Rugby World Cup Odds and Tips

The penultimate affair – and the ultimate letdown match – of the World Cup sees New Zealand and Wales battle for third-place in the playoff neither team wants to be in.

History
New Zealand and Wales have played in 20 Tests with the All Blacks winning 17 of those. New Zealand have not lost to Wales since 1953, recording 16 straight wins. The teams have met nine times this decade with eight of those wins coming by 14 or more. There have been three meetings at the World Cup with New Zealand winning by margins of 43, 25 and 16.

Rugby World Cup Record
The All Blacks were the two-time defending champions, the No.1 team in the world and semi-finalists in eight of nine World Cups before being shocked by England in a semi-final for the ages. New Zealand are 48-7 in World Cup history. New Zealand have played three times in the third-place game with two wins and a loss, most recently defeating France in the game in 2003 40-13.

Wales have played at all eight World Cups, reaching the semis three times along with the quarter-finals on three other occasions but have never reached a final. They are 26-17 all-time in World Cup play. They had not finished top of their group since 1987 before winning Pool D at this World Cup. Wales won the third-place game in 1987 but went down in the match in 2011.

Recent Form
New Zealand had lost just five of 36 Tests since the start of 2017. They opened the World Cup with an impressive win over main tournament rivals South Africa before crushing wins over Canada by 63 points and Namibia by 62. The All Blacks completely decimated Ireland in the quarters with a 46-14 scoreline before being comprehensively beaten by England in the semi-final.

Wales ended a five-season Six Nations drought this year, winning the Grand Slam. They dropped three of five Tests leading into the World Cup but comfortably rolled through their pool, defeating Georgia before rolling Australia, Fiji and Uruguay. Wales needed to come-from-behind to roll a 14-man France 20-19 in an epic quarter-final before a gutty effort came up short in the semi against South Africa.

Forecast
This match is all in the hands of the All Blacks. If they are up for this match, they will whip Wales. With Steve Hansen saying goodbye and the nation renowned for its pride, expect them to show up.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – New Zealand -18.5

Wales were mighty lucky to sneak by France in the quarters while South Africa ground out an impressive win over hosts Japan to demand favouritism for this affair.

History
Wales and South Africa have met 35 times in Test rugby with the Springboks winning 28 times with Wales recording just six victories. The Welsh have won the last four though for their longest winning streak against the Springboks, dating back to 2016. Three of those wins came in Cardiff with the other in the United States. The nations have met at the last two World Cups with South Africa winning 17-16 in 2011 and 23-19 in the 2015 quarters.

Rugby World Cup Record
Wales have played at all eight World Cups, reaching the semis in 1987 and 2011 along with the quarter-finals on three other occasions. They are 26-16 all-time in World Cup play. They had not finished top of their group since 1987 before winning Pool D at this World Cup. Wales have yet to reach a World Cup final.

South Africa have played in six World Cups for two titles and two further semi-final appearances prior to this one. They are 34-6 all-time at the World Cup. South Africa are 11-3 all-time in World Cup knockout matches.

Recent Form
Wales ended a five-season Six Nations drought this year, winning the Grand Slam. They dropped three of five Tests leading into the World Cup but comfortably rolled through their pool, defeating Georgia before rolling Australia, Fiji and Uruguay. Wales needed to come-from-behind to roll a 14-man France 20-19 in an epic quarter-final. Wales have conceded at least 13 points in all five of their World Cup games.

South Africa did not lose in five Tests this year leading into the World Cup. They thumped all opposition at the World Cup after a close loss to New Zealand in the tournament opener and had absolutely no concern in their quarter-final against hosts Japan, winning 26-3. The Springboks have conceded just 16 points in their last four matches.

Forecast
This semi projects as low-scoring and tight so taking the 7.5 points and siding with Wales is a no-brainer. Wales can win this straight out but there is a concern that the occasion will get to them having never reached a World Cup final. For South Africa, that is no concern. Both teams are strong defensive outfits though and an upset here would not shock.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Wales +7.5

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World Cup semi-finals don’t come more salivating than this with the almighty All Blacks set to tackle the in-form England.

History
New Zealand have played England 41 times in the Test arena with England winning just seven encounters. The All Blacks have won six straight and 15 of the last 16 Tests between the two countries. Five of the last six Tests have been decided by eight points or fewer. New Zealand and England have met three times at the World Cup with the All Blacks winning all three, most recently at the 1999 World Cup. The teams have met in the knockout stage once with New Zealand winning 45-29 in the 1995 semi-final.

Rugby World Cup Record
The All Blacks are the two-time defending champions, the No.1 team in the world and semi-finalists in seven of eight World Cups. New Zealand are 48-6 in World Cup history while they have won five of their last seven knockout World Cup games by 14 points or more. The All Blacks are 4-3 all-time in World Cup semis.

