Racing Watch: Lay Selections

Racing Watch is an online hub that serves as a one-stop shop for all things Australian thoroughbred racing. Racing Watch is headed by respected form analyst John Walter; and a Resource Centre soon to be packed with quality articles and information that allow punters to increase their betting performance over the long term.

Exclusively to the Betfair Hub, they’ll be providing their best Lay selections for Friday’s and Saturday’s across the country. Follow their selections on the Betfair Exchange.

Rosehill | Race 3 | #7 Archedemus

Dominant winner first up in midweek grade when able to sit outside the leader and control the tempo there – strong late, but was entitled to be. Strikes an inside draw this time around with the possibility of good pressure coming across from the outside.

Even if he is able to hold the inside or behind leader position – still think he will be awkwardly placed or unable to control the speed. This is clearly his toughest test to date and happy to risk him at his current odds.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Archedemus

Randwick | Race 1 | #7 Rotator

Filly from the Waller camp that ran on solidly on debut. Was pace assisted there and now comes up against the Colts and stays at the same trip. Think there are a couple of slick horses here and surprised to see her come up early favourite. Think they might be a bit slick for her here.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Rotator

Randwick | Race 2 | #1 Nothin Like Harry

Looks a horse looking for further if anything, yet comes back in distance here. Can argue its a significant drop in grade. But still think he looks incredibly once paced, that should leave him vulnerable here at incredibly short odds. Even bunch away from Harry with Pontmain the most interesting runner. Simply have to look around him at the price.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Nothin Like Harry

Rosehill | Race 6 | #6 Alizee

With the scratching of Lanciato, this mare now finds herself in Gate 1 – the worst possible draw she could have for mine in the small field. She had plenty of things go her way first up when taking care of a solid field. This field though is a different depth altogether. If they go slow up front – she will need to either circle the field and outsprint them all – or be ridden for luck to beat them.

If they go quick – I think her stablemate is the more dangerous of the two. I think she is extremely short odds in early markets and keen to take her on today.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Alizee

Canberra | Race 4 | #9 Sharpe Tune

4yo Mare that has had the eight starts now and comes off its first placing last time out. Had the blinkers on for the first time there and a wide draw – sat outside the leader and battled away nicely. Drops back in distance here and swaps her outside draw for an inside gate, that could be an issue with the inside quite likely to be a disadvantage here up the running.

Doubt the drop in distance is a positive either and the overall field strength looks far stronger here than the last start Nowra assignment. She looks a solid risk.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Sharpe Tune

Canterbury | Race 7 | #9 Via Veneto

Limited opportunities on this card for lay targets at Canterbury tonight. Tossed up between Safado in the previous race at far shorter odds – simply due to where it may end up in the run and its aggressive early price, but eventually settled on this runner.  Just the one win from 11 starts to date – she has often shown glimpses of ability without putting races away.

This is arguably the best setup she has been for a race. But from the awkward draw and with speed both inside and outside of her – can see her getting a long way back early. Its not the deepest race in the world – but she will need to be good to round them up from back in the pack. At shortish odds – im happy to be against her.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Via Veneto

Randwick | Race 2 | #8 She’s Spicy

Not particularly the type of horse you would really want to be against – but have to oppose it simply on price. This mare resumed from a very long spell at the Gold Coast – gifted a soft lead and outsprinted a maiden field nicely – went to town and again every possible chance, but impressive visually again.

Everything went pear-shaped last time out and she did a good job against the tempo to get so close. My issue here is that there is all sorts of depth to this Highway. Seven or eight very realistic chances that all arrive here with strong setups. She can win but is very aggressively priced and this is clearly the strongest field she has ever lined up against.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – She’s Spicy

Randwick | Race 3 | #1 Star Fall

Very similar to She’s Spicy in the previous race. This horse arrives in good solid form and really has done nothing wrong in the leadups, it just runs into a very solid little field and has to give them all significant weight. Imagine he sits just off them again and will have to be first to go on the corner. Having to chase down some fast horses, then fend off a couple of talented stalkers late.

He has a big job ahead of him today and happy to find something to beat him today.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Star Fall

Port Macquarie | Race 4 | #3 Powerbelle

Three starts into her first preparation and all solid efforts. Broke through in a suitable race at Tuncurry before going down narrowly at Provincial level last time at Gosford. Back to country grade here, but runs into a deceptively strong field.

