League spots. Until 2015/16, they qualified for Europe’s elite competition in every season under the Frenchman however since then they’ve lost all nine away games against teams that finished in, or are currently in, those coveted positions. Just once did they conceded only a single goal as seven of the games featured Over 2.5 Goals.

15 of Liverpool’s last 19 home wins have had Over 2.5 Goals so it’s worth taking a bit of extra risk for the premium on a high-scoring Reds victory.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool to Win and Over 2.5 Goals at 1.95


Crystal Palace v Chelsea

December 30th, 11.00pm AEDT

Two London sides that recently beat champions Man City square off in this festive clash. 11 points from seven games including seven from their last three have navigated Palace to the relative safety of 14th spot in the division.

We expected Roy Hodgson’s boys to finish in the top-half this term and they are well poised to build on their recent upturn in form. Against City they showed what a threat they are on the break against the better teams in the league and Chelsea know that all too well as Palace have had the better of them in two of their four most recent battles. All of the four matches saw both teams score.

Both teams have also scored in all of Chelsea’s last four away games including their 2-1 win at Watford on Boxing Day. That result marked Chelsea’s eighth Over 2.5 Goals game in nine on the road this term.

Over the past couple of seasons eight of Palace’s 12 matches hosting top-six finishers have had Over 2.5 Goals so that looks the best option here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 1.80


Man United v Bournemouth

December 31st, 3.30am AEDT

For a team that were derived as boring for the past three or four seasons it’s incredible that all of Man Utd’s last six games have all featured at least four goals.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer couldn’t have asked for two better games to start his reign than Cardiff away and Huddersfield at home and, with all due respect to Bournemouth, their third is pretty ideal as well.

14 of Bournemouth’s games this season have had Over 2.5 Goals including seven of their nine on the road – the two that went ‘unders’ were a pair of 2-0 defeats. Eddie Howe’s side have lost their three away matches against the ‘Big Six’ this term, scoring just once but letting in 10 goals!

That takes Bournemouth’s away record against top-six finishers or current top-six teams to W1-D3-L17 since they gained promotion to the Premier League and makes the $1.38 on United tempting. Bournemouth have shipped at least three goals themselves in 12 of the 21.

United seem in the holiday spirit with a new lease of life under Solskjaer. We expect them to trouble the scorers at least three times for the third match in a row.

Betting Strategy

 BACK –  Man United Total Over 2.5 Goals at 2.20

Leicester vs Man City

December 27nd, 2.00am AEDT

This is a repeat of the Carabao Cup quarter-final from eight days ago where the visitors progressed on penalties after a 1-1 draw. However, City will be stronger this time around and with the title race well and truly on, Pep Guardiola will be keeping his charges up to speed over the busy festive period. Leicester meanwhile, don’t have the easiest fixture list and they’re unlikely to target this as one of the games to pick up points.

Spurs were the last visitors to the King Power and they simply out-classed the Foxes 2-0 and we can see a similar outcome here. Liverpool also won 2-1 here earlier on in the season and Leicester’s goal came curtesy of a keeper error. They’re W4-D2-L8 hosting ‘Big Six’ sides since 2016/17, conceding at least twice in 10 of these, with five of the defeats by two or more goals. If we exclude trips to fellow ‘Big Six’ teams, then City have won an emphatic 15 of 18 unbeaten away matches since the start of last season, with nine of these victories to nil and nine by at least a two-goal margin.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City -1.5 Asian Handicap at 2.01


Liverpool vs Newcastle

December 27nd, 2.00am AEDT

Man Utd were no match for Liverpool in their last outing at Anfield, as the Reds extended their run here to seven victories from eight unbeaten matches this season. The only exception was a goalless draw with City and usually we wouldn’t give Newcastle a prayer, but given where this fixture lands, there is potential for the visitors to be competitive. Indeed, Liverpool’s two fixtures either side of New Years are Arsenal and Man City, so this is an obvious opportunity for Jurgen Klopp to rest some of his key players. It was a ploy that worked out at Burnley recently as none of Firmino, Salah or Mane started and maybe even the crucial Van Dijk could be rotated.

With this in mind, we’re not so keen on the home win to nil, especially as Newcastle have made a habit of scoring against the ‘Big Six’ this season. They’ve netted in all five fixtures, but they all still ended in defeat, though each was by just a one goal margin. Benitez is pragmatic in his approach, especially on the road, and their only away defeats this term have been at the two Manchester clubs. We imagine Liverpool will do just enough to win here as they prepare for the major clashes either side of New Year.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool to win by 1 goal at 4.5


Man Utd vs Huddersfield

December 27nd, 2.00am AEDT

For almost the first time this season there will be a positive atmosphere around Old Trafford as club legend Ole Gunnar Solskjaer takes charge of his first home game. He couldn’t have asked for a much easier task either with Huddersfield coming to town.

Indeed, the Terriers are one of the poorest travellers in the Premier League and they’re without the influential Aaron Mooy for the whole of the festive period, which seriously harms them going forward. Furthermore, David Wagner’s men have lost their remaining five matches with ‘Big Six’ opposition this term, scoring just once while shipping 13 times.

For all their shortcomings under Mourinho, United have only lost once at home this season and that was against Spurs. Even under his negative tactics, they still scored at least twice in four of their last five here, dismantling a poor Fulham outfit 4-1 in their last appearance at the Theatre of Dreams. So, with the shackles released, we’re backing them to cover the handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man Utd -1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.94


Tottenham vs Bournemouth

December 27nd, 2.00am AEDT

Spurs were almost frustrated by Burnley in their last encounter at Wembley, but a late Eriksen strike ensured they won for the fifth time in seven home matches this season. In fact, the two defeats here came against Man City and Liverpool and excluding those two, Spurs have won 12 consecutive home matches. Eight of these were to nil and seven were by at least two clear goals, and it’s the latter we prefer with this Bournemouth side the latest visitors.

The Cherries have consistently come up short against the ‘Big Six’ over the years as their shaky rearguard has often been exposed, going W3-D4-L17 at all venues in the past two seasons while conceding an average of 2.42 goals per game. This term has been no different as they’ve lost all five encounters, conceding at least twice in each. Furthermore, travelling to such sides since 2016/17, they’ve lost 11 of 14 trips, with nine of these defeats by at least a two-goal margin.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs -1.5 Asian Handicap at 2.07


Brighton vs Arsenal

December 27nd, 4.15am AEDT

Brighton haven only lost six of 27 home matches since their promotion last season, and although five of these came against ‘Big Six’ outfits, the likes of Chelsea, Spurs, Man City and Liverpool all have stronger away records than Arsenal. Indeed, the Gunners came unstuck here last season and they’ve shown enough frailties on the road under Unai Emery to suggest they’re worth taking on at the prices. Defensively, they were all over the shop in their 3-2 defeat at St Mary’s as they’ve conceded in every away match this term and at least twice on five occasions.

They’re W4-D2-L2 overall and only the victory at Fulham was convincing as they were fortunate to leave Cardiff, Newcastle and Bournemouth with all three points. The Seagulls are down in the bottom-half with those teams, but on home form alone, Chris Hughton’s men are top-half material and we can certainly see them causing another upset.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Brighton +0.5 Asian Handicap at 2.40


Watford vs Chelsea

December 27nd, 6.30am AEDT

Watford let Cardiff back into the game when 3-0 up, but before that it was another display of impressive attacking football at home. The only sides they’ve failed to score against at Vicarage Road are Bournemouth (when they went down to 10-men early on), and to the best defence in the league, Liverpool. However, they’ve had their own issues at the back, only shutting out Huddersfield and Brighton so far and with Chelsea coming to town, it has all the making of an entertaining affair.

Indeed, the Blues’ attacking brand of football under Mauriczo Sarri has resulted on seven of their eight away games featuring at least three strikes. Although, Man City, Liverpool and Man Utd have all come here and won, the Hornets did beat Spurs, and with Chelsea losing recently on their travels at Wembley and at Wolves, as well as a 4-1 thrashing here last season, we’re reluctant to back them at the prices. Instead, Over 2.5 Goals looks the best bet. It’s landed in eight of Watford’s nine home matches this term and in 14 of their 16 matches hosting ‘Big Six’ opposition since 2016/17.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 1.75

Wolves vs Liverpool

December 22nd, 7.00am AEDT

Liverpool enhanced their claims for the title with a dominant performance over Man Utd, winning the shot count 36-6, with the concession of a goal the only disappointment. They’ve won 14 of 17 unbeaten matches this season, with the exceptions against Chelsea, Man City and Arsenal as their attack has clicked into gear with 10 strikes across their last three.

After lambasting the organisers 12 months ago, Jurgen Klopp and his side have the most days off during this year’s festive period and we expect a full-strength side for Friday night, with Newcastle on Boxing Day an obvious fixture to rest players with Arsenal and Man City either side of New Year.

Wolves have won their last three to recover well from a spell of poor form, but in truth they were fortunate to beat Chelsea in the first of these as the Blues should have been out of sight by half-time. However, it does mean they’re a very respectable W1-D3-L1 against the Big Six this term, which includes holding Man City 1-1 here at Molineux.

A bit like the Chelsea game, Wolves rode their luck that day but nevertheless they’ve found the net in all five of these encounters. Nuno will have to cope without the in-form Diogo Jota though, who scored twice and set up one during this three-match winning streak, and without the Portuguese in the starting line-up, Wolves have lost four of five winless games this season.

Given the undeniable firepower at their disposal, the Reds should be outgunning their hosts to take maximum points, but with all but one of their 10 clean sheets this term coming against teams below Wolves in the table, the away win and both teams to score is our favoured selection.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool win and both teams to score at 3.38


Arsenal vs Burnley

December 22nd, 11:30pm AEDT

Burnley almost escaped Wembley with a point before Cristian Eriksen’s injury-time winner and they’ll once again head to north London with the game plan to frustrate. It was the sort of resolute performance against on the of the ‘Big Six’ we got used to seeing from Sean Dyche’s side last season, but again the worry will be the lack of chances they’re creating at the other end, even now facing Arsenal’s depleted defence.

The Gunners’ 22-match unbeaten run in all competitions came to an end at St Mary’s, but they return to the comforts of the Emirates where they’ve won 19 of 20 unbeaten matches since the start of last season when excluding ‘Big Six’ opposition.

We don’t think the result is in doubt, so to find some value we’ll back the Draw/Arsenal half-time/full-time result. Incredibly, Unai Emery has yet to hold a half-time team talk with his side in the lead as they’ve gone into the break all-square on 12 occasions. They’ve gone on to win nine of these, with the three exceptions against Chelsea, Liverpool and Man Utd, and as Huddersfield held on until the 83rd minute most recently at the Emirates, the Clarets will surely adopt a similar approach.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Draw/Arsenal HT/FT at 4.0


Chelsea vs Leicester

December 23rd, 2:00am AEDT

Leicester have lost their last two to drop back to 12th, with a lack of goals the current issue as they’ve netted more than once in just one of their last 10 in the league. They were so poor last weekend that they allowed Palace to win without Wilfred Zaha in their side for the first time in over two years.

It was also the third time in a row they’ve trailed 1-0 at half-time, while they even started slowly in their midweek Carabao Cup quarter-final clash with Man City. Although they equalised in the second period, they’re unlikely to get away with any kind of sluggish start at Stamford Bridge.

Indeed, Chelsea have made a habit of fast starts under Maurizio Sarri, leading at the break in nine of their last 11. The only teams the Blues have dropped points against this season are ninth or above in the table as they have a perfect record against bottom-half opponents.

They’ve led at the break in seven of these nine victories, including their last six in a row. The Foxes meanwhile, have lost all four of their meetings with Big Six opponents this term, trailing at half-time in three of these.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea/Chelsea HT/FT at 2.0


Man City vs Palace

December 23rd, 2:00am AEDT

Man City returned to winning ways in the league with a 3-1 success over Everton at home, to stretch their winning streak here this season to nine matches. All bar one of these victories have been by at least a two-goal margin and in their four matches hosting bottom-six teams specifically, they’ve won by an aggregate scoreline of 20-2. In fact, the Citizens have triumphed in 16 of 17 unbeaten matches hosting all bottom-half teams since the start of last, with nine of these by at least a three-goal margin.

In the context of their league position, Palace face a far more important game hosting Cardiff on Boxing Day, so Roy Hodgson may even use this as an opportunity to rotate, especially as the Etihad has not been a happy hunting ground for the Eagles in the past.

Indeed, their last four visits have ended 5-0, 5-0, 4-0 and 3-0, losing seven of the eight halves. With none of the weaker sides being able to frustrate City at home this season, we see nothing but another easy home win.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City -2.5 Asian Handicap at 2.18


Cardiff vs Man Utd

December 23rd, 4:30am AEDT

The 3-1 battering at Anfield was the final straw for Jose Mourinho and his tenure at Old Trafford. Poor results along with a desperate style of play meant the powers that be had to take action halfway through the season rather than wait until the summer. While there is no doubting the attacking talent within the squad, caretaker manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is going to struggle to sort United’s porous defence out.

Despite having one of the best keepers in the world, they’ve kept just two clean sheets all season – versus Palace and Burnley – and as a result, both teams have scored in 14 of their 17 matches with the same number featuring at least three strikes.

Cardiff were involved in a 3-2 thriller with some sensational goals at Vicarage Road last weekend. Having thought they were going to be goal-shy this season, Neil Warnock’s men have proven us wrong, netting in seven of their last nine outings.

At home, they’ve won four of their last five, while six of their last eight here have seen three or more goals. They’ve got licence to have a go here and as a result we should be in for an entertaining affair.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 1.8


Everton vs Spurs

December 24th, 3.00am AEDT

We mentioned before their trip to the Etihad last week that despite the results not always going their way, Everton had been much more competitive against the ‘Big Six’ under Marco Silva than they have been in recent seasons. Had their finishing been more precise then perhaps they would have done better than a 3-1 result, but now for the first time during his spell on Merseyside, Silva gets to take on a ‘Big Six’ team at Goodison. This will be a truer reflection of how far they’ve come under the Portuguese and he’ll want to improve on the Toffees W2-D4-L6 record hosting such opposition over the previous two seasons.

Christian Eriksen’s late winner made it 13 victories from 17 matches for Spurs this season and it is noticeable that Mauricio Pochettino is setting his side up to win games more this season, rather than not lose. In the past they’ve been guilty of drawing too many games but they’re yet to share the spoils this term.

As a result, 10 of their 17 matches have had at least three goals and with key defensive players sidelined – Jan Vertonghen and Eric Dier – this has all the elements of an entertaining encounter. Indeed, without the latter, 11 of the 17 away matches he’s missed since his arrival in 2014/15 have featured three or more strikes.

It was well documented that Spurs’ squad was not added to over the summer, and their depth could well be tested over the busy festive period. This is particularly the case at the back and with plenty of attacking talent amongst the Everton starting XI, ‘overs’ is the way to go.

Indeed, the only side the Toffees have failed to net against in their last 17 here was Liverpool, while Over 2.5 Goals has landed in five of Silva’s seven home matches hosting the ‘Big Six’ as a Premier League manager.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 1.8

Leicester vs Man City

December 27th, 2.00am AEDT

This is a repeat of the Carabao Cup quarter-final from eight days ago where the visitors progressed on penalties after a 1-1 draw. However, City will be stronger this time around and with the title race well and truly on, Pep Guardiola will be keeping his charges up to speed over the busy festive period.

Leicester meanwhile, don’t have the easiest fixture list and they’re unlikely to target this as one of the games to pick up points. Spurs were the last visitors to the King Power and they simply out-classed the Foxes 2-0 and we can see a similar outcome here. Liverpool also won 2-1 here earlier on in the season and Leicester’s goal came curtesy of a keeper error. They’re W4-D2-L8 hosting ‘Big Six’ sides since 2016/17, conceding at least twice in 10 of these, with five of the defeats by two or more goals.