England are three-time finalists at the Rugby World Cup, winning it all in 2003. England are 38-13 all-time in World Cup play. England have won two of their last five World Cup matches against SANZAR opposition. England are 3-1 in World Cup semis.

Recent Form
New Zealand had lost just five of 36 Tests since the start of 2017. They opened the World Cup with an impressive win over main tournament rivals South Africa before crushing wins over Canada by 63 points and Namibia by 62. The All Blacks completely decimated Ireland in the quarters with a 46-14 scoreline that flattered Ireland. They have conceded just three tries in Japan.

England have lost just two of their last 15 Tests with both those defeats coming at the hands of Wales. They have conceded just three tries in four appearances in Japan in four comfortable wins, including an annihilation of Australia in the quarters.

Forecast
This is a great World Cup semi-final. There is no doubt the All Blacks bring a legacy unparalleled but England have played them close of late and can keep this one close. An upset off the stick would not surprise. Eddie Jones is one of the great tacticians in world rugby and England are arguably more seasoned for this with their 2019 campaign. The big start here is most compelling.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – England +7.5

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The fairytale of Japan continues when they play in their first World Cup semi against the mighty South Africa.

History
Japan and South Africa have met just twice previously with Japan pulling off one of the great World Cup upsets when winning 34-32 at the last World Cup before the Springboks won 41-7 in their final hit-out before the World Cup.

Rugby World Cup Record
Japan were 4-2-22 at the Rugby World Cup leading into this tournament and had never reached the knockout stage of a World Cup before their home tournament. They have now won seven of their last eight World Cup games.

South Africa have played in six World Cups for two titles and two further semi-final appearances. They are 33-6 all-time at the World Cup. South Africa have nine wins of 40-plus since the 2003 World Cup.

Recent Form
Japan have been outstanding at the World Cup with four wins from four games at their home tournament including stunning upsets of Ireland and Scotland. Japan have scored 28-plus in three of four World Cup games.

South Africa did not lose in five Tests this year leading into the World Cup. They thumped all opposition at the World Cup after a close loss to New Zealand in the tournament opener.

Forecast
Japan have pulled off a couple of mighty upsets but things are getting mighty real now. South Africa are arguably the main threat to the All Blacks and they will not take Japan lightly after the last World Cup. The Springboks have made a habit in piling up scores at this World Cup and in what shapes as an open affair, should be able to down Japan easily.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – South Africa -14.5

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Wales and France will contest what looks like the closest of the quarter finals with the smallest line and lowest total making it an eagerly anticipated affair.

History
Wales hold a 50-44-3 all-time advantage over Six Nations rival France. Wales have completely dominated Les Bleus in recent years though with seven wins in the last eight meetings. While Wales have racked up win after win, eight of the last nine have been decided by 10 points or fewer. Only one of the last 15 meetings has topped 43 points. The teams have met just once at the World Cup with France winning the 2011 semi-final 9-8.

Rugby World Cup Record
Wales have played at all eight World Cups, reaching the semis in 1987 and 2011 along with the quarter-finals on three other occasions. They are 25-16 all-time in World Cup play. They had not finished top of their group since 1987 before winning Pool D at this World Cup.

France have played in three World Cup finals and played in five World Cup semis but have never lifted the William Webb Ellis Trophy. France are 36-9-2 at the World Cup but are coming off a World Cup where their five straight tournaments reaching the semis ended.

Recent Form
Wales ended a five-season Six Nations drought this year, winning the Grand Slam. They dropped three of five Tests leading into the World Cup but comfortably defeated Georgia before rolling Australia, Fiji and Uruguay. Wales conceded at least 13 points in all four of their World Cup games.

France had been poor leading into the World Cup with just five wins in their last 15 Tests. Four of those wins have come against Italy and Scotland. They won all three pool games though before their England washout though they were pushed by both Argentina and Tonga.

Forecast
This has all the hallmarks of a tight, fierce contest. These two are old rivals renowned for their conservative brand of football. France have been well below Wales during the last cycle but they have a knack for lifting at the World Cup. The points look good.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – France +6.5

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New Zealand’s march towards an historic third straight World Cup faces its biggest hurdle to date with a knockout matchup against Ireland.

History
New Zealand have lost just two of their 31 all-time matches against Ireland. Those two Irish wins have remarkably come in the last three meetings against the All Blacks. Five of the last six Tests have been decided by 12 points or fewer. The nations have met just once at the Rugby World Cup with New Zealand winning by 24 points back in 1995.

Rugby World Cup Record
The All Blacks are the two-time defending champions, the No.1 team in the world and semi-finalists in seven of eight World Cups. New Zealand are 47-6 in World Cup history while they have won four of their last six knockout World Cup games by 14 points or more.

Ireland have been the great underachievers at the World Cup, stunningly never advancing past the quarter finals, getting knocked out at the first round of the knockout stage in seven of eight World Cups. Ireland are 24-15 at the World Cup.

