Your Expert Soccer Predictions for EPL 2018/19

They’re veterans of the Betfair Hub and we’re happy to announce that Football Formlabs are giving their Soccer Predictions for the 2018/19 Premier League season. With one of the most extensive football databases on the market, you can be sure that each and every bet recommendation is backed up by significant statistical evidence.

For those new to The Betfair Hub, Form Labs provided expert analysis on every single game over the 2018 World Cup. You can view their insight here.

Go where the value is for the English Premier League and head to the Betfair Exchange.

What Can You Expect This Season?

Six comprehensive match previews each and every week which will be focusing predominantly on the Big Six. To avoid confusion, that is, Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Tottenham.

When these teams clash with each other we will replace it with a match preview from the remaining pool of games.

Form Labs will also provide us with matchday content for marquee clashes in the Champions and Europa League when these tournaments kickoff later this year.

If you missed their full 2018/19 Season Preview it’s not too late. It can be viewed here.

Lastly, be sure to check out the Betfair Hub and the Betfair Exchange for up to the minute Premier League and football odds.

Man City v Everton

December 15th, 11.30am AEDT

Man City bounced straight back from their 2-0 defeat at Stamford Bridge with victory over Hoffenheim to secure top spot in their Champions League group. However, it wasn’t plain sailing as they had to come from behind to win 2-1 and now Pep Guardiola has a few more injury concerns.

They’d managed without the likes of Sergio Aguero and Kevin de Bruyne in recent weeks until they came undone at Chelsea, and although the former could return, David Silva and John Stones have joined de Bruyne in the physio room while Fernandinho is a doubt.

Arguably, no one has been more influential in the club’s recent rise to the top than Silva. Since 2013/14, the Citizens have scored 15% fewer goals when he’s not started, while their win ratio drops from 70% to 59% without him over the same period.

We’re not suggesting Everton are going to come away with all three points, but it looks a good opportunity to side with them on the handicap.

They’ve been steadily improving under Marco Silva and although they’re winless in three, that could have been a different story had Gylfi Sigurdsson stuck his penalty away on Monday night against Watford. On the face of it, a W1-D3-L3 away record this season doesn’t look great, but all seven trips have been to teams in the top half.

Only one of the defeats has been by more than one goal – a 2-0 loss at the Emirates where they had the better of the chances – as they’ve put up bold efforts at Anfield and Stamford Bridge. They held Chelsea to a goalless draw and would have done the same in the Merseyside Derby if it wasn’t for Jordan Pickford’s bizarre incident in injury-time.

This is major improvement on their past trips to the best teams and we think the Toffees can keep it respectable. Indeed, for all their dominance, the only teams City have beaten by more than two goal this term are all in the bottom-half.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Everton +2.0 Asian Handicap at 1.91

Tottenham v Burnley

December 16th, 2.00am AEDT

Spurs return from Barcelona having achieved their mission of qualification from the group stages of the Champions League. Their only defeats in their last 18 in all competitions have been against Arsenal, Man City and hosting Barca, as they’ve won 12 of the remaining 15, with the draws at PSV and the Camp Nou in the Champions League and against Watford at Stadium MK in the Carabao Cup.

We’re wary of tired legs but Burnley aren’t the side to take advantage and we feel Mauricio Pochettino is more likely to give Harry Kane and co a rest in the Carabao Cup midweek rather than this fixture.

The Clarets produced a display more akin with their form last season with a gritty 1-0 victory over Brighton. However, the Seagulls are notoriously poor travellers and Sean Dyche’s men are still yet to win the shot count this season, and that has been especially costly against the better sides.

In their four fixtures with the Big Six outfits this term, they’ve lost by an aggregate scoreline of 14-1, with each defeat by at least a two-goal margin. Spurs have a fantastic record of 33 victories from 41 matches against bottom-six sides since 2015/16, with 24 of these by at least two clear goals. At home, it’s 17 victories from 20, with 13 by two or more strikes and eight by three or more.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs -2.0 Asian Handicap at 1.93

Fulham v West Ham

December 16th, 4.30am AEDT

After an encouraging start to life under Claudio Ranieri with four points hosting Southampton and Leicester and a decent showing in defeat at Chelsea, Fulham took a backwards step as the first side to make Man Utd look like a decent outfit in a while.

It was another defensive car crash of a performance as they’ve now conceded eight more goals than any other side in the league. They’re still without a clean sheet and are averaging 2.5 goals a game against them, so it looks the wrong time to be taking on an in-form Hammers side.

Three consecutive victories, where they’ve netted three time in each, means West Ham lie just five points off sixth place. Manuel Pellegrini has managed to get his talented squad playing some great football and even with the likes of Marko Arnautovic and Andriy Yarmolenko injured, Chicharito, and in particular, Felipe Anderson have taken up the mantel.

With only two clean sheets themselves, this has goals written all over it. Indeed, 17 of the Hammers 26 road games since the start of last season have had at least three strikes, while Fulham have shown the ability to get on the scoresheet themselves, resulting in 10 of their last 15 also going over this line.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 1.69

Brighton v Chelsea

December 17th, 12.30am AEDT

Brighton’s record of only five defeats from 26 home matches is respectable in anyone’s book, but it’s noticeable that four of these came against teams of real quality – City, Liverpool, Chelsea, and Spurs.

For as plucky as they can be under Chris Hughton, during their time in the Premier League they’ve gone W0-D1-L10 when facing the current top four, with eight of those defeats by a two-goal margin.

Having just downed the champions least weekend, it seems the wrong time for the Seagulls to be taking on a Chelsea side that will now be full of confidence.

Maurizio Sarri has the option to rest players in their midweek assignment away in Hungary as they’ve already safely qualified. They may have lost their last two on the road, but Spurs are in a great spell of form while Wolves shouldn’t be sniffed at having also taken points off the likes of City, United, Arsenal and Everton this season.

Against weaker opponents, the Blues have taken no prisoners, winning seven of eight unbeaten matches against bottom-half teams. Six of these victories were by at least a two-goal margin and with Shane Duffy suspended for the hosts, back the Blues to cover the handicap again.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea -1.5 Asian Handicap at 2.34

Southampton v Arsenal

December 17th, 12.30am AEDT

It was a losing start for Ralph Hasenhuttl as his side went down 1-0 at Cardiff in a dour game. It was yet another defensive mistake that cost them and it’s clear the Austrian has a lot to work on to sure them up at the back. Despite having a full week with his new troops, it might not be enough time to deal with this deadly Gunners attack.

Only Man City have outscored Unai Emery’s men this season and on the road, they’ve been particularly effective by netting at least twice in all seven games. In fact, both teams have scored in each as all seven have had at least three strikes, with five featuring four or more.

Further, the Saints have looks particularly suspect against the Big Six this term, shipping 17 goals in five such matches, with Over 2.5 Goals landing in each.

However, we’re reluctant to back Arsenal outright as they’ve shared the spoils in two of their last three on the road. Emery also has a selection (or lack of) headache at the back with Rob Holding out for the season and recent centre-back pairing Sokratis and Shkodran Mustafi both suspended.

Without the German, they’re just W5-D3-L5 since the start of last season and 10 of these had three or more strikes. Although Nacho Monreal and Laurent Koscielny are returning form lay-offs, both will be short of match fitness.

The Saints have proven they can score against the better teams, with goals against Spurs and the two Manchester clubs recently, so ‘overs’ looks banker material in this one.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 1.67

Liverpool v Man Utd

December 17th, 3.00am AEDT

After results last weekend, Liverpool are back at the top of the Premier League for the first time since September. They host fierce rivals Man Utd, and like Man City did when dominating United in the Manchester Derby a few weeks back, the challenge for Liverpool is to see whether they can replicate this.

Even though the Red Devils’ first victory in five in the league finished 4-1 in their favour, it’s nothing to get too excited about as it came against basement-dwellers Fulham. Midweek, they reverted to type, conceding early at Valencia and being dominated for the majority of the game before rallying late on.

Starting games poorly has been such a real feature of United’s play this season, that they’ve only scored first in three of their last 15 in all competitions. Specifically in the league, they’ve conceded first in nine of their 16 outings and although they’ve gone on to lose just four of these, they’re unlikely to get away with it at Anfield.

Indeed, one of Liverpool’s great strengths has been holding onto leads this season and they’ve done the half-time/full-time double in five of their seven matches at home, while that improves to 10 of their last 13 here going back into last term.

Much of Liverpool’s improvement has been down to their defence, with Virgil Van Dijk and Allison making all the difference. Since the Dutchman arrived, they’ve kept 11 clean sheets in his 14 home matches and even though Dejan Lovren has to be drafted in with injuries to Joe Gomez and Joel Matip, we’re not worried as long as he has Van Dijk by his side.

Mourinho has managed a pair of 0-0 draws in his two trips here as United manager, but the gulf between the two teams is ever-widening and we expect Klopp’s charges to put in a dominant display.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool HT/FT at 2.45

Bournemouth v Liverpool

December 8th, 11.30pm AEDT

Jurgen Klopp opted to not start any of his attacking trio of Sadio Mane, Roberto Firmino and Mo Salah for the first time since May 2017 in their midweek fixture with Burnley. That gamble paid off thanks to some fortune and with a 3-1 victory to add to their already 11 wins from 14 unbeaten matches. Meanwhile, Bournemouth started the season with a very respectable six wins from their opening 10 matches and although they followed that with four straight losses, they managed to end that winless run when hosting Huddersfield last time out. Indeed, those four defeats don’t look quite as bad when considering two of them were narrow 2-1 losses at Dean Court to Arsenal and Man Utd, while a 3-1 defeat at the Etihad is nothing to be ashamed of.

Eddie Howe’s men look vulnerable here when looking at their record against the elite teams. They’ve lost 31 of 40 matches against the ‘Big Six’ during their time in the Premier League, including 15 of 20 on home turf, so once again we see them falling short. They did manage to net in 13 of these home matches, whilst both sides have netted in six of their last seven here against all sides. Five of the Reds’ six goals conceded this term have come on the road, and with Callum Wilson in red hot form for the hosts, we like the Liverpool win and both teams to score.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool & BTTS at 3.04

Arsenal v Huddersfield

December 9th, 2.00am AEDT

Arsenal were unable to back up their impressive performance in the North London Derby with a victory at Old Trafford, but a point wasn’t a bad result. Back in the comforts of the Emirates and against weaker opposition, this should be a routine victory for Unai Emery’s men. Indeed, they’ve won 18 of 19 unbeaten matches here since the start of last season when excluding the ‘Big Six’, with 14 of these by at least a two-goal margin.

Huddersfield have certainly improved to go W2-D1-L2 in their last five, but the fixture list has been kind with none of the opposition a top side. They’ve lost their four matches this term against top-five opposition by an aggregate of 12-1, and since their promotion it’s 12 losses in 14. They failed to score in nine of these defeats while nine where also by a two-goal margin and six by three or more. Given the Gunners have kept just two cleans sheets this term, we’ll side with them on the handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Arsenal -1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.86

Cardiff v Southampton

December 9th, 2.00am AEDT

Ralph Hasenhuttl takes over for his first game in charge at Southampton and it’s a massive one against relegation rivals Cardiff. It’s no easy task either as Neil Warnock’s men have won three of their last four at home. Having looked short-changed up front in the early part of the season, the Bluebirds have improved drastically, netting eight times across these three victories. However, they’re without a clean sheet in 12 and their only two shut outs this season where when both Huddersfield and Newcastle were reduced to 10-men.

Hasenhuttl led RB Leipzig to finishes of 2nd and 6th in the Bundesliga in his last managerial stint, but he faces a very different task with the struggling Saints. He has a reputation for high pressing football and as a result 63% of his matches in charge at Leipzig saw at least three goals. However, it’s Southampton’s defence that really needs work on the training ground after another dismal display at Wembley. They’ve conceded at least twice in 10 of their 15 matches this term, but going the other way, the Austrian has something to work with as the Saints have recently netted twice against Fulham, twice against United and although they lost 3-1 at Spurs, Hugo Lloris was awarded man of the match. As a result, both teams have score in their last five which looks the way to go in this one.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Both teams to score at 1.85

Man Utd v Fulham

December 9th, 2.00am AEDT

Man Utd’s winless run stretched to four games and although they were expected to lose to Man City and a point against Arsenal was a decent result, the two draws with Palace and Southampton would put us off adding them to any accas this weekend. The atmosphere has been particularly toxic at Old Trafford and although Fulham have lost seven of eight winless away matches this season, there is reason to be cheerful for the London club.

Improvements have been made under Claudio Ranieri as they’ve picked up four points form two home games, while their defeat at Stamford Bridge was a spirited display. The five goals they’ve conceded under ‘The Tinkerman’ is actually an improvement from before, highlighting just how defensively poor they have been as Barnsley back in 1997/98 are the only team to have shipped more goals at this stage of a Premier League season. The Cottagers certainly have the capabilities to hurt United going the other way though, especially with the Red Devils keeping just two cleans so far this term.

