Your Expert Soccer Predictions for EPL 2018/19

They’re veterans of the Betfair Hub and we’re happy to announce that Football Formlabs are giving their Soccer Predictions for the 2018/19 Premier League season. With one of the most extensive football databases on the market, you can be sure that each and every bet recommendation is backed up by significant statistical evidence.

For those new to The Betfair Hub, Form Labs provided expert analysis on every single game over the 2018 World Cup. You can view their insight here.


What Can You Expect This Season?

Six comprehensive match previews each and every week which will be focusing predominantly on the Big Six. To avoid confusion, that is, Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Tottenham.

When these teams clash with each other we will replace it with a match preview from the remaining pool of games.

Form Labs will also provide us with matchday content for marquee clashes in the Champions and Europa League when these tournaments kickoff later this year.

If you missed their full 2018/19 Season Preview it’s not too late. It can be viewed here.

Lastly, be sure to check out the Betfair Hub and the Betfair Exchange for up to the minute Premier League and football odds.


Chelsea v Man Utd

October 20th, 10.30pm AEDT

Jose Mourinho may not have been able to visit his former employers had his United side not staged a second-half comeback against Newcastle prior to the international break. However, he keeps his job for now but that doesn’t paper over the cracks at Old Trafford.

Worryingly, they’ve faced just one of the Big Six this season, losing 3-0 at home to Spurs, and during Mourinho’s time in Manchester, the Red Devils are only W2-D3-L5 travelling to such opposition.

That includes defeats without scoring in both trips to Stamford Bridge and since Fergie retired, Chelsea have won four of five unbeaten matches here. The Blues look an impressive side under Maurizio Sarri, keeping pace with Liverpool and Man City so far.

They were only denied a fourth consecutive home victory by a stunning late Daniel Sturridge strike and in Eden Hazard they possess one of the in-form players in world football right now, with the Belgian unplayable at times.

It’s pretty simple; Chelsea are just a better side than United at the minute and are a good thing for all three points

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea Win at 1.73


Man City v Burnley

October 21st, 1.00am AEDT

It remains to be seen whether Riyad Mahrez’s blaze over the bar from the spot will come back to haunt City, but returning to the familiar surroundings of the Etihad, this should prove a routine victory.

They’ve brushed aside inferior opposition this term and hosting bottom-half teams they’ve won 13 of 14 unbeaten matches since the start of last season, with 10 of these by at least a two-goal margin and seven by three or more.

Last term, Burnley showed plenty of defensive resilience and a bit of luck to go W1-D3-L2 travelling to the Big Six. However, those two defeats were 3-0 here and 5-0 at the Emirates and worryingly that reliability at the back seems to have dispersed. Although they’ve picked up seven points in their last three outings, two were against arguably the divisions’ two weakest sides, Cardiff and Huddersfield, where they were fortunate on both occasions.

At Turf Moor, the Terriers won the shot count 19-6 and likewise Cardiff the week before 20-3, while even in their 4-0 victory over Bournemouth, the Clarets were out-shot 19-12. Joe Hart has made the joint-most saves in the Premier League this season and these are damming statistics for Sean Dyche.

They won’t get away with it at the Etihad and if City are clinical then this could be a rout

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City -2.5 Asian Handicap at 1.72


West Ham v Tottenham

October 21st, 1.00am AEDT

Having picked up seven points against Everton, Chelsea and Man Utd, West Ham went down 1-0 to Brighton but they were rather unlucky to do so.

They dominated for large periods of the game, managing 17 shots in total, and we don’t think that defeat at the Amex will stall their momentum. They welcome a depleted Spurs side to the London Stadium and the Hammers fans get up for this game more than any other in the season, so we’re expecting a good showing.

We pointed out last time that Spurs may struggle in attack without their two chief creators – Dele Alli and Cristian Eriksen – and that was the case as they limped to a 1-0 victory against Cardiff. Without the former, they’ve won just two of nine away matches he’s missed since arriving from MK Dons, and they’ve averaged nearly a goal less per match.

With Harry Kane also not firing on all cylinders they look too shorts at odds-on. Indeed, the Hammers have lost just one of their last six hosting the Big Six – against Man City. Excluding that fixture, they’ve conceded just once in the remaining five and we’re backing them to pick up at least another point here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – West Ham +0.5 Asian Handicap at 2.07


Wolves v Watford

October 21st, 1.00am AEDT

Watford haven’t scored in their last two and shipped six goals against teams going well in Arsenal and Bournemouth. They face another in-form side here and although the Hornets’ attack looked sharp in the first part of the season, the three goals they scored on the road at Burnley looks more and more like an anomaly.

Indeed, they travelled to Turf Moor at the right time as the Clarets started the season so poorly. Beyond that, they only scored once at the divisions’ worst defence, Fulham, and fired a blank at the Emirates in their other road trip.

They’re also without leading assister Jose Holebas, who is suspended, while they failed to score in all seven away matches last season under Javi Gracia, losing six, and could struggle against this disciplined Wolves side.

Nuno named an unchanged starting XI for the eighth consecutive match at Palace and this consistency is bringing rewards as they’ve won four of six unbeaten games. The two stalemates in this run were 1-1 draws with the two Manchester clubs and as the four victories have come to nil, we’re on again.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Wolves Win to Nil at 2.88


Huddersfield v Liverpool

October 21st, 3.30am AEDT

Huddersfield picked up a deserved point at Burnley a fortnight ago, but they’ve simply been out-classed this season when facing stronger opposition, losing 3-0 and 2-0 hosting Chelsea and Spurs respectively, as well as a 6-1 defeat at the Etihad.

They lost by an aggregate of 6-0 to Liverpool last term, but the Reds haven’t been quite as effective going forward this season, while their squad returns battered and bruised from the international break with Mo Salah injured and Sadio Mane a doubt.

The main issue for the Terriers is whether they can breach this new and improved Liverpool defence and the home fans are yet to see them score this season.

In fact, they’ve netted just the solitary strike in their last nine at Kirklees and even without Salah, the visitors should still have enough about them the get on the scoresheet, and so an away win to nil seems most likely.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool Win to Nil at 1.95


Arsenal v Leicester

October 23rd, 6.00am AEDT

After a tricky start of consecutive defeats to Man City and Chelsea, Arsenal have won nine on the spin across all competitions, with the latest their most impressive and dominant under Unai Emery. They took Fulham to the cleaners at Craven Cottage, and now back at the Emirates we fully expect them to pick up another three points.

Excluding fellow Big Six sides, the Gunners have won a remarkable 22 straight matches here with 14 of these to nil and 17 by at least two clear strikes.