Recent Form
New Zealand have lost just five of 36 Tests since the start of 2017. They opened the World Cup with an impressive win over main tournament rivals South Africa before crushing wins over Canada by 63 points and Namibia by 62. They have conceded just a single try in Japan.

Ireland were in outstanding form heading into the World Cup, winning 24 of their 27 Tests before the big dance. They have been poor at the World Cup though with a shocking loss to hosts Japan and some worrying attacking shows.

Forecast
Ireland have won two of the last three against the All Blacks but this is the World Cup, where Steve Hansen’s men are at their best and Irish eyes are rarely smiling. Ireland are not playing nearly well enough to compete with New Zealand. It would not surprise if the margin here ended north of 40.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – New Zealand -11.5

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The opening quarter final of this star-crossed World Cup could not be more enticing with England and Australia doing battle in a rivalry as old as time itself.

History
England and Australia first met in 1909 with the Wallabies holding a minor 25-24-1 edge. England have won both games played on neutral turf. England are currently in the throes of their longest winning streak over Australia, having won the last six. Five of those six wins have been by double digits.

England have won 10 of the last 12 meetings against the Wallabies. England and Australia have met six times at the World Cup with Australia downing England in the 1991 final and England beating Australia on home turf in the 2003 decider. Australia won the last World Cup meeting 33-13 in 2015.

Rugby World Cup Record
England are three-time finalists at the Rugby World Cup, winning it all in 2003. England are 37-13 all-time in World Cup play. England have won just 1 of their last 4 World Cup matches against SANZAR opposition while they have not won a finals match at the World Cup since their semi-final victory at the 2007 World Cup.

Australia have won two World Cups, most recently in 1999, and have lost in the final in two of the last four World Cups. The Wallabies are 41-9 in World Cup play and are 13-7 in World Cup knockout stage matches.

Recent Form
England have lost just two of their last 14 Tests with both those defeats coming at the hands of Wales. They have conceded just two tries in their three appearances in Japan in three comfortable wins, the most impressive being a 29-point demolition of Argentina.

Australia entered the World Cup with just seven wins from their prior 20 Tests though that included a win over the All Blacks in August. The Wallabies got past Fiji, Uruguay and Georgia comfortably as expected but went down to Wales in their only major test.

Forecast
England are a far superior team to Australia. They have dominated them in recent years. They have a chip on their shoulder after their performance at the last World Cup. Eddie Jones knows all of Australia’s secrets. This one should be one-way traffic.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – England -7.5

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The Wallabies finish their pool phase with a game against plucky Georgia.

History
This is the first meeting between Australia and Georgia.

Rugby World Cup Record
Australia have won two World Cups, most recently in 1999, and have lost in the final in two of the last four World Cups. The Wallabies are 28-3 all-time in pool matches. Georgia first qualified for the Rugby World Cup in 2003 and won their first match in 2007. They have not advanced past the pool stages and are 5-14 in World Cup play.

Recent Form
Australia entered the World Cup with just seven wins from their prior 20 Tests though that included a win over the All Blacks in August. The Wallabies got past Fiji and were 35-point winners over Uruguay along with a close loss to Wales. The Wallabies have just five wins in their last 23 Tests by more than 15 points.

Georgia won 15 of 20 Tests leading into the World Cup including wins against Samoa and Tonga. Their World Cup has gone as expected with losses to Wales and Fiji (both by 29-plus points) and a comfortable win over Uruguay.

Forecast
Georgia’s performance against Fiji after they were heavily supported is perhaps indicative that the standard of their play is not quite up to where many pundits fancied. The Wallabies have little to play for but should have few problems in this one with a cover on the cards.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Australia -22.5

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The All Blacks will round out another undefeated pool campaign against an Italian team likely headed home on the backend of another New Zealand hiding.

History
New Zealand have won all 14 Tests against Italy with nine of those wins by 49 or more and only three games finishing within 32 points. The teams have met twice since 2012 with the All Blacks winning by margins of 58 and 63, both in Rome.

Rugby World Cup Record
The All Blacks are the two-time defending champions, the No.1 team in the world and semi-finalists in seven of eight World Cups. New Zealand are 47-6 in World Cup history while they have won 27 straight pool games by double digits.

Italy have played at every World Cup but have yet to advance beyond the pool stage. They are 11-18 in World Cup play and have never won more than two games at a single World Cup.

Recent Form
New Zealand have lost just five of 36 Tests since the start of 2017. They opened the World Cup with an impressive win over main tournament rivals South Africa before crushing wins over Canada by 63 points and Namibia by 62. They have conceded just a single try in Japan.

Italy opened the World Cup with two straight wins, dominating Namibia and Canada, before going down by 46 points to South Africa. They had won just 1 of 11 in the leadup though with that win against Russia. They have lost seven Tests since 2017 by 37 or more.