If we exclude trips to fellow ‘Big Six’ teams, then City have won an emphatic 15 of 18 unbeaten away matches since the start of last season, with nine of these victories to nil and nine by at least a two-goal margin.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City -1.5 Asian Handicap at 2.01


Liverpool vs Newcastle

December 27th, 2.00am AEDT

Man Utd were no match for Liverpool in their last outing at Anfield, as the Reds extended their run here to seven victories from eight unbeaten matches this season. The only exception was a goalless draw with City and usually we wouldn’t give Newcastle a prayer, but given where this fixture lands, there is potential for the visitors to be competitive.

Indeed, Liverpool’s two fixtures either side of New Years are Arsenal and Man City, so this is an obvious opportunity for Jurgen Klopp to rest some of his key players. It was a ploy that worked out at Burnley recently as none of Firmino, Salah or Mane started and maybe even the crucial Van Dijk could be rotated.

With this in mind, we’re not so keen on the home win to nil, especially as Newcastle have made a habit of scoring against the ‘Big Six’ this season. They’ve netted in all five fixtures, but they all still ended in defeat, though each was by just a one goal margin.

Benitez is pragmatic in his approach, especially on the road, and their only away defeats this term have been at the two Manchester clubs. We imagine Liverpool will do just enough to win here as they prepare for the major clashes either side of New Year.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool to win by 1 goal at 4.5


Man Utd v Huddersfield

December 27th, 2.00am AEDT

For almost the first time this season there will be a positive atmosphere around Old Trafford as club legend Ole Gunnar Solskjaer takes charge of his first home game. He couldn’t have asked for a much easier task either with Huddersfield coming to town.

Indeed, the Terriers are one of the poorest travellers in the Premier League and they’re without the influential Aaron Mooy for the whole of the festive period, which seriously harms them going forward. Furthermore, David Wagner’s men have lost their remaining five matches with ‘Big Six’ opposition this term, scoring just once while shipping 13 times.

For all their shortcomings under Mourinho, United have only lost once at home this season and that was against Spurs. Even under his negative tactics, they still scored at least twice in four of their last five here, dismantling a poor Fulham outfit 4-1 in their last appearance at the Theatre of Dreams. So, with the shackles released, we’re backing them to cover the handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man Utd -1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.94


Spurs vs Bournemouth

December 27th, 2.00am AEDT

Spurs were almost frustrated by Burnley in their last encounter at Wembley, but a late Eriksen strike ensured they won for the fifth time in seven home matches this season. In fact, the two defeats here came against Man City and Liverpool and excluding those two, Spurs have won 12 consecutive home matches. Eight of these were to nil and seven were by at least two clear goals, and it’s the latter we prefer with this Bournemouth side the latest visitors.

The Cherries have consistently come up short against the ‘Big Six’ over the years as their shaky rearguard has often been exposed, going W3-D4-L17 at all venues in the past two seasons while conceding an average of 2.42 goals per game.

This term has been no different as they’ve lost all five encounters, conceding at least twice in each. Furthermore, travelling to such sides since 2016/17, they’ve lost 11 of 14 trips, with nine of these defeats by at least a two-goal margin.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs -1.5 Asian Handicap at 2.07


Brighton vs Arsenal

December 27th, 2.00am AEDT

Brighton haven only lost six of 27 home matches since their promotion last season, and although five of these came against ‘Big Six’ outfits, the likes of Chelsea, Spurs, Man City and Liverpool all have stronger away records than Arsenal. Indeed, the Gunners came unstuck here last season and they’ve shown enough frailties on the road under Unai Emery to suggest they’re worth taking on at the prices.

Defensively, they were all over the shop in their 3-2 defeat at St Mary’s as they’ve conceded in every away match this term and at least twice on five occasions. They’re W4-D2-L2 overall and only the victory at Fulham was convincing as they were fortunate to leave Cardiff, Newcastle and Bournemouth with all three points.

The Seagulls are down in the bottom-half with those teams, but on home form alone, Chris Hughton’s men are top-half material and we can certainly see them causing another upset.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Brighton +0.5 Asian Handicap at 2.40


Watford vs Chelsea

December 27th, 6.30am AEDT

Watford let Cardiff back into the game when 3-0 up, but before that it was another display of impressive attacking football at home. The only sides they’ve failed to score against at Vicarage Road are Bournemouth (when they went down to 10-men early on), and to the best defence in the league, Liverpool. However, they’ve had their own issues at the back, only shutting out Huddersfield and Brighton so far and with Chelsea coming to town, it has all the making of an entertaining affair.

Indeed, the Blues’ attacking brand of football under Mauriczo Sarri has resulted on seven of their eight away games featuring at least three strikes. Although, Man City, Liverpool and Man Utd have all come here and won, the Hornets did beat Spurs, and with Chelsea losing recently on their travels at Wembley and at Wolves, as well as a 4-1 thrashing here last season, we’re reluctant to back them at the prices.

Instead, Over 2.5 Goals looks the best bet. It’s landed in eight of Watford’s nine home matches this term and in 14 of their 16 matches hosting ‘Big Six’ opposition since 2016/17.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 1.75

Man City v Everton

December 15th, 11.30am AEDT

Man City bounced straight back from their 2-0 defeat at Stamford Bridge with victory over Hoffenheim to secure top spot in their Champions League group. However, it wasn’t plain sailing as they had to come from behind to win 2-1 and now Pep Guardiola has a few more injury concerns.

They’d managed without the likes of Sergio Aguero and Kevin de Bruyne in recent weeks until they came undone at Chelsea, and although the former could return, David Silva and John Stones have joined de Bruyne in the physio room while Fernandinho is a doubt.

Arguably, no one has been more influential in the club’s recent rise to the top than Silva. Since 2013/14, the Citizens have scored 15% fewer goals when he’s not started, while their win ratio drops from 70% to 59% without him over the same period.

We’re not suggesting Everton are going to come away with all three points, but it looks a good opportunity to side with them on the handicap.

They’ve been steadily improving under Marco Silva and although they’re winless in three, that could have been a different story had Gylfi Sigurdsson stuck his penalty away on Monday night against Watford. On the face of it, a W1-D3-L3 away record this season doesn’t look great, but all seven trips have been to teams in the top half.

Only one of the defeats has been by more than one goal – a 2-0 loss at the Emirates where they had the better of the chances – as they’ve put up bold efforts at Anfield and Stamford Bridge. They held Chelsea to a goalless draw and would have done the same in the Merseyside Derby if it wasn’t for Jordan Pickford’s bizarre incident in injury-time.

This is major improvement on their past trips to the best teams and we think the Toffees can keep it respectable. Indeed, for all their dominance, the only teams City have beaten by more than two goal this term are all in the bottom-half.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Everton +2.0 Asian Handicap at 1.91


Tottenham v Burnley

December 16th, 2.00am AEDT

Spurs return from Barcelona having achieved their mission of qualification from the group stages of the Champions League. Their only defeats in their last 18 in all competitions have been against Arsenal, Man City and hosting Barca, as they’ve won 12 of the remaining 15, with the draws at PSV and the Camp Nou in the Champions League and against Watford at Stadium MK in the Carabao Cup.

We’re wary of tired legs but Burnley aren’t the side to take advantage and we feel Mauricio Pochettino is more likely to give Harry Kane and co a rest in the Carabao Cup midweek rather than this fixture.

The Clarets produced a display more akin with their form last season with a gritty 1-0 victory over Brighton. However, the Seagulls are notoriously poor travellers and Sean Dyche’s men are still yet to win the shot count this season, and that has been especially costly against the better sides.

In their four fixtures with the Big Six outfits this term, they’ve lost by an aggregate scoreline of 14-1, with each defeat by at least a two-goal margin. Spurs have a fantastic record of 33 victories from 41 matches against bottom-six sides since 2015/16, with 24 of these by at least two clear goals. At home, it’s 17 victories from 20, with 13 by two or more strikes and eight by three or more.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs -2.0 Asian Handicap at 1.93


Fulham v West Ham

December 16th, 4.30am AEDT

After an encouraging start to life under Claudio Ranieri with four points hosting Southampton and Leicester and a decent showing in defeat at Chelsea, Fulham took a backwards step as the first side to make Man Utd look like a decent outfit in a while.

It was another defensive car crash of a performance as they’ve now conceded eight more goals than any other side in the league. They’re still without a clean sheet and are averaging 2.5 goals a game against them, so it looks the wrong time to be taking on an in-form Hammers side.

Three consecutive victories, where they’ve netted three time in each, means West Ham lie just five points off sixth place. Manuel Pellegrini has managed to get his talented squad playing some great football and even with the likes of Marko Arnautovic and Andriy Yarmolenko injured, Chicharito, and in particular, Felipe Anderson have taken up the mantel.

With only two clean sheets themselves, this has goals written all over it. Indeed, 17 of the Hammers 26 road games since the start of last season have had at least three strikes, while Fulham have shown the ability to get on the scoresheet themselves, resulting in 10 of their last 15 also going over this line.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 1.69


Brighton v Chelsea

December 17th, 12.30am AEDT

Brighton’s record of only five defeats from 26 home matches is respectable in anyone’s book, but it’s noticeable that four of these came against teams of real quality – City, Liverpool, Chelsea, and Spurs.

For as plucky as they can be under Chris Hughton, during their time in the Premier League they’ve gone W0-D1-L10 when facing the current top four, with eight of those defeats by a two-goal margin.

Having just downed the champions least weekend, it seems the wrong time for the Seagulls to be taking on a Chelsea side that will now be full of confidence.

Maurizio Sarri has the option to rest players in their midweek assignment away in Hungary as they’ve already safely qualified. They may have lost their last two on the road, but Spurs are in a great spell of form while Wolves shouldn’t be sniffed at having also taken points off the likes of City, United, Arsenal and Everton this season.

Against weaker opponents, the Blues have taken no prisoners, winning seven of eight unbeaten matches against bottom-half teams. Six of these victories were by at least a two-goal margin and with Shane Duffy suspended for the hosts, back the Blues to cover the handicap again.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea -1.5 Asian Handicap at 2.34


Southampton v Arsenal

December 17th, 12.30am AEDT

It was a losing start for Ralph Hasenhuttl as his side went down 1-0 at Cardiff in a dour game. It was yet another defensive mistake that cost them and it’s clear the Austrian has a lot to work on to sure them up at the back. Despite having a full week with his new troops, it might not be enough time to deal with this deadly Gunners attack.

Only Man City have outscored Unai Emery’s men this season and on the road, they’ve been particularly effective by netting at least twice in all seven games. In fact, both teams have scored in each as all seven have had at least three strikes, with five featuring four or more.

Further, the Saints have looks particularly suspect against the Big Six this term, shipping 17 goals in five such matches, with Over 2.5 Goals landing in each.

However, we’re reluctant to back Arsenal outright as they’ve shared the spoils in two of their last three on the road. Emery also has a selection (or lack of) headache at the back with Rob Holding out for the season and recent centre-back pairing Sokratis and Shkodran Mustafi both suspended.

Without the German, they’re just W5-D3-L5 since the start of last season and 10 of these had three or more strikes. Although Nacho Monreal and Laurent Koscielny are returning form lay-offs, both will be short of match fitness.

The Saints have proven they can score against the better teams, with goals against Spurs and the two Manchester clubs recently, so ‘overs’ looks banker material in this one.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 1.67


Liverpool v Man Utd

December 17th, 3.00am AEDT

After results last weekend, Liverpool are back at the top of the Premier League for the first time since September. They host fierce rivals Man Utd, and like Man City did when dominating United in the Manchester Derby a few weeks back, the challenge for Liverpool is to see whether they can replicate this.

Even though the Red Devils’ first victory in five in the league finished 4-1 in their favour, it’s nothing to get too excited about as it came against basement-dwellers Fulham. Midweek, they reverted to type, conceding early at Valencia and being dominated for the majority of the game before rallying late on.

Starting games poorly has been such a real feature of United’s play this season, that they’ve only scored first in three of their last 15 in all competitions. Specifically in the league, they’ve conceded first in nine of their 16 outings and although they’ve gone on to lose just four of these, they’re unlikely to get away with it at Anfield.

Indeed, one of Liverpool’s great strengths has been holding onto leads this season and they’ve done the half-time/full-time double in five of their seven matches at home, while that improves to 10 of their last 13 here going back into last term.

Much of Liverpool’s improvement has been down to their defence, with Virgil Van Dijk and Allison making all the difference. Since the Dutchman arrived, they’ve kept 11 clean sheets in his 14 home matches and even though Dejan Lovren has to be drafted in with injuries to Joe Gomez and Joel Matip, we’re not worried as long as he has Van Dijk by his side.

Mourinho has managed a pair of 0-0 draws in his two trips here as United manager, but the gulf between the two teams is ever-widening and we expect Klopp’s charges to put in a dominant display.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool HT/FT at 2.45

Bournemouth v Liverpool

December 8th, 11.30pm AEDT

Jurgen Klopp opted to not start any of his attacking trio of Sadio Mane, Roberto Firmino and Mo Salah for the first time since May 2017 in their midweek fixture with Burnley. That gamble paid off thanks to some fortune and with a 3-1 victory to add to their already 11 wins from 14 unbeaten matches. Meanwhile, Bournemouth started the season with a very respectable six wins from their opening 10 matches and although they followed that with four straight losses, they managed to end that winless run when hosting Huddersfield last time out. Indeed, those four defeats don’t look quite as bad when considering two of them were narrow 2-1 losses at Dean Court to Arsenal and Man Utd, while a 3-1 defeat at the Etihad is nothing to be ashamed of.

Eddie Howe’s men look vulnerable here when looking at their record against the elite teams. They’ve lost 31 of 40 matches against the ‘Big Six’ during their time in the Premier League, including 15 of 20 on home turf, so once again we see them falling short. They did manage to net in 13 of these home matches, whilst both sides have netted in six of their last seven here against all sides. Five of the Reds’ six goals conceded this term have come on the road, and with Callum Wilson in red hot form for the hosts, we like the Liverpool win and both teams to score.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool & BTTS at 3.04


Arsenal v Huddersfield

December 9th, 2.00am AEDT

Arsenal were unable to back up their impressive performance in the North London Derby with a victory at Old Trafford, but a point wasn’t a bad result. Back in the comforts of the Emirates and against weaker opposition, this should be a routine victory for Unai Emery’s men. Indeed, they’ve won 18 of 19 unbeaten matches here since the start of last season when excluding the ‘Big Six’, with 14 of these by at least a two-goal margin.

Huddersfield have certainly improved to go W2-D1-L2 in their last five, but the fixture list has been kind with none of the opposition a top side. They’ve lost their four matches this term against top-five opposition by an aggregate of 12-1, and since their promotion it’s 12 losses in 14. They failed to score in nine of these defeats while nine where also by a two-goal margin and six by three or more. Given the Gunners have kept just two cleans sheets this term, we’ll side with them on the handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Arsenal -1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.86


Cardiff v Southampton

December 9th, 2.00am AEDT

Ralph Hasenhuttl takes over for his first game in charge at Southampton and it’s a massive one against relegation rivals Cardiff. It’s no easy task either as Neil Warnock’s men have won three of their last four at home. Having looked short-changed up front in the early part of the season, the Bluebirds have improved drastically, netting eight times across these three victories. However, they’re without a clean sheet in 12 and their only two shut outs this season where when both Huddersfield and Newcastle were reduced to 10-men.

