Not much luck last week but we found plenty of shorteners. Its chook lotto with the Randwick track again this week so I suggest staying out early and being flexible with your game plan. Daniel O’Sullivan from The Rating Bureau provided us with a track bias article so make time to read it if you have not already.

Randwick Race 5 | Arrowfield Sprint | 1200m | 1:55pm

You will not see a more unusual preparation for a filly than Global Glamour. She has a ton of class, but here she is sixth up off a trial, dropping back from 1500m to 1200m. According to Vince Accardi’s RSPs she rates only average in her mid-section and falls away badly late looking at the shape of this race. Punting Form also suggest a lay siding with Impending who was brilliant to the lane after being hampered early and restrained to the tail of the field.

The other improver that rates strongly in late closing speed is Tactical Advantage. He didn’t handle the Heavy 10 last start and looks well placed her back to a slow rated surface.

Daniel O’Sullivan is heavily in the Global Glamour camp rating her $2.90. Read why here.

Insider Suggests 

 BACK (WIN) Impending

 BACK (WIN) Tactical Advantage

 LAY (WIN) Global Glamour

Randwick Race 6 | ATC Oaks | 1600m | 2:35pm

Vince Accardi rates Bonneval higher than fellow Kiwi Devise with stronger mid and closing sections. With Lasqueti Spirit the natural leader this Oaks will be truly run and a great test of stamina. Punting Form’s Feature Race Reports show that Lasqueti Spirit brings the strongest last start benchmark figure. If she has improved from The BMW they will need the entire Randwick straight to run her down. At $9.00 she’s a great Back-To-Lay option, that you should be able to trade out mid-race at $3.00 or less.

Nurse Kitchen looks to have the most upside of the closer’s and comes her fourth up after a weaving run through traffic in the Vinery Stud Stakes which is a great pointer for this looking at the feature race history.

Insider Suggests 

 BACK (WIN) or BACK-TO-LAY Lasqueti Spirit

 BACK (WIN) Nurse Kitchen

Randwick Race 7 | Queen Elizabeth Stakes | 2000m | 3:15pm

WINX. I made the mistake of suggesting to Lay her last start. Thankfully, I have retained my job and a shout out to the person on Facebook who thought it was a sackable offence.

If they couldn’t beat her on a heavy 10 dropping back in distance three weeks between runs, I’m now not sure they ever will. Regardless of tempo she’s almost invincible and looks like she’s getting better. How she can home in 23.04 for her last 400 and 11.68 on that surface last start I’ll never know.

Steve Walters from the Bookies Bag is laying The United States to place. It looks a well-informed play around even money and is a popular horse so usually stays hard in the market. I have Winx, Harlem, Hartnell, Happy Clapper and Exospheric marked shorter than him….

Harlem looks a runner with a bright future. He might be better-suited next preparation and aimed toward a Melbourne Cup. His closing sectionals rate well with a step up to 2000m and can run a placing at big odds!

Insider Suggests 

 BACK (WIN) Winx

 BACK (PLACE) Harlem

 LAY (PLACE) The United States

Randwick Race 8 | Sydney Cup | 3200m | 3:55pm

Looking at Chairman’s Handicap it’s hard to see anything turning the tables on the Darren Weir trained Big Duke. He was strong through the line but there’s a slight chance the heavy track may have flattered him. Back to a soft track, I’m staying off him at $2.90 as this race can often throw up a rough result. Punting Form rate him on top so don’t let me talk you out of him if you like him.

Team Williams has had good success in this race and Assign looks capable of being in the finish here. Anytime Damien Oliver riding 53.5kg your ears should be pricked. His final 400m was quite soft looking at his sectional data last start, but a strong early tempo could explain why. He was a month between runs so I expect him to come on significantly fitness wise.

Vince Accardi’s RSPs rate Libran highly and only Gallante outstayed him in last year’s Sydney Cup that rated quite strongly. Despite a poor recent run Chris Waller still peaks his horses for Group One’s as good as anyone.

Penglai Pavillion sparks interest with only 52kg, which fits the race profile. First up is a query but the Kerrin McEvoy / Charlie Appleby combination warrants respect.

Insider Suggests

 BACK (WIN) Assign

 BACK (WIN) Libran

Randwick Race 9 | Queen Of The Turf | 1600m | 4:35pm

Close to the hardest race on the card for mine. Keeping the strategy extremely simple and happy to lay Foxplay each/way. She drops back from 2000m, which I think plays heavily against her on a drying track. The race profile according to Punting Form favours mares rising in distance from the Emancipation or Coolmore Classic or even the class mare dropping back from the Doncaster Handicap.

Insider Suggests

 LAY (E/W) Foxplay

Randwick Race 10 | Sapphire Stakes | 1200m | 5:15pm

Punting Form looks to have nailed this race. Horses first up have an average record in the race and Ravi comes here in that scenario with a wide draw and an awkward map position. Vince has the race relatively even looking at the RSPs with Ocean Embers the horse that both appeals with strong closing data at a big each way price. Thames Court (Blinkers first time) is another identified as value from Punting Form. I’m keen to mimic their bet suggestions.

Insider Suggests

 BACK (WIN) Ocean Embers

 BACK (WIN) Thames Court

 LAY (WIN) Ravi

Ascot Race 8 | W.A.T.C Derby | 2400m | 7:50pm

Punting Form’s Feature Race Report highlights that 75% of all winners and place-getters have come through the Melvista Stakes or the WA Oaks. This makes life difficult for the Leon Corstens trained Rock With You. It looks to be a race dominated by filly Royal Star or as the Punting Form analyst suggest, Gatting.

Gatting has the highest overall PB figure albeit over 1800m. His lead up run from off the speed was impressive covering plenty of ground and making a long sustained run. His mid race sectionals indicate there’s more improvement in him and rising to 2400m should be too advantage. If the race becomes ‘sit/sprint’, it is more likely to play into the hands of Royal Star who produced a quick final section last start when narrowly beaten in the WA Oaks.

Insider Suggests

 BACK (WIN) Gatting

related articles

Racing Preview: Saturday April 29th 2017

Deep cards across all four states with Doubt I’m Dreaming the interesting runner at Caulfield (Race 5), he looks ...

Read More

Racing Preview: Saturday July 15

I’m going to take on Punting Form here, and side with former WA runner Chocolate Holic in his first start for new trainer ...

Read More

Racing Preview: Saturday April 22nd 2017

We end the Sydney Carnival fittingly with a 3200m slog on a bottomless Randwick. Happiness. Attention turns to the ...

Read More