Mourinho’s charges had a hard game against Arsenal on Wednesday night and although we’re tempted to throw a dart at Fulham after Palace came here last week and had the better of the 0-0 draw, we’re slightly reluctant given their defensive issues. So instead, we’ll go for a more conservative play of Fulham +1.0 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Fulham +1.0 Asian Handicap at 2.8

Chelsea v Man City

December 9th, 4.30am AEDT

Chelsea have started to encounter major tactical problems as N’Golo Kante continues to struggle out of position, while teams have worked out an effective means of curtailing the influence of Jorginho with the high press installed most vigorously by Spurs. Aside from a Carabao Cup win and a league stalemate with Liverpool over the space of four days back in September, the Blues have found life tough against the better teams. In addition to being downed by Spurs, they were fortunate to walk away with a point when Man Utd came to town, while an early season victory over Arsenal could have been much different if not for the Gunners’ profligacy on that occasion.

City demonstrated their superiority by doing the double over Chelsea last term and brushed them aside in the Community Shield back in August, while they’ve now gone W11-D1-L2 against fellow ‘Big Six’ outfits since the start of last season in the Premier League. They’ve now won 14 of 16 unbeaten matches across all competitions since they last tasted defeat, netting an average of over three goals per game, and should have too much for a Chelsea side that are just W2-D1-L2 over their last five – with the two victories coming at home to Greek outfit PAOK and rock-bottom Fulham.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City to win at 1.94

Leicester v Tottenham

December 9th, 6.45am AEDT

Spurs got themselves back to winning ways on Wednesday night after going down 4-2 to Arsenal in the North London derby last weekend. That means they have now won seven of their last eight games in all competitions, including victories over big guns Chelsea and Inter. Leicester on the other hand, have won only two of their last nine games in all competitions and although they remain unbeaten across the last seven of these, they still lost their only two games when taking on top-eight opposition – Arsenal and Everton – while they failed to beat both the bottom two sides. Indeed, against those top-eight teams they have lost each of their five matches this term while against the ‘Big Six’ alone they have lost 14 of their last 18 since April 2017, winning only twice.

Mauricio Pochettino’s men will already have an eye on their must-win Champions League match at the Nou Camp on Tuesday and so he may opt to rotate a few players. However, that shouldn’t affect their performance too much as they seem to always get the job done against weaker opposition. Indeed, if we exclude fixtures with their top-five clubs, they’ve won 10 of 11 matches this term, so look a decent price in the outright.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs Win at 1.97

Watford v Man City

December 5th, 7.00am AEDT

It’s now 13 wins from 15 unbeaten matches for City since their opening day defeat in the Champions League, where they’ve won by at least two clear goals in 11 and by at least three goals in seven. In fact, they’ve scored an average of four per game across their last six, winning by at least a four-goal margin in half of these as they’ve really ramped up their production in the final third.

The wheels have come off for Watford of late with their only victories in their last 10 league matches coming against Huddersfield and Wolves. They’ve been particularly disappointing in their encounters with top-half sides, losing 4-0, 3-0 and 2-0 to Bournemouth, Liverpool and Leicester in their last three such fixtures. They’ve also been dreadful when facing ‘Big Six’ teams, losing seven of their last eight, while their last 12 hosting those outfits have seen them concede four times on four occasions. Unsurprisingly, two of those were inflicted by City themselves as they’ve won 5-0 and 6-0 in the last two seasons at Vicarage Road, and in fact Guardiola has masterminded a 16-1 aggregate score in four clashes with Watford home or away since he arrived on these shores.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City -2.0 Asian Handicap at 2.53

Burnley v Liverpool

December 6th, 6.45am AEDT

Burnley’s winless streak stretched to seven games with a dismal display at Selhurst Park. It was their fifth defeat in this run as they’re really struggling at both ends of the pitch this term. Indeed, they’ve been outshot by every opponent they’ve faced so far, and while that is expected against the elite teams, even those around them are out-gunning them.

They lost the shot-count 20-3 to Cardiff, 18-6 to Huddersfield, 22-6 to West Ham and 29-4 most recently to Palace. So, these are worrying times for Sean Dyche with Liverpool coming to town, especially with City and Chelsea hammering them 5-0 and 4-0 respectively during this winless run.

The Merseyside derby provided late drama and Liverpool were lucky to escape with all three points. However, they got over the line and the result means they’ve won all 11 matches this season when excluding fellow top-four sides.

Six of these were by at least two clear goals and eight were to nil and with the Reds’ defence impressing more than their attack this term, we’ll side with the latter here. Indeed, Burnley have lost without scoring in all three encounters with ‘Big Six’ sides this term, and in seven of their last 10 hosting such opponents.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool to Win to Nil at $2

Everton v Newcastle

December 6th, 6.45am AEDT

Jordan Pickford won’t look back on the Merseyside derby with any fondness, but Marco Silva can take pride in his teams’ performance overall and they deserved more for their efforts. They should continue their push for a top-six finish here and in their last eight, the only times they’ve failed to win have been in their three trips to traditional ‘Big Six’ outfits.

At Goodison, they’ve had much easier fixtures, winning five of seven as they all came against bottom-half teams. They’ve now won 21 of 27 such encounters since 2016/17, with 12 of these to nil and 14 by at least two clear goals.

Newcastle were thoroughly outclassed by West Ham, with their three-match winning streak prior perhaps a false dawn. Indeed, they were a tad fortunate to defeat both Watford and Bournemouth at home, while their away success is a greater reflection of how poor Burnley are.

They’ve only managed dull goalless draws at the likes of Southampton, Palace and Cardiff and without one of their best attackers, Matt Ritchie, they could struggle here. Indeed, since the start of last season, they’ve lost six of seven winless games without the Scot, netting just four times.

Whereas they were slightly frantic in the first part of the season, Marco Silva’s side are starting to look a lot more settled and organised. The Barcelona trio are starting to prove their worth with Andre Gomes ruling the midfield, while Lucas Digne and Yerry Mina have improved them immensely at the back.

The latter in particularly has had a major impact as the freak goal they conceded at Anfield is the first in the three matches where he’s been involved. With this in mind, the home win to nil looks the best bet.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Everton to Win to Nil at $2.55

Wolves v Chelsea

December 6th, 6.45am AEDT

After an encouraging 1-1 draw at the Emirates, Wolves have since suffered a couple of damaging defeats against Huddersfield and Cardiff. That point at Arsenal is their only one in their last six, which is in stark contrast to their first eight games where they amassed 15 points.

They even held Man City at Molineux during that period, but their struggles of late has seen them strike just four times in their last six and ship 11 goals.

To make matters worse, their playmaker and midfield general Ruben Neves is suspended, and he’s played every minute for them this term, completing nearly 100 more passes than any other teammate.

Despite not being the most convincing, Chelsea got back to winning ways with a 2-0 victory over Fulham. They’ve proven very efficient against weaker sides under Mauricio Sarri, winning seven of eight unbeaten matches against bottom-half teams this season, with six of these successes by at least a two-goal margin.

Furthermore, the Blues have gone W11-D2-L1 against promoted teams since 2016/17, and look excellent value for all three points.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea to Win at $1.80

Man Utd v Arsenal

December 6th, 7.00am AEDT

United are facing a terrible injury crisis at the back and it remains to be seen who starts. They’ll definitely be without their most impressive defender this term in Victor Lindelof, while they went with a defensive back five featuring Scott McTominay and Nemanja Matic alongside Phil Jones in their 2-2 draw with the Saints.

Meanwhile, the Gunners can take their unbeaten streak to 20 games should they avoid defeat here, with their latest 4-2 victory over Spurs adding to the sense that they’re ready to be competitive against fellow ‘Big Six’ outfits after registering a stalemate with Liverpool at the beginning of November.

United have actually achieved more victories on the road than at Old Trafford in all competitions this season as the toxic atmosphere at the club grows by the day. They’ve actually failed to find the net in four of their last nine in front of their own fans and given their current defensive issues, they’ll need to address that to stand a chance here with the Gunners in fine fettle going forwards.

They’ve scored an average of 2.7 goals per game on the road in the league this term, with Aaron Ramsey, Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang all linking well – especially once Unai Emery switched to a 3-4-1-2 in the second half against Spurs as the trio made runs to stretch their opponent’s backline.

United’s rearguard doesn’t look equipped to cope with such movement at present and the Gunners look well placed to record a first victory at Old Trafford in over a decade.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Arsenal 0 Asian Handicap at $2.22

Tottenham v Southampton

December 6th, 7.00am AEDT

It was a rollercoaster week for Spurs after the double high of defeating Chelsea and Inter at Wembley, followed by a stinging loss in a chaotic North London Derby.

Still, their only defeats in their last 15 in all competitions have been against Arsenal, Man City and Barcelona, as they’ve won 10 of the remaining 12 with the draws at PSV in the Champions League and against Watford at Stadium MK in the Carabao Cup.

They have a fantastic record of 32 victories from 40 matches against bottom-six sides since 2015/16, with 23 of these by at least two clear goals, while they won all 17 on home turf. Jan Vertonghen is suspended, but we’re not overly concerned with the Saints coming to town and Toby Alderweireld, who was controversially left out in the North London Derby, should slot straight in.

Southampton have had their fair share of turbulence after Mark Hughes was sacked in the aftermath of their 2-2 draw with Man Utd, with former keeper Kelvin Davis taking over on a temporary basis.

After just three victories in 22 matches the outcome was inevitable for Sparky, and while we expect an improvement down the line, it’s a lot to ask for Davies to get a result here.

He has had little time to fix the defensive issues that has seen them concede at least twice in nine of their last 13.

Furthermore, the Saints have lost by a combined score of 12-1 form three encounters with top-five sides this term and travelling to the same opposition since the start of last season, they’ve lost all seven trips.

One of their most influential players Mario Lamina is suspended while Danny Ings faces a late fitness test, so in all honesty, the rebuilding phase starts on Saturday at Cardiff rather than at Wembley on Wednesday night.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs -1.5 Asian Handicap at $2.13

Man City v Bournemouth

December 2nd, 2.00am AEDT

Bournemouth’s momentum has been stalled as they’ve lost their last three 2-1. Two of these were hosting ‘Big Six’ opposition, Arsenal and Man Utd, while they’ve also lost to Chelsea this campaign, meaning they’ve lost 13 of their 15 matches against the ‘Big Six’ since the start of last season.

While the Cherries play some attractive football under Eddie Howe, their style often leads to ample opportunities for their superior opposition, something they’ve particularly struggled with in trips to the Etihad. Since their promotion, they’ve lost by an aggregate score of 13-1 in their three trips here, losing all six halves in this time.

Man City may have been held 2-2 by Lyon midweek, but there’s been no stopping them at home domestically. They’ve brushed aside all seven opponents with ease, as six victories were by at least two clear goals, and their relentless attitude under Pep Guardiola has meant they’ve won every half bar one.

That was against a defence-minded Newcastle but shutting up shop is not Bournemouth’s style. Therefore, we fancy City to win both halves, as has been the case in 13 of their last 18 at home.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City to Win Both Halves at 1.85

Newcastle v West Ham

December 2nd, 2.00am AEDT

Having gone winless in their first 10, Newcastle have found their feet and made it three victories in a row with a 2-1 triumph at Burnley. Half of their first 10 matches were defeats to ‘Big Six’ sides, with each by just a single goal margin, so Rafa Benitez’s men are enjoying a spell against easier opposition.

Still, they beat top-half teams Bournemouth and Watford in their last two at St James’ Park, and confidence will be high as they welcome a brittle Hammers side.

West Ham are now below Newcastle in the table, with a leaky defence often costing them. They’ve kept just one clean sheet this term, but none on the road as they’re W1-D2-L3 on their travels. They’ve managed just one point in their two trips to bottom-half outfits Brighton and Huddersfield and visiting such sides since the start of last term, they’re a mediocre W2-D4-L5.

To make matters worse, the talismanic Marko Arnautovic unlikely to be fit for this encounter after hobbling off against Man City in the dying minutes.

The Austrian is their main goal threat and without him starting, the Hammers are just W2-D6-L4 since the start of last season (winless from seven on the road) as they’ve averaged 0.92 goals per game compared to 1.31 gpg in the 39 he’s started.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Newcastle 0 Asian Handicap at $1.80

Southhampton v Man Utd

December 2nd, 4.30am AEDT

Although Man Utd have had their troubles, there is still quality within their squad and they’re a tempting price to beat a woeful Southampton side. It won’t be long until Mark Hughes is out of a job if their poor form continues, with their sole success this season coming against a Palace side bereft of their talisman Wilfred Zaha.

However, there were major issues on the south coast long before Sparky’s arrival, as they’ve won just four matches this calendar year. Having said that, they’ve lost all six encounters with ‘Big Six’ outfits under Hughes, with the three such games this term yielding a combined score of 12-1.

Man Utd have actually won more times on the road than they have at home this season, as the pressure to perform isn’t as intense away form the Theatre of Dreams. They’ve netted 15 times on their way to winning five of their last eight in all competitions, with two of the exceptions at Man City and Chelsea.

They’ve gone to the likes of Watford and Bournemouth, far more impressive teams than Southampton, and even picked up three away at Juve. At the prices, we’re happy to side with the Red Devils.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man Utd to Win at $1.87

Chelsea v Fulham

December 2nd, 11.00pm AEDT

Chelsea host Fulham in the first south-west London derby since 2013/14, but in the past it’s a fixture the Blues have dominated. Mauricio Sarri’s men were humbled at Wembley by Spurs, highlighting that they’re top four contenders rather than title challengers.