Hasenhuttl led RB Leipzig to finishes of 2nd and 6th in the Bundesliga in his last managerial stint, but he faces a very different task with the struggling Saints. He has a reputation for high pressing football and as a result 63% of his matches in charge at Leipzig saw at least three goals. However, it’s Southampton’s defence that really needs work on the training ground after another dismal display at Wembley. They’ve conceded at least twice in 10 of their 15 matches this term, but going the other way, the Austrian has something to work with as the Saints have recently netted twice against Fulham, twice against United and although they lost 3-1 at Spurs, Hugo Lloris was awarded man of the match. As a result, both teams have score in their last five which looks the way to go in this one.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Both teams to score at 1.85


Man Utd v Fulham

December 9th, 2.00am AEDT

Man Utd’s winless run stretched to four games and although they were expected to lose to Man City and a point against Arsenal was a decent result, the two draws with Palace and Southampton would put us off adding them to any accas this weekend. The atmosphere has been particularly toxic at Old Trafford and although Fulham have lost seven of eight winless away matches this season, there is reason to be cheerful for the London club.

Improvements have been made under Claudio Ranieri as they’ve picked up four points form two home games, while their defeat at Stamford Bridge was a spirited display. The five goals they’ve conceded under ‘The Tinkerman’ is actually an improvement from before, highlighting just how defensively poor they have been as Barnsley back in 1997/98 are the only team to have shipped more goals at this stage of a Premier League season. The Cottagers certainly have the capabilities to hurt United going the other way though, especially with the Red Devils keeping just two cleans so far this term.

Mourinho’s charges had a hard game against Arsenal on Wednesday night and although we’re tempted to throw a dart at Fulham after Palace came here last week and had the better of the 0-0 draw, we’re slightly reluctant given their defensive issues. So instead, we’ll go for a more conservative play of Fulham +1.0 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Fulham +1.0 Asian Handicap at 2.8


Chelsea v Man City

December 9th, 4.30am AEDT

Chelsea have started to encounter major tactical problems as N’Golo Kante continues to struggle out of position, while teams have worked out an effective means of curtailing the influence of Jorginho with the high press installed most vigorously by Spurs. Aside from a Carabao Cup win and a league stalemate with Liverpool over the space of four days back in September, the Blues have found life tough against the better teams. In addition to being downed by Spurs, they were fortunate to walk away with a point when Man Utd came to town, while an early season victory over Arsenal could have been much different if not for the Gunners’ profligacy on that occasion.

City demonstrated their superiority by doing the double over Chelsea last term and brushed them aside in the Community Shield back in August, while they’ve now gone W11-D1-L2 against fellow ‘Big Six’ outfits since the start of last season in the Premier League. They’ve now won 14 of 16 unbeaten matches across all competitions since they last tasted defeat, netting an average of over three goals per game, and should have too much for a Chelsea side that are just W2-D1-L2 over their last five – with the two victories coming at home to Greek outfit PAOK and rock-bottom Fulham.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City to win at 1.94


Leicester v Tottenham

December 9th, 6.45am AEDT

Spurs got themselves back to winning ways on Wednesday night after going down 4-2 to Arsenal in the North London derby last weekend. That means they have now won seven of their last eight games in all competitions, including victories over big guns Chelsea and Inter. Leicester on the other hand, have won only two of their last nine games in all competitions and although they remain unbeaten across the last seven of these, they still lost their only two games when taking on top-eight opposition – Arsenal and Everton – while they failed to beat both the bottom two sides. Indeed, against those top-eight teams they have lost each of their five matches this term while against the ‘Big Six’ alone they have lost 14 of their last 18 since April 2017, winning only twice.

Mauricio Pochettino’s men will already have an eye on their must-win Champions League match at the Nou Camp on Tuesday and so he may opt to rotate a few players. However, that shouldn’t affect their performance too much as they seem to always get the job done against weaker opposition. Indeed, if we exclude fixtures with their top-five clubs, they’ve won 10 of 11 matches this term, so look a decent price in the outright.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs Win at 1.97

Watford v Man City

December 5th, 7.00am AEDT

It’s now 13 wins from 15 unbeaten matches for City since their opening day defeat in the Champions League, where they’ve won by at least two clear goals in 11 and by at least three goals in seven. In fact, they’ve scored an average of four per game across their last six, winning by at least a four-goal margin in half of these as they’ve really ramped up their production in the final third.

The wheels have come off for Watford of late with their only victories in their last 10 league matches coming against Huddersfield and Wolves. They’ve been particularly disappointing in their encounters with top-half sides, losing 4-0, 3-0 and 2-0 to Bournemouth, Liverpool and Leicester in their last three such fixtures. They’ve also been dreadful when facing ‘Big Six’ teams, losing seven of their last eight, while their last 12 hosting those outfits have seen them concede four times on four occasions. Unsurprisingly, two of those were inflicted by City themselves as they’ve won 5-0 and 6-0 in the last two seasons at Vicarage Road, and in fact Guardiola has masterminded a 16-1 aggregate score in four clashes with Watford home or away since he arrived on these shores.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City -2.0 Asian Handicap at 2.53


Burnley v Liverpool

December 6th, 6.45am AEDT

Burnley’s winless streak stretched to seven games with a dismal display at Selhurst Park. It was their fifth defeat in this run as they’re really struggling at both ends of the pitch this term. Indeed, they’ve been outshot by every opponent they’ve faced so far, and while that is expected against the elite teams, even those around them are out-gunning them.

They lost the shot-count 20-3 to Cardiff, 18-6 to Huddersfield, 22-6 to West Ham and 29-4 most recently to Palace. So, these are worrying times for Sean Dyche with Liverpool coming to town, especially with City and Chelsea hammering them 5-0 and 4-0 respectively during this winless run.

The Merseyside derby provided late drama and Liverpool were lucky to escape with all three points. However, they got over the line and the result means they’ve won all 11 matches this season when excluding fellow top-four sides.

Six of these were by at least two clear goals and eight were to nil and with the Reds’ defence impressing more than their attack this term, we’ll side with the latter here. Indeed, Burnley have lost without scoring in all three encounters with ‘Big Six’ sides this term, and in seven of their last 10 hosting such opponents.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool to Win to Nil at $2


Everton v Newcastle

December 6th, 6.45am AEDT

Jordan Pickford won’t look back on the Merseyside derby with any fondness, but Marco Silva can take pride in his teams’ performance overall and they deserved more for their efforts. They should continue their push for a top-six finish here and in their last eight, the only times they’ve failed to win have been in their three trips to traditional ‘Big Six’ outfits.

At Goodison, they’ve had much easier fixtures, winning five of seven as they all came against bottom-half teams. They’ve now won 21 of 27 such encounters since 2016/17, with 12 of these to nil and 14 by at least two clear goals.

Newcastle were thoroughly outclassed by West Ham, with their three-match winning streak prior perhaps a false dawn. Indeed, they were a tad fortunate to defeat both Watford and Bournemouth at home, while their away success is a greater reflection of how poor Burnley are.

They’ve only managed dull goalless draws at the likes of Southampton, Palace and Cardiff and without one of their best attackers, Matt Ritchie, they could struggle here. Indeed, since the start of last season, they’ve lost six of seven winless games without the Scot, netting just four times.

Whereas they were slightly frantic in the first part of the season, Marco Silva’s side are starting to look a lot more settled and organised. The Barcelona trio are starting to prove their worth with Andre Gomes ruling the midfield, while Lucas Digne and Yerry Mina have improved them immensely at the back.

The latter in particularly has had a major impact as the freak goal they conceded at Anfield is the first in the three matches where he’s been involved. With this in mind, the home win to nil looks the best bet.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Everton to Win to Nil at $2.55


Wolves v Chelsea

December 6th, 6.45am AEDT

After an encouraging 1-1 draw at the Emirates, Wolves have since suffered a couple of damaging defeats against Huddersfield and Cardiff. That point at Arsenal is their only one in their last six, which is in stark contrast to their first eight games where they amassed 15 points.

They even held Man City at Molineux during that period, but their struggles of late has seen them strike just four times in their last six and ship 11 goals.

To make matters worse, their playmaker and midfield general Ruben Neves is suspended, and he’s played every minute for them this term, completing nearly 100 more passes than any other teammate.

Despite not being the most convincing, Chelsea got back to winning ways with a 2-0 victory over Fulham. They’ve proven very efficient against weaker sides under Mauricio Sarri, winning seven of eight unbeaten matches against bottom-half teams this season, with six of these successes by at least a two-goal margin.

Furthermore, the Blues have gone W11-D2-L1 against promoted teams since 2016/17, and look excellent value for all three points.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea to Win at $1.80


Man Utd v Arsenal

December 6th, 7.00am AEDT

United are facing a terrible injury crisis at the back and it remains to be seen who starts. They’ll definitely be without their most impressive defender this term in Victor Lindelof, while they went with a defensive back five featuring Scott McTominay and Nemanja Matic alongside Phil Jones in their 2-2 draw with the Saints.

Meanwhile, the Gunners can take their unbeaten streak to 20 games should they avoid defeat here, with their latest 4-2 victory over Spurs adding to the sense that they’re ready to be competitive against fellow ‘Big Six’ outfits after registering a stalemate with Liverpool at the beginning of November.

United have actually achieved more victories on the road than at Old Trafford in all competitions this season as the toxic atmosphere at the club grows by the day. They’ve actually failed to find the net in four of their last nine in front of their own fans and given their current defensive issues, they’ll need to address that to stand a chance here with the Gunners in fine fettle going forwards.

They’ve scored an average of 2.7 goals per game on the road in the league this term, with Aaron Ramsey, Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang all linking well – especially once Unai Emery switched to a 3-4-1-2 in the second half against Spurs as the trio made runs to stretch their opponent’s backline.

United’s rearguard doesn’t look equipped to cope with such movement at present and the Gunners look well placed to record a first victory at Old Trafford in over a decade.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Arsenal 0 Asian Handicap at $2.22


Tottenham v Southampton

December 6th, 7.00am AEDT

It was a rollercoaster week for Spurs after the double high of defeating Chelsea and Inter at Wembley, followed by a stinging loss in a chaotic North London Derby.

Still, their only defeats in their last 15 in all competitions have been against Arsenal, Man City and Barcelona, as they’ve won 10 of the remaining 12 with the draws at PSV in the Champions League and against Watford at Stadium MK in the Carabao Cup.

They have a fantastic record of 32 victories from 40 matches against bottom-six sides since 2015/16, with 23 of these by at least two clear goals, while they won all 17 on home turf. Jan Vertonghen is suspended, but we’re not overly concerned with the Saints coming to town and Toby Alderweireld, who was controversially left out in the North London Derby, should slot straight in.

Southampton have had their fair share of turbulence after Mark Hughes was sacked in the aftermath of their 2-2 draw with Man Utd, with former keeper Kelvin Davis taking over on a temporary basis.

After just three victories in 22 matches the outcome was inevitable for Sparky, and while we expect an improvement down the line, it’s a lot to ask for Davies to get a result here.

He has had little time to fix the defensive issues that has seen them concede at least twice in nine of their last 13.

Furthermore, the Saints have lost by a combined score of 12-1 form three encounters with top-five sides this term and travelling to the same opposition since the start of last season, they’ve lost all seven trips.

One of their most influential players Mario Lamina is suspended while Danny Ings faces a late fitness test, so in all honesty, the rebuilding phase starts on Saturday at Cardiff rather than at Wembley on Wednesday night.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs -1.5 Asian Handicap at $2.13

Man City v Bournemouth

December 2nd, 2.00am AEDT

Bournemouth’s momentum has been stalled as they’ve lost their last three 2-1. Two of these were hosting ‘Big Six’ opposition, Arsenal and Man Utd, while they’ve also lost to Chelsea this campaign, meaning they’ve lost 13 of their 15 matches against the ‘Big Six’ since the start of last season.

While the Cherries play some attractive football under Eddie Howe, their style often leads to ample opportunities for their superior opposition, something they’ve particularly struggled with in trips to the Etihad. Since their promotion, they’ve lost by an aggregate score of 13-1 in their three trips here, losing all six halves in this time.

Man City may have been held 2-2 by Lyon midweek, but there’s been no stopping them at home domestically. They’ve brushed aside all seven opponents with ease, as six victories were by at least two clear goals, and their relentless attitude under Pep Guardiola has meant they’ve won every half bar one.

That was against a defence-minded Newcastle but shutting up shop is not Bournemouth’s style. Therefore, we fancy City to win both halves, as has been the case in 13 of their last 18 at home.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City to Win Both Halves at 1.85


Newcastle v West Ham

December 2nd, 2.00am AEDT

Having gone winless in their first 10, Newcastle have found their feet and made it three victories in a row with a 2-1 triumph at Burnley. Half of their first 10 matches were defeats to ‘Big Six’ sides, with each by just a single goal margin, so Rafa Benitez’s men are enjoying a spell against easier opposition.

Still, they beat top-half teams Bournemouth and Watford in their last two at St James’ Park, and confidence will be high as they welcome a brittle Hammers side.

West Ham are now below Newcastle in the table, with a leaky defence often costing them. They’ve kept just one clean sheet this term, but none on the road as they’re W1-D2-L3 on their travels. They’ve managed just one point in their two trips to bottom-half outfits Brighton and Huddersfield and visiting such sides since the start of last term, they’re a mediocre W2-D4-L5.

To make matters worse, the talismanic Marko Arnautovic unlikely to be fit for this encounter after hobbling off against Man City in the dying minutes.

The Austrian is their main goal threat and without him starting, the Hammers are just W2-D6-L4 since the start of last season (winless from seven on the road) as they’ve averaged 0.92 goals per game compared to 1.31 gpg in the 39 he’s started.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Newcastle 0 Asian Handicap at $1.80


Southhampton v Man Utd

December 2nd, 4.30am AEDT

Although Man Utd have had their troubles, there is still quality within their squad and they’re a tempting price to beat a woeful Southampton side. It won’t be long until Mark Hughes is out of a job if their poor form continues, with their sole success this season coming against a Palace side bereft of their talisman Wilfred Zaha.

However, there were major issues on the south coast long before Sparky’s arrival, as they’ve won just four matches this calendar year. Having said that, they’ve lost all six encounters with ‘Big Six’ outfits under Hughes, with the three such games this term yielding a combined score of 12-1.

Man Utd have actually won more times on the road than they have at home this season, as the pressure to perform isn’t as intense away form the Theatre of Dreams. They’ve netted 15 times on their way to winning five of their last eight in all competitions, with two of the exceptions at Man City and Chelsea.

They’ve gone to the likes of Watford and Bournemouth, far more impressive teams than Southampton, and even picked up three away at Juve. At the prices, we’re happy to side with the Red Devils.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man Utd to Win at $1.87


Chelsea v Fulham

December 2nd, 11.00pm AEDT

Chelsea host Fulham in the first south-west London derby since 2013/14, but in the past it’s a fixture the Blues have dominated. Mauricio Sarri’s men were humbled at Wembley by Spurs, highlighting that they’re top four contenders rather than title challengers.

However, they’ve mainly slipped up against better teams this term rather than weaker outfits, as they’ve won six of seven unbeaten matches against bottom-half opposition. The two victories in this spread to take place at Stamford Bridge still saw the Blues concede against Palace and Cardiff, so we fancy a rejuvenated Fulham to trouble the scorers.

‘Dilly-ding, Dilly-dong’, Claudio Ranieri made and immediate impact at Fulham, ending their six-match losing streak with victory over Southampton. Aleksandar Mitrovic and Ryan Sessegnon looked reinvigorated in attack, but they still conceded twice to a sorry Saints side, so there are major issues at the back for the Italian to iron out.

Indeed, they’re still without a clean sheet, shipping at least twice in 11 of their 13 encounters and Chelsea’s firepower should prove to strong, making a home win and both teams to score an appealing bet.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea Win and BTTS at $2.50


Arsenal v Tottenham

December 3rd, 1.05am AEDT

Spurs extended their winning streak in all competitions to six matches with a crucial victory over Inter Milan in the Champions League.