With Leicester the latest visitors, we’d prefer to back Arsenal on the handicap rather than to nil as the Foxes offer a threat going forward. Indeed, with the likes of Jamie Vardy and James Maddison playing well the visitors have netted in every game this season, though travelling to Big Six teams they’ve lost 11 of 13 winless trips since 2016/17.

They did score in all but three of the defeats and with Arsenal not entirely convincing at the back, we wouldn’t put anyone off the home win and both teams to score. However, so clinical have Arsenal looked going forward with Aubameyang and Lacazette both in top form, we’ll back them on the handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Arsenal -1.5 Asian Handicap at 2.42

Brighton v West Ham

October 6th, 5.00am AEST

Brighton tasted defeat for just the fifth time on home soil since their promotion when Spurs won here last time out. Their other defeats have been at the hands of Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Leicester, so this remains a difficult task for a rejuvenated West Ham.

Whereas the Seagulls’ success last term was built on a solid defensive foundation, they’ve been lacklustre at the back this term as they’re yet to keep a clean sheet, conceding exactly twice in six of their seven matches. Both teams have scored in their three games at the AMEX as they’ve averaged four goals per game.

West Ham have won three of four unbeaten games across all competitions, beating Everton and Man Utd in the league as well as holding an impressive Chelsea to a stalemate, while they thrashed a hapless Macclesfield 8-0 in the Carabao Cup.

Given their increased output, coupled with a leaky Brighton rear-guard, this encounter should feature goals. That’s nothing new for the visitors with 16 of their 22 road trips since the start of last season featuring at least three strikes and a massive 13 of these containing a minimum of four goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 2.02


Man United v Newcastle

October 7th, 3.30am AEST

Jose Mourinho failed to ease any of the pressure on himself as his side could only manage a dull goalless stalemate with Valencia midweek. It’s their fourth successive game in all competitions without a victory and another poor result and performance against a winless Newcastle could be the final nail in the coffin for ‘The Special One’.

The Magpies’ miserable start to the season continued with a 2-0 home defeat to Leicester, but the players will probably be happier playing away from St James’s where the atmosphere is getting increasingly toxic. Their only points this term have come on the road with their other away match a 2-1 defeat at the Etihad. In fact, that’s been the scoreline in all four of their meetings with the ‘Big Six’ this term.

It’s been United’s worst start to a league campaign for 29 years and despite having a fantastic record against weaker teams at Old Trafford last season, there’s no way we can get behind them in the current climate. They’ve won by more than one goal in just one of their last nine here, while in Newcastle’s last 14 away matches, they’ve only lost by more than one goal in trips to Man City and Liverpool.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Newcastle +1.25 Asian Handicap at 2.04


Fulham v Arsenal

October 7th, 9.00pm AEST

While Fulham continue to muster plenty of chances, their frailties at the back are costing them any chance of winning games. This was none more evident than their 3-0 defeat at Everton where they missed a couple of guilt-edge opportunities before conceding three second-half goals.

Along with bottom two Cardiff and Huddersfield, they’ve shipped the most goals in the division, but up the other end, Mitrovic and Schurrle have been impressing and will fancy their chances against a depleted Gunners defence.

Unai Emery is without Koscielny and Cech, while Sokratis, who has impressed since his arrival, is a doubt, so we expect plenty of goals. Indeed, prior to their Europa League encounter, Arsenal have won seven consecutive matches in all competitions, scoring at least twice in each but only keeping two clean sheets.

In their last 13 on the road in the league, their sole shut out was at Huddersfield as 10 of these featured at least three goals with five featuring four or more.

Betting Strategy

 BACK  – Over 3.5 Goals at 2.20


Southampton v Chelsea

October 7th, 11.15pm AEST

Chelsea managed to come from behind and defeat Jurgen Klopp’s men thanks to a sublime bit of individual brilliance from Eden Hazard. That League Cup defeat ended Liverpool’s seven game winning streak in all competitions while the Blues now remain unbeaten from their eight outings so far, drawing just one of them. However, both sides made eight changes to their starting teams for that last encounter and this Saturday will have a much different look to it.

Liverpool have already won at Spurs, but Chelsea’s toughest visitors so far have been an Arsenal side that historically have struggled going to the top teams and so this week will be the first real test of Maurizio Sarri’s side’s title credentials.

Liverpool struggled at the top teams last term as they managed just one point from their five trips to top-six opponents, a 3-3 draw at the Emirates, as they conceded 16 goals across these matches. Whilst they won at Spurs, we’re not convinced those struggles from last term have been put to bed as Pochettino was without Lloris and Alli that day.

For all their struggles last term, Chelsea still beat Liverpool and Man Utd at Stamford Bridge and so we’re surprised to see them available at the prices they are. They’ve won all three of their home matches whilst Sarri has a history of making his sides very tough to beat at home as in his last two seasons with Napoli they lost only four of 38 home matches.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea Win to Nil at 2.81


Tottenham v Cardiff

October 7th, 12.00am AEST

Cardiff’s daunting run continues with a trip to Wembley to face a Spurs side that have got back to winning ways in the league. Neil Warnock’s men have faced Man City, Chelsea and Arsenal in their last four where they’ve been thoroughly out-classed, conceding 12 times in total, and even in the other match in this run they lost 2-1 at home to Burnley.

Spurs have won 14 of their last 18 at Wembley and despite a host of injuries, this should be a routine victory, especially with Harry Kane finding some form. Indeed, since Pochettino took charge they’ve won all 13 home matches against promoted teams with nine of these to nil and seven by at least two clear strikes.

They may have conceded four to the magic of Messi and Barcelona, but Cardiff look limited going forward with just one of their four goals this term coming away from home.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs Win to Nil at 2.15


Liverpool v Man City

October 8th, 2.30am AEST

Liverpool were the clear favourites for this clash prior to the midweek Champions League games, but after they went down to a late strike in Napoli and Man City scored late themselves to win in Hoffenheim, it’s now almost a pick ‘em contest.

For all the records City broke last year, Liverpool were problematic as they lost three of their four encounters in all competitions with the exception when Sadio Mane saw red in the first half at the Etihad in their league encounter.

No side has picked up more points that the Citizens on the road since the start of last season, but the Reds are unbeaten at Anfield in the league since April 2017, whilst they’ve gone over 700 minutes without conceding.

Liverpool have lost just one of their 15 matches hosting the ‘Big Six’ during Jurgen Klopp’s tenure (W6-D8-L1). That compares favourably to City’s W6-D1-L4 away record to the same opposition under Pep Guardiola, which includes defeat in both trips here.

