Big weather watch on the east coast of Australia with Brisbane and Sydney to be the worst affected. Melbourne forecast Friday is troublesome but given how well Flemington drains I’d be surprised to see a downgrade. Doomben chopped out heavily last week, so Saturday will be very trying conditions with the current track rating a Soft 7 and likely downgrade to Heavy by tomorrow morning.

Doomben Race 6 | The Roses | 2000m | 3:57pm

Looks a nice race to get stuck into a false favourite with Dawn Wall unlikely to handle the heavy track. She failed miserably in the Vinery Stud Stakes on the Heavy 9. Kenedna is flying and will handle sting out. Oklahoma Girl boasts two wins on Heavy rated tracks over shorter distances. I’m not convinced she’s looking for 2000m but couldn’t lay her at the price.

The Pinnacle worked hard in running to get within 1.5 lengths of Dawn Wall in the Gold Coast bracelet last start. She’s bred to swim and won’t be posted three wide this time around. Candika was the other caught wide in the Bracelet who can handle ‘sting out’. Lipstick Lover jumps sharply in grade but there was enough in her late sectionals to indicate 2000m could suit on a wet track.

Shenandoah is the filly from left of centre that might be favoured by a heavy track. She acquitted herself well against the older mares at Flemington last start in a Benchmark 84. I’ll be keeping her safe.

Insider Suggests

 LAY Dawn Wall (Might be SCR)

 BACK (WIN) Kenedna

 BACK (WIN) Shenandoah

Morphettvile Race 6 | RA Lee Stakes | 1600m | 3:45pm

Most of the nationwide rain will miss Morphettville so we expect the track to stay in the ‘Good’ range. There’s not much between HookedBurning Front and Royal Rumble on Vince’s RSPs. I expect the tempo not to be as fast as most think with Hooked likely to take a sit off Burning Front to ensure he runs out a strong mile. Despite only winning one from 10 starts at 1600m Hooked has competed at G1 level for a few of those and looking at those performances, they measure up here under Set Weight with Penalties conditions.

Punting Form suggest a small bet on Hooked as he’ll get ‘the perfect drag into the race’ which seems logical. Royal Rumblemaps well as does the enigmatic Rhythm To Spare who was very good late at Caulfield last time. He comes here three weeks between runs which looks a nice set up. With all this in mind and looking at the weights I’m happy to lay the favourite Burning Front at $2.50.

Insider Suggests

 LAY Burning Front

Doomben Race 7 | Doomben Cup | 2000m | 4:01pm

It’s Somewhat find himself in another winnable G1. He loves a wet track, leads and drawn to use no petrol to find position. He needs to improve dramatically off his last start win to take this race out and it looks a really even contest on paper with plenty of runners equally suited on wet ground. There’s no strong profile aside for this race and with a capacity field for a change and multiple form lines colliding it’s not an easy race to assess.

Punting Form side with Sense Of Occasion who’s racing in career best form for Kris Lees. He’ll map well back from barrier 18 and get a nice cart into the race from horses like Vanbrugh and Maurus looking at their speed map. By race seven that’s probably the best place to be. At $10 early it’s going to be easy to see punters coming for him with a third behind Winx two starts ago in the Queen Elizabeth on a Soft 7.

Articus has come back in very good order for Darren Weir and it’s easy to see why he’s come up second favourite behind It’s Somewhat. He can position in behind the speed from barrier 8 and looking at his last start at Flemington is a horse that can absorb plenty of early pressure. Vince’s RSPs have him rating highly in the mid and closing sections of the race which add to my confidence.

Insider Suggests

 BACK (WIN) Sense Of Occasion

 BACK (WIN) Articus

Morphettville Race 7 | Goodwood Handicap | 1200m | 4:20pm

The profile looking at Punting Form’s Feature race report supports horses with 56.5kg or less, coming off a ‘freshen-up’ of three weeks or more. Horses in the lead struggle to hang on and this race favours horses with a booming finish.

They’ve put the line through Black Heart Bart first up as race favourite with the task of carrying an extra 2kg this year and with a possible question mark over his fitness. If his last half a dozen starts is anything to go by he’s likely to be the highest traded runner by volume Australia wide! Looking at Vince Accardi’s RSPs he rates very strongly in the mid and closing sections which frightens me given how well he’s likely to map in running.

Secret Agenda went to a peak BM rating last start in the G1 Robert Sangster for fillies and mares. If she can repeat that rating she’s the likely winner but what has that run taken out of her?

Vega Magic didn’t have the G1 Winterbottom run to suit, but he’s drawn barrier six here for new Hayes/Dabernig team. He looks the up and coming 4yo that will map in the sweet spot with an ideal weight of 56.5kg. He’s got a 64% winning strike rate and if the track stays in the Good range I’m happy to be with him as his turn of foot is sharp enough to account for these. He’ll need to hit a new career PB to win this but the stable change gives me the confidence to say he can break the race profile first up.

Insider Suggests

 BACK (WIN) Vega Magic

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