Their only defeats this season have been against Liverpool, Barcelona and Man City at home, as well as Watford and Inter away, while they recently humbled the previously unbeaten Chelsea at Wembley.

However, it is important to remember the Gunners’ own 17-game unbeaten run in all competitions prior to their Europa League clash, so the two sides are unsurprisingly difficult to split in the market.

Spurs have won seven of their eight away games, but none of these have been to fellow ‘Big Six’ teams and under Mauricio Pochettino they have a modest W3-D7-L11 record at such sides. However, three of the four trips to the Emirates have finished all-square, whereas they’d lost 12 of their previous 15 visits, highlighting the closing gap and even surpassing their north London rivals.

Indeed, they’ve finished above the Gunners in the past two seasons, while they were just one point behind them the year before.

While Unai Emery will have been pleased to maintain that unbeaten spell, they’ve certainly slowed down with four stalemates from their last six prior to a trip to Ukrainians Vorskla Poltava.

Under the Spaniard, they lost their opening two fixtures of the campaign against Man City and Chelsea, but it was obvious during those encounters that the Gunners were very much still adapting to his methods at that point, with Petr Cech cutting an uncomfortable figure on the ball as the Spaniard instructed his charges to play out from the back.

Since then, summer signing Bernd Leno has usurped the veteran between the sticks, and they’ve only faced one other ‘Big Six’ test as they had the better of their 1-1 draw hosting Liverpool. With these to two so evenly matched, the draw is the standout selection again.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Draw at $3.57


Liverpool v Everton

December 3rd, 3.15am AEDT

Jurgen Klopp will be looking for a reaction from his players in the Merseyside Derby following their disappointing result in Paris midweek.

It’s a fixture the red half of Merseyside have had the better of for a while now, last losing back in 2010/11. However, nine of the 15 encounters since then have finished all-square, including half of the eight to take place at Anfield.

Everton will be seeking to capitalize come Sunday having had the luxury of a week off to prepare for the derby. Despite Marco Silva’s reputation for an attacking brand of football, only the current top four can boast a better defensive record than Everton.

They’ve achieved clean sheets in their last two fixtures, which included a trip to Stamford Bridge, while their form has taken an upwards curve following a patchy spell in September. They’re W4-D1-L1 over their last six, with the draw against Chelsea and the defeat a narrow 2-1 loss at Old Trafford.

Although Liverpool are unbeaten in the league, they look too short to us at 1.4. While their defence deserve plenty of plaudits, with five clean sheets form six home fixtures this term, five of these have been against clubs 12th or below.

A goalless draw hosting Man City in the other fixture was a decent result but over the last two seasons, they were W9-D9-L0 hosting top-half teams with just five of these victories by more than one goal. Take out ‘Big Six’ opposition and it’s only four victories from eight unbeaten matches.

The Toffees are currently up in sixth and definitely look the best of the rest in the division, but given how rarely they win here, we’ll side with them on the handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Everton +1.25 Asian Handicap at $2.09

Man Utd v Crystal Palace

November 25th, 2.00am AEDT

Man Utd were put in their place in the Manchester Derby, but they face a much easier task here. Palace have lost eight of their last 11 and are just W1-D2-L12 when facing ‘Big Six’ teams since Roy Hodgson took charge.

Each of those positive results came at Selhurst Park as they lost their six such road trips by a combined score of 19-3. Furthermore, they have a host of key injuries with none more important than the absence of Wilfred Zaha. They’ve lost an incredible 14 on the bounce without the Ivorian, failing to score on 11 occasions.

Jose Mourinho has his share of injuries as well with Paul Pogba out, while Romelu Lukaku and Marcus Rashford are doubts. However, the in-form Anthony Martial is fit and so they should have too much quality.

As the Eagles are without their talisman, it’s the perfect opportunity for the Red Devils to keep what’s been a rare clean sheet this season. Indeed, United are W14-D3-L1 hosting teams outside the top six since the start of last season, with 10 of these victories to nil.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man Utd Win to Nil at 2.3


Watford v Liverpool

November 25th, 2.00am AEDT

Jurgen Klopp will be happy that the international break hasn’t been quite so detrimental to his squad this time around as only Jordan Henderson poses a slight injury concern.

They’ve won nine of 12 unbeaten matches this term, with those three draws against Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea, but this is far from a straight forward fixture. Firstly, Watford are enjoying a stellar season, and secondly, the Reds have haven’t been excelling on the road this term.

Indeed, since winning 2-0 at Selhurst Park in their opening away match, they’re just W3-D2-L2 on the road in all competitions, with the latest a defeat at Red Star Belgrade. Their only clean sheet in this run was at goal-shy Huddersfield and none of the victories were by more than a single goal.

The Hornets certainly have the tools to cause Jurgen Klopp’s men some problems. They only lost narrowly hosting Man Utd but beat Spurs, meaning they’re W3-D2-L3 at Vicarage Road against ‘Big Six’ opposition since the start of last season.

The other two defeats came prior to Javi Gracia’s arrival and he has made them a much more organised outfit. Moreover, Liverpool will have one eye on their must win engagement with PSG next week, so we’ll support the hosts on the handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Watford +1.00 Asian Handicap at $2.06


West Ham v Man City

November 25th, 2.00am AEDT

West Ham had to come from behind to earn a draw at second-from-bottom Huddersfield in their last match, trailing for 68 minutes in that game, leaving them with just the single victory in their last five league outings.

They’ve already hosted three of the ’Big Six’ and they’ve put up valiant efforts – beating Man Utd, drawing with Chelsea and narrowly going down 1-0 to Spurs. However, they tend to get played off the park on the spacious London Stadium pitch against the more fluid attacks of Liverpool and Man City.

Indeed, they shipped four goals in all four matches hosting those two over the past couple of seasons, while they were also thumped 4-0 at Anfield back in August. This City side are just going from strength to strength and so it could be another ugly afternoon for the Hammers.

Pep Guardiola’s charges have been firing on all cylinders for a while now. They’re on a run of 11 victories from 12 unbeaten games in all competitions with nine of these victories by at least a two-goal margin and incredibly four have been by five or more.

They’ve had some tough fixtures away from home in the league, visiting Spurs, Liverpool, Arsenal and Wolves already. Their other trip saw them put five past Cardiff and since Guardiola moved to Manchester, they’ve won 18 of 22 trips to bottom-half teams, with 12 of these victories by at least two goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City -2.0 Asian Handicap at $2.2


Tottenham v Chelsea

November 25th, 4.30am AEDT

Without setting the world alight, Spurs find themselves just a point off the unbeaten Chelsea as they’ve managed to find ways of winning tight games. However, all nine of their victories have been against sides 8th or below in the table as they’ve lost at Watford as well as hosting Liverpool and Man City.

We doubt the Blues will be able to come to Wembley and dominate like the latter two did, and so we should be in for an evenly matched contest.

Chelsea are unbeaten along with City and Liverpool, but we’re reluctant to get too carried away as they’ve actually drawn four of their last seven. They’ve won four of five unbeaten matches on the road, but the highest side they’ve visited is 13th-placed West Ham, which they drew.

The only teams to defeat Spurs in their last 12 across all competitions are Barcelona and Man City, and with little to split these two, we’re leaning towards the draw. Indeed, they share an identical W3-D2-L3 record in the league against each other since Pochettino pitched up in North London.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Draw at $3.42


Bournemouth v Arsenal

November 26th, 12.30am AEDT

This has the billing of an entertaining game and in the past it’s not disappointed with their last four encounters all featuring at least three goals. Bournemouth have gone down in their last two but were arguably unlucky to lose to both Man Utd and Newcastle having managed 32 shots across the two fixtures.

They did net in both defeats and behind Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City, they are the top scorers in the league. Indeed, nine of their 12 matches this term have had at least three goals, as have nine of their 13 games at the Vitality against the ‘Big Six’ since 2016/17, with six of these featuring at least four strikes.

Arsenal’s unbeaten run has stretched to 16 matches in all competitions, but Gunners fans will have been sweating over the fitness of their dynamic duo Lacazette and Aubameyang up top. However, both took place in training after the international break and are expected to be fit for Sunday, so their entertaining brand of football under Emery should continue.

This is especially the case on the road where both teams have score in all five of their trips and averaged 4.6 goals per game, as all but one went over the 3.5 Goals line with that exception against a Rafa Benitez’s defensive minded Newcastle.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 3.5 Goals at $2.23


Burnley v Newcastle

November 27th, 7.00am AEDT

This game doesn’t exactly get the juices flowing, but it is crucial in the relegation battle all the same. Newcastle made it back-to-back victories at St James’s Park prior to the international break as their season has finally kick-started following seven defeats form their opening 10 winless matches.

However, the fixture list hasn’t been kind and five of these losses were inflicted by ‘Big Six’ opponents, with each by just a single goal margin. On the road, if we take out their two trips to Manchester, then they’ve secured goalless draws at Cardiff, Palace and Southampton, meaning seven of their 13 trips to bottom-half opponents since the start of last season have finished all-square.

Burnley are winless from their last five outings as Man City, Chelsea and West Ham each got the better of them. They did also draw with both Huddersfield and Leicester in that time too, with their most recent outing finishing 0-0 at the King Power Stadium.

With that in mind, this looks likely to be another low-scoring encounter, especially as 10 of the Clarets last 11 matches hosting bottom-half sides have seen fewer than three goals.

Moreover, their two meetings with the Magpies last term finished 1-1 and 1-0 to in their favour, with the latter coming at Turf Moor, though the hosts are nowhere near reaching last seasons’ form and we can’t seem them prevailing in this one.

Therefore, the draw looks the most likely outcome with both managers likely to deploy their usual shut up shop tactics.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Draw at $3.10

Southampton v Watford

November 11th, 2.00am AEDT

Southampton were thumped 6-1 at the hands of Man City and although the result was expected, Mark Hughes finds himself under serious pressure after just one victory this season. Reports are suggesting that he’ll be given the sack if he doesn’t win here, so a W1-D3-L4 record at St Mary’s since he took over the reins doesn’t look good for Sparky.

The Saints’ penalty at the Etihad was their first goal in six outings, while at home they’ve lost to top-half outfits Chelsea and Leicester and only managed a point against the likes of Newcastle, Brighton and Burnley.

Watford were left to rue missed chances as they surprisingly lost at St James’ Park last time out. It was a game they dominated and should have won, but instead had their second away defeat of the season inflicted on them. The other was at the Emirates, but they’ve picked up seven points in trips to Wolves, Fulham and Burnley and even after the lapse up in Tyneside, should feel confident of getting a result here. Southampton are in a rut and lacking direction, so must be taken on as favourites.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Watford +0.25 Asian Handicap at $1.83


Crystal Palace v Tottenhamn

November 11th, 4.30am AEDT

Spurs will be buoyed coming into this fixture after staging a late comeback to beat PSV and keep their Champions League hopes alive. We mentioned last week that Spurs have struggled when facing real quality this season but they seem to get the job done against everyone else.

Indeed, excluding matches with Man City and Liverpool, they’ve won eight of nine games including all five trips to bottom-half teams.

Palace were unable to back up their impressive point at home to Arsenal as they lost at Stamford Bridge. However, their two goals against the Gunners were form the penalty spot as they’re yet to score form open play at Selhurst Park.

Since an early victory over the Blues early on in Roy Hodgson’s tenure, they’ve lost five of seven winless matches hosting the Big Six and we expect them to fall short again. Indeed, Spurs have prevailed 1-0 in their last four encounters with Palace and they should once again have just enough quality to overcome their hosts.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs Win at 1.84


Liverpool v Fullham

November 11th, 11.00pm AEDT

Unfortunately for Fulham, the Anfield crowd will be expecting a reaction from their team following a shock defeat in in Belgrade on Tuesday night. The Cottagers are the perfect opposition for Klopp’s men to restore some pride with their rearguard non-existent at times this season.

Excluding fixtures with fellow Big Six sides, the Reds have won all seven fixtures this term. Of the four of these that took place at home, three were by at least a three-goal margin, while since the start of last season, Liverpool have won by the same margin in six of eight matches hosting current bottom-six sides and last terms’ bottom-six finishers.

A fifth consecutive defeat has seen Fulham drop to the foot of the table. The latest would have hurt the most as they lost 1-0 to fellow strugglers Huddersfield, and although it was only the second time this season they’d not conceded at least twice, it was the Terriers’ first goal at home in eight.

Slavisa Jokanovic’s men shipped at least three goals in their previous four and while this was expected against Arsenal, the likes of Bournemouth, Cardiff and Everton took advantage of their lackadaisical defence. Mo Salah and co will be looking to fill their boots against the divisions worst defence.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool -2.5 Asian Handicap at 1.83


Chelsea v Everton

November 12th, 1.15am AEDT

Chelsea continue to keep pace with Liverpool and Man City and prior to their trip to BATE Borisov, they’ve won 13 of 16 unbeaten matches this season. That includes seven from nine on home turf as they’ve netted 22 goals, with the two exceptions against Liverpool and Man Utd.

With Alvaro Morata regaining some confidence with a brace against Palace and Eden Hazard to come back into the starting line-up, they should have too much quality for this Everton side that have only kept clean sheets against Palace and Fulham this term.

However, the Toffees do have their tails up after winning four of their last five, but the sole defeat was at Old Trafford and Marco Silva has now lost seven of eight winless trips to Big Six sides as a manager in the Premier League.

Moreover, Everton have a dire record in these types of matches, going down in 18 of 26 winless trips since 2014/15. They have however netted in nine of 12 such matches home or away since 2016/17, and so a home win and both teams to score looks the best way to go. Indeed, the Blues have kept just one clean sheet in their six league outings at the Bridge under Mauricio Sarri.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea Win and BTTS at 2.80


Arsenal v Wolves

November 12th, 3.30am AEDT

Arsenal proved their top four credentials with a well-earned draw hosting Liverpool last weekend and we fully expect them to return to wining ways, as they always do when hosting non-Big Six sides. Indeed, their winning streak at the Emirates in such encounters has stretched to a remarkable 23 games with 18 of these by at least two clear goals, including all four under Unai Emery.

Wolves initially settled quickly back into life in the Premier League, but their six-match unbeaten run has been followed by three consecutive defeats. Having averaged less than a goal a game prior to meeting Spurs, they showed plenty of endeavor going forward, especially in the second-half, but their two goals still came form the spot.

On the road they’ve managed just three in five trips and so Arsenal should have too much firepower for them. Indeed, the Gunners have won eight of nine unbeaten matches hosting promoted sides since 2015/16, with seven of these victories to nil and five by two or more goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Arsenal -1 Asian Handicap at 2.03


Man City v Man United

November 12th, 3.30am AEDT

Man City have shifted into another gear since the last international break, winning each of their six games across all competitions by an aggregate score of 23-1. The latest saw them hammer Shakhtar 6-0 at the Etihad but United arrive here following a more impressive midweek result.

They came from behind to stun Juventus with two late goals, much to Mourinho’s joy, and having come back from two down in this fixture last term, Pep Guardiola will be wary of his city rivals, despite the hosts’ strong favouritism in the market.

United are the only side to beat City in their last 26 league matches (W21-D4-L1), but that successes was just one of two United have managed on the road to ‘Big Six’ outfits since Mourinho pitched up at Old Trafford. The Red Devils are W2-D4-L5 over this period, with one of the draws at Stamford Bridge in the only one of these fixtures to take place this season.

They will have gained confidence from their result in Turin, but it was the sixth time in their last seven matches where there was at least one strike that they’ve conceded first. City meanwhile, have made a habit of starting fast as they’ve struck within the first half an hour in each of their six-game winning streak.

With this in mind we’ll have a small wager on Man City/Draw half-time/full-time, especially with 10 of United’s last 12 goals coming in the second period.