In fact, Anfield is somewhat of a bogey ground for the blue half of Manchester as they’re just W1-D5-L15 in the Premier League era, which includes five consecutive defeats as the sole success came back in 2002/03.

So, on those stats we would have Liverpool as stronger favourites in front of their own fans. They have been efficient rather than spectacular this season, but they’ll take great confidence from four points in trips to Spurs and Chelsea.

There’s no side better in the land when gearing up for a big game and there is no doubt Klopp will have them fully charged come Sunday afternoon. Guardiola won’t change his style of passing teams to death, which suits the Reds high press and counter-attacking game.

As City are still unable to call on arguably their most likely midfielder to counteract this, Kevin De Bruyne, we’re siding with Liverpool.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool 0 Asian Handicap at 1.94

West Ham v Man Utd

September 29th, 9.30pm AEST

After a slow start, West Ham have finally got going as they followed a 3-1 win at Everton with a goalless draw at home to Chelsea. They face another tough test here as they host Man Utd, though the Red Devils slipped up again as they were held by Wolves in the league and then knocked out Derby in the EFL Cup.

We wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar result here and everything points to be a low-scoring encounter. The Hammers have managed just one goal at the London Stadium in three games this term, whilst Utd played out a goalless draw here at the end of last season. Indeed, eight of Man Utd’s last 12 away games saw Under 2.5 Goals and so we’re surprised to see ‘unders’ at odds against here.

Seven of West Ham’s last 12 at home have also gone under that mark as well as four of their last six against top-six sides here. What’s more, four of West Ham’s five home games with Utd since 2013/14 have seen fewer than three goals and whilst we’re playing in the goals market, we wouldn’t put anyone off backing the draw in what should be a cagey encounter.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 2.5 Goals at 2.02


Huddersfield v Spurs

September 30th, 12.00am AEST

Huddersfield continue to struggle this term as their 3-1 defeat at Leicester leaves them with just two points from their six games. Spurs, meanwhile, got back to winning ways with an impressive 2-1 win at Brighton and they’ll fancy their chances of making it back-to-back victories and edging closer to a top-four spot.

Huddersfield are yet to score in three home games and going back further, they’ve in fact managed just one goal in their last eight on their own turf. They’ve lost without scoring in their last three at home to top-six opponents with Chelsea and Liverpool winning 3-0 and Arsenal 1-0. Spurs have kept only one clean sheet in their last nine on their travels though and so the win to nil isn’t the most attractive at the prices.

Instead, since Spurs have been level at the break in eight of their last 10 road games whilst Huddersfield have been behind at the half in only eight of their 22 home matches since the start of last season, we’re backing Draw/Spurs Half Time/Full Time.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Draw/Spurs HT/FT at 2.72


Arsenal v Watford

September 30th, 12.00am AEST

The Gunners made it four straight wins and also kept their first clean sheet in beating Everton 2-0 at the Emirates. Watford bounced back from defeat against Utd by picking up a point at Fulham to retain their place in the top four, but the Gunners will be expecting to usurp them with victory here.

The victory over Everton means that Arsenal have won all 16 of their home games against sides outside the top six since the start of last season. They’ve won convincingly too as 12 of these victories were by more than one goal, nine were without conceding and they were ahead at the break in 10.

Watford are generally poor travellers as they’ve lost 13 of their 21 away games since the start of last season, including all their six visits to top-six opponents. In fact, in their matches against the ‘Big Six’ they’ve failed to score in any of their last four outings, being behind at the break in each of the last five of them whilst losing by more than a single goal in five too. We wouldn’t put anyone off playing in each of those markets but we’re going to back the Gunners -1.5 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK  – Arsenal -1.5 Asian Handicap at 2.06


Man City v Brighton

September 30th, 12.00am AEST

Man City hammered Cardiff 5-0 last time out meaning they’ve won their last two by an aggregate of 8-0 and they’re starting to look as imperious as they were last season. They’ll relish the prospect of welcoming a Brighton side that conceded at least twice in both their meetings last season and the fans will be expecting a similar outcome.

The Citizens have won 19 of their last 21 at the Etihad, leading at the break in 15 of these and with 11 of these victories by more than two goals. Brighton have lost 14 of their 22 away games since the start of last term, including all eight of their trips to top-six opponents.

The visitors failed to score in all but one of those matches at top-six sides and although the Citizens on the Asian Handicap is tempting, the Seagulls lost only 1-0 at Anfield in their penultimate road game, so we’re siding with the win to nil.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City Win to Nil at 1.67


Everton v Fullham

September 30th, 12.00am AEST

Many were expecting big things from Fulham this term but it’s yet to materialise as they’re down in 15th after having to come from behind to rescue a point at home to Watford last time out. It’s been disappointing for Everton too as they’re down in 12th despite having a pretty soft fixture list to start the season.

The same can’t be said for Fulham’s away schedule as they’ve already gone to Man City and Spurs whilst they managed a draw at Brighton, which is a tough place to go. With that in mind, Everton are probably on the short side at 1.79, particularly as they’ve won just two of their last seven at Goodison Park and failed to beat strugglers Huddersfield and West Ham in their last two there. Indeed, they’re without a clean sheet in four at home and so they should give Fulham plenty of opportunities. We’ll lay the Toffees at the prices.

Betting Strategy

 LAY – Everton at 1.81


Chelsea v Liverpool

September 30th, 2.30am AEST

Chelsea managed to come from behind and defeat Jurgen Klopp’s men thanks to a sublime bit of individual brilliance from Eden Hazard. That League Cup defeat ended Liverpool’s seven game winning streak in all competitions while the Blues now remain unbeaten from their eight outings so far, drawing just one of them. However, both sides made eight changes to their starting teams for that last encounter and this Saturday will have a much different look to it.

Liverpool have already won at Spurs, but Chelsea’s toughest visitors so far have been an Arsenal side that historically have struggled going to the top teams and so this week will be the first real test of Maurizio Sarri’s side’s title credentials.

Liverpool struggled at the top teams last term as they managed just one point from their five trips to top-six opponents, a 3-3 draw at the Emirates, as they conceded 16 goals across these matches. Whilst they won at Spurs, we’re not convinced those struggles from last term have been put to bed as Pochettino was without Lloris and Alli that day.