However, they’ve mainly slipped up against better teams this term rather than weaker outfits, as they’ve won six of seven unbeaten matches against bottom-half opposition. The two victories in this spread to take place at Stamford Bridge still saw the Blues concede against Palace and Cardiff, so we fancy a rejuvenated Fulham to trouble the scorers.

‘Dilly-ding, Dilly-dong’, Claudio Ranieri made and immediate impact at Fulham, ending their six-match losing streak with victory over Southampton. Aleksandar Mitrovic and Ryan Sessegnon looked reinvigorated in attack, but they still conceded twice to a sorry Saints side, so there are major issues at the back for the Italian to iron out.

Indeed, they’re still without a clean sheet, shipping at least twice in 11 of their 13 encounters and Chelsea’s firepower should prove to strong, making a home win and both teams to score an appealing bet.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea Win and BTTS at $2.50

Arsenal v Tottenham

December 3rd, 1.05am AEDT

Spurs extended their winning streak in all competitions to six matches with a crucial victory over Inter Milan in the Champions League.

Their only defeats this season have been against Liverpool, Barcelona and Man City at home, as well as Watford and Inter away, while they recently humbled the previously unbeaten Chelsea at Wembley.

However, it is important to remember the Gunners’ own 17-game unbeaten run in all competitions prior to their Europa League clash, so the two sides are unsurprisingly difficult to split in the market.

Spurs have won seven of their eight away games, but none of these have been to fellow ‘Big Six’ teams and under Mauricio Pochettino they have a modest W3-D7-L11 record at such sides. However, three of the four trips to the Emirates have finished all-square, whereas they’d lost 12 of their previous 15 visits, highlighting the closing gap and even surpassing their north London rivals.

Indeed, they’ve finished above the Gunners in the past two seasons, while they were just one point behind them the year before.

While Unai Emery will have been pleased to maintain that unbeaten spell, they’ve certainly slowed down with four stalemates from their last six prior to a trip to Ukrainians Vorskla Poltava.

Under the Spaniard, they lost their opening two fixtures of the campaign against Man City and Chelsea, but it was obvious during those encounters that the Gunners were very much still adapting to his methods at that point, with Petr Cech cutting an uncomfortable figure on the ball as the Spaniard instructed his charges to play out from the back.

Since then, summer signing Bernd Leno has usurped the veteran between the sticks, and they’ve only faced one other ‘Big Six’ test as they had the better of their 1-1 draw hosting Liverpool. With these to two so evenly matched, the draw is the standout selection again.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Draw at $3.57

Liverpool v Everton

December 3rd, 3.15am AEDT

Jurgen Klopp will be looking for a reaction from his players in the Merseyside Derby following their disappointing result in Paris midweek.

It’s a fixture the red half of Merseyside have had the better of for a while now, last losing back in 2010/11. However, nine of the 15 encounters since then have finished all-square, including half of the eight to take place at Anfield.

Everton will be seeking to capitalize come Sunday having had the luxury of a week off to prepare for the derby. Despite Marco Silva’s reputation for an attacking brand of football, only the current top four can boast a better defensive record than Everton.

They’ve achieved clean sheets in their last two fixtures, which included a trip to Stamford Bridge, while their form has taken an upwards curve following a patchy spell in September. They’re W4-D1-L1 over their last six, with the draw against Chelsea and the defeat a narrow 2-1 loss at Old Trafford.

Although Liverpool are unbeaten in the league, they look too short to us at 1.4. While their defence deserve plenty of plaudits, with five clean sheets form six home fixtures this term, five of these have been against clubs 12th or below.

A goalless draw hosting Man City in the other fixture was a decent result but over the last two seasons, they were W9-D9-L0 hosting top-half teams with just five of these victories by more than one goal. Take out ‘Big Six’ opposition and it’s only four victories from eight unbeaten matches.

The Toffees are currently up in sixth and definitely look the best of the rest in the division, but given how rarely they win here, we’ll side with them on the handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Everton +1.25 Asian Handicap at $2.09

Man Utd v Crystal Palace

November 25th, 2.00am AEDT

Man Utd were put in their place in the Manchester Derby, but they face a much easier task here. Palace have lost eight of their last 11 and are just W1-D2-L12 when facing ‘Big Six’ teams since Roy Hodgson took charge.

Each of those positive results came at Selhurst Park as they lost their six such road trips by a combined score of 19-3. Furthermore, they have a host of key injuries with none more important than the absence of Wilfred Zaha. They’ve lost an incredible 14 on the bounce without the Ivorian, failing to score on 11 occasions.

Jose Mourinho has his share of injuries as well with Paul Pogba out, while Romelu Lukaku and Marcus Rashford are doubts. However, the in-form Anthony Martial is fit and so they should have too much quality.

As the Eagles are without their talisman, it’s the perfect opportunity for the Red Devils to keep what’s been a rare clean sheet this season. Indeed, United are W14-D3-L1 hosting teams outside the top six since the start of last season, with 10 of these victories to nil.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man Utd Win to Nil at 2.3

Watford v Liverpool

November 25th, 2.00am AEDT

Jurgen Klopp will be happy that the international break hasn’t been quite so detrimental to his squad this time around as only Jordan Henderson poses a slight injury concern.

They’ve won nine of 12 unbeaten matches this term, with those three draws against Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea, but this is far from a straight forward fixture. Firstly, Watford are enjoying a stellar season, and secondly, the Reds have haven’t been excelling on the road this term.

Indeed, since winning 2-0 at Selhurst Park in their opening away match, they’re just W3-D2-L2 on the road in all competitions, with the latest a defeat at Red Star Belgrade. Their only clean sheet in this run was at goal-shy Huddersfield and none of the victories were by more than a single goal.

The Hornets certainly have the tools to cause Jurgen Klopp’s men some problems. They only lost narrowly hosting Man Utd but beat Spurs, meaning they’re W3-D2-L3 at Vicarage Road against ‘Big Six’ opposition since the start of last season.

The other two defeats came prior to Javi Gracia’s arrival and he has made them a much more organised outfit. Moreover, Liverpool will have one eye on their must win engagement with PSG next week, so we’ll support the hosts on the handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Watford +1.00 Asian Handicap at $2.06

West Ham v Man City

November 25th, 2.00am AEDT

West Ham had to come from behind to earn a draw at second-from-bottom Huddersfield in their last match, trailing for 68 minutes in that game, leaving them with just the single victory in their last five league outings.

They’ve already hosted three of the ’Big Six’ and they’ve put up valiant efforts – beating Man Utd, drawing with Chelsea and narrowly going down 1-0 to Spurs. However, they tend to get played off the park on the spacious London Stadium pitch against the more fluid attacks of Liverpool and Man City.

Indeed, they shipped four goals in all four matches hosting those two over the past couple of seasons, while they were also thumped 4-0 at Anfield back in August. This City side are just going from strength to strength and so it could be another ugly afternoon for the Hammers.

Pep Guardiola’s charges have been firing on all cylinders for a while now. They’re on a run of 11 victories from 12 unbeaten games in all competitions with nine of these victories by at least a two-goal margin and incredibly four have been by five or more.

They’ve had some tough fixtures away from home in the league, visiting Spurs, Liverpool, Arsenal and Wolves already. Their other trip saw them put five past Cardiff and since Guardiola moved to Manchester, they’ve won 18 of 22 trips to bottom-half teams, with 12 of these victories by at least two goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City -2.0 Asian Handicap at $2.28

Tottenham v Chelsea

November 25th, 4.30am AEDT

Without setting the world alight, Spurs find themselves just a point off the unbeaten Chelsea as they’ve managed to find ways of winning tight games. However, all nine of their victories have been against sides 8th or below in the table as they’ve lost at Watford as well as hosting Liverpool and Man City.

We doubt the Blues will be able to come to Wembley and dominate like the latter two did, and so we should be in for an evenly matched contest.

Chelsea are unbeaten along with City and Liverpool, but we’re reluctant to get too carried away as they’ve actually drawn four of their last seven. They’ve won four of five unbeaten matches on the road, but the highest side they’ve visited is 13th-placed West Ham, which they drew.

The only teams to defeat Spurs in their last 12 across all competitions are Barcelona and Man City, and with little to split these two, we’re leaning towards the draw. Indeed, they share an identical W3-D2-L3 record in the league against each other since Pochettino pitched up in North London.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Draw at $3.42

Bournemouth v Arsenal

November 26th, 12.30am AEDT

This has the billing of an entertaining game and in the past it’s not disappointed with their last four encounters all featuring at least three goals. Bournemouth have gone down in their last two but were arguably unlucky to lose to both Man Utd and Newcastle having managed 32 shots across the two fixtures.

They did net in both defeats and behind Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City, they are the top scorers in the league. Indeed, nine of their 12 matches this term have had at least three goals, as have nine of their 13 games at the Vitality against the ‘Big Six’ since 2016/17, with six of these featuring at least four strikes.

Arsenal’s unbeaten run has stretched to 16 matches in all competitions, but Gunners fans will have been sweating over the fitness of their dynamic duo Lacazette and Aubameyang up top. However, both took place in training after the international break and are expected to be fit for Sunday, so their entertaining brand of football under Emery should continue.

This is especially the case on the road where both teams have score in all five of their trips and averaged 4.6 goals per game, as all but one went over the 3.5 Goals line with that exception against a Rafa Benitez’s defensive minded Newcastle.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 3.5 Goals at $2.23

Burnley v Newcastle

November 27th, 7.00am AEDT

This game doesn’t exactly get the juices flowing, but it is crucial in the relegation battle all the same. Newcastle made it back-to-back victories at St James’s Park prior to the international break as their season has finally kick-started following seven defeats form their opening 10 winless matches.

However, the fixture list hasn’t been kind and five of these losses were inflicted by ‘Big Six’ opponents, with each by just a single goal margin. On the road, if we take out their two trips to Manchester, then they’ve secured goalless draws at Cardiff, Palace and Southampton, meaning seven of their 13 trips to bottom-half opponents since the start of last season have finished all-square.

Burnley are winless from their last five outings as Man City, Chelsea and West Ham each got the better of them. They did also draw with both Huddersfield and Leicester in that time too, with their most recent outing finishing 0-0 at the King Power Stadium.

With that in mind, this looks likely to be another low-scoring encounter, especially as 10 of the Clarets last 11 matches hosting bottom-half sides have seen fewer than three goals.

Moreover, their two meetings with the Magpies last term finished 1-1 and 1-0 to in their favour, with the latter coming at Turf Moor, though the hosts are nowhere near reaching last seasons’ form and we can’t seem them prevailing in this one.

Therefore, the draw looks the most likely outcome with both managers likely to deploy their usual shut up shop tactics.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Draw at $3.10

Southampton v Watford

November 11th, 2.00am AEDT

Southampton were thumped 6-1 at the hands of Man City and although the result was expected, Mark Hughes finds himself under serious pressure after just one victory this season. Reports are suggesting that he’ll be given the sack if he doesn’t win here, so a W1-D3-L4 record at St Mary’s since he took over the reins doesn’t look good for Sparky.

The Saints’ penalty at the Etihad was their first goal in six outings, while at home they’ve lost to top-half outfits Chelsea and Leicester and only managed a point against the likes of Newcastle, Brighton and Burnley.

Watford were left to rue missed chances as they surprisingly lost at St James’ Park last time out. It was a game they dominated and should have won, but instead had their second away defeat of the season inflicted on them. The other was at the Emirates, but they’ve picked up seven points in trips to Wolves, Fulham and Burnley and even after the lapse up in Tyneside, should feel confident of getting a result here. Southampton are in a rut and lacking direction, so must be taken on as favourites.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Watford +0.25 Asian Handicap at $1.83

Crystal Palace v Tottenhamn

November 11th, 4.30am AEDT

Spurs will be buoyed coming into this fixture after staging a late comeback to beat PSV and keep their Champions League hopes alive. We mentioned last week that Spurs have struggled when facing real quality this season but they seem to get the job done against everyone else.

Indeed, excluding matches with Man City and Liverpool, they’ve won eight of nine games including all five trips to bottom-half teams.

Palace were unable to back up their impressive point at home to Arsenal as they lost at Stamford Bridge. However, their two goals against the Gunners were form the penalty spot as they’re yet to score form open play at Selhurst Park.

Since an early victory over the Blues early on in Roy Hodgson’s tenure, they’ve lost five of seven winless matches hosting the Big Six and we expect them to fall short again. Indeed, Spurs have prevailed 1-0 in their last four encounters with Palace and they should once again have just enough quality to overcome their hosts.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs Win at 1.84

Liverpool v Fullham

November 11th, 11.00pm AEDT

Unfortunately for Fulham, the Anfield crowd will be expecting a reaction from their team following a shock defeat in in Belgrade on Tuesday night. The Cottagers are the perfect opposition for Klopp’s men to restore some pride with their rearguard non-existent at times this season.

Excluding fixtures with fellow Big Six sides, the Reds have won all seven fixtures this term. Of the four of these that took place at home, three were by at least a three-goal margin, while since the start of last season, Liverpool have won by the same margin in six of eight matches hosting current bottom-six sides and last terms’ bottom-six finishers.

A fifth consecutive defeat has seen Fulham drop to the foot of the table. The latest would have hurt the most as they lost 1-0 to fellow strugglers Huddersfield, and although it was only the second time this season they’d not conceded at least twice, it was the Terriers’ first goal at home in eight.