However, our main bet is Sergio Aguero to score. While results have turned around for United, they’re still not keeping clean sheets with their sole shut out in their last 12 against La Liga’s lowest scorers Valencia. The Argentine is the man to take advantage and he will get you goals against just about anybody, but he particularly enjoys derby day.

He has eight in his last 12 he’s featured in across all competitions and that’s despite completing the full 90 minutes in just half of these games and only playing a minimum of 80 minutes in two thirds.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Sergio Aguero Anytime Goalscorer at 1.80

Bournemouth v Man Utd

November 3rd, 11.30pm AEDT

Bournemouth find themselves ahead of Man Utd at this stage with Eddie Howe’s charges playing some fantastic free-flowing football, as only Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City have outscored them.

However, they’ve had a relatively easy fixture list with their sole match-up against a ‘Big Six’ opponent ending in defeat at Chelsea. Their record hosting such sides over the past two seasons is just W2-D2-L8, though eight of these finished with three or more goals and six with at least four.

Although United beat Everton last time out, they’re just not backable at the moment, so goals appear to be the smart way of approaching this one. The Toffees still got on the scoresheet in defeat, meaning the Red Devils have kept just one clean sheet all term, despite having one of the best keepers in the world between the sticks.

We have no confidence in the likes of Smalling and Lindelof in defence, so can see this being an entertaining affair. Over 2.5 Goals has landed in eight of their 10 matches to date and it seems the Cherries are the perfect opponents for this run to continue.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 1.75


Newcastle v Watford

November 4th, 2.00am AEDT

Newcastle may have lifted themselves from the foot of the table with a goalless stalemate away at Southampton, but this was the fourth time in five matches where they’ve drawn a blank. The hosts have only netted more than a single goal in one of 10 outings so far, losing seven of these games, including all five on home turf.

The Magpies lost both encounters with Watford last term by a combined score of 5-1 and the visitors have been boosted ahead of this clash by consecutive victories as they downed Wolves and Huddersfield 2-0 and 3-0 respectively. Their only defeats this season have come against Arsenal, Man Utd and high-flying Bournemouth as they’ve won six of their remaining seven games.

They netted at least twice across each of these victories and with Newcastle’s attack so meek, if the Hornets get in front it’s difficult to see a way back for Rafa Benitez’s men.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Watford Win at 2.69


Arsenal v Liverpool

November 4th, 4.30am AEDT

Arsenal’s winning run came to an end at Selhurst Park last weekend, but at home they’ve won four consecutively in the league while averaging 2.5 goals per game. However, it has been well documented that they’ve not faced a ‘Big Six’ side in this time and their only issues in the past at the Emirates have been when one of the better teams have visited.

Indeed, City swept them aside on the opening day of the season, meaning they’re winless in their last five hosting the ‘Big Six’, conceding at least twice in each of these. We’re not sure Liverpool should be such strong favourite though as four of these were at the tail end of Wenger’s weakening reign and going back to 2014/15, their overall record is W6-D9-L6 in these matches. The Gunners have certainly improved now Unai Emery has had more time to mould the side and this will be a true reflection of how far they’ve come and whether they’re true top-four contenders.

Liverpool put four past Cardiff, but that is to be expected at Anfield. On the road they’ve not scored more than twice this season, as they’ve been more reliant on a resilient defence. This has resulted in a 1-1 draw at Chelsea, as well as goalless stalemate hosting Man City, so we’re not so confident as in the past of the goals bonanza that usually occurs in this fixture.

The Reds overall record traveling to ‘Big Six’ sides under Jurgen Klopp is an even W5-D6-L4, and travelling to the Emirates, Liverpool have won just two of 12 trips (W2-D6-L4). Overall, against an improving Arsenal, Liverpool look a little skinny to us and the draw represents the best value in the outright market.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Draw at 3.76


Wolves v Spurs

November 4th, 6.45am AEDT

Spurs went down to Man City 1-0 in a scrappy encounter on a farcical Wembley pitch. The north Londoners have come up short against real quality this season, but they’ve won seven of their eight matches against sides outside the current top five.

Wolves’ fantastic start to the campaign has somewhat halted with back-to-back defeats to Brighton and Watford. They’re a very well organised side under Nuno, evening holding Man City to a draw at Molineux earlier in the season, but they’re lacking in penetration up front. They’re averaging less than a goal a game and with Riyad Mahrez’s strike on Monday night the only time Spurs have conceded in their last four, we think Wolves could struggle again.

Since arriving at the club, Mauricio Pochettino has maintained an incredible record of 24 victories from 26 unbeaten matches against promoted sides. With Christian Erikson and Dele Alli both returning to fitness, as well as the presence of Harry Kane, they should have enough quality to edge this one.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs Win at 2.2


Man City v Southampton

November 5th, 2.00am AEDT

Man City are top of the Premier League thanks to a vastly superior goal difference over Liverpool as not only are they the top scorers, but also the meanest defence. All this despite already travelling to Spurs, Liverpool and Arsenal, where they kept a clean sheet in each, and so Southampton are unlikely to cause the hosts much alarm.

The Saints’ six goals this term is only worsened by Huddersfield and they’ve now drawn a blank in each of their last five, despite attempting the most shots this season in the Premier League behind City and Chelsea. The Blues and Liverpool and have both inflicted comfortable 3-0 victories over the south-coast club this term, and with the Citizens not conceding in their last six, we see nothing but a home win to nil.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City Win to Nil at 1.85


Chelsea v Palace

November 5th, 3.00am AEDT

Palace showed plenty of spirit against Arsenal to earn a 2-2 draw and halt Arsenal’s winning run, even netting their first home goals of the season, while they won the shot count by 16 to seven. However, that point against Arsenal is Palace’s only one that hasn’t come against a team down in the current bottom three. Furthermore, the Eagles lost all six trips to the ‘Big Six’ last term by an aggregate score of 17-2, which spells trouble when visiting an impressive Chelsea side.

Maurizio Sarri’s team strolled to a 4-0 win at Burnley, which was even achieved without Eden Hazard. They’ve only seen City net more goals this term and they shouldn’t encounter too many problems finding their way onto the scoresheet. However, despite Palace’s troubles in front of goal, they’ve only failed to net in one of five road trips so far – even missing a penalty in that game against Everton.

Palace’s counter-attacking strategy is more suited to life on the road where the expectation to take the initiative isn’t so great, and in Zaha they possess the perfect weapon for that tactic. Both teams have actually scored in each of the last three meetings between these two sides, as well as each of their last three encounters at Stamford Bridge, and a repeat of Chelsea’s 2-1 victory here last term would be of little surprise.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea & both teams to score at 2.6

Liverpool v Cardiff

October 28th, 1.00am AEDT

Liverpool ended their winless run of four games across all competitions with a hard-fought 1-0 victory at Huddersfield last weekend. Their attack then clicked into gear as they put four past minnows Red Star Belgrade without reply midweek.

It was their seventh clean sheet in all competitions this season with the only clubs to breach their defence being Leicester, Spurs, PSG, Chelsea and Napoli. Each of these are a class above Cardiff so it should be another routine victory in front of the Kop. Indeed, they’ve gone nine league games without conceding at Anfield and Jurgen Klopp has won all seven matches at Anfield against promoted sides since taking the reins, with his team shipping just two goals across these.

Cardiff’s four-goal haul against Fulham – by far the divisions’ worst defence – does nothing to convince us they can breach that backline.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool Win to Nil at 1.73


Leicester v West Ham

October 28th, 3.30am AEDT

Leicester started the game brilliantly at Arsenal and should have been more than a goal up before Mesut Ozil struck for the Gunners just before the half-time whistle. It’s typical of how the Foxes’ season has gone so far as they’ve looked bright going forward but vulnerable to any cutting edge in the oppositions’ attack.

Indeed, they’ve netted in every match but kept just two clean sheets – one versus lowly Newcastle and the other against Wolves where they were saved by the woodwork on three occasions. As a result, seven of their nine matches have had at least three goals and so the Over 2.5 Goals price looks generous.

The record will show West Ham losing their last two 1-0, but, it’s not been through a lack of creativity or endeavor going forward but rather some poor finishing and top-class goalkeeping form the opposition. After trailing at the interval against Brighton and Spurs they peppered the goal in the second period on both occasions without any deserved reward.

They’re hardly water-tight at the back though under Manuel Pellegrini as they’ve kept just one clean sheet this term and away from home, 12 of their last 16 have had three or more strikes.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 1.95


Burnley v Chelsea

October 29th, 12.30am AEDT

We thought Burnley might get their true form this season exposed at the Etihad and it proved to be the case as Man City put five past them while they created very little themselves. Only Fulham, Cardiff and Huddersfield have conceded more than the Clarets this term and they now face another of the Big Six in Chelsea.

Hosting such sides, they’re just W1-D2-L10 since 2016/17 as even Man Utd secured a 2-0 victory here this term. In fact, seven of these defeats have been without scoring and with their attack looking bare this season, they could struggle to lay a glove on this Chelsea outfit.

Two of the three times the Blues have dropped points this term has been against Big Six opposition. Excluding such teams, they’ve won five of six unbeaten matches where they’ve conceded just twice.

All four of their road games have come at teams 14th or below and they’ve now won 10 of 14 trips to bottom-half teams since the start of last season, and seven of these victories have been to nil.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea to Win to Nil at 2.15


Crystal Palace v Arsenal

October 29th, 12.30am AEDT

Problems continue to mount for Palace as Milivojevic’s missed penalty at Everton denied them much-needed points, and the concession of two late goals made it an even more bitter pill to swallow. There are major issues going forward with an over-reliance on Wilfred Zaha producing some magic or being fouled for a penalty. They’ve not scored at Selhurst Park yet, despite facing Southampton and Newcastle already, and so we fear for them with the Premier League’s in-form side visiting.

Palace generally raise their game when the big guns come to town, but since beating Chelsea at home early on in Roy Hodgson’s tenure, they’ve lost five of six unbeaten matches hosting such teams. Liverpool’s last-minute strike at the beginning of this campaign was the only time the Eagles were beaten by more than one goal in this run, but since then they’ve been in decline, while Arsenal have gained momentum and confidence under Unai Emery.

This is written before the Gunners’ trip to Sporting on Thursday night, but prior to that they’d won 10 consecutive matches. In the league it’s seven in a row, as crucially these have all been versus sides outside the Big Six. They’ve scored 10 times in the three away games in this run, with each at a side currently in the bottom six.

There’s no way we can envisage this Arsenal side drawing a blank and although they’re not the most stable at the back, Palace’s attack is horribly out of nick and the North London club just look to have too much quality for their struggling hosts.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Arsenal to Win at 1.82


Man United v Everton

October 29th, 3.00am AEDT

Man Utd were thoroughly out-classed by Juventus midweek as they lacked any belief that they could topple a European giant. However, they’ve shown some spirit in the league – particularly in the second-half – to come from behind to pick up points in their last two against Chelsea and Newcastle.

However, they still conceded twice in each of these as their defence is proving problematic. Usually a key element of Mourinho’s tactics, only Burnley, Huddersfield, Cardiff and Fulham have conceded more than the United this term as they’ve kept just one clean sheet, with both teams scoring in seven of their nine fixtures.

Everton have their tails up after winning their last three, but Marco Silva has lost six of seven winless trips to Big Six sides as a manager in the Premier League and that doesn’t bode well for turning around the Toffees’ dire record in such encounters.

Indeed, they’ve lost 17 of 25 winless trips to the Big Six since 2014/15, though this United outfit are one of the weakest they would have travelled to in this time. Since 2016/17, both teams have netted in eight of 13 such trips which looks the best way to go in this one with the Red Devils’ troubles at the back.

Silva is an attack-minded manager and the likes of Sigurdsson and Richarlison should cause the hosts defence some problems, but with Everton already conceding seven goals in four away games this term, Mourinho’s men should experience some joy going the other way.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – BTTS – Yes at 1.87


Tottenham v Man City

October 30th, 7.00am AEDT

Spurs have won their last four in the league while conceding just once, but they’ve each been against sides in the bottom nine. They’ve lost at seventh-placed Watford and against real quality this season, they were outclassed hosting Liverpool as they were fortunate to just lose 2-1, while Barcelona won here 4-2 in the Champions League.

The Premier League champions are the latest visitors and although Spurs didn’t feel the absence of Jan Vertonghen against West Ham or Cardiff, they may do here. They conceded twice at PSV on Wednesday in the Belgian’s absence and since the start of 2015/16, he’s missed six matches against top-half teams and they’ve gone W1-D3-L2 without keeping a clean sheet.

City have won five of seven trips to fellow Big Six sides since the start of last season, with both exceptions coming at Anfield – although the latest would have been different had Riyad Mahrez stuck the penalty away. They dominated Spurs 3-1 here last season and we can envisage a similar outcome.

They’ve really stepped it up in this last week, putting five past Burnley and turning on the style at Shakhtar on Tuesday with Guardiola saying his side played the best football of his time in charge. These are ominous signs for Spurs but with Cristian Erikson back they carry a much greater threat going forward.

Indeed, he played a key role in both of their goals at PSV midweek and while we think City will have too much for the hosts, it has all the elements of a high-scoring encounter.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City Win and Over 2.5 Goals at 2.40

Chelsea v Man Utd

October 20th, 10.30pm AEDT

Jose Mourinho may not have been able to visit his former employers had his United side not staged a second-half comeback against Newcastle prior to the international break. However, he keeps his job for now but that doesn’t paper over the cracks at Old Trafford.

Worryingly, they’ve faced just one of the Big Six this season, losing 3-0 at home to Spurs, and during Mourinho’s time in Manchester, the Red Devils are only W2-D3-L5 travelling to such opposition.

That includes defeats without scoring in both trips to Stamford Bridge and since Fergie retired, Chelsea have won four of five unbeaten matches here. The Blues look an impressive side under Maurizio Sarri, keeping pace with Liverpool and Man City so far.

They were only denied a fourth consecutive home victory by a stunning late Daniel Sturridge strike and in Eden Hazard they possess one of the in-form players in world football right now, with the Belgian unplayable at times.

It’s pretty simple; Chelsea are just a better side than United at the minute and are a good thing for all three points

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea Win at 1.73


Man City v Burnley

October 21st, 1.00am AEDT

It remains to be seen whether Riyad Mahrez’s blaze over the bar from the spot will come back to haunt City, but returning to the familiar surroundings of the Etihad, this should prove a routine victory.

They’ve brushed aside inferior opposition this term and hosting bottom-half teams they’ve won 13 of 14 unbeaten matches since the start of last season, with 10 of these by at least a two-goal margin and seven by three or more.

Last term, Burnley showed plenty of defensive resilience and a bit of luck to go W1-D3-L2 travelling to the Big Six. However, those two defeats were 3-0 here and 5-0 at the Emirates and worryingly that reliability at the back seems to have dispersed. Although they’ve picked up seven points in their last three outings, two were against arguably the divisions’ two weakest sides, Cardiff and Huddersfield, where they were fortunate on both occasions.

At Turf Moor, the Terriers won the shot count 19-6 and likewise Cardiff the week before 20-3, while even in their 4-0 victory over Bournemouth, the Clarets were out-shot 19-12. Joe Hart has made the joint-most saves in the Premier League this season and these are damming statistics for Sean Dyche.

They won’t get away with it at the Etihad and if City are clinical then this could be a rout

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City -2.5 Asian Handicap at 1.72


West Ham v Tottenham

October 21st, 1.00am AEDT

Having picked up seven points against Everton, Chelsea and Man Utd, West Ham went down 1-0 to Brighton but they were rather unlucky to do so.

They dominated for large periods of the game, managing 17 shots in total, and we don’t think that defeat at the Amex will stall their momentum. They welcome a depleted Spurs side to the London Stadium and the Hammers fans get up for this game more than any other in the season, so we’re expecting a good showing.