Forecast
The All Blacks have not covered either of their last two with conditions and officiating making big covers difficult. The line to beat here though is very attainable and the All Blacks have thumped Italy in their last two meetings.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – New Zealand -39.5

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Old rivals England and France playoff in the final Pool C match with top spot and a quarter-final clash with the Wallabies on the line.

History
The Anglo-French international rugby rivalry dates back to 1906 with England winning 58 of the 105 Tests. France have won 40 with seven matches drawn. France have won two of the three matches played on neutral turf. England won the Six Nations clash between the two nations this season 44-8 and have claimed success in 11 of the last 16 meetings. Close matches have been the order of the day with 11 of the last 13 matches decided by 10 points or fewer.

Rugby World Cup Record
England are three-time finalists at the Rugby World Cup, winning it all in 2003. England are 37-13 all-time in World Cup play. England have lost their last two meetings at the World Cup against Six Nations opposition with no win greater than five points in their last five meetings.

France have played in three World Cup finals and played in five World Cup semis but have never lifted the William Webb Ellis Trophy. They are 11-8 across the last three Cups with a quarter-final elimination at the 2015 World Cup.

Recent Form
England have lost just two of their last 14 Tests with both those defeats coming at the hands of Wales. They have conceded just two tries in their three appearances in Japan in three comfortable wins, the most impressive being a 29-point demolition of Argentina.

France were poor leading into the World Cup with just five wins in their last 15 Tests. Four of those wins have come against Italy and Scotland. They opened the World Cup with three wins that included a key win over Argentina, a comfortable win over the USA and a lucky hold-on against Tonga.

Forecast
France have been only fair this World Cup but happy to take the big start in a clash against rivals England. They typically lift at the World Cup and these matches are usually tight. Getting 12.5 points is a play.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – France +12.5

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Wales can put an iron grip on Pool D while Fiji need to win to keep their flickering hopes of the knockout stage alive.

History
Wales have lost just one of 11 all-time meetings with Fiji but five of the last six meetings have been decided by 10 points or fewer. Seven of the last 10 meetings have failed to surpass 37 total points.

Rugby World Cup Record
Wales have played at all eight World Cups, reaching the semis in 1987 and 2011 along with the quarter-finals on three other occasions. They are 22-16 all-time in World Cup play. They have not finished top of their group since 1987.

Fiji have been at every World Cup bar 1995, advancing past the pool stages three times, most recently in 2007. They have gone 1-3 at each of their last two World Cups with their wins coming against Namibia and Uruguay.

Recent Form
Wales ended a five-season Six Nations drought this year, winning the Grand Slam. They dropped three of five Tests leading into the World Cup but comfortably defeated Georgia before rolling Australia.

Fiji won their last three Tests and five of their last six leading into the World Cup, including a win over France last year. They have disappointed this World Cup though with a shock loss to Uruguay and a defeat to the Wallabies, along with a comfortable win over Georgia.

Forecast
The plus here seems more than tempting. Fiji were very impressive against Georgia and Wales may have an eye on the playoffs now. Fiji play Wales tight so happy to take the big start.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Fiji +15.5

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England get their first genuine Test of the World Cup when they tackle Argentina.

History
England and Argentina have met on 23 occasions with England holding an 18-4-1 advantage. England have won 10 on end since 2009 with six of the last seven by margins of 13-plus.

Rugby World Cup Record
England are three-time finalists at the Rugby World Cup, winning it all in 2003. They will have redemption on their minds though after being stunningly eliminated in the pool stages of their home World Cup. England are 36-13 all-time in World Cup play.

Argentina have reached the semis at two of the last three World Cups as they have become a force over the last decade. The Pumas have won 11 of their last 14 pool games.

Recent Form
England have lost just two of their last 13 Tests with both those defeats coming at the hands of Wales. They have conceded just a single try in their two appearances in Japan in two comfortable wins.

Argentina’s recent form has been very poor with just three wins in their last 22 Tests leading into the World Cup. They subsequently lost to France before an unconvincing win over Tonga.

Forecast
The Pumas have been dreadfully disappointing for a long time so more than happy to back England -13.5 here. England are far superior technically while Argentina are all over the shop, particularly with their once-renowned defence.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – England -13.5

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After a heartbreaking defeat to Wales, Australia will be looking to put the sword to giant-killers Uruguay.

History
The only meeting between the two teams was a 65-3 victory by the Wallabies at the 2015 World Cup.

Rugby World Cup Record
Australia are two-time World Cup champions but have not lifted the trophy since the halcyon days of 1999, losing the final in 2003 and 2015.

The Wallabies are 27-3 all-time in pool matches following their loss to Wales. Uruguay are playing at their fourth World Cup and have a 2-11 all-time record, never advancing beyond the pool stage.

