Doomben hosts the Stradbroke which limits the field and it shapes as the weakest renewal for quite some time. The weather shouldn’t affect the track looking at the forecast so I’m expecting to remain in the Good range.

Doomben Race 4 | Dane Ripper | 1350m | 1:05pm

Very even contest so I’m keen to look wide for value. Extensible looks to have the perfect set up here a month between runs. Her effort at Scone in the Dark Jewell Classic was full of merit five weeks between runs, in the wrong part of the track.

Looking at her sectional profile it appears as though she went there underdone, that lead up run reminds me of Miss Covergirl in the QTC Cup before she went on to win the G1 Tatts Tiara. Extensible performs best on Good rated tracks and her finish is booming which critical looking at past winners of this race. From barrier six she can stalk Prompt Response and fight out the finish. At 20/1 she looks the best roughie for the day but she ranks poorly with Vince’s RSPs which makes me a little less confident.

Bonny O’Reilly is a very smart filly. She has a powerful sprint but more importantly has good early gate speed which is equally as dangerous. At every start this time in she’s drawn barrier seven or closer, so barrier 14 after the early scratching’s is a new challenge for her. She won fourth up last time at 1350m at Rosehill but looks at risk on the back-up, rising in weight and up sharply in grade. $4.00 is early betting is poison odds and I’m prepared to lay her each-way.

Miss Debutante has plenty of class and being from the Gai Waterhouse/Adrian Bott stable she’s likely to be very tough. She looked really unsuited on the Heavy 8 at Eagle Farm and could be a new horse back on top of the ground. From Barrier 6 she can stalk the leaders and be hard to run down.

Insider Suggests

 BACK (WIN) Extensible

BACK (WIN) Miss Debutante

 LAY (WIN) Bonny O’Reilly

Doomben Race 6 | JJ Atkins | 1600m | 2:20pm

The stars align here with Punting FormVince’s RSPs and the speed map all pointing to a Melody Belle victory. Her lead up win in the traditional BRC Sires Produce was dominant, another positive is her ability to map forward and sprint off a strong tempo. 1600m is uncharted water but generally 2yo’s that are dominant over 1400m can stretch to a mile without issue.

The Sydney colts Sambro & Lord Cecil can finish in the placings coming from a high rating 1400m event at Randwick, but to make this race a genuine contest it’s disappointing that the winner from that event Kementari, has been saved for the Golden Rose in spring.

Aloisia looks a progressive filly but 21 days between runs and a negative position on the map is enough reason to rule her out as a threat to the favourite.

Insider Suggests

 BACK (WIN) Melody Belle

Doomben Race 8 | Stradbroke Handicap | 1350m | 3:40pm

Looks a really straight forward setup here. Jungle Edge leads, Mackintosh box seats with Ulmann and Good Project not too far market of middle draws.

Hooked is likely to burn across and force Jungle Edge to work. That will play into the hands of those in behind the speed. Clearly Innocent has a booming finish but returning to a Good rated track off a big win on the ‘roomy’ Heavy rated Eagle Farm looks a negative taking this race shape into account.

Mackintosh is unbeaten fresh and should start BSP favourite on the Exchange. When targeting a G1 first up with a bleeder Waller does it well. Vince Accardi’s RSPs indicate that stablemate Good Project has strong mid and closing sections. Looking at the speed map he’ll travel in the sweet spot and can be taken into the race by a horse like Egyptian Symbol. I feel he has more class than Ullmann so I’m surprised there’s such a big discrepancy in their prices.

Daniel O’Sullivan sides with Burning Front as the value in the race.

Insider Suggests

 BACK (WIN) Mackintosh

 BACK (WIN) Good Project

 LAY (WIN) Clearly Innocent

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