We pointed out last time that Spurs may struggle in attack without their two chief creators – Dele Alli and Cristian Eriksen – and that was the case as they limped to a 1-0 victory against Cardiff. Without the former, they’ve won just two of nine away matches he’s missed since arriving from MK Dons, and they’ve averaged nearly a goal less per match.

With Harry Kane also not firing on all cylinders they look too shorts at odds-on. Indeed, the Hammers have lost just one of their last six hosting the Big Six – against Man City. Excluding that fixture, they’ve conceded just once in the remaining five and we’re backing them to pick up at least another point here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – West Ham +0.5 Asian Handicap at 2.07


Wolves v Watford

October 21st, 1.00am AEDT

Watford haven’t scored in their last two and shipped six goals against teams going well in Arsenal and Bournemouth. They face another in-form side here and although the Hornets’ attack looked sharp in the first part of the season, the three goals they scored on the road at Burnley looks more and more like an anomaly.

Indeed, they travelled to Turf Moor at the right time as the Clarets started the season so poorly. Beyond that, they only scored once at the divisions’ worst defence, Fulham, and fired a blank at the Emirates in their other road trip.

They’re also without leading assister Jose Holebas, who is suspended, while they failed to score in all seven away matches last season under Javi Gracia, losing six, and could struggle against this disciplined Wolves side.

Nuno named an unchanged starting XI for the eighth consecutive match at Palace and this consistency is bringing rewards as they’ve won four of six unbeaten games. The two stalemates in this run were 1-1 draws with the two Manchester clubs and as the four victories have come to nil, we’re on again.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Wolves Win to Nil at 2.88


Huddersfield v Liverpool

October 21st, 3.30am AEDT

Huddersfield picked up a deserved point at Burnley a fortnight ago, but they’ve simply been out-classed this season when facing stronger opposition, losing 3-0 and 2-0 hosting Chelsea and Spurs respectively, as well as a 6-1 defeat at the Etihad.

They lost by an aggregate of 6-0 to Liverpool last term, but the Reds haven’t been quite as effective going forward this season, while their squad returns battered and bruised from the international break with Mo Salah injured and Sadio Mane a doubt.

The main issue for the Terriers is whether they can breach this new and improved Liverpool defence and the home fans are yet to see them score this season.

In fact, they’ve netted just the solitary strike in their last nine at Kirklees and even without Salah, the visitors should still have enough about them the get on the scoresheet, and so an away win to nil seems most likely.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool Win to Nil at 1.95


Arsenal v Leicester

October 23rd, 6.00am AEDT

After a tricky start of consecutive defeats to Man City and Chelsea, Arsenal have won nine on the spin across all competitions, with the latest their most impressive and dominant under Unai Emery. They took Fulham to the cleaners at Craven Cottage, and now back at the Emirates we fully expect them to pick up another three points.

Excluding fellow Big Six sides, the Gunners have won a remarkable 22 straight matches here with 14 of these to nil and 17 by at least two clear strikes.

With Leicester the latest visitors, we’d prefer to back Arsenal on the handicap rather than to nil as the Foxes offer a threat going forward. Indeed, with the likes of Jamie Vardy and James Maddison playing well the visitors have netted in every game this season, though travelling to Big Six teams they’ve lost 11 of 13 winless trips since 2016/17.

They did score in all but three of the defeats and with Arsenal not entirely convincing at the back, we wouldn’t put anyone off the home win and both teams to score. However, so clinical have Arsenal looked going forward with Aubameyang and Lacazette both in top form, we’ll back them on the handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Arsenal -1.5 Asian Handicap at 2.42

Brighton v West Ham

October 6th, 5.00am AEST

Brighton tasted defeat for just the fifth time on home soil since their promotion when Spurs won here last time out. Their other defeats have been at the hands of Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Leicester, so this remains a difficult task for a rejuvenated West Ham.

Whereas the Seagulls’ success last term was built on a solid defensive foundation, they’ve been lacklustre at the back this term as they’re yet to keep a clean sheet, conceding exactly twice in six of their seven matches. Both teams have scored in their three games at the AMEX as they’ve averaged four goals per game.

West Ham have won three of four unbeaten games across all competitions, beating Everton and Man Utd in the league as well as holding an impressive Chelsea to a stalemate, while they thrashed a hapless Macclesfield 8-0 in the Carabao Cup.

Given their increased output, coupled with a leaky Brighton rear-guard, this encounter should feature goals. That’s nothing new for the visitors with 16 of their 22 road trips since the start of last season featuring at least three strikes and a massive 13 of these containing a minimum of four goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 2.02


Man United v Newcastle

October 7th, 3.30am AEST

Jose Mourinho failed to ease any of the pressure on himself as his side could only manage a dull goalless stalemate with Valencia midweek. It’s their fourth successive game in all competitions without a victory and another poor result and performance against a winless Newcastle could be the final nail in the coffin for ‘The Special One’.

The Magpies’ miserable start to the season continued with a 2-0 home defeat to Leicester, but the players will probably be happier playing away from St James’s where the atmosphere is getting increasingly toxic. Their only points this term have come on the road with their other away match a 2-1 defeat at the Etihad. In fact, that’s been the scoreline in all four of their meetings with the ‘Big Six’ this term.

It’s been United’s worst start to a league campaign for 29 years and despite having a fantastic record against weaker teams at Old Trafford last season, there’s no way we can get behind them in the current climate. They’ve won by more than one goal in just one of their last nine here, while in Newcastle’s last 14 away matches, they’ve only lost by more than one goal in trips to Man City and Liverpool.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Newcastle +1.25 Asian Handicap at 2.04


Fulham v Arsenal

October 7th, 9.00pm AEST

While Fulham continue to muster plenty of chances, their frailties at the back are costing them any chance of winning games. This was none more evident than their 3-0 defeat at Everton where they missed a couple of guilt-edge opportunities before conceding three second-half goals.

Along with bottom two Cardiff and Huddersfield, they’ve shipped the most goals in the division, but up the other end, Mitrovic and Schurrle have been impressing and will fancy their chances against a depleted Gunners defence.

Unai Emery is without Koscielny and Cech, while Sokratis, who has impressed since his arrival, is a doubt, so we expect plenty of goals. Indeed, prior to their Europa League encounter, Arsenal have won seven consecutive matches in all competitions, scoring at least twice in each but only keeping two clean sheets.

In their last 13 on the road in the league, their sole shut out was at Huddersfield as 10 of these featured at least three goals with five featuring four or more.

Betting Strategy

 BACK  – Over 3.5 Goals at 2.20


Southampton v Chelsea

October 7th, 11.15pm AEST

Chelsea managed to come from behind and defeat Jurgen Klopp’s men thanks to a sublime bit of individual brilliance from Eden Hazard. That League Cup defeat ended Liverpool’s seven game winning streak in all competitions while the Blues now remain unbeaten from their eight outings so far, drawing just one of them. However, both sides made eight changes to their starting teams for that last encounter and this Saturday will have a much different look to it.

Liverpool have already won at Spurs, but Chelsea’s toughest visitors so far have been an Arsenal side that historically have struggled going to the top teams and so this week will be the first real test of Maurizio Sarri’s side’s title credentials.

Liverpool struggled at the top teams last term as they managed just one point from their five trips to top-six opponents, a 3-3 draw at the Emirates, as they conceded 16 goals across these matches. Whilst they won at Spurs, we’re not convinced those struggles from last term have been put to bed as Pochettino was without Lloris and Alli that day.

For all their struggles last term, Chelsea still beat Liverpool and Man Utd at Stamford Bridge and so we’re surprised to see them available at the prices they are. They’ve won all three of their home matches whilst Sarri has a history of making his sides very tough to beat at home as in his last two seasons with Napoli they lost only four of 38 home matches.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea Win to Nil at 2.81


Tottenham v Cardiff

October 7th, 12.00am AEST

Cardiff’s daunting run continues with a trip to Wembley to face a Spurs side that have got back to winning ways in the league. Neil Warnock’s men have faced Man City, Chelsea and Arsenal in their last four where they’ve been thoroughly out-classed, conceding 12 times in total, and even in the other match in this run they lost 2-1 at home to Burnley.

Spurs have won 14 of their last 18 at Wembley and despite a host of injuries, this should be a routine victory, especially with Harry Kane finding some form. Indeed, since Pochettino took charge they’ve won all 13 home matches against promoted teams with nine of these to nil and seven by at least two clear strikes.

They may have conceded four to the magic of Messi and Barcelona, but Cardiff look limited going forward with just one of their four goals this term coming away from home.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs Win to Nil at 2.15


Liverpool v Man City

October 8th, 2.30am AEST

Liverpool were the clear favourites for this clash prior to the midweek Champions League games, but after they went down to a late strike in Napoli and Man City scored late themselves to win in Hoffenheim, it’s now almost a pick ‘em contest.

For all the records City broke last year, Liverpool were problematic as they lost three of their four encounters in all competitions with the exception when Sadio Mane saw red in the first half at the Etihad in their league encounter.

No side has picked up more points that the Citizens on the road since the start of last season, but the Reds are unbeaten at Anfield in the league since April 2017, whilst they’ve gone over 700 minutes without conceding.

Liverpool have lost just one of their 15 matches hosting the ‘Big Six’ during Jurgen Klopp’s tenure (W6-D8-L1). That compares favourably to City’s W6-D1-L4 away record to the same opposition under Pep Guardiola, which includes defeat in both trips here.

In fact, Anfield is somewhat of a bogey ground for the blue half of Manchester as they’re just W1-D5-L15 in the Premier League era, which includes five consecutive defeats as the sole success came back in 2002/03.

So, on those stats we would have Liverpool as stronger favourites in front of their own fans. They have been efficient rather than spectacular this season, but they’ll take great confidence from four points in trips to Spurs and Chelsea.

There’s no side better in the land when gearing up for a big game and there is no doubt Klopp will have them fully charged come Sunday afternoon. Guardiola won’t change his style of passing teams to death, which suits the Reds high press and counter-attacking game.

As City are still unable to call on arguably their most likely midfielder to counteract this, Kevin De Bruyne, we’re siding with Liverpool.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool 0 Asian Handicap at 1.94

West Ham v Man Utd

September 29th, 9.30pm AEST

After a slow start, West Ham have finally got going as they followed a 3-1 win at Everton with a goalless draw at home to Chelsea. They face another tough test here as they host Man Utd, though the Red Devils slipped up again as they were held by Wolves in the league and then knocked out Derby in the EFL Cup.

We wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar result here and everything points to be a low-scoring encounter. The Hammers have managed just one goal at the London Stadium in three games this term, whilst Utd played out a goalless draw here at the end of last season. Indeed, eight of Man Utd’s last 12 away games saw Under 2.5 Goals and so we’re surprised to see ‘unders’ at odds against here.

Seven of West Ham’s last 12 at home have also gone under that mark as well as four of their last six against top-six sides here. What’s more, four of West Ham’s five home games with Utd since 2013/14 have seen fewer than three goals and whilst we’re playing in the goals market, we wouldn’t put anyone off backing the draw in what should be a cagey encounter.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 2.5 Goals at 2.02


Huddersfield v Spurs

September 30th, 12.00am AEST

Huddersfield continue to struggle this term as their 3-1 defeat at Leicester leaves them with just two points from their six games. Spurs, meanwhile, got back to winning ways with an impressive 2-1 win at Brighton and they’ll fancy their chances of making it back-to-back victories and edging closer to a top-four spot.

Huddersfield are yet to score in three home games and going back further, they’ve in fact managed just one goal in their last eight on their own turf. They’ve lost without scoring in their last three at home to top-six opponents with Chelsea and Liverpool winning 3-0 and Arsenal 1-0. Spurs have kept only one clean sheet in their last nine on their travels though and so the win to nil isn’t the most attractive at the prices.

Instead, since Spurs have been level at the break in eight of their last 10 road games whilst Huddersfield have been behind at the half in only eight of their 22 home matches since the start of last season, we’re backing Draw/Spurs Half Time/Full Time.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Draw/Spurs HT/FT at 2.72


Arsenal v Watford

September 30th, 12.00am AEST

The Gunners made it four straight wins and also kept their first clean sheet in beating Everton 2-0 at the Emirates. Watford bounced back from defeat against Utd by picking up a point at Fulham to retain their place in the top four, but the Gunners will be expecting to usurp them with victory here.

The victory over Everton means that Arsenal have won all 16 of their home games against sides outside the top six since the start of last season. They’ve won convincingly too as 12 of these victories were by more than one goal, nine were without conceding and they were ahead at the break in 10.

Watford are generally poor travellers as they’ve lost 13 of their 21 away games since the start of last season, including all their six visits to top-six opponents. In fact, in their matches against the ‘Big Six’ they’ve failed to score in any of their last four outings, being behind at the break in each of the last five of them whilst losing by more than a single goal in five too. We wouldn’t put anyone off playing in each of those markets but we’re going to back the Gunners -1.5 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK  – Arsenal -1.5 Asian Handicap at 2.06


Man City v Brighton

September 30th, 12.00am AEST

Man City hammered Cardiff 5-0 last time out meaning they’ve won their last two by an aggregate of 8-0 and they’re starting to look as imperious as they were last season. They’ll relish the prospect of welcoming a Brighton side that conceded at least twice in both their meetings last season and the fans will be expecting a similar outcome.

The Citizens have won 19 of their last 21 at the Etihad, leading at the break in 15 of these and with 11 of these victories by more than two goals. Brighton have lost 14 of their 22 away games since the start of last term, including all eight of their trips to top-six opponents.

The visitors failed to score in all but one of those matches at top-six sides and although the Citizens on the Asian Handicap is tempting, the Seagulls lost only 1-0 at Anfield in their penultimate road game, so we’re siding with the win to nil.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City Win to Nil at 1.67


Everton v Fullham

September 30th, 12.00am AEST

Many were expecting big things from Fulham this term but it’s yet to materialise as they’re down in 15th after having to come from behind to rescue a point at home to Watford last time out. It’s been disappointing for Everton too as they’re down in 12th despite having a pretty soft fixture list to start the season.

The same can’t be said for Fulham’s away schedule as they’ve already gone to Man City and Spurs whilst they managed a draw at Brighton, which is a tough place to go. With that in mind, Everton are probably on the short side at 1.79, particularly as they’ve won just two of their last seven at Goodison Park and failed to beat strugglers Huddersfield and West Ham in their last two there. Indeed, they’re without a clean sheet in four at home and so they should give Fulham plenty of opportunities. We’ll lay the Toffees at the prices.

Betting Strategy

 LAY – Everton at 1.81


Chelsea v Liverpool

September 30th, 2.30am AEST

Chelsea managed to come from behind and defeat Jurgen Klopp’s men thanks to a sublime bit of individual brilliance from Eden Hazard. That League Cup defeat ended Liverpool’s seven game winning streak in all competitions while the Blues now remain unbeaten from their eight outings so far, drawing just one of them. However, both sides made eight changes to their starting teams for that last encounter and this Saturday will have a much different look to it.

Liverpool have already won at Spurs, but Chelsea’s toughest visitors so far have been an Arsenal side that historically have struggled going to the top teams and so this week will be the first real test of Maurizio Sarri’s side’s title credentials.

Liverpool struggled at the top teams last term as they managed just one point from their five trips to top-six opponents, a 3-3 draw at the Emirates, as they conceded 16 goals across these matches. Whilst they won at Spurs, we’re not convinced those struggles from last term have been put to bed as Pochettino was without Lloris and Alli that day.