Recent Form
Australia entered the World Cup with just seven wins in their last 20 Tests prior to their Japan expedition.They had few issues against Fiji in their World Cup opener but were beaten by Wales in a disappointing result.

Uruguay stunned Fiji in their World Cup opener and did not lose any admirers in a gritty loss to Georgia.

Forecast
Australia will not take any chances on this one after the loss to Wales. Uruguay look to be in line for a fair hammering with the minus presenting excellent value.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Australia -50.5

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South Africa are looking to put a vice grip on second spot in Pool B when they take on undefeated Italy.

History
South Africa are 13-1 all-time against Italy but suffered a shock 20-18 defeat in Florence in 2016. Only two of the last nine clashes between the nations have resulted in Springbok wins of 30 or more points.

Rugby World Cup Record
South Africa have played in six World Cups for two titles and two further semi-final appearances. They are 31-6 all-time at the World Cup. South Africa have seven wins of 40-plus since the 2003 World Cup.

Italy have played at every World Cup but have yet to advance beyond the pool stage. They are 11-17 in World Cup play and have never won more than two games at a single World Cup.

Recent Form
After a down period following the last World Cup, South Africa are ascendant, not losing in five Tests this year. The Springboks have lost just four of their last 14 Tests. They have opened the World Cup with a close loss to New Zealand followed by a dominant win over Namibia but failed to cover each line.

Italy have opened the World Cup with two straight wins, dominating Namibia and Canada. They had won just one of 11 in the leadup though with that win against Russia. They have lost six Tests since 2017 by 37 or more.

Forecast
South Africa project as the most overrated big-name team at this World Cup, at least from a betting perspective. Italy have started hot and have a strong recent showing against South Africa. Willing to back the cover here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Italy +27.5

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New Zealand look set to run in a big score against lowly Canada as the two-time defending champions look set to threaten the ton.

History
New Zealand have won all five Tests against Canada with the last four all by 51-plus points. The last meeting was a 64-point win in Wellington during the 2011 World Cup.

Rugby World Cup Record
The All Blacks are the two-time defending champions, the No.1 team in the world and semi-finalists in seven of eight World Cups. New Zealand are 45-6 in World Cup history while they have won 25 straight pool games by double digits. The All Blacks have won just six of their 51 World Cup matches by 67 points or greater. Canada have played at all eight World Cups, advancing past the pool stages in just 1991. They are 7-20-2 all-time and have just a single win from their last 12 games across the last three tournaments.

Recent Form
New Zealand have lost just five of 34 Tests since the start of 2017. They have won just four of six Tests this year but have tended to flatten their form leading into a World Cup so that is of little concern. They opened the World Cup with an impressive win over main tournament rivals South Africa. Canada have been in awful form with just a single win – against Chile – in nine Tests this year. They do not have a single loss of 40-plus though across the last three years.

Forecast
The only interest in this game is from a line perspective as the All Blacks won’t be challenged here. Happy to bet Canada to cover the mammoth line though. The All Blacks have generally not destroyed teams across the last three World Cups and Canada will lift for this game more than any other.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Canada +67.5

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Second place in Pool A is likely on the line when Scotland and Samoa square off in Kobe.

History
Scotland and Samoa have met 11 times with Scotland winning nine times, Samoa once and a draw back in 1995. Samoa’s win came recently, back in 2013. The last six games have been decided by 10 points or fewer. Scotland have won all three World Cup matches against Samoa.

Rugby World Cup Record
Scotland have reached the knockout stages in seven of eight World Cups, advancing to the semis just once, back in 1991. Scotland have won just six of their last 12 World Cup games but four of their last five six have been by seven points or fewer. Samoa made their World Cup debut back in 1991 and have featured at every tournament since. They reached the quarter finals at the first two World Cups before being dropped at the pool stages at the last four. They are 13-14 in World Cup play.

Recent Form
Scotland have won just three of their last nine with two of those wins coming against Georgia. Scotland’s only win in this year’s Six Nations came against Italy and they were no match for Ireland in their World Cup opener. Samoa opened their World Cup with a win over Russia but needed a late flurry of tries to do so. Samoa are 5-14 since the start of 2017 with a win over Tonga their only recognised win in that period.

Forecast
Samoa are not hopeless in this one and can be bet at the line and at the big price. Scotland were ordinary against Ireland and have shown no semblance of form. Samoa have played Scotland close over the last decade. This line is far too big.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Samoa +15.5

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Australia v Wales

The defining match of Pool D, Wales and Australia ranks among the highlights of the second weekend of action.

History
Australia have lost just two of their last 28 Tests against Wales dating back to 1991 though one of those losses came against the Six Nations champions in November last year. The nations have met at six World Cups with Australia winning five, losing just the third-place playoff at the inaugural World Cup in 1987.