Three first uppers all with strong ability and all on the up. Miss Powerbelle has the apprentice aboard and a tricky gate to contend. Comes up extremely short odds on the early markets and I really struggle to make a case for how it can be winning this. Very keen to risk.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Miss Powerbelle

Canberra | Race 2 | #1 Polar Star

Well bred son of Lonhro that found the right race last time out when back in distance. Draws to roll forward again from the wide draw and looks extremely likely to work harder this time around – with the pressure also likely to go on earlier.

Sharply up in field strength and happy to risk him today.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Polar Star

Ballina | Race 1 | #5 Coolwedge

3YO Filly from the Edmonds camp, having her 6th start today and trying to break through. Ridden forward her last two starts and settled on very slow tempos around the leader sympathetic Beaudesert circuit – she was not overly strong on either occasion.

25 days since last seen and back 100m in trip here – doubt she finds the front here and even with the services of Jeff Llloyd aboard – if she has to do any work at all, you have to treat her as a solid risk.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Coolwedge

Canterbury | Race 2 | #2 Bucephalus

Debutant from the Hawkes camp that comes up the early favourite. Three spaced trials stretching back to November 2017 (Warning sign). Has certainly shown some ability in those trials – but doesn’t quite look dynamic enough for a sharp 1100m race around this circuit on what should be a very difficult night to run on.

Gives away race experience and fitness to a few solid customers and really needs to improve significantly off the trials to justify favouritism.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Bucephalus

Randwick | Race 3 | #10 Taniko

Given the ride of rides two starts back over the 1100m at Canterbury when making full use of the inside bias that night. Went up in grade and distance last time and was flattered for mine by the slow tempo playing into her sit/sprint pattern.

Stays at the 1200m today and now steps out of Fillies/Mares grade. Keen to take her on today.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Taniko

Wagga | Race 7 | #3 Tobermory

Jumping sharply from the 1200 to the mile here – this bloke races a tough task. Form is honest and meets a field of runners who have probably had more chances than him.

But the risk of fitness and distance query alone are enough for me to be against him today.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Tobermory

Gosford | Race 8 | #2 Le Lude

Promising filly resuming. She draws horribly around a circuit that should be playing very advantageous to those closer to the speed and the inside of the track.

She is likely to get back and wide and 1100m should be short of her best distance. Happy to risk her today.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Le Lude

Randwick | Race 1 | #1 Hightail

Solid enough winner in provincial MDN grade on debut over 1000m – straight to town and solid effort when holding for third after every possible chance in the run. Now rises to 1150m and there looks a couple of promising horses engaged. Happy to risk him today.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Hightail

Tamworth | Race 1 | #1 Shangato

Consistent type that is coming off a last start win in C1 grade over the 1400m. Steps up to C2 grade over the 1600m here and still has to give them all plenty of weight. Think the 1600m is his upper limit and drawing the inside may be tricky for him here.

If they control the speed up front and sprint – he may be in an awkward position and flat-footed.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Shangato

Tamworth | Race 4 | #2 Fiery Eminence

Enigmatic type that has found it difficult to put race away in the past. He has only had the one run in the last 14 months and shows up here off a 199 day break with no public trial.

Thought he needed to get a soft lead to justify his early price and that looks highly unlikely here. Happy to risk him today.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Fiery Eminence

Canberra | Race 4 | #3 Doctor Zous

First starter from the Bjorn Baker stable. Thought he just lacked the turn of foot in his trials to come up such a dominant favourite over 1000m.

Certainly finds a winnable race – but he looks far better suited at 1200m + to my eye. Happy to play around him today.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Doctor Zous

Canberra | Race 5 | #2 Admire Gratzi

Get back run type that has won his past two starts – getting over the top of them very late on each occasion. He gets up in the weights here and drops in distance.

Finds a race with only a controlled tempo at best and will need to be at his very best to get over the top of them again late here.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – Admire Gratzi

Canterbury | Race 7 | #3 The Pharoah

Quirky galloper that has not found the winners stall since August 2017. He put his best performance in some time last start – but had conditions to favour him there.

Not as favourable tonight and a third of the price in early markets. Will need a soft time of it up front to justify that quote.

Betting Strategy

 LAY (WIN) – The Pharoah

Related Articles

Lay Betting: How It Works

Lay betting is completely unique to Betfair. When you place a Lay bet you are betting on an outcome ...

Advanced Lay Betting

It’s time to dive into some Advanced Lay Betting. By now you’ll have a solid understanding of Lay betting ...

Betfair Starting Price (BSP)

In 2016, the Betfair Starting Price (BSP or Betfair SP) was born. This revolutionary product allows back and lay ...