For all their struggles last term, Chelsea still beat Liverpool and Man Utd at Stamford Bridge and so we’re surprised to see them available at the prices they are. They’ve won all three of their home matches whilst Sarri has a history of making his sides very tough to beat at home as in his last two seasons with Napoli they lost only four of 38 home matches.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea +0.25 Asian Handicap at 1.80

Man United v Wolves

September 23rd, 12.00am AEST

Wolves have made an impressive start to their Premier League campaign with 11 points from their five games but they face a tough test here as they go to a resurgent Man Utd side that’s recovered from a slow start with victories in their last two. Utd have won 16 of their 21 home games since the start of last season, keeping a clean sheet in 11 of these victories.

Wolves were beaten at Leicester in their opening road game before winning at a then struggling West Ham in their last away day and so we’re expecting Utd to take the spoils in this one. The Red Devils have won 12 of 15 home games against promoted opposition since 2013/14, with clean sheets in eight of these games.

However, they’ve taken a while to break these sides down recently, leading at the break in only two of the last nine since 2015/16. Since Wolves have been level at the break in four of their five games, including when hosting Man City, we’re backing Draw/Man Utd Half Time/Full Time

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Draw/Utd HT/FT at $4.6


Cardiff v Man City

September 23rd, 12.00am AEST

It’s been a tough start for Cardiff as they’ve picked up only two points from their five games and managed only three goals. Things don’t get any easier for them as they host Man City, who eased to a 3-0 victory over Fulham last time out. City have won 17 of their 21 away games since the start of last season and all six of their matches against bottom-six opponents.

Four of these six victories were without conceding but it often took City a while to break their hosts down as they led at the break in only half of these matches. Whilst City have kept only one clean sheet in their last four at home, they’ve shut out their opponents in half of their last eight road games and so we’re making the win to nil our standout selection, whilst we wouldn’t put anyone off chancing Draw/City Half Time/Full Time.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City Win to Nil at $1.83


Liverpool v Southampton

September 23rd, 12.00am AEST

Liverpool continued their impressive start with a 2-1 victory at Spurs as they’ve also lead at the break in all five of their victories and conceded just two goals across them. Southampton took the lead twice at home to Brighton last time out but couldn’t hold on to their advantage and so they had to settle for a point.

Saints won at Palace in their last road game, but they generally struggled when travelling to the top teams last term and they make this trip without their best player Danny Ings. They picked up only one point from their trips to top-six opponents, failing to score in half of these – including a 3-0 defeat here – whilst they also conceded five at Spurs and three at Arsenal. Indeed, Liverpool have scored at least three times in four of their last six at Anfield and so we’re siding with them to find the net more than twice.

Betting Strategy

 BACK  – Over 2.5 Liverpool Goals at $1.95


Brighton v Tottenham

September 23rd, 2.30am AEST

Brighton have drawn 2-2 in their last two games as their defence has looked vulnerable this term as they’ve conceded at least twice in four of their five outings, whilst slow starts haven’t helped either as they’ve trailed at the break four times. Spurs have conceded twice in their last two as well as they’ve gone down to Watford and Liverpool and so they’ll be looking to get back on track here.

Spurs were held to a draw here at the end of last term as the Amex has proven a tough place to go. Brighton have lost only four times in 21 games here since the start of last season, whilst they’ve picked up 10 points from the last four visits of Big Six opponents.

Spurs failed to win at the likes of Watford, Southampton, Leicester and West Brom last term whilst they’ve already lost at Watford this term and so they look too short to us.

Betting Strategy

LAY – Spurs at $1.78


West Ham v Chelsea

September 23rd, 10.30pm AEST

Chelsea maintained their perfect record as they eased to a 4-1 win against Cardiff as they’re forcing their way into the title conversation. West Ham, meanwhile, picked up their first points of the season as they won 3-1 at Everton and they’ll be hopeful of a repeat of last season in this fixture as they beat the Blues 1-0 at the London Stadium.

The Hammers also held Unite and Arsenal to draws here last term whilst they were edged out by just a single goal by Spurs. With that in mind, Chelsea look on the short side at around 1.55 particularly as their two away victories have come against strugglers Huddersfield and Newcastle. Indeed, they’ve won only seven of their last 15 on the road, losing four of their last nine, and so we fancy this new-look Hammers side to once again show signs of improvement and adjustment to the methods of Pellegrini.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – West Ham +1 Asian Handicap at $2.11


Arsenal v Everton

September 24th, 1.00am AEST

After a tough start, Arsenal made it three straight wins with their 2-1 victory at Newcastle, but they’re still searching for their first clean sheet under Unai Emery. Everton, meanwhile, have picked up only six points from a pretty lenient opening five fixtures as this is by far their toughest test to date.

The Gunners have won 16 of their 21 home games with all the exceptions against fellow top-six opponents as they’ve been remarkably consistent against the rest of the division. Everton were hammered 5-1 here last term whilst they also went down 4-0 at Spurs and United and 2-0 at Chelsea. Therefore, we’re expecting a comfy victory for Emery’s men and indeed, seven of Arsenal’s last eight home wins were by more than one goal.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Arsenal -1.5 Asian Handicap at $2.29

 

Spurs v Liverpool

September 15th, 9.30pm AEST

Spurs’ perfect start to the season was ended as they went down to Watford prior to the international break. Liverpool have maximum points and have been largely untroubled to date, though this will be their toughest test. Liverpool generally struggled in these fixtures last term as they went down 5-0 at City, 4-1 at Spurs, 2-1 at Man Utd and 1-0 at Chelsea, whilst they drew 3-3 at Arsenal as they were exposed defensively against the top teams.

Spurs, on the other hand, have won three of their last four at home to top-six opponents, with the exception against Man City and so we’re surprised to see them priced up as outsiders. Pochettino’s record when hosting Big Six opponents is an impressive W11-D3-L4 and whilst Liverpool have made some impressive additions to their squad over the summer, they’re yet to prove they can do it against the top teams.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs 0 Asian Handicap at 2.11


Chelsea v Cardiff

September 16th, 12.00am AEST

Cardiff scored their first goals of the season prior to the international break but they nonetheless went down 3-2 to Arsenal as they’re still searching for their first win of the season. It’s unlikely to come here as they travel to a Chelsea side that has maximum points and has impressed under new manager Maurizio Sarri.