Rugby World Cup Record
Australia are two-time World Cup champions but have not lifted the trophy since the halcyon days of 1999, losing the final in 2003 and 2015. The Wallabies are 27-2 all-time in pool matches following their 39-21 win over Fiji in their tournament opener. Wales have played at all eight World Cups, reaching the semis in 1987 and 2011 along with the quarter-finals on three other occasions. They are 21-16 all-time in World Cup play. They have not finished top of their group since 1987.

Recent Form
Australia entered the World Cup with just seven wins in their last 20 Tests prior to their Japan expedition. A win over the All Blacks in August was impressive and showed Australia’s upside but the Wallabies were on the ropes for long periods against Fiji and will need to show improvement. Wales put to bed a five-season Six Nations drought this year, winning the Grand Slam. They have dropped three of five Tests since though including two losses to Ireland and a loss to England at Twickenham. Their opening World Cup match was a comfortable win over Georgia. They have been held to 21 or fewer in six of eight Tests.

Forecast
History makes Australia the play in this one. The Wallabies have dominated Wales for a quarter-century and they look to have the edge here. Wales slipped after their Six Nations dominance and in a World Cup year, it is unclear how hard the other home nations were going. The Wallabies are peaking at the right time and have more upside than Wales

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Australia

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England v USA

England had few problems disposing of Tonga in their World Cup opener but will be disappointed in not putting them to the sword while the USA look to face their stiffest test first-up.

History

England and the USA have met five times with England winning all five. Four of those wins though have come by 29 points or fewer with the most recent result an 18-point victory at the 2007 World Cup.

Rugby World Cup Record

England are three-time finalists at the Rugby World Cup, winning it all in 2003. They will have redemption on their minds though after being stunningly eliminated in the pool stages of their home World Cup. England are 32-13 all-time in World Cup play with only two of their last 19 World Cup matches resulting in wins of 40-plus.

The USA have qualified for seven of the eight World Cups to date but have never advanced beyond the pool stages with just three wins from 25 games. Those wins have come against Japan (twice) and Russia. USA have not lost a World Cup opener by more than 18 this century.

Recent Form

England have lost just two of their last 12 Tests with both those defeats coming at the hands of Wales. England have not won a Test by more than 43 points over the last three years, a run of 35 Tests, and have just four wins of greater than 37 points across that span.

The USA have won 15 of their last 18 with a win over Scotland and two over Samoa the highlights. USA have lost just twice by over 14 since the start of 2017.

Forecast

USA are all over a bet here with the big start. England do not put teams away and their uber-conservatism in the opener against Tonga was concerning. The USA have not been playing top-level opposition but their confidence will be high with some impressive wins in recent times. More than happy to bet the plus with mas confidence.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – USA +36.5

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Ireland v Scotland

Ireland and Scotland have one of the longest rivalries in world rugby with the Six Nations rivals set for a rugged encounter.

History

Ireland and Scotland played their first Test in Belfast in 1877. Ireland have won 17 of the last 22 Tests dating back to 2002 with wins in six of the last seven Tests. The teams met in February with the men in green winning by nine at Murrayfield.

Rugby World Cup Record

Ireland have been the great underachievers at the World Cup, stunningly never advancing past the quarter finals, getting knocked out at the first round of the knockout stage in seven of eight World Cups. Ireland are 22-14 at the World Cup. Scotland have reached the knockout stages in seven of eight World Cups, advancing to the semis just once, back in 1991. Scotland have won just six of their last 11 World Cup games but four of their last five losses have been by seven points or fewer.

Recent Form
Ireland have won 24 of their last 28 Tests and have been outstanding for the most part since the last World Cup. Ireland have just four double digit wins in their last 11 Tests. Scotland have won just three of their last eight with two of those wins coming against Georgia. Scotland’s only win in this year’s Six Nations came against Italy.

Forecast
Ireland have had the wood on Scotland for most of this century and should have few concerns with a side that is struggling against the top tier nations.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Ireland -8.5

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England v Tonga

England are primed for a big World Cup and are set for a strong start against a Tonga team with limited hopes.

History
England and Tonga have met just twice with England winning by 91 at the 1999 World Cup and 16 at the 2007 World Cup.

Rugby World Cup Record
England are three-time finalists at the Rugby World Cup, winning it all in 2003. They will have redemption on their minds though after being stunningly eliminated in the pool stages of their home World Cup. England are 31-13 all-time in World Cup play with only two of their last 18 World Cup matches resulting in wins of 40-plus. Tonga have played in seven World Cups and have never advanced beyond the pool stages. They are 7-18 all-time and have won a match at five World Cups. They defeated France at the 2011 World Cup and have not lost by more than 38 across the two World Cups.

Recent Form
England have lost just two of their last 11 Tests with both those defeats coming at the hands of Wales. England have not won a Test by more than 43 points over the last three years, a run of 34 Tests. Tonga have won just five of their 15 Tests since the start of 2017. Their biggest win across that timeframe. They are off an 85-point loss to Tonga.