For all their struggles last term, Chelsea still beat Liverpool and Man Utd at Stamford Bridge and so we’re surprised to see them available at the prices they are. They’ve won all three of their home matches whilst Sarri has a history of making his sides very tough to beat at home as in his last two seasons with Napoli they lost only four of 38 home matches.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea +0.25 Asian Handicap at 1.80

Man United v Wolves

September 23rd, 12.00am AEST

Wolves have made an impressive start to their Premier League campaign with 11 points from their five games but they face a tough test here as they go to a resurgent Man Utd side that’s recovered from a slow start with victories in their last two. Utd have won 16 of their 21 home games since the start of last season, keeping a clean sheet in 11 of these victories.

Wolves were beaten at Leicester in their opening road game before winning at a then struggling West Ham in their last away day and so we’re expecting Utd to take the spoils in this one. The Red Devils have won 12 of 15 home games against promoted opposition since 2013/14, with clean sheets in eight of these games.

However, they’ve taken a while to break these sides down recently, leading at the break in only two of the last nine since 2015/16. Since Wolves have been level at the break in four of their five games, including when hosting Man City, we’re backing Draw/Man Utd Half Time/Full Time

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Draw/Utd HT/FT at $4.6


Cardiff v Man City

September 23rd, 12.00am AEST

It’s been a tough start for Cardiff as they’ve picked up only two points from their five games and managed only three goals. Things don’t get any easier for them as they host Man City, who eased to a 3-0 victory over Fulham last time out. City have won 17 of their 21 away games since the start of last season and all six of their matches against bottom-six opponents.

Four of these six victories were without conceding but it often took City a while to break their hosts down as they led at the break in only half of these matches. Whilst City have kept only one clean sheet in their last four at home, they’ve shut out their opponents in half of their last eight road games and so we’re making the win to nil our standout selection, whilst we wouldn’t put anyone off chancing Draw/City Half Time/Full Time.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City Win to Nil at $1.83


Liverpool v Southampton

September 23rd, 12.00am AEST

Liverpool continued their impressive start with a 2-1 victory at Spurs as they’ve also lead at the break in all five of their victories and conceded just two goals across them. Southampton took the lead twice at home to Brighton last time out but couldn’t hold on to their advantage and so they had to settle for a point.

Saints won at Palace in their last road game, but they generally struggled when travelling to the top teams last term and they make this trip without their best player Danny Ings. They picked up only one point from their trips to top-six opponents, failing to score in half of these – including a 3-0 defeat here – whilst they also conceded five at Spurs and three at Arsenal. Indeed, Liverpool have scored at least three times in four of their last six at Anfield and so we’re siding with them to find the net more than twice.

Betting Strategy

 BACK  – Over 2.5 Liverpool Goals at $1.95.


Brighton v Tottenham

September 23rd, 2.30am AEST

Brighton have drawn 2-2 in their last two games as their defence has looked vulnerable this term as they’ve conceded at least twice in four of their five outings, whilst slow starts haven’t helped either as they’ve trailed at the break four times. Spurs have conceded twice in their last two as well as they’ve gone down to Watford and Liverpool and so they’ll be looking to get back on track here.

Spurs were held to a draw here at the end of last term as the Amex has proven a tough place to go. Brighton have lost only four times in 21 games here since the start of last season, whilst they’ve picked up 10 points from the last four visits of Big Six opponents.

Spurs failed to win at the likes of Watford, Southampton, Leicester and West Brom last term whilst they’ve already lost at Watford this term and so they look too short to us.

Betting Strategy

LAY – Spurs at $1.78


West Ham v Chelsea

September 23rd, 10.30pm AEST

Chelsea maintained their perfect record as they eased to a 4-1 win against Cardiff as they’re forcing their way into the title conversation. West Ham, meanwhile, picked up their first points of the season as they won 3-1 at Everton and they’ll be hopeful of a repeat of last season in this fixture as they beat the Blues 1-0 at the London Stadium.

The Hammers also held Unite and Arsenal to draws here last term whilst they were edged out by just a single goal by Spurs. With that in mind, Chelsea look on the short side at around 1.55 particularly as their two away victories have come against strugglers Huddersfield and Newcastle. Indeed, they’ve won only seven of their last 15 on the road, losing four of their last nine, and so we fancy this new-look Hammers side to once again show signs of improvement and adjustment to the methods of Pellegrini.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – West Ham +1 Asian Handicap at $2.11


Arsenal v Everton

September 24th, 1.00am AEST

After a tough start, Arsenal made it three straight wins with their 2-1 victory at Newcastle, but they’re still searching for their first clean sheet under Unai Emery. Everton, meanwhile, have picked up only six points from a pretty lenient opening five fixtures as this is by far their toughest test to date.

The Gunners have won 16 of their 21 home games with all the exceptions against fellow top-six opponents as they’ve been remarkably consistent against the rest of the division. Everton were hammered 5-1 here last term whilst they also went down 4-0 at Spurs and United and 2-0 at Chelsea. Therefore, we’re expecting a comfy victory for Emery’s men and indeed, seven of Arsenal’s last eight home wins were by more than one goal.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Arsenal -1.5 Asian Handicap at $2.29

 

Spurs v Liverpool

September 15th, 9.30pm AEST

Spurs’ perfect start to the season was ended as they went down to Watford prior to the international break. Liverpool have maximum points and have been largely untroubled to date, though this will be their toughest test. Liverpool generally struggled in these fixtures last term as they went down 5-0 at City, 4-1 at Spurs, 2-1 at Man Utd and 1-0 at Chelsea, whilst they drew 3-3 at Arsenal as they were exposed defensively against the top teams.

Spurs, on the other hand, have won three of their last four at home to top-six opponents, with the exception against Man City and so we’re surprised to see them priced up as outsiders. Pochettino’s record when hosting Big Six opponents is an impressive W11-D3-L4 and whilst Liverpool have made some impressive additions to their squad over the summer, they’re yet to prove they can do it against the top teams.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs 0 Asian Handicap at 2.11.


Chelsea v Cardiff

September 16th, 12.00am AEST

Cardiff scored their first goals of the season prior to the international break but they nonetheless went down 3-2 to Arsenal as they’re still searching for their first win of the season. It’s unlikely to come here as they travel to a Chelsea side that has maximum points and has impressed under new manager Maurizio Sarri.

Chelsea put in a more assured defensive display in beating Bournemouth having looked vulnerable against Arsenal the time before that at Stamford Bridge and it’s hard to see this goal-shy Cardiff side troubling their defence. Neil Warnock’s side have failed to score in both their away games so far, at Huddersfield and Bournemouth, which doesn’t bode well for them as they travel to much stronger opposition. Indeed, Chelsea have won five of six unbeaten home games against promoted teams since 2016/17 and they kept a clean sheet in four of those victories and so we’re backing a Chelsea win to nil.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea Win to Nil at 1.87


Man City v Fulham

September 16th, 12.00am AEST

Fulham have already gone to Spurs and been beaten 3-1 and they face the even tougher proposition of a trip to the Etihad, where Man City have won their two games by an aggregate of 8-2. Indeed, the Citizens are on a run of 18 wins in 20 home games, though they do give their opponents a chance as their only clean sheets in their last six at home have come against Huddersfield last term and Swansea.

Indeed, they’ve kept only five clean sheets in their last 16 at home and after drawing a blank against Palace on the opening day, Fulham have since netted seven times in their last three. They managed to net in defeat at Spurs and we fancy the Cottagers to do the same again here as they themselves don’t look to have the capability of stopping this rampant City side as they’ve already conceded nine goals in their four matches.

Betting Strategy

 BACK  – Man City Win and Both Teams to Score at 2.5


Newcastle v Arsenal

September 16th, 12.00am AEST

It says something about Newcastle’s schedule at the start of this season that a home clash with Arsenal is one of the easiest games they’ve had so far as they’ve already hosted Spurs and Chelsea and gone to Man City. They’ve lost each of those 2-1 and they’ll fancy their chances of scoring against an Arsenal side that has shipped eight goals already this term.

Indeed, the Gunners look a touch short at odds-on for a side with such a poor recent away record. They almost came unstuck against Cardiff whilst that was one of only five away wins they’ve managed in 21 games since the start of last season. They were beaten 2-1 here last season, one of a number of impressive home results the Magpies managed against the top teams. They also beat Man Utd and Chelsea at St James’ Park and drew against Liverpool, whilst none of the top-six have beaten them by more than one goal in their last seven home games. With that in mind, we’ll take the Gunners on.

Betting Strategy

LAY – Arsenal at 1.98


Watford v Man Utd

September 16th, 2.30am AEST

Watford have defied all expectations by winning their first four games, including a most impressive 2-1 home win over Spurs last time out. Utd got back on track with a 2-0 win at Burnley before the international break and Jose Mourinho will be hopeful of repeating the 4-2 win that his side managed here last term to ease some of the pressure on himself.

Indeed, there’s generally goals when the top teams come to Watford as both teams have scored in six of their seven home games against top-six opponents since the start of last season, with the exception a 6-0 hammering at the hands of Man City. That was one of four of these matches that saw more than three goals, whilst six had more than two. Utd have already shipped seven goals this term as they’ve looked far from secure defensively and so both teams to score looks overpriced, whilst we wouldn’t put anyone off chancing Over 3.5 Goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Both Teams to Score at 1.91


Everton v West Ham

September 17th, 1.00am AEST

Everton drew for the third time in four games against Huddersfield but they remain unbeaten and that certainly can’t be said of their visitors as they’re yet to pick up a point. They’ve gone to Liverpool and Arsenal already and suffered heavy defeats in what’s been a continuation of their poor away form from last season.

Indeed, they’ve now lost 12 of their last 21 away games but Everton have won only five of their last 12 at home and just one of their four games this season, despite a pretty lenient fixture list. Therefore, we’re not particularly keen on backing the hosts at odds-on and instead we’re turning our attention to the goals markets where we’re expecting there to be plenty with two attacking managers facing off. All four of Everton’s matches have seen both teams score, whilst seven of West Ham’s last nine away matches have seen more than three goals as both these sides have been vulnerable defensively.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 1.88

Leicester v Liverpool

September 1st, 9.30pm AEST

It’s been an excellent start for Liverpool as they’ve won their three games without conceding but they probably face their toughest test to date as they travel to a Leicester side that have won their last two after a narrow defeat at Man Utd on the opening day. The Foxes beat Arsenal and Spurs here last term whilst they drew against Man Utd, as Man City were the only top-six side to beat them by more than one goal.

These top six encounters were generally entertaining affairs as both teams scored in five, five also saw more than two goals and half had more than three. Indeed, Liverpool won 3-2 here and we could see something similar as we expect Klopp’s men to concede for the first time this season. Both teams to score looks the best play in this one, whilst given Leicester’s impressive home record in these fixtures, we wouldn’t put anyone off siding with them +1.25 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Both Teams to Score at 1.91


Chelsea v Bournemouth

September 2nd, 12.00am AEST

It’s been a perfect start for Chelsea under Maurizio Sarri as they have maximum points so far, but it’s been an impressive start for Bournemouth as they’ve amassed seven points from their three games. This is undoubtedly the Cherries’ toughest test to date though after wins over Cardiff and West Ham and a draw at home to Everton last time out. They struggled in these fixtures last term, as they lost and failed to score in five of their six trips to top-six teams, with the other a shock 3-0 win here at Stamford Bridge.

We’re not expecting a repeat of that result nor do we think that Chelsea will be able to shut out Eddie Howe’s men as they’ve looked far from defensively secure so far. The Blues are playing in an expansive style under the Italian and going back into last season they have only kept two clean sheets from their last eight home games. With Bournemouth netting twice in all their matches so far, both teams to score looks the value bet.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Both Teams to Score at 1.85


Man City v Newcastle

September 2nd, 2.30am AEST

Man City were held to a draw at Wolves last time out but they’re unsurprisingly overwhelming favourites to get back to winning ways as they host Newcastle. It’s been a tough start for Rafa Benitez’s men as they’ve already hosted Spurs and Chelsea, going down 2-1 to both. Whilst they don’t tend to get results against the top teams, they are generally competitive, as they’ve lost only one of their 14 clashes with top-six teams since the start of last season by more than two goals.

Indeed, since that 4-1 defeat at Man Utd, they went down 3-1 at Chelsea and at Man City, 1-0 at Arsenal and Spurs and 2-0 at Liverpool. With Kevin de Bruyne out, Newcastle’s task is made slightly less daunting and so we think they can once again avoid a thrashing versus one of the big boys. The Belgian has failed to start only five games since the start of last season and City have won just one of these by more than two goals, so we’re with the visitors on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Newcastle +2.5 Asian Handicap at 1.94


Cardiff v Arsenal

September 2nd, 2.30am AEST

Cardiff are still searching for their first league goal this term, despite having and extra man for 30 minutes against both Newcastle and Huddersfield. Indeed, with games against Chelsea and Man City following this one they’ll have hoped to have done better from their opening three games. Arsenal’s defeat at Chelsea was their eighth in their last nine away games but at the same price as Spurs are at Watford, we’d much prefer to back the Gunners.

Arsenal have won 13 of their 18 trips to promoted teams since 2012/13 (W13-D3-L2), keeping a clean sheet in eight of the last 15 of these. Indeed, given Cardiff’s lack of goals so far and the expectation that Arsenal will continue to improve defensively as Unai Emery has time to put his stamp on the team, we’re backing the visitors to win to nil. They’ve already shown progress across his three games in charge as they were much improved against the Hammers and had plenty of chances against Chelsea after a lacklustre showing against Man City in their opener.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Arsenal Win to Nil at 2.8


Watford v Spurs

September 3rd, 1.00am AEST

Many expected Watford to struggle this term after the departure of their manager and best player Richarlison to Everton but they’ve defied those expectations. They face their toughest test to date though as they host a Spurs side that also have three wins after they triumphed 3-0 at Man Utd last time out.

Watford have lost only six of their 21 home games since the start of last season and whilst the Manchester clubs both won fairly comfortably here last term, they beat Arsenal and Chelsea whilst they drew against Spurs themselves and Liverpool. With that in mind, and given their excellent start to the season, Spurs look a touch short here, perhaps as a result of that win at Man Utd. In fact, expected goals suggests that they deserved to lose at Old Trafford and with Watford not losing any of their last 12 home games by more than one goal, we’re siding with them +1 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Watford +1 Asian Handicap at 1.86


Burnley v Man Utd

September 3rd, 1.00am AEST

Both these sides have experienced poor starts as Burnley have shipped seven goals across their last two outings, losing both of them, while they were involved in a goalless draw at Southampton on the opening weekend. Man Utd meanwhile, have shipped six in defeats against Spurs and Brighton in their last two. However, Utd were unlucky at times against Spurs and the expected goals in fact suggested that they deserved to win that game. With Alexis Sanchez returning to full fitness, we’re expecting the Red Devils to get back to winning ways.

Watford have already won 3-1 at Turf Moor and whilst Burnley had an excellent season last term, they nonetheless picked up only one point from the visits of top-six teams, failing to score in half of these. Utd won 1-0 here but Burnley don’t look anywhere near as robust defensively this term, so we think Utd could be more dominant in victory and we’ll side with Mourinho’s men -1 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man Utd -1 Asian Handicap at 2.23

Wolves v Man City

August 25th, 9.30pm AEST

It’s been a difficult start to life in the Premier League for Wolves as they failed to beat 10-man Everton on the opening day whilst they were beaten 2-0 at Leicester last time out – who also went a man down after Vardy’s exit in the 66th minute. They face the toughest test of them all as they host a Man City side fresh from a 6-1 hammering of Huddersfield. The Citizens have won 17 of 20 away games since the start of last season, keeping a clean sheet in 11 of these and leading at the break in 12.