Slavisa Jokanovic’s men shipped at least three goals in their previous four and while this was expected against Arsenal, the likes of Bournemouth, Cardiff and Everton took advantage of their lackadaisical defence. Mo Salah and co will be looking to fill their boots against the divisions worst defence.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool -2.5 Asian Handicap at 1.83

Chelsea v Everton

November 12th, 1.15am AEDT

Chelsea continue to keep pace with Liverpool and Man City and prior to their trip to BATE Borisov, they’ve won 13 of 16 unbeaten matches this season. That includes seven from nine on home turf as they’ve netted 22 goals, with the two exceptions against Liverpool and Man Utd.

With Alvaro Morata regaining some confidence with a brace against Palace and Eden Hazard to come back into the starting line-up, they should have too much quality for this Everton side that have only kept clean sheets against Palace and Fulham this term.

However, the Toffees do have their tails up after winning four of their last five, but the sole defeat was at Old Trafford and Marco Silva has now lost seven of eight winless trips to Big Six sides as a manager in the Premier League.

Moreover, Everton have a dire record in these types of matches, going down in 18 of 26 winless trips since 2014/15. They have however netted in nine of 12 such matches home or away since 2016/17, and so a home win and both teams to score looks the best way to go. Indeed, the Blues have kept just one clean sheet in their six league outings at the Bridge under Mauricio Sarri.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea Win and BTTS at 2.80

Arsenal v Wolves

November 12th, 3.30am AEDT

Arsenal proved their top four credentials with a well-earned draw hosting Liverpool last weekend and we fully expect them to return to wining ways, as they always do when hosting non-Big Six sides. Indeed, their winning streak at the Emirates in such encounters has stretched to a remarkable 23 games with 18 of these by at least two clear goals, including all four under Unai Emery.

Wolves initially settled quickly back into life in the Premier League, but their six-match unbeaten run has been followed by three consecutive defeats. Having averaged less than a goal a game prior to meeting Spurs, they showed plenty of endeavor going forward, especially in the second-half, but their two goals still came form the spot.

On the road they’ve managed just three in five trips and so Arsenal should have too much firepower for them. Indeed, the Gunners have won eight of nine unbeaten matches hosting promoted sides since 2015/16, with seven of these victories to nil and five by two or more goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Arsenal -1 Asian Handicap at 2.03

Man City v Man United

November 12th, 3.30am AEDT

Man City have shifted into another gear since the last international break, winning each of their six games across all competitions by an aggregate score of 23-1. The latest saw them hammer Shakhtar 6-0 at the Etihad but United arrive here following a more impressive midweek result.

They came from behind to stun Juventus with two late goals, much to Mourinho’s joy, and having come back from two down in this fixture last term, Pep Guardiola will be wary of his city rivals, despite the hosts’ strong favouritism in the market.

United are the only side to beat City in their last 26 league matches (W21-D4-L1), but that successes was just one of two United have managed on the road to ‘Big Six’ outfits since Mourinho pitched up at Old Trafford. The Red Devils are W2-D4-L5 over this period, with one of the draws at Stamford Bridge in the only one of these fixtures to take place this season.

They will have gained confidence from their result in Turin, but it was the sixth time in their last seven matches where there was at least one strike that they’ve conceded first. City meanwhile, have made a habit of starting fast as they’ve struck within the first half an hour in each of their six-game winning streak.

With this in mind we’ll have a small wager on Man City/Draw half-time/full-time, especially with 10 of United’s last 12 goals coming in the second period.

However, our main bet is Sergio Aguero to score. While results have turned around for United, they’re still not keeping clean sheets with their sole shut out in their last 12 against La Liga’s lowest scorers Valencia. The Argentine is the man to take advantage and he will get you goals against just about anybody, but he particularly enjoys derby day.

He has eight in his last 12 he’s featured in across all competitions and that’s despite completing the full 90 minutes in just half of these games and only playing a minimum of 80 minutes in two thirds.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Sergio Aguero Anytime Goalscorer at 1.80

 BACK – Man City/Draw HT/FT at 17.1

Bournemouth v Man Utd

November 3rd, 11.30pm AEDT

Bournemouth find themselves ahead of Man Utd at this stage with Eddie Howe’s charges playing some fantastic free-flowing football, as only Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City have outscored them.

However, they’ve had a relatively easy fixture list with their sole match-up against a ‘Big Six’ opponent ending in defeat at Chelsea. Their record hosting such sides over the past two seasons is just W2-D2-L8, though eight of these finished with three or more goals and six with at least four.

Although United beat Everton last time out, they’re just not backable at the moment, so goals appear to be the smart way of approaching this one. The Toffees still got on the scoresheet in defeat, meaning the Red Devils have kept just one clean sheet all term, despite having one of the best keepers in the world between the sticks.

We have no confidence in the likes of Smalling and Lindelof in defence, so can see this being an entertaining affair. Over 2.5 Goals has landed in eight of their 10 matches to date and it seems the Cherries are the perfect opponents for this run to continue.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 1.75

Newcastle v Watford

November 4th, 2.00am AEDT

Newcastle may have lifted themselves from the foot of the table with a goalless stalemate away at Southampton, but this was the fourth time in five matches where they’ve drawn a blank. The hosts have only netted more than a single goal in one of 10 outings so far, losing seven of these games, including all five on home turf.

The Magpies lost both encounters with Watford last term by a combined score of 5-1 and the visitors have been boosted ahead of this clash by consecutive victories as they downed Wolves and Huddersfield 2-0 and 3-0 respectively. Their only defeats this season have come against Arsenal, Man Utd and high-flying Bournemouth as they’ve won six of their remaining seven games.

They netted at least twice across each of these victories and with Newcastle’s attack so meek, if the Hornets get in front it’s difficult to see a way back for Rafa Benitez’s men.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Watford Win at 2.69

Arsenal v Liverpool

November 4th, 4.30am AEDT

Arsenal’s winning run came to an end at Selhurst Park last weekend, but at home they’ve won four consecutively in the league while averaging 2.5 goals per game. However, it has been well documented that they’ve not faced a ‘Big Six’ side in this time and their only issues in the past at the Emirates have been when one of the better teams have visited.

Indeed, City swept them aside on the opening day of the season, meaning they’re winless in their last five hosting the ‘Big Six’, conceding at least twice in each of these. We’re not sure Liverpool should be such strong favourite though as four of these were at the tail end of Wenger’s weakening reign and going back to 2014/15, their overall record is W6-D9-L6 in these matches. The Gunners have certainly improved now Unai Emery has had more time to mould the side and this will be a true reflection of how far they’ve come and whether they’re true top-four contenders.

Liverpool put four past Cardiff, but that is to be expected at Anfield. On the road they’ve not scored more than twice this season, as they’ve been more reliant on a resilient defence. This has resulted in a 1-1 draw at Chelsea, as well as goalless stalemate hosting Man City, so we’re not so confident as in the past of the goals bonanza that usually occurs in this fixture.

The Reds overall record traveling to ‘Big Six’ sides under Jurgen Klopp is an even W5-D6-L4, and travelling to the Emirates, Liverpool have won just two of 12 trips (W2-D6-L4). Overall, against an improving Arsenal, Liverpool look a little skinny to us and the draw represents the best value in the outright market.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Draw at 3.76

Wolves v Spurs

November 4th, 6.45am AEDT

Spurs went down to Man City 1-0 in a scrappy encounter on a farcical Wembley pitch. The north Londoners have come up short against real quality this season, but they’ve won seven of their eight matches against sides outside the current top five.

Wolves’ fantastic start to the campaign has somewhat halted with back-to-back defeats to Brighton and Watford. They’re a very well organised side under Nuno, evening holding Man City to a draw at Molineux earlier in the season, but they’re lacking in penetration up front. They’re averaging less than a goal a game and with Riyad Mahrez’s strike on Monday night the only time Spurs have conceded in their last four, we think Wolves could struggle again.

Since arriving at the club, Mauricio Pochettino has maintained an incredible record of 24 victories from 26 unbeaten matches against promoted sides. With Christian Erikson and Dele Alli both returning to fitness, as well as the presence of Harry Kane, they should have enough quality to edge this one.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs Win at 2.2

Man City v Southampton

November 5th, 2.00am AEDT

Man City are top of the Premier League thanks to a vastly superior goal difference over Liverpool as not only are they the top scorers, but also the meanest defence. All this despite already travelling to Spurs, Liverpool and Arsenal, where they kept a clean sheet in each, and so Southampton are unlikely to cause the hosts much alarm.

The Saints’ six goals this term is only worsened by Huddersfield and they’ve now drawn a blank in each of their last five, despite attempting the most shots this season in the Premier League behind City and Chelsea. The Blues and Liverpool and have both inflicted comfortable 3-0 victories over the south-coast club this term, and with the Citizens not conceding in their last six, we see nothing but a home win to nil.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City Win to Nil at 1.85

Chelsea v Palace

November 5th, 3.00am AEDT

Palace showed plenty of spirit against Arsenal to earn a 2-2 draw and halt Arsenal’s winning run, even netting their first home goals of the season, while they won the shot count by 16 to seven. However, that point against Arsenal is Palace’s only one that hasn’t come against a team down in the current bottom three. Furthermore, the Eagles lost all six trips to the ‘Big Six’ last term by an aggregate score of 17-2, which spells trouble when visiting an impressive Chelsea side.

Maurizio Sarri’s team strolled to a 4-0 win at Burnley, which was even achieved without Eden Hazard. They’ve only seen City net more goals this term and they shouldn’t encounter too many problems finding their way onto the scoresheet. However, despite Palace’s troubles in front of goal, they’ve only failed to net in one of five road trips so far – even missing a penalty in that game against Everton.

Palace’s counter-attacking strategy is more suited to life on the road where the expectation to take the initiative isn’t so great, and in Zaha they possess the perfect weapon for that tactic. Both teams have actually scored in each of the last three meetings between these two sides, as well as each of their last three encounters at Stamford Bridge, and a repeat of Chelsea’s 2-1 victory here last term would be of little surprise.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea & both teams to score at 2.6

Liverpool v Cardiff

October 28th, 1.00am AEDT

Liverpool ended their winless run of four games across all competitions with a hard-fought 1-0 victory at Huddersfield last weekend. Their attack then clicked into gear as they put four past minnows Red Star Belgrade without reply midweek.

It was their seventh clean sheet in all competitions this season with the only clubs to breach their defence being Leicester, Spurs, PSG, Chelsea and Napoli. Each of these are a class above Cardiff so it should be another routine victory in front of the Kop. Indeed, they’ve gone nine league games without conceding at Anfield and Jurgen Klopp has won all seven matches at Anfield against promoted sides since taking the reins, with his team shipping just two goals across these.

Cardiff’s four-goal haul against Fulham – by far the divisions’ worst defence – does nothing to convince us they can breach that backline.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool Win to Nil at 1.73

Leicester v West Ham

October 28th, 3.30am AEDT

Leicester started the game brilliantly at Arsenal and should have been more than a goal up before Mesut Ozil struck for the Gunners just before the half-time whistle. It’s typical of how the Foxes’ season has gone so far as they’ve looked bright going forward but vulnerable to any cutting edge in the oppositions’ attack.

Indeed, they’ve netted in every match but kept just two clean sheets – one versus lowly Newcastle and the other against Wolves where they were saved by the woodwork on three occasions. As a result, seven of their nine matches have had at least three goals and so the Over 2.5 Goals price looks generous.

The record will show West Ham losing their last two 1-0, but, it’s not been through a lack of creativity or endeavor going forward but rather some poor finishing and top-class goalkeeping form the opposition. After trailing at the interval against Brighton and Spurs they peppered the goal in the second period on both occasions without any deserved reward.

They’re hardly water-tight at the back though under Manuel Pellegrini as they’ve kept just one clean sheet this term and away from home, 12 of their last 16 have had three or more strikes.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 1.95

Burnley v Chelsea

October 29th, 12.30am AEDT

We thought Burnley might get their true form this season exposed at the Etihad and it proved to be the case as Man City put five past them while they created very little themselves. Only Fulham, Cardiff and Huddersfield have conceded more than the Clarets this term and they now face another of the Big Six in Chelsea.

Hosting such sides, they’re just W1-D2-L10 since 2016/17 as even Man Utd secured a 2-0 victory here this term. In fact, seven of these defeats have been without scoring and with their attack looking bare this season, they could struggle to lay a glove on this Chelsea outfit.

Two of the three times the Blues have dropped points this term has been against Big Six opposition. Excluding such teams, they’ve won five of six unbeaten matches where they’ve conceded just twice.

All four of their road games have come at teams 14th or below and they’ve now won 10 of 14 trips to bottom-half teams since the start of last season, and seven of these victories have been to nil.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea to Win to Nil at 2.15

Crystal Palace v Arsenal

October 29th, 12.30am AEDT

Problems continue to mount for Palace as Milivojevic’s missed penalty at Everton denied them much-needed points, and the concession of two late goals made it an even more bitter pill to swallow. There are major issues going forward with an over-reliance on Wilfred Zaha producing some magic or being fouled for a penalty. They’ve not scored at Selhurst Park yet, despite facing Southampton and Newcastle already, and so we fear for them with the Premier League’s in-form side visiting.