Chelsea put in a more assured defensive display in beating Bournemouth having looked vulnerable against Arsenal the time before that at Stamford Bridge and it’s hard to see this goal-shy Cardiff side troubling their defence. Neil Warnock’s side have failed to score in both their away games so far, at Huddersfield and Bournemouth, which doesn’t bode well for them as they travel to much stronger opposition. Indeed, Chelsea have won five of six unbeaten home games against promoted teams since 2016/17 and they kept a clean sheet in four of those victories and so we’re backing a Chelsea win to nil.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea Win to Nil at 1.87


Man City v Fulham

September 16th, 12.00am AEST

Fulham have already gone to Spurs and been beaten 3-1 and they face the even tougher proposition of a trip to the Etihad, where Man City have won their two games by an aggregate of 8-2. Indeed, the Citizens are on a run of 18 wins in 20 home games, though they do give their opponents a chance as their only clean sheets in their last six at home have come against Huddersfield last term and Swansea.

Indeed, they’ve kept only five clean sheets in their last 16 at home and after drawing a blank against Palace on the opening day, Fulham have since netted seven times in their last three. They managed to net in defeat at Spurs and we fancy the Cottagers to do the same again here as they themselves don’t look to have the capability of stopping this rampant City side as they’ve already conceded nine goals in their four matches.

Betting Strategy

 BACK  – Man City Win and Both Teams to Score at 2.5


Newcastle v Arsenal

September 16th, 12.00am AEST

It says something about Newcastle’s schedule at the start of this season that a home clash with Arsenal is one of the easiest games they’ve had so far as they’ve already hosted Spurs and Chelsea and gone to Man City. They’ve lost each of those 2-1 and they’ll fancy their chances of scoring against an Arsenal side that has shipped eight goals already this term.

Indeed, the Gunners look a touch short at odds-on for a side with such a poor recent away record. They almost came unstuck against Cardiff whilst that was one of only five away wins they’ve managed in 21 games since the start of last season. They were beaten 2-1 here last season, one of a number of impressive home results the Magpies managed against the top teams. They also beat Man Utd and Chelsea at St James’ Park and drew against Liverpool, whilst none of the top-six have beaten them by more than one goal in their last seven home games. With that in mind, we’ll take the Gunners on.

Betting Strategy

LAY – Arsenal at 1.98


Watford v Man Utd

September 16th, 2.30am AEST

Watford have defied all expectations by winning their first four games, including a most impressive 2-1 home win over Spurs last time out. Utd got back on track with a 2-0 win at Burnley before the international break and Jose Mourinho will be hopeful of repeating the 4-2 win that his side managed here last term to ease some of the pressure on himself.

Indeed, there’s generally goals when the top teams come to Watford as both teams have scored in six of their seven home games against top-six opponents since the start of last season, with the exception a 6-0 hammering at the hands of Man City. That was one of four of these matches that saw more than three goals, whilst six had more than two. Utd have already shipped seven goals this term as they’ve looked far from secure defensively and so both teams to score looks overpriced, whilst we wouldn’t put anyone off chancing Over 3.5 Goals.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Both Teams to Score at 1.91


Everton v West Ham

September 17th, 1.00am AEST

Everton drew for the third time in four games against Huddersfield but they remain unbeaten and that certainly can’t be said of their visitors as they’re yet to pick up a point. They’ve gone to Liverpool and Arsenal already and suffered heavy defeats in what’s been a continuation of their poor away form from last season.

Indeed, they’ve now lost 12 of their last 21 away games but Everton have won only five of their last 12 at home and just one of their four games this season, despite a pretty lenient fixture list. Therefore, we’re not particularly keen on backing the hosts at odds-on and instead we’re turning our attention to the goals markets where we’re expecting there to be plenty with two attacking managers facing off. All four of Everton’s matches have seen both teams score, whilst seven of West Ham’s last nine away matches have seen more than three goals as both these sides have been vulnerable defensively.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 2.5 Goals at 1.88

Leicester v Liverpool

September 1st, 9.30pm AEST

It’s been an excellent start for Liverpool as they’ve won their three games without conceding but they probably face their toughest test to date as they travel to a Leicester side that have won their last two after a narrow defeat at Man Utd on the opening day. The Foxes beat Arsenal and Spurs here last term whilst they drew against Man Utd, as Man City were the only top-six side to beat them by more than one goal.

These top six encounters were generally entertaining affairs as both teams scored in five, five also saw more than two goals and half had more than three. Indeed, Liverpool won 3-2 here and we could see something similar as we expect Klopp’s men to concede for the first time this season. Both teams to score looks the best play in this one, whilst given Leicester’s impressive home record in these fixtures, we wouldn’t put anyone off siding with them +1.25 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Both Teams to Score at 1.91


Chelsea v Bournemouth

September 2nd, 12.00am AEST

It’s been a perfect start for Chelsea under Maurizio Sarri as they have maximum points so far, but it’s been an impressive start for Bournemouth as they’ve amassed seven points from their three games. This is undoubtedly the Cherries’ toughest test to date though after wins over Cardiff and West Ham and a draw at home to Everton last time out. They struggled in these fixtures last term, as they lost and failed to score in five of their six trips to top-six teams, with the other a shock 3-0 win here at Stamford Bridge.

We’re not expecting a repeat of that result nor do we think that Chelsea will be able to shut out Eddie Howe’s men as they’ve looked far from defensively secure so far. The Blues are playing in an expansive style under the Italian and going back into last season they have only kept two clean sheets from their last eight home games. With Bournemouth netting twice in all their matches so far, both teams to score looks the value bet.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Both Teams to Score at 1.85


Man City v Newcastle

September 2nd, 2.30am AEST

Man City were held to a draw at Wolves last time out but they’re unsurprisingly overwhelming favourites to get back to winning ways as they host Newcastle. It’s been a tough start for Rafa Benitez’s men as they’ve already hosted Spurs and Chelsea, going down 2-1 to both. Whilst they don’t tend to get results against the top teams, they are generally competitive, as they’ve lost only one of their 14 clashes with top-six teams since the start of last season by more than two goals.

Indeed, since that 4-1 defeat at Man Utd, they went down 3-1 at Chelsea and at Man City, 1-0 at Arsenal and Spurs and 2-0 at Liverpool. With Kevin de Bruyne out, Newcastle’s task is made slightly less daunting and so we think they can once again avoid a thrashing versus one of the big boys. The Belgian has failed to start only five games since the start of last season and City have won just one of these by more than two goals, so we’re with the visitors on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Newcastle +2.5 Asian Handicap at 1.94


Cardiff v Arsenal

September 2nd, 2.30am AEST

Cardiff are still searching for their first league goal this term, despite having and extra man for 30 minutes against both Newcastle and Huddersfield. Indeed, with games against Chelsea and Man City following this one they’ll have hoped to have done better from their opening three games. Arsenal’s defeat at Chelsea was their eighth in their last nine away games but at the same price as Spurs are at Watford, we’d much prefer to back the Gunners.

