Shortlist: The Open Cheltenham Day 3, Saturday 12th November 2016

Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices’ Hurdle (Sharp) (Grade 2) (1) 2m87y 11:45pm

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 151 149 157 165 154 (Avg 155)

Betting Forecast

$3.125 Ballyandy, $3.25 Moon Racer, $6.5 Keep In Line, $8 Movewiththetimes, $13 Mirsaale, $26 What About Carlo, $67 bar

Analyst’s Verdict

A hot Grade 2 as ever and Keep In Line could make it 3 from 3 in this sphere after a couple of bloodless victories at Huntingdon and Bangor for his new yard. The last 2 Champion Bumper winners Ballyandy and Moon Racer clash again defending unbeaten Cheltenham records and Nigel Twiston-Davies’ charge could reverse the Perth placings on these revised terms.

Racing Post Arkle Trophy Trial Novices’ Chase (November) (Grade 2) (1) 1m7f199y 12:20am

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 172 175 163 160 165 (Avg 167)

Betting Forecast

$2 Le Prezien, 5.5 Some Plan, 7 Hammersly Lake, 9 Three Stars, 19 Mick Thonic, 21 Flying Angel

Analyst’s Verdict

In the absence of Altior, the way looks clear for Le Prezien to stake an early claim for a place in the Arkle back here in March. The 5-y-o made good strides over hurdles last season and lost little caste in defeat when runner-up on his chase debut at Uttoxeter where he jumped with aplomb. Some Plan and Hammersly Lake can do battle for minor honours.

Shloer Chase (Cheltenham) (Grade 2) (1) 1m7f199y 12:55am

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 175 181 176 178 196 (Avg 181)

Betting Forecast

$4.33 Fox Norton, $4.5 Simonsig, $5 Special Tiara, $6 Top Gamble, $12 Simply Ned, $23 Savello, $26 Module, Just Cameron

Analyst’s Verdict

Special Tiara might have run below form when last seen in April, but he’s done enough over the past few years to think he’ll bounce right back and he’s the one to beat if he does. Simonsig and Fox Norton are others to consider.

stanjames.com Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (1) 2m87y 1:30am

Betting Forecast

$4.5 Winter Escape, $9 Modus, $11 Leoncavallo, $13 Brain Power, Sternrubin, $17 North Hill Harvey, Ch’tibello, A Hare Breath, $21 Mad Jack Mytton, $23 Hargam, John Constable, $29 Wolf of Windlesham, Cyrius Moriviere, $34 Rossetti, $41 bar

Analyst’s Verdict

Modus got his career firmly back on track when a promising third on his Ascot reappearance and might represent a bit of value against the same owner’s Winter Escape, who looks sure to make a bold bid to maintain his unbeaten record but looks short enough for a race like this. Leoncavallo is respected on the back of a good run here last month, while Mad Jack Mytton could go well at bigger odds.

White Christmas Parties At Cheltenham Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (Qualifier) (3) 2m5f26y 2:05am

Betting Forecast

$9 Clonalig House, $11 Looksnowtlikebrian, $13 Zara Hope, Call To Order, $15 Behind Time, $17 Ballyarthur, Chic Theatre, Solomn Grundy, $21 Benenden, Star Trouper, Master Dancer, $26 Mahlers Star, My Wigwam Or Yours, Max Forte, $34 Altesse de Guye, Anteros, Chebsey Beau, Baron du Plessis, $41 bar

Analyst’s Verdict

Clonalig House won in the style of one who has plenty more to offer at Musselburgh last week, and he’s the type to relish a big-field scenario given the way he travels, so a 7 Ib rise may not be enough to stop him. Ballyarthur doesn’t have the experience of some of these, but has the potential to win races off this mark, as does Behind Time. Call To Order and Solomn Grundy make up the shortlist.

Jockey Club Ownership Syndicate Standard Open National Hunt Flat (Listed) (1) 2m87y 2:40am

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 130 139 138 137 136 (Avg 136)

Betting Forecast

$3.75 Brahms de Clermont, $6 Sumkindofking, $6.5 Bags Groove, $12 Boreham Bill, $15 Poetic Rhythm, $17 Woodfort, $26 Mountain Rock, Allez Sea, $29 Gustave Mahler, Imperial Eloquence, $34 Mere Ironmonger, La Cavsa Nostra, $41 bar

Analyst’s Verdict

Brahms de Clermont has looked a class act in winning both starts to date and, given he has the advantage of track experience over the majority, there’s no obvious reason to oppose him in his hat-trick bid. Sumkindofking is the potential big improver after a hugely impressive debut and Bags Groove is a pretty solid option.


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