Palace generally raise their game when the big guns come to town, but since beating Chelsea at home early on in Roy Hodgson’s tenure, they’ve lost five of six unbeaten matches hosting such teams. Liverpool’s last-minute strike at the beginning of this campaign was the only time the Eagles were beaten by more than one goal in this run, but since then they’ve been in decline, while Arsenal have gained momentum and confidence under Unai Emery.

This is written before the Gunners’ trip to Sporting on Thursday night, but prior to that they’d won 10 consecutive matches. In the league it’s seven in a row, as crucially these have all been versus sides outside the Big Six. They’ve scored 10 times in the three away games in this run, with each at a side currently in the bottom six.

There’s no way we can envisage this Arsenal side drawing a blank and although they’re not the most stable at the back, Palace’s attack is horribly out of nick and the North London club just look to have too much quality for their struggling hosts.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Arsenal to Win at 1.82

Man United v Everton

October 29th, 3.00am AEDT

Man Utd were thoroughly out-classed by Juventus midweek as they lacked any belief that they could topple a European giant. However, they’ve shown some spirit in the league – particularly in the second-half – to come from behind to pick up points in their last two against Chelsea and Newcastle.

However, they still conceded twice in each of these as their defence is proving problematic. Usually a key element of Mourinho’s tactics, only Burnley, Huddersfield, Cardiff and Fulham have conceded more than the United this term as they’ve kept just one clean sheet, with both teams scoring in seven of their nine fixtures.

Everton have their tails up after winning their last three, but Marco Silva has lost six of seven winless trips to Big Six sides as a manager in the Premier League and that doesn’t bode well for turning around the Toffees’ dire record in such encounters.

Indeed, they’ve lost 17 of 25 winless trips to the Big Six since 2014/15, though this United outfit are one of the weakest they would have travelled to in this time. Since 2016/17, both teams have netted in eight of 13 such trips which looks the best way to go in this one with the Red Devils’ troubles at the back.

Silva is an attack-minded manager and the likes of Sigurdsson and Richarlison should cause the hosts defence some problems, but with Everton already conceding seven goals in four away games this term, Mourinho’s men should experience some joy going the other way.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – BTTS – Yes at 1.87

Tottenham v Man City

October 30th, 7.00am AEDT

Spurs have won their last four in the league while conceding just once, but they’ve each been against sides in the bottom nine. They’ve lost at seventh-placed Watford and against real quality this season, they were outclassed hosting Liverpool as they were fortunate to just lose 2-1, while Barcelona won here 4-2 in the Champions League.

The Premier League champions are the latest visitors and although Spurs didn’t feel the absence of Jan Vertonghen against West Ham or Cardiff, they may do here. They conceded twice at PSV on Wednesday in the Belgian’s absence and since the start of 2015/16, he’s missed six matches against top-half teams and they’ve gone W1-D3-L2 without keeping a clean sheet.

City have won five of seven trips to fellow Big Six sides since the start of last season, with both exceptions coming at Anfield – although the latest would have been different had Riyad Mahrez stuck the penalty away. They dominated Spurs 3-1 here last season and we can envisage a similar outcome.

They’ve really stepped it up in this last week, putting five past Burnley and turning on the style at Shakhtar on Tuesday with Guardiola saying his side played the best football of his time in charge. These are ominous signs for Spurs but with Cristian Erikson back they carry a much greater threat going forward.

Indeed, he played a key role in both of their goals at PSV midweek and while we think City will have too much for the hosts, it has all the elements of a high-scoring encounter.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City Win and Over 2.5 Goals at 2.40

Chelsea v Man Utd

October 20th, 10.30pm AEDT

Jose Mourinho may not have been able to visit his former employers had his United side not staged a second-half comeback against Newcastle prior to the international break. However, he keeps his job for now but that doesn’t paper over the cracks at Old Trafford.

Worryingly, they’ve faced just one of the Big Six this season, losing 3-0 at home to Spurs, and during Mourinho’s time in Manchester, the Red Devils are only W2-D3-L5 travelling to such opposition.

That includes defeats without scoring in both trips to Stamford Bridge and since Fergie retired, Chelsea have won four of five unbeaten matches here. The Blues look an impressive side under Maurizio Sarri, keeping pace with Liverpool and Man City so far.

They were only denied a fourth consecutive home victory by a stunning late Daniel Sturridge strike and in Eden Hazard they possess one of the in-form players in world football right now, with the Belgian unplayable at times.

It’s pretty simple; Chelsea are just a better side than United at the minute and are a good thing for all three points

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea Win at 1.73

Man City v Burnley

October 21st, 1.00am AEDT

It remains to be seen whether Riyad Mahrez’s blaze over the bar from the spot will come back to haunt City, but returning to the familiar surroundings of the Etihad, this should prove a routine victory.

They’ve brushed aside inferior opposition this term and hosting bottom-half teams they’ve won 13 of 14 unbeaten matches since the start of last season, with 10 of these by at least a two-goal margin and seven by three or more.

Last term, Burnley showed plenty of defensive resilience and a bit of luck to go W1-D3-L2 travelling to the Big Six. However, those two defeats were 3-0 here and 5-0 at the Emirates and worryingly that reliability at the back seems to have dispersed. Although they’ve picked up seven points in their last three outings, two were against arguably the divisions’ two weakest sides, Cardiff and Huddersfield, where they were fortunate on both occasions.

At Turf Moor, the Terriers won the shot count 19-6 and likewise Cardiff the week before 20-3, while even in their 4-0 victory over Bournemouth, the Clarets were out-shot 19-12. Joe Hart has made the joint-most saves in the Premier League this season and these are damming statistics for Sean Dyche.

They won’t get away with it at the Etihad and if City are clinical then this could be a rout

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City -2.5 Asian Handicap at 1.72

West Ham v Tottenham

October 21st, 1.00am AEDT

Having picked up seven points against Everton, Chelsea and Man Utd, West Ham went down 1-0 to Brighton but they were rather unlucky to do so.

They dominated for large periods of the game, managing 17 shots in total, and we don’t think that defeat at the Amex will stall their momentum. They welcome a depleted Spurs side to the London Stadium and the Hammers fans get up for this game more than any other in the season, so we’re expecting a good showing.

We pointed out last time that Spurs may struggle in attack without their two chief creators – Dele Alli and Cristian Eriksen – and that was the case as they limped to a 1-0 victory against Cardiff. Without the former, they’ve won just two of nine away matches he’s missed since arriving from MK Dons, and they’ve averaged nearly a goal less per match.

With Harry Kane also not firing on all cylinders they look too shorts at odds-on. Indeed, the Hammers have lost just one of their last six hosting the Big Six – against Man City. Excluding that fixture, they’ve conceded just once in the remaining five and we’re backing them to pick up at least another point here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – West Ham +0.5 Asian Handicap at 2.07

Wolves v Watford

October 21st, 1.00am AEDT

Watford haven’t scored in their last two and shipped six goals against teams going well in Arsenal and Bournemouth. They face another in-form side here and although the Hornets’ attack looked sharp in the first part of the season, the three goals they scored on the road at Burnley looks more and more like an anomaly.

Indeed, they travelled to Turf Moor at the right time as the Clarets started the season so poorly. Beyond that, they only scored once at the divisions’ worst defence, Fulham, and fired a blank at the Emirates in their other road trip.

They’re also without leading assister Jose Holebas, who is suspended, while they failed to score in all seven away matches last season under Javi Gracia, losing six, and could struggle against this disciplined Wolves side.

Nuno named an unchanged starting XI for the eighth consecutive match at Palace and this consistency is bringing rewards as they’ve won four of six unbeaten games. The two stalemates in this run were 1-1 draws with the two Manchester clubs and as the four victories have come to nil, we’re on again.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Wolves Win to Nil at 2.88

Huddersfield v Liverpool

October 21st, 3.30am AEDT

Huddersfield picked up a deserved point at Burnley a fortnight ago, but they’ve simply been out-classed this season when facing stronger opposition, losing 3-0 and 2-0 hosting Chelsea and Spurs respectively, as well as a 6-1 defeat at the Etihad.

They lost by an aggregate of 6-0 to Liverpool last term, but the Reds haven’t been quite as effective going forward this season, while their squad returns battered and bruised from the international break with Mo Salah injured and Sadio Mane a doubt.

The main issue for the Terriers is whether they can breach this new and improved Liverpool defence and the home fans are yet to see them score this season.

In fact, they’ve netted just the solitary strike in their last nine at Kirklees and even without Salah, the visitors should still have enough about them the get on the scoresheet, and so an away win to nil seems most likely.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool Win to Nil at 1.95

Arsenal v Leicester

October 23rd, 6.00am AEDT

After a tricky start of consecutive defeats to Man City and Chelsea, Arsenal have won nine on the spin across all competitions, with the latest their most impressive and dominant under Unai Emery. They took Fulham to the cleaners at Craven Cottage, and now back at the Emirates we fully expect them to pick up another three points.

Excluding fellow Big Six sides, the Gunners have won a remarkable 22 straight matches here with 14 of these to nil and 17 by at least two clear strikes.

With Leicester the latest visitors, we’d prefer to back Arsenal on the handicap rather than to nil as the Foxes offer a threat going forward. Indeed, with the likes of Jamie Vardy and James Maddison playing well the visitors have netted in every game this season, though travelling to Big Six teams they’ve lost 11 of 13 winless trips since 2016/17.

They did score in all but three of the defeats and with Arsenal not entirely convincing at the back, we wouldn’t put anyone off the home win and both teams to score. However, so clinical have Arsenal looked going forward with Aubameyang and Lacazette both in top form, we’ll back them on the handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Arsenal -1.5 Asian Handicap at 2.42

Brighton v West Ham

October 6th, 5.00am AEST

Brighton tasted defeat for just the fifth time on home soil since their promotion when Spurs won here last time out. Their other defeats have been at the hands of Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Leicester, so this remains a difficult task for a rejuvenated West Ham.

Whereas the Seagulls’ success last term was built on a solid defensive foundation, they’ve been lacklustre at the back this term as they’re yet to keep a clean sheet, conceding exactly twice in six of their seven matches. Both teams have scored in their three games at the AMEX as they’ve averaged four goals per game.

West Ham have won three of four unbeaten games across all competitions, beating Everton and Man Utd in the league as well as holding an impressive Chelsea to a stalemate, while they thrashed a hapless Macclesfield 8-0 in the Carabao Cup.

Given their increased output, coupled with a leaky Brighton rear-guard, this encounter should feature goals. That’s nothing new for the visitors with 16 of their 22 road trips since the start of last season featuring at least three strikes and a massive 13 of these containing a minimum of four goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 2.02

Man United v Newcastle

October 7th, 3.30am AEST

Jose Mourinho failed to ease any of the pressure on himself as his side could only manage a dull goalless stalemate with Valencia midweek. It’s their fourth successive game in all competitions without a victory and another poor result and performance against a winless Newcastle could be the final nail in the coffin for ‘The Special One’.

The Magpies’ miserable start to the season continued with a 2-0 home defeat to Leicester, but the players will probably be happier playing away from St James’s where the atmosphere is getting increasingly toxic. Their only points this term have come on the road with their other away match a 2-1 defeat at the Etihad. In fact, that’s been the scoreline in all four of their meetings with the ‘Big Six’ this term.

It’s been United’s worst start to a league campaign for 29 years and despite having a fantastic record against weaker teams at Old Trafford last season, there’s no way we can get behind them in the current climate. They’ve won by more than one goal in just one of their last nine here, while in Newcastle’s last 14 away matches, they’ve only lost by more than one goal in trips to Man City and Liverpool.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Newcastle +1.25 Asian Handicap at 2.04

Fulham v Arsenal

October 7th, 9.00pm AEST

While Fulham continue to muster plenty of chances, their frailties at the back are costing them any chance of winning games. This was none more evident than their 3-0 defeat at Everton where they missed a couple of guilt-edge opportunities before conceding three second-half goals.

Along with bottom two Cardiff and Huddersfield, they’ve shipped the most goals in the division, but up the other end, Mitrovic and Schurrle have been impressing and will fancy their chances against a depleted Gunners defence.

Unai Emery is without Koscielny and Cech, while Sokratis, who has impressed since his arrival, is a doubt, so we expect plenty of goals. Indeed, prior to their Europa League encounter, Arsenal have won seven consecutive matches in all competitions, scoring at least twice in each but only keeping two clean sheets.

In their last 13 on the road in the league, their sole shut out was at Huddersfield as 10 of these featured at least three goals with five featuring four or more.

Betting Strategy

 BACK  – Over 3.5 Goals at 2.20

Southampton v Chelsea

October 7th, 11.15pm AEST

Chelsea managed to come from behind and defeat Jurgen Klopp’s men thanks to a sublime bit of individual brilliance from Eden Hazard. That League Cup defeat ended Liverpool’s seven game winning streak in all competitions while the Blues now remain unbeaten from their eight outings so far, drawing just one of them. However, both sides made eight changes to their starting teams for that last encounter and this Saturday will have a much different look to it.

Liverpool have already won at Spurs, but Chelsea’s toughest visitors so far have been an Arsenal side that historically have struggled going to the top teams and so this week will be the first real test of Maurizio Sarri’s side’s title credentials.

Liverpool struggled at the top teams last term as they managed just one point from their five trips to top-six opponents, a 3-3 draw at the Emirates, as they conceded 16 goals across these matches. Whilst they won at Spurs, we’re not convinced those struggles from last term have been put to bed as Pochettino was without Lloris and Alli that day.