Arsenal have won 13 of their 18 trips to promoted teams since 2012/13 (W13-D3-L2), keeping a clean sheet in eight of the last 15 of these. Indeed, given Cardiff’s lack of goals so far and the expectation that Arsenal will continue to improve defensively as Unai Emery has time to put his stamp on the team, we’re backing the visitors to win to nil. They’ve already shown progress across his three games in charge as they were much improved against the Hammers and had plenty of chances against Chelsea after a lacklustre showing against Man City in their opener.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Arsenal Win to Nil at 2.8


Watford v Spurs

September 3rd, 1.00am AEST

Many expected Watford to struggle this term after the departure of their manager and best player Richarlison to Everton but they’ve defied those expectations. They face their toughest test to date though as they host a Spurs side that also have three wins after they triumphed 3-0 at Man Utd last time out.

Watford have lost only six of their 21 home games since the start of last season and whilst the Manchester clubs both won fairly comfortably here last term, they beat Arsenal and Chelsea whilst they drew against Spurs themselves and Liverpool. With that in mind, and given their excellent start to the season, Spurs look a touch short here, perhaps as a result of that win at Man Utd. In fact, expected goals suggests that they deserved to lose at Old Trafford and with Watford not losing any of their last 12 home games by more than one goal, we’re siding with them +1 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Watford +1 Asian Handicap at 1.86


Burnley v Man Utd

September 3rd, 1.00am AEST

Both these sides have experienced poor starts as Burnley have shipped seven goals across their last two outings, losing both of them, while they were involved in a goalless draw at Southampton on the opening weekend. Man Utd meanwhile, have shipped six in defeats against Spurs and Brighton in their last two. However, Utd were unlucky at times against Spurs and the expected goals in fact suggested that they deserved to win that game. With Alexis Sanchez returning to full fitness, we’re expecting the Red Devils to get back to winning ways.

Watford have already won 3-1 at Turf Moor and whilst Burnley had an excellent season last term, they nonetheless picked up only one point from the visits of top-six teams, failing to score in half of these. Utd won 1-0 here but Burnley don’t look anywhere near as robust defensively this term, so we think Utd could be more dominant in victory and we’ll side with Mourinho’s men -1 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man Utd -1 Asian Handicap at 2.23

Wolves v Man City

August 25th, 9.30pm AEST

It’s been a difficult start to life in the Premier League for Wolves as they failed to beat 10-man Everton on the opening day whilst they were beaten 2-0 at Leicester last time out – who also went a man down after Vardy’s exit in the 66th minute. They face the toughest test of them all as they host a Man City side fresh from a 6-1 hammering of Huddersfield. The Citizens have won 17 of 20 away games since the start of last season, keeping a clean sheet in 11 of these and leading at the break in 12.

They’ve won seven of nine unbeaten trips to promoted teams since 2015/16 and they kept a clean sheet in five of the last seven of these. Indeed, they were far from emphatic in victories over Premier League newcomers last term as they won 1-0 at Newcastle, 2-1 at Huddersfield and 2-0 at Brighton so rather than siding with the Citizens on the Asian Handicap, the win to nil looks the best option here, particularly as City kept a clean sheet in six of their 10 trips to bottom-half opponents last term.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City Win to Nil at $2.05


Arsenal v West Ham

August 26th, 12.00am AEST

It’s been a baptism of fire for Unai Emery as he’s had Man City and Chelsea in his opening two games, but he’ll be hopeful of picking up his first points here as his side host the Hammers. After a summer of heavy expenditure, West Ham were thrashed 4-0 at Liverpool in their opening game whilst they disappointingly went down 2-1 after taking the lead at home to Bournemouth last time out.

For all their struggles last term, Arsenal had an excellent home record, especially if we exclude top-six opponents, as they won all 14 of their matches at the Emirates. Eight of these victories were without conceding while as many were by more than two goals. Indeed, they beat West Ham 4-1 here last term and we wouldn’t be surprised to see something similar. The Hammers also conceded four at Liverpool and Man Utd last term, while they’ve already repeated that trick at Anfield again this season and so we’re siding with the Gunners on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK- Arsenal -1.5 Asian Handicap at $1.99


Liverpool v Brighton

August 26th, 2.30am AEST

Liverpool are two from two this term having won their games by an aggregate of 6-0 but they host a Brighton side that are on a high after beating Man Utd 3-2 at home last time out. However, the Seagulls managed some impressive results at home against the top teams last term, beating Arsenal and Utd again at the Amex, but they lost all six of their trips to top-six opponents by an aggregate of 14-1.

Indeed, they were beaten 4-0 by Liverpool, who haven’t conceded in six at Anfield as 10 of their 13 home wins since the start of last seasons were without conceding. It’s hard to see past a comfortable victory for the hosts and so the question is what’s the best way of siding with Jurgen Klopp’s charges? Given the form of Van Dijk and the purchase of Alisson as well as their excellent recent home defensive record and being the only side with an immaculate defensive record so far this term, it’s the home win to nil that we prefer at a marginally bigger price than the -2 Asian Handicap, though we wouldn’t put anyone off backing both.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Liverpool Win to Nil at $1.76


Watford v Crystal Palace

August 26th, 10.30pm AEST

It’s been an excellent start for Watford, who’ve beaten Brighton 2-0 and won 3-1 at Burnley last time out. Next, they host a Palace side that were beaten 2-0 at home by Liverpool in their latest outing, having won 2-0 at Fulham in their opening game. That was the Eagles’ first defeat in eight games and against much easier opposition, they look a touch too big at the current odds.

The visitors have won three of five unbeaten road games, including a 0-0 draw here at the end of last season, whilst they’re W4-D6-L0 when travelling to bottom-half opponents since the start of last term. With that in mind, we think they can pick up at least a point here against a Watford side that we expect to struggle this season, despite their promising start.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Crystal Palace 0 Asian Handicap at $2.1


Newcastle v Chelsea

August 27th, 1.00am AEST

Maurizio Sarri’s had an excellent start to his Chelsea tenure and he’s already delivered the attacking brand of football expected, as the Blues have scored six goals across their two victories. Newcastle on the other hand, are yet to win, as they were beaten 2-1 at home to Spurs on the opening weekend, while they played out a goalless draw in Cardiff last time out.

