Racing Preview: Saturday October 7 2017

Plenty of great racing this weekend. Moonee Valley has the rail 7m out and overnight rain should keep the track in the Good 4 range. The Analysts full card ratings can be found here and it will be a leader’s paradise.

Flemington is the best draining track in Australia. Will race Good 3 and the fence is expected to be inferior in the home straight so look for the run on types to get their chance if good enough. Wind won’t be an issue looking at

Flemington R4 | Gilgai Stakes G2 | 1200m | 2:40pm 

Punting Form anticipate this to be a tactical affair and expect a sit-sprint scenario unfolding. They nominate Spieth as the best betting opportunity in the race and looking at the early market I rated him closer to $2.00. The early price of $2.80 on the exchange represents value and looking at his run behind Redzel fresh over 1000m there’s no reason to suggest he’ll go backwards. Flemington 1200m is ideal for the stallion, the wide draw and the smaller field plays to his advantage.

Looking for dangers Ulmann can pull a run fresh, Bons Away is on the upward spiral and Silent Sedition is classy but her best figures are at 1400m and even more so 1600m.

Insider Suggests 

 BACK (WIN) Spieth

Flemington R5 | Turnbull Stakes G1 | 2000m | 3:15pm

Looks put on for the Champion Mare Winx and comments from Darren Weir in the media add to my confidence. It sounds like he’s backed off Humidor and with the Caulfield Cup still his likely Grand Final. Barrier 2 is awkward for Winx so Hugh Bowman will be desperate to get off the fence ASAP.

Paul Daily rates Winx $1.18 in his preview with Humidor $9.34 second pick. His full assessment can be viewed here.

Importantly her peak ratings are at 2000m and to the eye she’s racing like she’ll eat up this track and trip. With her Grand Final in three weeks we get to see her full throttle.

Insider Suggests 

 BACK (WIN) Winx

Flemington R7 | The Bart Cummigs G3 | 2500m | 4:30pm 

Daniel O’Sullivan from The Rating Bureau has previewed the Bart Cummings. He rates favourite Almandin $3.00 for the following reasons, “from Barrier 11 he’s likely to be ridden stone cold and will be spotting them a big start. That combined with the presence of some other solid chances in the race make it impossible to think the current $2.00 quote is value’.

Punting Form suggest a two bet strategy siding with Favourite Almandin and Amelia’s Star who ran on strongly behind Harlem last start. “Amelie’s Star should settle a bit closer from the draw and over the longer 2500m trip, if they do not set a reasonable pace up front then she has the finishing ability to make it difficult for one of the more favoured runners to get home over the top of her.”

Although he’s racing in close to career peak form I wouldn’t be surprised if Team Williams (Hickmott) have backed right off Almandin. His Grand Final day is Cup day and all he needs now is maintenance, I expect negative tactics from the wide alley and agree that Harlem and Amelia’s Star can pull off an upset. Both runners look on a big upward spiral.

Insider Suggests 

 LAY (WIN) Almandin

Related Articles