For all their struggles last term, Chelsea still beat Liverpool and Man Utd at Stamford Bridge and so we’re surprised to see them available at the prices they are. They’ve won all three of their home matches whilst Sarri has a history of making his sides very tough to beat at home as in his last two seasons with Napoli they lost only four of 38 home matches.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea Win to Nil at 2.81

Tottenham v Cardiff

October 7th, 12.00am AEST

Cardiff’s daunting run continues with a trip to Wembley to face a Spurs side that have got back to winning ways in the league. Neil Warnock’s men have faced Man City, Chelsea and Arsenal in their last four where they’ve been thoroughly out-classed, conceding 12 times in total, and even in the other match in this run they lost 2-1 at home to Burnley.

Spurs have won 14 of their last 18 at Wembley and despite a host of injuries, this should be a routine victory, especially with Harry Kane finding some form. Indeed, since Pochettino took charge they’ve won all 13 home matches against promoted teams with nine of these to nil and seven by at least two clear strikes.

They may have conceded four to the magic of Messi and Barcelona, but Cardiff look limited going forward with just one of their four goals this term coming away from home.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs Win to Nil at 2.15

Liverpool v Man City

October 8th, 2.30am AEST

Liverpool were the clear favourites for this clash prior to the midweek Champions League games, but after they went down to a late strike in Napoli and Man City scored late themselves to win in Hoffenheim, it’s now almost a pick ‘em contest.

For all the records City broke last year, Liverpool were problematic as they lost three of their four encounters in all competitions with the exception when Sadio Mane saw red in the first half at the Etihad in their league encounter.

No side has picked up more points that the Citizens on the road since the start of last season, but the Reds are unbeaten at Anfield in the league since April 2017, whilst they’ve gone over 700 minutes without conceding.

Liverpool have lost just one of their 15 matches hosting the ‘Big Six’ during Jurgen Klopp’s tenure (W6-D8-L1). That compares favourably to City’s W6-D1-L4 away record to the same opposition under Pep Guardiola, which includes defeat in both trips here.

In fact, Anfield is somewhat of a bogey ground for the blue half of Manchester as they’re just W1-D5-L15 in the Premier League era, which includes five consecutive defeats as the sole success came back in 2002/03.

So, on those stats we would have Liverpool as stronger favourites in front of their own fans. They have been efficient rather than spectacular this season, but they’ll take great confidence from four points in trips to Spurs and Chelsea.

There’s no side better in the land when gearing up for a big game and there is no doubt Klopp will have them fully charged come Sunday afternoon. Guardiola won’t change his style of passing teams to death, which suits the Reds high press and counter-attacking game.

As City are still unable to call on arguably their most likely midfielder to counteract this, Kevin De Bruyne, we’re siding with Liverpool.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool 0 Asian Handicap at 1.94

West Ham v Man Utd

September 29th, 9.30pm AEST

After a slow start, West Ham have finally got going as they followed a 3-1 win at Everton with a goalless draw at home to Chelsea. They face another tough test here as they host Man Utd, though the Red Devils slipped up again as they were held by Wolves in the league and then knocked out Derby in the EFL Cup.

We wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar result here and everything points to be a low-scoring encounter. The Hammers have managed just one goal at the London Stadium in three games this term, whilst Utd played out a goalless draw here at the end of last season. Indeed, eight of Man Utd’s last 12 away games saw Under 2.5 Goals and so we’re surprised to see ‘unders’ at odds against here.

Seven of West Ham’s last 12 at home have also gone under that mark as well as four of their last six against top-six sides here. What’s more, four of West Ham’s five home games with Utd since 2013/14 have seen fewer than three goals and whilst we’re playing in the goals market, we wouldn’t put anyone off backing the draw in what should be a cagey encounter.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 2.5 Goals at 2.02

Huddersfield v Spurs

September 30th, 12.00am AEST

Huddersfield continue to struggle this term as their 3-1 defeat at Leicester leaves them with just two points from their six games. Spurs, meanwhile, got back to winning ways with an impressive 2-1 win at Brighton and they’ll fancy their chances of making it back-to-back victories and edging closer to a top-four spot.

Huddersfield are yet to score in three home games and going back further, they’ve in fact managed just one goal in their last eight on their own turf. They’ve lost without scoring in their last three at home to top-six opponents with Chelsea and Liverpool winning 3-0 and Arsenal 1-0. Spurs have kept only one clean sheet in their last nine on their travels though and so the win to nil isn’t the most attractive at the prices.

Instead, since Spurs have been level at the break in eight of their last 10 road games whilst Huddersfield have been behind at the half in only eight of their 22 home matches since the start of last season, we’re backing Draw/Spurs Half Time/Full Time.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Draw/Spurs HT/FT at 2.72

Arsenal v Watford

September 30th, 12.00am AEST

The Gunners made it four straight wins and also kept their first clean sheet in beating Everton 2-0 at the Emirates. Watford bounced back from defeat against Utd by picking up a point at Fulham to retain their place in the top four, but the Gunners will be expecting to usurp them with victory here.

The victory over Everton means that Arsenal have won all 16 of their home games against sides outside the top six since the start of last season. They’ve won convincingly too as 12 of these victories were by more than one goal, nine were without conceding and they were ahead at the break in 10.

Watford are generally poor travellers as they’ve lost 13 of their 21 away games since the start of last season, including all their six visits to top-six opponents. In fact, in their matches against the ‘Big Six’ they’ve failed to score in any of their last four outings, being behind at the break in each of the last five of them whilst losing by more than a single goal in five too. We wouldn’t put anyone off playing in each of those markets but we’re going to back the Gunners -1.5 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK  – Arsenal -1.5 Asian Handicap at 2.06

Man City v Brighton

September 30th, 12.00am AEST

Man City hammered Cardiff 5-0 last time out meaning they’ve won their last two by an aggregate of 8-0 and they’re starting to look as imperious as they were last season. They’ll relish the prospect of welcoming a Brighton side that conceded at least twice in both their meetings last season and the fans will be expecting a similar outcome.

The Citizens have won 19 of their last 21 at the Etihad, leading at the break in 15 of these and with 11 of these victories by more than two goals. Brighton have lost 14 of their 22 away games since the start of last term, including all eight of their trips to top-six opponents.

The visitors failed to score in all but one of those matches at top-six sides and although the Citizens on the Asian Handicap is tempting, the Seagulls lost only 1-0 at Anfield in their penultimate road game, so we’re siding with the win to nil.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City Win to Nil at 1.67

Everton v Fullham

September 30th, 12.00am AEST

Many were expecting big things from Fulham this term but it’s yet to materialise as they’re down in 15th after having to come from behind to rescue a point at home to Watford last time out. It’s been disappointing for Everton too as they’re down in 12th despite having a pretty soft fixture list to start the season.

The same can’t be said for Fulham’s away schedule as they’ve already gone to Man City and Spurs whilst they managed a draw at Brighton, which is a tough place to go. With that in mind, Everton are probably on the short side at 1.79, particularly as they’ve won just two of their last seven at Goodison Park and failed to beat strugglers Huddersfield and West Ham in their last two there. Indeed, they’re without a clean sheet in four at home and so they should give Fulham plenty of opportunities. We’ll lay the Toffees at the prices.

Betting Strategy

 LAY – Everton at 1.81

Chelsea v Liverpool

September 30th, 2.30am AEST

Chelsea managed to come from behind and defeat Jurgen Klopp’s men thanks to a sublime bit of individual brilliance from Eden Hazard. That League Cup defeat ended Liverpool’s seven game winning streak in all competitions while the Blues now remain unbeaten from their eight outings so far, drawing just one of them. However, both sides made eight changes to their starting teams for that last encounter and this Saturday will have a much different look to it.

Liverpool have already won at Spurs, but Chelsea’s toughest visitors so far have been an Arsenal side that historically have struggled going to the top teams and so this week will be the first real test of Maurizio Sarri’s side’s title credentials.

Liverpool struggled at the top teams last term as they managed just one point from their five trips to top-six opponents, a 3-3 draw at the Emirates, as they conceded 16 goals across these matches. Whilst they won at Spurs, we’re not convinced those struggles from last term have been put to bed as Pochettino was without Lloris and Alli that day.

For all their struggles last term, Chelsea still beat Liverpool and Man Utd at Stamford Bridge and so we’re surprised to see them available at the prices they are. They’ve won all three of their home matches whilst Sarri has a history of making his sides very tough to beat at home as in his last two seasons with Napoli they lost only four of 38 home matches.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea +0.25 Asian Handicap at 1.80

Man United v Wolves

September 23rd, 12.00am AEST

Wolves have made an impressive start to their Premier League campaign with 11 points from their five games but they face a tough test here as they go to a resurgent Man Utd side that’s recovered from a slow start with victories in their last two. Utd have won 16 of their 21 home games since the start of last season, keeping a clean sheet in 11 of these victories.

Wolves were beaten at Leicester in their opening road game before winning at a then struggling West Ham in their last away day and so we’re expecting Utd to take the spoils in this one. The Red Devils have won 12 of 15 home games against promoted opposition since 2013/14, with clean sheets in eight of these games.

However, they’ve taken a while to break these sides down recently, leading at the break in only two of the last nine since 2015/16. Since Wolves have been level at the break in four of their five games, including when hosting Man City, we’re backing Draw/Man Utd Half Time/Full Time

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Draw/Utd HT/FT at $4.6

Cardiff v Man City

September 23rd, 12.00am AEST

It’s been a tough start for Cardiff as they’ve picked up only two points from their five games and managed only three goals. Things don’t get any easier for them as they host Man City, who eased to a 3-0 victory over Fulham last time out. City have won 17 of their 21 away games since the start of last season and all six of their matches against bottom-six opponents.

Four of these six victories were without conceding but it often took City a while to break their hosts down as they led at the break in only half of these matches. Whilst City have kept only one clean sheet in their last four at home, they’ve shut out their opponents in half of their last eight road games and so we’re making the win to nil our standout selection, whilst we wouldn’t put anyone off chancing Draw/City Half Time/Full Time.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City Win to Nil at $1.83

Liverpool v Southampton

September 23rd, 12.00am AEST

Liverpool continued their impressive start with a 2-1 victory at Spurs as they’ve also lead at the break in all five of their victories and conceded just two goals across them. Southampton took the lead twice at home to Brighton last time out but couldn’t hold on to their advantage and so they had to settle for a point.

Saints won at Palace in their last road game, but they generally struggled when travelling to the top teams last term and they make this trip without their best player Danny Ings. They picked up only one point from their trips to top-six opponents, failing to score in half of these – including a 3-0 defeat here – whilst they also conceded five at Spurs and three at Arsenal. Indeed, Liverpool have scored at least three times in four of their last six at Anfield and so we’re siding with them to find the net more than twice.

Betting Strategy

 BACK  – Over 2.5 Liverpool Goals at $1.95

Brighton v Tottenham

September 23rd, 2.30am AEST

Brighton have drawn 2-2 in their last two games as their defence has looked vulnerable this term as they’ve conceded at least twice in four of their five outings, whilst slow starts haven’t helped either as they’ve trailed at the break four times. Spurs have conceded twice in their last two as well as they’ve gone down to Watford and Liverpool and so they’ll be looking to get back on track here.

Spurs were held to a draw here at the end of last term as the Amex has proven a tough place to go. Brighton have lost only four times in 21 games here since the start of last season, whilst they’ve picked up 10 points from the last four visits of Big Six opponents.

Spurs failed to win at the likes of Watford, Southampton, Leicester and West Brom last term whilst they’ve already lost at Watford this term and so they look too short to us.

Betting Strategy

LAY – Spurs at $1.78

West Ham v Chelsea

September 23rd, 10.30pm AEST

Chelsea maintained their perfect record as they eased to a 4-1 win against Cardiff as they’re forcing their way into the title conversation. West Ham, meanwhile, picked up their first points of the season as they won 3-1 at Everton and they’ll be hopeful of a repeat of last season in this fixture as they beat the Blues 1-0 at the London Stadium.

The Hammers also held Unite and Arsenal to draws here last term whilst they were edged out by just a single goal by Spurs. With that in mind, Chelsea look on the short side at around 1.55 particularly as their two away victories have come against strugglers Huddersfield and Newcastle. Indeed, they’ve won only seven of their last 15 on the road, losing four of their last nine, and so we fancy this new-look Hammers side to once again show signs of improvement and adjustment to the methods of Pellegrini.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – West Ham +1 Asian Handicap at $2.11

Arsenal v Everton

September 24th, 1.00am AEST

After a tough start, Arsenal made it three straight wins with their 2-1 victory at Newcastle, but they’re still searching for their first clean sheet under Unai Emery. Everton, meanwhile, have picked up only six points from a pretty lenient opening five fixtures as this is by far their toughest test to date.

The Gunners have won 16 of their 21 home games with all the exceptions against fellow top-six opponents as they’ve been remarkably consistent against the rest of the division. Everton were hammered 5-1 here last term whilst they also went down 4-0 at Spurs and United and 2-0 at Chelsea. Therefore, we’re expecting a comfy victory for Emery’s men and indeed, seven of Arsenal’s last eight home wins were by more than one goal.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Arsenal -1.5 Asian Handicap at $2.29


Spurs v Liverpool

September 15th, 9.30pm AEST

Spurs’ perfect start to the season was ended as they went down to Watford prior to the international break. Liverpool have maximum points and have been largely untroubled to date, though this will be their toughest test. Liverpool generally struggled in these fixtures last term as they went down 5-0 at City, 4-1 at Spurs, 2-1 at Man Utd and 1-0 at Chelsea, whilst they drew 3-3 at Arsenal as they were exposed defensively against the top teams.