Forecast
England will have few issues here but happy to bet on Tonga to keep it within hand. New Zealand belted Tonga in the warm-up but no shame there. England haven’t put a lot of teams to the sword recently so the plus looks value.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Tonga +43.5

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New Zealand v South Africa

New Zealand’s title defence kicks off with the premier pool game of the tournament, a clash with legitimate title contenders South Africa.

History

New Zealand have won 16 of 20 Tests against South Africa dating back to 2010 but the Springboks have been rejuvenated against the All Blacks of late with just a single defeat in the last three Tests. The last four Tests have been decided by two points or fewer while eight of the last 11 have been decided by seven points or fewer.

Rugby World Cup Record

The All Blacks are the two-time defending champions and semi-finalists in seven of eight World Cups. New Zealand are 44-6 in World Cup history while they have won 24-straight pool games by double digits. South Africa have played in six World Cups for two titles and two further semi-final appearances. They are 30-6 all-time at the World Cup. They opened the last World Cup with a shock loss to Japan. The All Blacks and Springboks have met four times at the World Cup with two wins apiece.

Recent Form

New Zealand have lost just five of 33 Tests since the start of 2017. They have won just three of five Tests this year but have tended to flatten their form leading into a World Cup so that is of little concern. After a down period following the last World Cup, South Africa are ascendant, not losing in five Tests this year. The Springboks have lost just three of their last 12 Tests.

Forecast

All the money has come for South Africa but it seems fanciful that the All Blacks could lose or get run close against the Springboks. New Zealand have certainly not given the Springboks their A-game in the last 12 months and have not won a pool game by single digits since 1991. Happy to ride the All Blacks with significant confidence here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – New Zealand -5.5

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France v Argentina

Les Bleus and the Pumas open their World Cup campaign with a match that will likely determine which nation advances to the knockout stage.

History

Argentina surprisingly hold a 10-7 advantage over France this century with Les Bleus winning the last two matches. The teams have met three times at the Rugby World Cup with Argentina recently winning a pool clash in 2007 and then the bronze medal game in 2011.

Rugby World Cup Record

France have played in three World Cup finals and played in five World Cup semis but have never lifted the William Webb Ellis Trophy. They are 11-8 across the last three Cups with a quarter-final elimination at the 2015 World Cup. Argentina have reached the semis at two of the last three World Cups as they have become a force over the last decade. The Pumas have won 10 of their last 12 pool games.

Recent Form

France have been poor with just five wins in their last 15 Tests. Four of those wins have come against Italy and Scotland. Argentina’s recent form has been very poor with just three wins in their last 22 Tests but have wins against South Africa and Australia on their resume.

Forecast

Neither nation is playing particularly effective rugby but happy to support Argentina continuing their recent strong World Cup form. France may be the most overrated team in world rugby now.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Argentina

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Australia v Fiji

The Wallabies kick off their World Cup campaign against Pacific rivals Fiji.

History

Australia have won 18 of 21 all-time against Fiji and have not lost a Test since 1954. The teams have met five times since 2007 with the Wallabies winning all five by 15-plus. Three of those wins have been by 43 or more. The teams met at the 2015 World Cup with Australia recording a 15-point win.

Rugby World Cup Record

Australia are two-time World Cup champions but have not won it all since 1999, losing the final in 2003 and 2015. The Wallabies are 26-2 all-time in pool matches while they have won their two matches against Fiji by 43 and 15. Fiji have been at every World Cup bar 1995, advancing past the pool stages three times, most recently in 2007. They have gone 1-3 at each of their last two World Cups with their wins coming against Namibia and Uruguay.

Recent Form

Australia enter the World Cup in form that is less than ideal with just seven wins in their last 20 Tests. A win over the All Blacks in August though shows they can mix it with anyone. The Wallabies have just three wins in their last 20 Tests by more than 15 points. Fiji have won their last three Tests and five of their last six, including a win over France last year.

Forecast

Fiji look excellent value in their World Cup opener against the Wallabies. They are playing in outstanding form and though they are up in grade against Australia, they have an elite backline with arguably more tryscoring potential. The Wallabies rarely put teams to the sword these days and their recent Test against Samoa showed plenty about where they are at.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Fiji +15.5

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Japan v Russia

The Rugby World Cup kicks off with hosts Japan meeting minnows Russia in what is sure to be a one-sided squash to get the locals off to a flyer.

History

Japan have met Russia six times with the Cherry Blossoms winning five, including the last four. The last time the teams met in Tokyo, back in 2010, Japan won 75-3. The Bears have conceded at least 29 in all six meetings against Japan.