Eden Hazard is edging towards full fitness having been reduced to a substitute’s role so far and that spells danger for Newcastle because he’s looked electric in his 43 minutes of game time. Should Chelsea triumph though, it’s likely to be a narrow victory as Newcastle haven’t lost any of their last six home games against top-six opponents by more than a single goal. 2-1 was the score in three of Chelsea’s 10 away wins last term and we wouldn’t put anyone off chancing that outcome again but we’re backing the Chelsea win by one goal to keep the 1-0 on side, as that’s been the case in all Newcastle’s last five defeats at St James’ Park.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea Win by One Goal at $3.3


Manchester United v Tottenham

August 28th, 5.00am AEST

Man Utd were beaten 3-2 at Brighton last time out and so are on something of a retrieval mission as they host Spurs, who made it two from two with their 3-1 victory over Fulham. Utd are a very different proposition at home though, as they’ve now won 16 of 20 games at Old Trafford since the start of last season, including four of five games against fellow top-six opponents with the exception against Man City. They’re generally tight encounters, as you’d expect under Mourinho, with each of their four victories with the Big Six by just a single goal. Indeed, Spurs have lost each of their four visits to Old Trafford since the start of the 2014/15 season, with the last three of these finishing 1-0.

Spurs lost at both Manchester clubs and Arsenal last term and so Utd look a massive price to us. They have to be the bet at the prices and we may well see a repeat of last season when Utd followed up a 2-1 defeat at Huddersfield with a 1-0 home win over Spurs themselves. Indeed, Utd also bounced back from a 0-1 defeat at Newcastle last term, before going on to beat Chelsea 2-1 at Old Trafford in their next game and so we’re siding with Mourinho’s men and for those looking for something at a slightly bigger price, we’d recommend the 1-0 correct score or the Utd Win by one goal.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man United to Win at 2.70

Crystal Palace v Liverpool

August 21st, 5.00am AEST

Both these sides started off with victories as Palace won 2-0 at Fulham whilst Liverpool cruised to a 4-0 triumph at home to West Ham. That result continues an excellent run for Palace as they’ve won their last four and are unbeaten seven. Indeed, Liverpool are the last side to beat them as they came from behind to win 2-1 at Selhurst Park. We expect this to be a similarly close-fought encounter and so are surprised to see Liverpool at a shorter price here than Utd are at Brighton.

Palace have lost only five of 17 home games under Roy Hodgson (W7-D5-L5) and managed a win over Chelsea and a draw with City last term, whilst Liverpool and Utd came from behind to win by a single goal and Spurs edged them out 1-0 in a close encounter too. Liverpool failed to win at the likes of West Brom, Swansea, Newcastle and Watford last term and so they look too short to us. They’ve won only two of their last 10 away games by more than one goal, both at bottom-six opponents, and so we’re siding with Palace on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Crystal Palace +1.25 Asian Handicap at 1.91


Everton v Southhampton

August 19th, 12.00am AEST

Everton were impressive on the opening day, despite not getting a win at Wolves, as they overcame a red card to Phil Jagielka in the first half to take a 2-1 lead before Wolves netted an 80th minute equaliser. Southampton were involved in a far less entertaining encounter as they drew 0-0 at home to Burnley as they continue to struggle for goals.

For all their problems last term, Everton won 10 of their 19 home games and if we exclude sides that finished above them they were W10-D2-L0. The Saints won only three times on their travels last term, with two coming against relegated West Brom and Swansea and another over Palace during their disastrous start to the season, as they netted just 17 away goals in total. Everton have an excellent record in this fixture at Goodison Park, winning four of six unbeaten meetings since 2012/13 and we’re expecting them to make it five from seven, inspired by Richarlison, who’s hit the ground running for his new club.

Betting Strategy

 BACK- Everton to Win at 2.04


Tottenham v Fulham

August 19th, 12.00am AEST

It was a disappointing return to the Premier League for Fulham, who were beaten 2-0 on the opening day at home to Crystal Palace and they face a far trickier London derby here as they travel to Spurs, who managed to win 2-1 at Newcastle despite concerns that some of their players involved in the latter stages of the World Cup would be undercooked.

With their new stadium not quite ready it takes place at Wembley where Spurs won 13 of their 19 games last term and they have an excellent record against promoted teams, having won 27 of 30 unbeaten games against such teams since 2013/14 and all 15 at home, remarkably keeping 12 clean sheets across these and leading at the break in nine of these victories. Indeed, eight of the nine wins since 2015/16 were without conceding and so we’re backing Spurs to win to nil, as they’ve done in six of their last eight games at Wembley.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Spurs to Win to Nil at 2.15


Chelsea v Arsenal

August 19th, 2.30am AEST

It was a tough start for Unai Emery as his side were beaten 2-0 at the Emirates by Man City and it doesn’t get any easier for them as they travel to Chelsea, who began their campaign with a comfy 3-0 win at Huddersfield. Arsenal failed to win on the road in 2018 before they won at Huddersfield on the final day last term and historically struggle when travelling to ‘Big Six’ sides as they’re W2-D7-L16 in such fixtures since 2013/14 and have lost eight of 10 winless games since 2016/17.

Five of those eight defeats were by more than one goal whilst they have a poor record at Stamford Bridge in particular. They’ve lost seven of nine trips here since 2009/10, with six of those defeats by more than one goal as they failed to score in six and trailed at the break in seven. Chelsea, on the other hand, have won 15 of 25 home matches against Big Six opponents since 2013/14 and so we’re with the Blues in this one.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chelsea -0.75 Asian Handicap at 2.07


Man City v Huddersfield

August 19th, 10.30pm AEST

Man City weren’t at their best on the opening day but they nonetheless won 2-0 at Arsenal and they should have no problems making it two from two as they host a Huddersfield side that were thumped 3-0 at home to Chelsea. City won 16 of 19 home games last term and whilst Huddersfield were one of the teams that stopped the Citizens from winning at the Etihad, the title was already wrapped up and the Terriers were fighting for their survival, so we can’t see them repeating the feat.

When hosting the bottom-three, City won 7-2 against Stoke, West Brom 3-0 and Swansea 5-0 and that’s certainly looking like where Huddersfield will end up. David Wagner’s men failed to score at five of the top six last term and went down 3-0 at Liverpool and 5-0 at Arsenal, and so we’re expecting another heavy defeat for them here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City -2.75 Asian Handicap at 1.87


Brighton v Manchester United

August 20th, 1.00am AEST

It was a disappointing start for Brighton as they went down 2-0 at Watford, meaning they have just one win in their last 10 games going back to the end of last season. Utd started with a comfy enough victory over Leicester and will be seeking to avenge a 1-0 defeat here last term. We’re surprised to see Utd as big a price as they are to do so and we think that away trips to the lesser sides is an area that they’ll improve upon this term.