Spurs, on the other hand, have won three of their last four at home to top-six opponents, with the exception against Man City and so we’re surprised to see them priced up as outsiders. Pochettino’s record when hosting Big Six opponents is an impressive W11-D3-L4 and whilst Liverpool have made some impressive additions to their squad over the summer, they’re yet to prove they can do it against the top teams.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs 0 Asian Handicap at 2.11

Chelsea v Cardiff

September 16th, 12.00am AEST

Cardiff scored their first goals of the season prior to the international break but they nonetheless went down 3-2 to Arsenal as they’re still searching for their first win of the season. It’s unlikely to come here as they travel to a Chelsea side that has maximum points and has impressed under new manager Maurizio Sarri.

Chelsea put in a more assured defensive display in beating Bournemouth having looked vulnerable against Arsenal the time before that at Stamford Bridge and it’s hard to see this goal-shy Cardiff side troubling their defence. Neil Warnock’s side have failed to score in both their away games so far, at Huddersfield and Bournemouth, which doesn’t bode well for them as they travel to much stronger opposition. Indeed, Chelsea have won five of six unbeaten home games against promoted teams since 2016/17 and they kept a clean sheet in four of those victories and so we’re backing a Chelsea win to nil.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea Win to Nil at 1.87

Man City v Fulham

September 16th, 12.00am AEST

Fulham have already gone to Spurs and been beaten 3-1 and they face the even tougher proposition of a trip to the Etihad, where Man City have won their two games by an aggregate of 8-2. Indeed, the Citizens are on a run of 18 wins in 20 home games, though they do give their opponents a chance as their only clean sheets in their last six at home have come against Huddersfield last term and Swansea.

Indeed, they’ve kept only five clean sheets in their last 16 at home and after drawing a blank against Palace on the opening day, Fulham have since netted seven times in their last three. They managed to net in defeat at Spurs and we fancy the Cottagers to do the same again here as they themselves don’t look to have the capability of stopping this rampant City side as they’ve already conceded nine goals in their four matches.

Betting Strategy

 BACK  – Man City Win and Both Teams to Score at 2.5

Newcastle v Arsenal

September 16th, 12.00am AEST

It says something about Newcastle’s schedule at the start of this season that a home clash with Arsenal is one of the easiest games they’ve had so far as they’ve already hosted Spurs and Chelsea and gone to Man City. They’ve lost each of those 2-1 and they’ll fancy their chances of scoring against an Arsenal side that has shipped eight goals already this term.

Indeed, the Gunners look a touch short at odds-on for a side with such a poor recent away record. They almost came unstuck against Cardiff whilst that was one of only five away wins they’ve managed in 21 games since the start of last season. They were beaten 2-1 here last season, one of a number of impressive home results the Magpies managed against the top teams. They also beat Man Utd and Chelsea at St James’ Park and drew against Liverpool, whilst none of the top-six have beaten them by more than one goal in their last seven home games. With that in mind, we’ll take the Gunners on.

Betting Strategy

LAY – Arsenal at 1.98

Watford v Man Utd

September 16th, 2.30am AEST

Watford have defied all expectations by winning their first four games, including a most impressive 2-1 home win over Spurs last time out. Utd got back on track with a 2-0 win at Burnley before the international break and Jose Mourinho will be hopeful of repeating the 4-2 win that his side managed here last term to ease some of the pressure on himself.

Indeed, there’s generally goals when the top teams come to Watford as both teams have scored in six of their seven home games against top-six opponents since the start of last season, with the exception a 6-0 hammering at the hands of Man City. That was one of four of these matches that saw more than three goals, whilst six had more than two. Utd have already shipped seven goals this term as they’ve looked far from secure defensively and so both teams to score looks overpriced, whilst we wouldn’t put anyone off chancing Over 3.5 Goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Both Teams to Score at 1.91

Everton v West Ham

September 17th, 1.00am AEST

Everton drew for the third time in four games against Huddersfield but they remain unbeaten and that certainly can’t be said of their visitors as they’re yet to pick up a point. They’ve gone to Liverpool and Arsenal already and suffered heavy defeats in what’s been a continuation of their poor away form from last season.

Indeed, they’ve now lost 12 of their last 21 away games but Everton have won only five of their last 12 at home and just one of their four games this season, despite a pretty lenient fixture list. Therefore, we’re not particularly keen on backing the hosts at odds-on and instead we’re turning our attention to the goals markets where we’re expecting there to be plenty with two attacking managers facing off. All four of Everton’s matches have seen both teams score, whilst seven of West Ham’s last nine away matches have seen more than three goals as both these sides have been vulnerable defensively.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 1.88

Leicester v Liverpool

September 1st, 9.30pm AEST

It’s been an excellent start for Liverpool as they’ve won their three games without conceding but they probably face their toughest test to date as they travel to a Leicester side that have won their last two after a narrow defeat at Man Utd on the opening day. The Foxes beat Arsenal and Spurs here last term whilst they drew against Man Utd, as Man City were the only top-six side to beat them by more than one goal.

These top six encounters were generally entertaining affairs as both teams scored in five, five also saw more than two goals and half had more than three. Indeed, Liverpool won 3-2 here and we could see something similar as we expect Klopp’s men to concede for the first time this season. Both teams to score looks the best play in this one, whilst given Leicester’s impressive home record in these fixtures, we wouldn’t put anyone off siding with them +1.25 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Both Teams to Score at 1.91

Chelsea v Bournemouth

September 2nd, 12.00am AEST

It’s been a perfect start for Chelsea under Maurizio Sarri as they have maximum points so far, but it’s been an impressive start for Bournemouth as they’ve amassed seven points from their three games. This is undoubtedly the Cherries’ toughest test to date though after wins over Cardiff and West Ham and a draw at home to Everton last time out. They struggled in these fixtures last term, as they lost and failed to score in five of their six trips to top-six teams, with the other a shock 3-0 win here at Stamford Bridge.

We’re not expecting a repeat of that result nor do we think that Chelsea will be able to shut out Eddie Howe’s men as they’ve looked far from defensively secure so far. The Blues are playing in an expansive style under the Italian and going back into last season they have only kept two clean sheets from their last eight home games. With Bournemouth netting twice in all their matches so far, both teams to score looks the value bet.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Both Teams to Score at 1.85

Man City v Newcastle

September 2nd, 2.30am AEST

Man City were held to a draw at Wolves last time out but they’re unsurprisingly overwhelming favourites to get back to winning ways as they host Newcastle. It’s been a tough start for Rafa Benitez’s men as they’ve already hosted Spurs and Chelsea, going down 2-1 to both. Whilst they don’t tend to get results against the top teams, they are generally competitive, as they’ve lost only one of their 14 clashes with top-six teams since the start of last season by more than two goals.

Indeed, since that 4-1 defeat at Man Utd, they went down 3-1 at Chelsea and at Man City, 1-0 at Arsenal and Spurs and 2-0 at Liverpool. With Kevin de Bruyne out, Newcastle’s task is made slightly less daunting and so we think they can once again avoid a thrashing versus one of the big boys. The Belgian has failed to start only five games since the start of last season and City have won just one of these by more than two goals, so we’re with the visitors on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Newcastle +2.5 Asian Handicap at 1.94

Cardiff v Arsenal

September 2nd, 2.30am AEST

Cardiff are still searching for their first league goal this term, despite having and extra man for 30 minutes against both Newcastle and Huddersfield. Indeed, with games against Chelsea and Man City following this one they’ll have hoped to have done better from their opening three games. Arsenal’s defeat at Chelsea was their eighth in their last nine away games but at the same price as Spurs are at Watford, we’d much prefer to back the Gunners.

Arsenal have won 13 of their 18 trips to promoted teams since 2012/13 (W13-D3-L2), keeping a clean sheet in eight of the last 15 of these. Indeed, given Cardiff’s lack of goals so far and the expectation that Arsenal will continue to improve defensively as Unai Emery has time to put his stamp on the team, we’re backing the visitors to win to nil. They’ve already shown progress across his three games in charge as they were much improved against the Hammers and had plenty of chances against Chelsea after a lacklustre showing against Man City in their opener.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Arsenal Win to Nil at 2.8

Watford v Spurs

September 3rd, 1.00am AEST

Many expected Watford to struggle this term after the departure of their manager and best player Richarlison to Everton but they’ve defied those expectations. They face their toughest test to date though as they host a Spurs side that also have three wins after they triumphed 3-0 at Man Utd last time out.

Watford have lost only six of their 21 home games since the start of last season and whilst the Manchester clubs both won fairly comfortably here last term, they beat Arsenal and Chelsea whilst they drew against Spurs themselves and Liverpool. With that in mind, and given their excellent start to the season, Spurs look a touch short here, perhaps as a result of that win at Man Utd. In fact, expected goals suggests that they deserved to lose at Old Trafford and with Watford not losing any of their last 12 home games by more than one goal, we’re siding with them +1 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Watford +1 Asian Handicap at 1.86

Burnley v Man Utd

September 3rd, 1.00am AEST

Both these sides have experienced poor starts as Burnley have shipped seven goals across their last two outings, losing both of them, while they were involved in a goalless draw at Southampton on the opening weekend. Man Utd meanwhile, have shipped six in defeats against Spurs and Brighton in their last two. However, Utd were unlucky at times against Spurs and the expected goals in fact suggested that they deserved to win that game. With Alexis Sanchez returning to full fitness, we’re expecting the Red Devils to get back to winning ways.

Watford have already won 3-1 at Turf Moor and whilst Burnley had an excellent season last term, they nonetheless picked up only one point from the visits of top-six teams, failing to score in half of these. Utd won 1-0 here but Burnley don’t look anywhere near as robust defensively this term, so we think Utd could be more dominant in victory and we’ll side with Mourinho’s men -1 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man Utd -1 Asian Handicap at 2.23

Wolves v Man City

August 25th, 9.30pm AEST

It’s been a difficult start to life in the Premier League for Wolves as they failed to beat 10-man Everton on the opening day whilst they were beaten 2-0 at Leicester last time out – who also went a man down after Vardy’s exit in the 66th minute. They face the toughest test of them all as they host a Man City side fresh from a 6-1 hammering of Huddersfield. The Citizens have won 17 of 20 away games since the start of last season, keeping a clean sheet in 11 of these and leading at the break in 12.

They’ve won seven of nine unbeaten trips to promoted teams since 2015/16 and they kept a clean sheet in five of the last seven of these. Indeed, they were far from emphatic in victories over Premier League newcomers last term as they won 1-0 at Newcastle, 2-1 at Huddersfield and 2-0 at Brighton so rather than siding with the Citizens on the Asian Handicap, the win to nil looks the best option here, particularly as City kept a clean sheet in six of their 10 trips to bottom-half opponents last term.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City Win to Nil at $2.05

Arsenal v West Ham

August 26th, 12.00am AEST

It’s been a baptism of fire for Unai Emery as he’s had Man City and Chelsea in his opening two games, but he’ll be hopeful of picking up his first points here as his side host the Hammers. After a summer of heavy expenditure, West Ham were thrashed 4-0 at Liverpool in their opening game whilst they disappointingly went down 2-1 after taking the lead at home to Bournemouth last time out.

For all their struggles last term, Arsenal had an excellent home record, especially if we exclude top-six opponents, as they won all 14 of their matches at the Emirates. Eight of these victories were without conceding while as many were by more than two goals. Indeed, they beat West Ham 4-1 here last term and we wouldn’t be surprised to see something similar. The Hammers also conceded four at Liverpool and Man Utd last term, while they’ve already repeated that trick at Anfield again this season and so we’re siding with the Gunners on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK- Arsenal -1.5 Asian Handicap at $1.99

Liverpool v Brighton

August 26th, 2.30am AEST

Liverpool are two from two this term having won their games by an aggregate of 6-0 but they host a Brighton side that are on a high after beating Man Utd 3-2 at home last time out. However, the Seagulls managed some impressive results at home against the top teams last term, beating Arsenal and Utd again at the Amex, but they lost all six of their trips to top-six opponents by an aggregate of 14-1.

Indeed, they were beaten 4-0 by Liverpool, who haven’t conceded in six at Anfield as 10 of their 13 home wins since the start of last seasons were without conceding. It’s hard to see past a comfortable victory for the hosts and so the question is what’s the best way of siding with Jurgen Klopp’s charges? Given the form of Van Dijk and the purchase of Alisson as well as their excellent recent home defensive record and being the only side with an immaculate defensive record so far this term, it’s the home win to nil that we prefer at a marginally bigger price than the -2 Asian Handicap, though we wouldn’t put anyone off backing both.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool Win to Nil at $1.76

Watford v Crystal Palace

August 26th, 10.30pm AEST

It’s been an excellent start for Watford, who’ve beaten Brighton 2-0 and won 3-1 at Burnley last time out. Next, they host a Palace side that were beaten 2-0 at home by Liverpool in their latest outing, having won 2-0 at Fulham in their opening game. That was the Eagles’ first defeat in eight games and against much easier opposition, they look a touch too big at the current odds.