They’ve won seven of nine unbeaten trips to promoted teams since 2015/16 and they kept a clean sheet in five of the last seven of these. Indeed, they were far from emphatic in victories over Premier League newcomers last term as they won 1-0 at Newcastle, 2-1 at Huddersfield and 2-0 at Brighton so rather than siding with the Citizens on the Asian Handicap, the win to nil looks the best option here, particularly as City kept a clean sheet in six of their 10 trips to bottom-half opponents last term.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City Win to Nil at $2.05


Arsenal v West Ham

August 26th, 12.00am AEST

It’s been a baptism of fire for Unai Emery as he’s had Man City and Chelsea in his opening two games, but he’ll be hopeful of picking up his first points here as his side host the Hammers. After a summer of heavy expenditure, West Ham were thrashed 4-0 at Liverpool in their opening game whilst they disappointingly went down 2-1 after taking the lead at home to Bournemouth last time out.

For all their struggles last term, Arsenal had an excellent home record, especially if we exclude top-six opponents, as they won all 14 of their matches at the Emirates. Eight of these victories were without conceding while as many were by more than two goals. Indeed, they beat West Ham 4-1 here last term and we wouldn’t be surprised to see something similar. The Hammers also conceded four at Liverpool and Man Utd last term, while they’ve already repeated that trick at Anfield again this season and so we’re siding with the Gunners on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK- Arsenal -1.5 Asian Handicap at $1.99


Liverpool v Brighton

August 26th, 2.30am AEST

Liverpool are two from two this term having won their games by an aggregate of 6-0 but they host a Brighton side that are on a high after beating Man Utd 3-2 at home last time out. However, the Seagulls managed some impressive results at home against the top teams last term, beating Arsenal and Utd again at the Amex, but they lost all six of their trips to top-six opponents by an aggregate of 14-1.

Indeed, they were beaten 4-0 by Liverpool, who haven’t conceded in six at Anfield as 10 of their 13 home wins since the start of last seasons were without conceding. It’s hard to see past a comfortable victory for the hosts and so the question is what’s the best way of siding with Jurgen Klopp’s charges? Given the form of Van Dijk and the purchase of Alisson as well as their excellent recent home defensive record and being the only side with an immaculate defensive record so far this term, it’s the home win to nil that we prefer at a marginally bigger price than the -2 Asian Handicap, though we wouldn’t put anyone off backing both.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool Win to Nil at $1.76


Watford v Crystal Palace

August 26th, 10.30pm AEST

It’s been an excellent start for Watford, who’ve beaten Brighton 2-0 and won 3-1 at Burnley last time out. Next, they host a Palace side that were beaten 2-0 at home by Liverpool in their latest outing, having won 2-0 at Fulham in their opening game. That was the Eagles’ first defeat in eight games and against much easier opposition, they look a touch too big at the current odds.

The visitors have won three of five unbeaten road games, including a 0-0 draw here at the end of last season, whilst they’re W4-D6-L0 when travelling to bottom-half opponents since the start of last term. With that in mind, we think they can pick up at least a point here against a Watford side that we expect to struggle this season, despite their promising start.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Crystal Palace 0 Asian Handicap at $2.1


Newcastle v Chelsea

August 27th, 1.00am AEST

Maurizio Sarri’s had an excellent start to his Chelsea tenure and he’s already delivered the attacking brand of football expected, as the Blues have scored six goals across their two victories. Newcastle on the other hand, are yet to win, as they were beaten 2-1 at home to Spurs on the opening weekend, while they played out a goalless draw in Cardiff last time out.

Eden Hazard is edging towards full fitness having been reduced to a substitute’s role so far and that spells danger for Newcastle because he’s looked electric in his 43 minutes of game time. Should Chelsea triumph though, it’s likely to be a narrow victory as Newcastle haven’t lost any of their last six home games against top-six opponents by more than a single goal. 2-1 was the score in three of Chelsea’s 10 away wins last term and we wouldn’t put anyone off chancing that outcome again but we’re backing the Chelsea win by one goal to keep the 1-0 on side, as that’s been the case in all Newcastle’s last five defeats at St James’ Park.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea Win by One Goal at $3.3


Manchester United v Tottenham

August 28th, 5.00am AEST

Man Utd were beaten 3-2 at Brighton last time out and so are on something of a retrieval mission as they host Spurs, who made it two from two with their 3-1 victory over Fulham. Utd are a very different proposition at home though, as they’ve now won 16 of 20 games at Old Trafford since the start of last season, including four of five games against fellow top-six opponents with the exception against Man City. They’re generally tight encounters, as you’d expect under Mourinho, with each of their four victories with the Big Six by just a single goal. Indeed, Spurs have lost each of their four visits to Old Trafford since the start of the 2014/15 season, with the last three of these finishing 1-0.

Spurs lost at both Manchester clubs and Arsenal last term and so Utd look a massive price to us. They have to be the bet at the prices and we may well see a repeat of last season when Utd followed up a 2-1 defeat at Huddersfield with a 1-0 home win over Spurs themselves. Indeed, Utd also bounced back from a 0-1 defeat at Newcastle last term, before going on to beat Chelsea 2-1 at Old Trafford in their next game and so we’re siding with Mourinho’s men and for those looking for something at a slightly bigger price, we’d recommend the 1-0 correct score or the Utd Win by one goal.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man United to Win at 2.70

Crystal Palace v Liverpool

August 21st, 5.00am AEST

Both these sides started off with victories as Palace won 2-0 at Fulham whilst Liverpool cruised to a 4-0 triumph at home to West Ham. That result continues an excellent run for Palace as they’ve won their last four and are unbeaten seven. Indeed, Liverpool are the last side to beat them as they came from behind to win 2-1 at Selhurst Park. We expect this to be a similarly close-fought encounter and so are surprised to see Liverpool at a shorter price here than Utd are at Brighton.

Palace have lost only five of 17 home games under Roy Hodgson (W7-D5-L5) and managed a win over Chelsea and a draw with City last term, whilst Liverpool and Utd came from behind to win by a single goal and Spurs edged them out 1-0 in a close encounter too. Liverpool failed to win at the likes of West Brom, Swansea, Newcastle and Watford last term and so they look too short to us. They’ve won only two of their last 10 away games by more than one goal, both at bottom-six opponents, and so we’re siding with Palace on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Crystal Palace +1.25 Asian Handicap at 1.91


Everton v Southhampton

August 19th, 12.00am AEST

Everton were impressive on the opening day, despite not getting a win at Wolves, as they overcame a red card to Phil Jagielka in the first half to take a 2-1 lead before Wolves netted an 80th minute equaliser. Southampton were involved in a far less entertaining encounter as they drew 0-0 at home to Burnley as they continue to struggle for goals.

For all their problems last term, Everton won 10 of their 19 home games and if we exclude sides that finished above them they were W10-D2-L0. The Saints won only three times on their travels last term, with two coming against relegated West Brom and Swansea and another over Palace during their disastrous start to the season, as they netted just 17 away goals in total. Everton have an excellent record in this fixture at Goodison Park, winning four of six unbeaten meetings since 2012/13 and we’re expecting them to make it five from seven, inspired by Richarlison, who’s hit the ground running for his new club.

Betting Strategy

 BACK- Everton to Win at 2.04


Tottenham v Fulham

August 19th, 12.00am AEST

It was a disappointing return to the Premier League for Fulham, who were beaten 2-0 on the opening day at home to Crystal Palace and they face a far trickier London derby here as they travel to Spurs, who managed to win 2-1 at Newcastle despite concerns that some of their players involved in the latter stages of the World Cup would be undercooked.

With their new stadium not quite ready it takes place at Wembley where Spurs won 13 of their 19 games last term and they have an excellent record against promoted teams, having won 27 of 30 unbeaten games against such teams since 2013/14 and all 15 at home, remarkably keeping 12 clean sheets across these and leading at the break in nine of these victories. Indeed, eight of the nine wins since 2015/16 were without conceding and so we’re backing Spurs to win to nil, as they’ve done in six of their last eight games at Wembley.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs to Win to Nil at 2.15


Chelsea v Arsenal

August 19th, 2.30am AEST

It was a tough start for Unai Emery as his side were beaten 2-0 at the Emirates by Man City and it doesn’t get any easier for them as they travel to Chelsea, who began their campaign with a comfy 3-0 win at Huddersfield. Arsenal failed to win on the road in 2018 before they won at Huddersfield on the final day last term and historically struggle when travelling to ‘Big Six’ sides as they’re W2-D7-L16 in such fixtures since 2013/14 and have lost eight of 10 winless games since 2016/17.

Five of those eight defeats were by more than one goal whilst they have a poor record at Stamford Bridge in particular. They’ve lost seven of nine trips here since 2009/10, with six of those defeats by more than one goal as they failed to score in six and trailed at the break in seven. Chelsea, on the other hand, have won 15 of 25 home matches against Big Six opponents since 2013/14 and so we’re with the Blues in this one.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea -0.75 Asian Handicap at 2.07


Man City v Huddersfield

August 19th, 10.30pm AEST

Man City weren’t at their best on the opening day but they nonetheless won 2-0 at Arsenal and they should have no problems making it two from two as they host a Huddersfield side that were thumped 3-0 at home to Chelsea. City won 16 of 19 home games last term and whilst Huddersfield were one of the teams that stopped the Citizens from winning at the Etihad, the title was already wrapped up and the Terriers were fighting for their survival, so we can’t see them repeating the feat.

When hosting the bottom-three, City won 7-2 against Stoke, West Brom 3-0 and Swansea 5-0 and that’s certainly looking like where Huddersfield will end up. David Wagner’s men failed to score at five of the top six last term and went down 3-0 at Liverpool and 5-0 at Arsenal, and so we’re expecting another heavy defeat for them here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City -2.75 Asian Handicap at 1.87


Brighton v Manchester United

August 20th, 1.00am AEST

It was a disappointing start for Brighton as they went down 2-0 at Watford, meaning they have just one win in their last 10 games going back to the end of last season. Utd started with a comfy enough victory over Leicester and will be seeking to avenge a 1-0 defeat here last term. We’re surprised to see Utd as big a price as they are to do so and we think that away trips to the lesser sides is an area that they’ll improve upon this term.

They often struggled to break down bottom-six sides on the road last term as they lost at Huddersfield too and drew at Stoke, but with Sanchez now at the club and Pogba playing in a more advanced position, they have the quality to break down stubborn defences. Whilst Brighton had some success against the top teams at the Amex last term, they were beaten 2-0 by City, 5-1 by Liverpool and 4-0 by Chelsea. Whilst Utd may not be that emphatic in victory, we do expect them to pick up the three points.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man United to Win at 1.80

Newcastle v Tottenham

August 11th, 9.30pm AEST

Spurs won 2-0 at St. James’ Park on the opening day last term but Newcastle managed some excellent results hosting the top teams thereafter as they beat Man Utd, Arsenal and Chelsea, drew against Liverpool, whilst they were edged out 1-0 by Man City. With that in mind, Spurs look a touch short, particularly with question marks over the fitness of the likes of Lloris, Alderweireld, Vertonghen, Rose, Trippier, Dier, Dembele, Alli and Kane after each were part of sides that made it to the final weekend of the World Cup.

What’s more, Spurs have won only three of 10 opening day away games since 2006/07, losing six of them, and so at the prices we’re looking to take them on. Newcastle have lost only three of 11 opening day home games since 1995/96 and with Rafa Benitez working out how to get results against the top teams last term, we’re backing the Magpies to pick up at least a point.

Betting Strategy

 LAY – Spurs at 2.1


Huddersfield v Chelsea

August 12th, 12am AEST

Huddersfield are many people’s fancy to go down this term and they have a tough assignment to kick things off as they host Chelsea. However, the Terriers proved they were capable of beating the top teams here last term as they beat Utd 2-1. We fancy there could be another upset as they host a Chelsea side likely to be without what are arguably their three best player s in Hazard, Kante and Courtois after each went deep into the World Cup.

Chelsea have a recent history of starting slowly too as they went down 3-2 at home to Burnley last term, only won curtesy of a late winner over West Ham the year before, whilst they drew 2-2 at Stamford Bridge against Swansea on the opening day in 2015/16. They appear on the short side after what’s been a turbulent summer with doubts over the futures of Hazard and Courtois, let alone their participation in this game. Huddersfield look to have spent well in the transfer window having laid out over £40m at the time of writing and we wouldn’t be as down on their chances as others are.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Huddersfield +1 Asian Handicap at 1.96


Wolves v Everton

August 12th, 2.30am AEST

Wolves are widely expected to have a good season after they won the Championship fairly comfortably last term and brought in the likes of Rui Patricio and Joao Moutinho in the transfer window. However, against proven Premier League opposition in Everton, they look on the short side. Marco Silva looks a good appointment after he did better than most could with a dire Hull side and results with Watford only started to suffer after the instability of being linked with a move to pastures new. Meanwhile, he’s been backed substantially in the transfer window with Digne and Richarlison coming in.

Promoted teams have won only five of 30 opening games since 2008/09 and if we only look at opening fixtures against teams that finished in the top half in the season prior, their record in that period is W1-D2-L14. Everton won five of six unbeaten games against promoted teams last term, conceding just once across these, whilst they’ve remarkably lost just one of 24 matches against such sides since 2014/15 and so we’re looking to side with the Toffees.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Everton +0.25 Asian Handicap at 1.93


Liverpool v West Ham

August 12th, 10.30pm AEST

Expectations are high for West Ham after the appointment of Manuel Pellegrini and a busy transfer window that has seen Felipe Anderson, Issa Diop and Andriy Yarmolenko all join the club, whilst Jack Wilshere could prove a shrewd addition on a free transfer. A trip to Anfield on the opening day is about as tough as it gets though and will be a good indicator of where they are as a club.

Liverpool were W12-D7-L0 at Anfield last term and contrary to popular belief were excellent defensively as they kept a clean sheet in 12 of these matches. West Ham did manage to get some positive results at the top teams though as they drew at Chelsea and Spurs whilst they came close to upsetting City before they came from behind to win 2-1. Liverpool haven’t won by more than one goal on the opening day since way back in 1994/95 and so the new-look Hammers ae worth siding with +1.5 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – West Ham +1.5 Asian Handicap at 2.24


Arsenal v Manchester City

August 13th, 1am AEST

It’s a baptism of fire for Unai Emery as he begins his tenure by hosting champions Man City, who are odds-on to retain their title. For all their struggles last term, the Gunners had an excellent W15-D2-L2 record at the Emirates, though their defeats did come against the Manchester clubs. That was one of 16 away wins for City last term and the Citizens are generally excellent starters, having won their opening game in each of the last seven seasons with a combined score of 20-3.

Arsenal, on the other hand, have won only two of eight opening matches since 2010/11, including home defeats against Liverpool, West Ham and Aston Villa. They have concerns in defence with Kolasinac, Monreal and Koscielny all unlikely to feature and that leaves them short at left back, with it not immediately obvious who could step in. City won 3-0 here last term and whilst they may not be as emphatic in victory here, they look a fair price to kick off the campaign with a win.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City Win at 2.02


Manchester United v Leicester

August 11th, 5am AEST

United enter the season under a cloud following some strange comments from Mourinho in pre-season but they have a relatively straightforward assignment to start the season as they host a Mahrez-less Leicester. The Red Devils had an excellent home record last term as they won 15 of their 19 games (W15-D2-L2), including each of their first five without conceding.

Indeed, one of those was a 2-0 win over Leicester themselves and we could envisage something similar here. The Foxes have picked up only two points from 12 trips to top-six opponents since 2016/17, conceding more than twice in half of these matches. Jamie Vardy and Harry Maguire are unlikely to feature having only returned to training this week and so they may well struggle to challenge the Utd back line. We like both the win to nil and Utd -1 on the Asian Handicap but with Leicester managing to net in eight of those 12 trips to the Big Six, we’ll opt for the latter.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man Utd -1 Asian Handicap at 1.86


Extra Betting Resources

If you’re looking to improve your Soccer Betting, we recommend checking out the following resources as well:


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