They often struggled to break down bottom-six sides on the road last term as they lost at Huddersfield too and drew at Stoke, but with Sanchez now at the club and Pogba playing in a more advanced position, they have the quality to break down stubborn defences. Whilst Brighton had some success against the top teams at the Amex last term, they were beaten 2-0 by City, 5-1 by Liverpool and 4-0 by Chelsea. Whilst Utd may not be that emphatic in victory, we do expect them to pick up the three points.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man United to Win at 1.80

Newcastle v Tottenham

August 11th, 9.30pm AEST

Spurs won 2-0 at St. James’ Park on the opening day last term but Newcastle managed some excellent results hosting the top teams thereafter as they beat Man Utd, Arsenal and Chelsea, drew against Liverpool, whilst they were edged out 1-0 by Man City. With that in mind, Spurs look a touch short, particularly with question marks over the fitness of the likes of Lloris, Alderweireld, Vertonghen, Rose, Trippier, Dier, Dembele, Alli and Kane after each were part of sides that made it to the final weekend of the World Cup.

What’s more, Spurs have won only three of 10 opening day away games since 2006/07, losing six of them, and so at the prices we’re looking to take them on. Newcastle have lost only three of 11 opening day home games since 1995/96 and with Rafa Benitez working out how to get results against the top teams last term, we’re backing the Magpies to pick up at least a point.

Betting Strategy

 LAY – Spurs at 2.1


Huddersfield v Chelsea

August 12th, 12am AEST

Huddersfield are many people’s fancy to go down this term and they have a tough assignment to kick things off as they host Chelsea. However, the Terriers proved they were capable of beating the top teams here last term as they beat Utd 2-1. We fancy there could be another upset as they host a Chelsea side likely to be without what are arguably their three best player s in Hazard, Kante and Courtois after each went deep into the World Cup.

Chelsea have a recent history of starting slowly too as they went down 3-2 at home to Burnley last term, only won curtesy of a late winner over West Ham the year before, whilst they drew 2-2 at Stamford Bridge against Swansea on the opening day in 2015/16. They appear on the short side after what’s been a turbulent summer with doubts over the futures of Hazard and Courtois, let alone their participation in this game. Huddersfield look to have spent well in the transfer window having laid out over £40m at the time of writing and we wouldn’t be as down on their chances as others are.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Huddersfield +1 Asian Handicap at 1.96


Wolves v Everton

August 12th, 2.30am AEST

Wolves are widely expected to have a good season after they won the Championship fairly comfortably last term and brought in the likes of Rui Patricio and Joao Moutinho in the transfer window. However, against proven Premier League opposition in Everton, they look on the short side. Marco Silva looks a good appointment after he did better than most could with a dire Hull side and results with Watford only started to suffer after the instability of being linked with a move to pastures new. Meanwhile, he’s been backed substantially in the transfer window with Digne and Richarlison coming in.

Promoted teams have won only five of 30 opening games since 2008/09 and if we only look at opening fixtures against teams that finished in the top half in the season prior, their record in that period is W1-D2-L14. Everton won five of six unbeaten games against promoted teams last term, conceding just once across these, whilst they’ve remarkably lost just one of 24 matches against such sides since 2014/15 and so we’re looking to side with the Toffees.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Everton +0.25 Asian Handicap at 1.93


Liverpool v West Ham

August 12th, 10.30pm AEST

Expectations are high for West Ham after the appointment of Manuel Pellegrini and a busy transfer window that has seen Felipe Anderson, Issa Diop and Andriy Yarmolenko all join the club, whilst Jack Wilshere could prove a shrewd addition on a free transfer. A trip to Anfield on the opening day is about as tough as it gets though and will be a good indicator of where they are as a club.

Liverpool were W12-D7-L0 at Anfield last term and contrary to popular belief were excellent defensively as they kept a clean sheet in 12 of these matches. West Ham did manage to get some positive results at the top teams though as they drew at Chelsea and Spurs whilst they came close to upsetting City before they came from behind to win 2-1. Liverpool haven’t won by more than one goal on the opening day since way back in 1994/95 and so the new-look Hammers ae worth siding with +1.5 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – West Ham +1.5 Asian Handicap at 2.24


Arsenal v Manchester City

August 13th, 1am AEST

It’s a baptism of fire for Unai Emery as he begins his tenure by hosting champions Man City, who are odds-on to retain their title. For all their struggles last term, the Gunners had an excellent W15-D2-L2 record at the Emirates, though their defeats did come against the Manchester clubs. That was one of 16 away wins for City last term and the Citizens are generally excellent starters, having won their opening game in each of the last seven seasons with a combined score of 20-3.

Arsenal, on the other hand, have won only two of eight opening matches since 2010/11, including home defeats against Liverpool, West Ham and Aston Villa. They have concerns in defence with Kolasinac, Monreal and Koscielny all unlikely to feature and that leaves them short at left back, with it not immediately obvious who could step in. City won 3-0 here last term and whilst they may not be as emphatic in victory here, they look a fair price to kick off the campaign with a win.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man City Win at 2.02


Manchester United v Leicester

August 11th, 5am AEST

United enter the season under a cloud following some strange comments from Mourinho in pre-season but they have a relatively straightforward assignment to start the season as they host a Mahrez-less Leicester. The Red Devils had an excellent home record last term as they won 15 of their 19 games (W15-D2-L2), including each of their first five without conceding.

Indeed, one of those was a 2-0 win over Leicester themselves and we could envisage something similar here. The Foxes have picked up only two points from 12 trips to top-six opponents since 2016/17, conceding more than twice in half of these matches. Jamie Vardy and Harry Maguire are unlikely to feature having only returned to training this week and so they may well struggle to challenge the Utd back line. We like both the win to nil and Utd -1 on the Asian Handicap but with Leicester managing to net in eight of those 12 trips to the Big Six, we’ll opt for the latter.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Man Utd -1 Asian Handicap at 1.86

 


Extra Betting Resources

If you’re looking to improve your Soccer Betting, we recommend checking out the following resources as well:


EPL Futures Markets

Winner

Top Goal Scorer

To be Relegated


Related Articles

EPL Predictions Model

Betfair’s internal team of Data Scientists have created an EPL Predictions Model. The EPL model automatically pulls data dating back ...

Read More

The Impact of the International Break and How to Profit

The International break means two weeks off for the major European leagues. Some welcome it, while others despise it. ...

Read More

Risk of Ruin

A few weeks ago we received an email advertising a tipster with the title ‘Exploding the Myth: Making Money ...

Read More