Rugby World Cup Record

Japan have won just four of 28 Rugby World Cup games and have never advanced beyond the pool stages despite qualifying for every Cup. The Brave Blossoms did go 3-1 at the last World Cup though, including a stunning win over South Africa. Japan’s biggest all-time World Cup win came back in 1991 when they won 52-8 over Zimbabwe. Russia lost all four matches at the 2011 World Cup – the only World Cup they’ve reached – including three by 46 or more.

Recent Form

Japan enter their home World Cup in solid form with six wins in 10 Tests since the start of 2018. That run includes a win over Italy. The Cherry Blossoms’ only win over 34 points since 2016 was a 70-point win over minnows Korea. Russia are 7-10 over the last two years but have dropped four of their last five and come off a 70-point loss to Italy. They have two losses by more than 22 since 2017.

Forecast

Japan have been given a nice easy ride into their home World Cup and should run out convincing winners against lowly Russia. Happy to take the Bears getting a monster start here. They will be at their best for this and lost just 13-6 in their last World Cup opener. It would not surprise if Japan were a little overhyped for this.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Russia +39.5

Pool A

No doubt the easiest pool to handicap. Ireland, who have won three of six Six Nations titles since 2014, are the obvious winner here. Ireland has not lost a pool game at the Rugby World Cup since 2007. Scotland sits ninth in betting but are clear second in the group.

They have played in all eight World Cups and have been eliminated at the quarter-final stage six times. Hosts Japan will be hopeful more than expectant but despite their improvement and a bunny pool, they won’t be seeing knockout rugby. Samoa and Russia will not be causing any upsets.

Winner: Ireland
Advancing: Scotland
Recommended Bet:   BACK – Ireland to Win Pool A ($1.25)

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Pool B

There is nothing to see in Pool B outside of the cracking opener between New Zealand and South Africa. There is some buzz about the Springboks heading into this World Cup but the All Blacks have won the last two World Cups and have lost just twice in the last four World Cups.

The Springboks have won just three of their last 20 against the All Blacks. Italy is the pick of the remainder but will only enjoy wins over Canada and Namibia but all three will just be looking to mitigate the damage against two of the three favourites to win it all.

Winner: New Zealand
Advancing: South Africa
Recommended Bet:   BACK – New Zealand to Win Pool B ($1.25)

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Pool C

England has not won the Six Nations in either of the last two years and endured a horrific home campaign in 2015 where they failed to get out of the pool stage.

That disaster should steel Eddie Jones’ team, who are 20-4-1 all-time v Argentina and have won 11 of their last 16 against France with Les Bleus not winning outside of France since 2011.

The interesting battle here is the battle for second between France and Argentina. Les Bleus have advanced to the quarters in all eight World Cups – the semis in six – but have won only five of their last 15 Tests and are at a real low-point. Argentina has won 10 of 17 against France and on a neutral venue, they can absolutely stun.

Winner: England
Advancing: Argentina
Recommended Bet:  BACK – Argentina To Advance ($1.90)

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Pool D

There is no question that it will be Wales and Australia advancing out of Pool D. Georgia are a nation on the rise but have never advanced out of the pool stage while Fiji have fallen at the pool stage n three of their last four World Cup campaigns and have sent stronger squads.

Uruguay are minnows who conceded 111 in their last World Cup appearance. Six Nations champs and Grand Slam winners Wales deservedly edge Australia in favouritism on form but it is hard not to fancy Australia beating them on the back of win in 16 of the last 18 Tests between the nations.

Winner: Australia
Advancing: Wales
Recommended Bet:  BACK – Australia to Win Pool D ($2.20)

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Tournament Winner

Any discussion around the Rugby World Cup inevitably starts and ends with the All Blacks. The top ranked team in the world and two-time defending champions are heavily favoured to be the first team to win three World Cups on end.

There are some vulnerabilities around Steve Hansen’s team though. While clearly the most talented and most accomplished team, a heavy loss to Australia and a defeat against South Africa in the last 12 months have created some worry. At just over black odds, they are value, particularly with the World Cup not being held on slow European tracks.

England and South Africa are viewed as the prime contenders. The Springboks are chasing are their third World Cup while England is in pursuit of No.2. South Africa has ushered in generational change over the last few years but are the biggest unders in the tournament.

South Africa have New Zealand in their pool and England shape as a potential semi-final matchup for the All Blacks so happy to take both on.

The only other genuine chances are Australia, Wales and Ireland with France, Argentina and Scotland all lacking the class and in the case of the latter two, pedigree, to threaten.

The Wallabies are a hard pass. They can win their group but they lack the physicality and athleticism to go with the strongest teams. Wales is an interesting team looking for their first World Cup Final. They won the Grand Slam this year but get bogey team Australia in their pool.

Ireland doesn’t enter in the best form but look the greatest value. They are perennial underachievers at the World Cup and recent form has been poor but they have shown over the last four years that they can beat any team in the world.

Recommended Bets:

 BACK  – New Zealand to Win World Cup ($2.25)

 BACK  – Ireland to Win World Cup ($9)