The visitors have won three of five unbeaten road games, including a 0-0 draw here at the end of last season, whilst they’re W4-D6-L0 when travelling to bottom-half opponents since the start of last term. With that in mind, we think they can pick up at least a point here against a Watford side that we expect to struggle this season, despite their promising start.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Crystal Palace 0 Asian Handicap at $2.1

Newcastle v Chelsea

August 27th, 1.00am AEST

Maurizio Sarri’s had an excellent start to his Chelsea tenure and he’s already delivered the attacking brand of football expected, as the Blues have scored six goals across their two victories. Newcastle on the other hand, are yet to win, as they were beaten 2-1 at home to Spurs on the opening weekend, while they played out a goalless draw in Cardiff last time out.

Eden Hazard is edging towards full fitness having been reduced to a substitute’s role so far and that spells danger for Newcastle because he’s looked electric in his 43 minutes of game time. Should Chelsea triumph though, it’s likely to be a narrow victory as Newcastle haven’t lost any of their last six home games against top-six opponents by more than a single goal. 2-1 was the score in three of Chelsea’s 10 away wins last term and we wouldn’t put anyone off chancing that outcome again but we’re backing the Chelsea win by one goal to keep the 1-0 on side, as that’s been the case in all Newcastle’s last five defeats at St James’ Park.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea Win by One Goal at $3.3

Manchester United v Tottenham

August 28th, 5.00am AEST

Man Utd were beaten 3-2 at Brighton last time out and so are on something of a retrieval mission as they host Spurs, who made it two from two with their 3-1 victory over Fulham. Utd are a very different proposition at home though, as they’ve now won 16 of 20 games at Old Trafford since the start of last season, including four of five games against fellow top-six opponents with the exception against Man City. They’re generally tight encounters, as you’d expect under Mourinho, with each of their four victories with the Big Six by just a single goal. Indeed, Spurs have lost each of their four visits to Old Trafford since the start of the 2014/15 season, with the last three of these finishing 1-0.

Spurs lost at both Manchester clubs and Arsenal last term and so Utd look a massive price to us. They have to be the bet at the prices and we may well see a repeat of last season when Utd followed up a 2-1 defeat at Huddersfield with a 1-0 home win over Spurs themselves. Indeed, Utd also bounced back from a 0-1 defeat at Newcastle last term, before going on to beat Chelsea 2-1 at Old Trafford in their next game and so we’re siding with Mourinho’s men and for those looking for something at a slightly bigger price, we’d recommend the 1-0 correct score or the Utd Win by one goal.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man United to Win at 2.70

Crystal Palace v Liverpool

August 21st, 5.00am AEST

Both these sides started off with victories as Palace won 2-0 at Fulham whilst Liverpool cruised to a 4-0 triumph at home to West Ham. That result continues an excellent run for Palace as they’ve won their last four and are unbeaten seven. Indeed, Liverpool are the last side to beat them as they came from behind to win 2-1 at Selhurst Park. We expect this to be a similarly close-fought encounter and so are surprised to see Liverpool at a shorter price here than Utd are at Brighton.

Palace have lost only five of 17 home games under Roy Hodgson (W7-D5-L5) and managed a win over Chelsea and a draw with City last term, whilst Liverpool and Utd came from behind to win by a single goal and Spurs edged them out 1-0 in a close encounter too. Liverpool failed to win at the likes of West Brom, Swansea, Newcastle and Watford last term and so they look too short to us. They’ve won only two of their last 10 away games by more than one goal, both at bottom-six opponents, and so we’re siding with Palace on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Crystal Palace +1.25 Asian Handicap at 1.91

Everton v Southhampton

August 19th, 12.00am AEST

Everton were impressive on the opening day, despite not getting a win at Wolves, as they overcame a red card to Phil Jagielka in the first half to take a 2-1 lead before Wolves netted an 80th minute equaliser. Southampton were involved in a far less entertaining encounter as they drew 0-0 at home to Burnley as they continue to struggle for goals.

For all their problems last term, Everton won 10 of their 19 home games and if we exclude sides that finished above them they were W10-D2-L0. The Saints won only three times on their travels last term, with two coming against relegated West Brom and Swansea and another over Palace during their disastrous start to the season, as they netted just 17 away goals in total. Everton have an excellent record in this fixture at Goodison Park, winning four of six unbeaten meetings since 2012/13 and we’re expecting them to make it five from seven, inspired by Richarlison, who’s hit the ground running for his new club.

Betting Strategy

 BACK- Everton to Win at 2.04

Tottenham v Fulham

August 19th, 12.00am AEST

It was a disappointing return to the Premier League for Fulham, who were beaten 2-0 on the opening day at home to Crystal Palace and they face a far trickier London derby here as they travel to Spurs, who managed to win 2-1 at Newcastle despite concerns that some of their players involved in the latter stages of the World Cup would be undercooked.

With their new stadium not quite ready it takes place at Wembley where Spurs won 13 of their 19 games last term and they have an excellent record against promoted teams, having won 27 of 30 unbeaten games against such teams since 2013/14 and all 15 at home, remarkably keeping 12 clean sheets across these and leading at the break in nine of these victories. Indeed, eight of the nine wins since 2015/16 were without conceding and so we’re backing Spurs to win to nil, as they’ve done in six of their last eight games at Wembley.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs to Win to Nil at 2.15

Chelsea v Arsenal

August 19th, 2.30am AEST

It was a tough start for Unai Emery as his side were beaten 2-0 at the Emirates by Man City and it doesn’t get any easier for them as they travel to Chelsea, who began their campaign with a comfy 3-0 win at Huddersfield. Arsenal failed to win on the road in 2018 before they won at Huddersfield on the final day last term and historically struggle when travelling to ‘Big Six’ sides as they’re W2-D7-L16 in such fixtures since 2013/14 and have lost eight of 10 winless games since 2016/17.

Five of those eight defeats were by more than one goal whilst they have a poor record at Stamford Bridge in particular. They’ve lost seven of nine trips here since 2009/10, with six of those defeats by more than one goal as they failed to score in six and trailed at the break in seven. Chelsea, on the other hand, have won 15 of 25 home matches against Big Six opponents since 2013/14 and so we’re with the Blues in this one.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea -0.75 Asian Handicap at 2.07

Man City v Huddersfield

August 19th, 10.30pm AEST

Man City weren’t at their best on the opening day but they nonetheless won 2-0 at Arsenal and they should have no problems making it two from two as they host a Huddersfield side that were thumped 3-0 at home to Chelsea. City won 16 of 19 home games last term and whilst Huddersfield were one of the teams that stopped the Citizens from winning at the Etihad, the title was already wrapped up and the Terriers were fighting for their survival, so we can’t see them repeating the feat.

When hosting the bottom-three, City won 7-2 against Stoke, West Brom 3-0 and Swansea 5-0 and that’s certainly looking like where Huddersfield will end up. David Wagner’s men failed to score at five of the top six last term and went down 3-0 at Liverpool and 5-0 at Arsenal, and so we’re expecting another heavy defeat for them here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City -2.75 Asian Handicap at 1.87

Brighton v Manchester United

August 20th, 1.00am AEST

It was a disappointing start for Brighton as they went down 2-0 at Watford, meaning they have just one win in their last 10 games going back to the end of last season. Utd started with a comfy enough victory over Leicester and will be seeking to avenge a 1-0 defeat here last term. We’re surprised to see Utd as big a price as they are to do so and we think that away trips to the lesser sides is an area that they’ll improve upon this term.

They often struggled to break down bottom-six sides on the road last term as they lost at Huddersfield too and drew at Stoke, but with Sanchez now at the club and Pogba playing in a more advanced position, they have the quality to break down stubborn defences. Whilst Brighton had some success against the top teams at the Amex last term, they were beaten 2-0 by City, 5-1 by Liverpool and 4-0 by Chelsea. Whilst Utd may not be that emphatic in victory, we do expect them to pick up the three points.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man United to Win at 1.80

Newcastle v Tottenham

August 11th, 9.30pm AEST

Spurs won 2-0 at St. James’ Park on the opening day last term but Newcastle managed some excellent results hosting the top teams thereafter as they beat Man Utd, Arsenal and Chelsea, drew against Liverpool, whilst they were edged out 1-0 by Man City. With that in mind, Spurs look a touch short, particularly with question marks over the fitness of the likes of Lloris, Alderweireld, Vertonghen, Rose, Trippier, Dier, Dembele, Alli and Kane after each were part of sides that made it to the final weekend of the World Cup.

What’s more, Spurs have won only three of 10 opening day away games since 2006/07, losing six of them, and so at the prices we’re looking to take them on. Newcastle have lost only three of 11 opening day home games since 1995/96 and with Rafa Benitez working out how to get results against the top teams last term, we’re backing the Magpies to pick up at least a point.

Betting Strategy

 LAY – Spurs at 2.1

Huddersfield v Chelsea

August 12th, 12am AEST

Huddersfield are many people’s fancy to go down this term and they have a tough assignment to kick things off as they host Chelsea. However, the Terriers proved they were capable of beating the top teams here last term as they beat Utd 2-1. We fancy there could be another upset as they host a Chelsea side likely to be without what are arguably their three best player s in Hazard, Kante and Courtois after each went deep into the World Cup.

Chelsea have a recent history of starting slowly too as they went down 3-2 at home to Burnley last term, only won curtesy of a late winner over West Ham the year before, whilst they drew 2-2 at Stamford Bridge against Swansea on the opening day in 2015/16. They appear on the short side after what’s been a turbulent summer with doubts over the futures of Hazard and Courtois, let alone their participation in this game. Huddersfield look to have spent well in the transfer window having laid out over £40m at the time of writing and we wouldn’t be as down on their chances as others are.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Huddersfield +1 Asian Handicap at 1.96

Wolves v Everton

August 12th, 2.30am AEST

Wolves are widely expected to have a good season after they won the Championship fairly comfortably last term and brought in the likes of Rui Patricio and Joao Moutinho in the transfer window. However, against proven Premier League opposition in Everton, they look on the short side. Marco Silva looks a good appointment after he did better than most could with a dire Hull side and results with Watford only started to suffer after the instability of being linked with a move to pastures new. Meanwhile, he’s been backed substantially in the transfer window with Digne and Richarlison coming in.

Promoted teams have won only five of 30 opening games since 2008/09 and if we only look at opening fixtures against teams that finished in the top half in the season prior, their record in that period is W1-D2-L14. Everton won five of six unbeaten games against promoted teams last term, conceding just once across these, whilst they’ve remarkably lost just one of 24 matches against such sides since 2014/15 and so we’re looking to side with the Toffees.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Everton +0.25 Asian Handicap at 1.93

Liverpool v West Ham

August 12th, 10.30pm AEST

Expectations are high for West Ham after the appointment of Manuel Pellegrini and a busy transfer window that has seen Felipe Anderson, Issa Diop and Andriy Yarmolenko all join the club, whilst Jack Wilshere could prove a shrewd addition on a free transfer. A trip to Anfield on the opening day is about as tough as it gets though and will be a good indicator of where they are as a club.

Liverpool were W12-D7-L0 at Anfield last term and contrary to popular belief were excellent defensively as they kept a clean sheet in 12 of these matches. West Ham did manage to get some positive results at the top teams though as they drew at Chelsea and Spurs whilst they came close to upsetting City before they came from behind to win 2-1. Liverpool haven’t won by more than one goal on the opening day since way back in 1994/95 and so the new-look Hammers ae worth siding with +1.5 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – West Ham +1.5 Asian Handicap at 2.24

Arsenal v Manchester City

August 13th, 1am AEST

It’s a baptism of fire for Unai Emery as he begins his tenure by hosting champions Man City, who are odds-on to retain their title. For all their struggles last term, the Gunners had an excellent W15-D2-L2 record at the Emirates, though their defeats did come against the Manchester clubs. That was one of 16 away wins for City last term and the Citizens are generally excellent starters, having won their opening game in each of the last seven seasons with a combined score of 20-3.

Arsenal, on the other hand, have won only two of eight opening matches since 2010/11, including home defeats against Liverpool, West Ham and Aston Villa. They have concerns in defence with Kolasinac, Monreal and Koscielny all unlikely to feature and that leaves them short at left back, with it not immediately obvious who could step in. City won 3-0 here last term and whilst they may not be as emphatic in victory here, they look a fair price to kick off the campaign with a win.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City Win at 2.02

Manchester United v Leicester

August 11th, 5am AEST

United enter the season under a cloud following some strange comments from Mourinho in pre-season but they have a relatively straightforward assignment to start the season as they host a Mahrez-less Leicester. The Red Devils had an excellent home record last term as they won 15 of their 19 games (W15-D2-L2), including each of their first five without conceding.

Indeed, one of those was a 2-0 win over Leicester themselves and we could envisage something similar here. The Foxes have picked up only two points from 12 trips to top-six opponents since 2016/17, conceding more than twice in half of these matches. Jamie Vardy and Harry Maguire are unlikely to feature having only returned to training this week and so they may well struggle to challenge the Utd back line. We like both the win to nil and Utd -1 on the Asian Handicap but with Leicester managing to net in eight of those 12 trips to the Big Six, we’ll opt for the latter.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man Utd -1 Asian Handicap at 1.86


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