Deep cards across all four states with Doubt I’m Dreaming the interesting runner at Caulfield (Race 5), he looks hard to beat at $1.80. The Eagle Farm surface is in the gun from local trainers and the fields look thin of interstate raiders. Hawkesbury will be a good betting card and I very keen on a Sydney trained runner in Adelaide.

Eagle Farm Race 4 | Dalrello Stakes | 1200m | 1:47pm

Ours To Keep had ‘the wood’ over Snitzkraft on both occasions in their first preparation and Saturday’s soft surface is more likely to favour Ours To Keep yet again. I’m happy to forgive his flop in the Magic Millions where he lost a plate. He’s bred by two very good wet track sires and he can sit off Snitzkraft and be strongest late.

Ratings2Win’s feature preview can be found here. The Bookies Bag throws a spanner in the works with Barry Cook laying Ours To Keep and Steve Walters laying Snitzkraft.

Vince’s RSPs rate Ours To Keep 9 points higher than any other runner so from a positive map and a good jockey and trainer combination I’m keen to bet.

Insider Suggests

 BACK (WIN) Ours To Keep

Eagle Farm Race 6 | Victory Stakes | 1200m | 3:07pm

A very uninspiring Group 2 here. Punting Form are against the favourites on a heavy surface with a justifiable question mark over there Soft 7 (Heavy) form. Music Magnate is more suited to a wet surface comparing him to Takedown. Punting Form have sided with noted wet tracker Hopfgarten who appears to map well. I fear he now may lack the sharpness to win over 1200m.

The value appears to be with Group 1 Tatts Tiara winner Miss Cover Girl. She beat Azkadelia over 1400m here on a Soft 5, and despite not being first up on that occasion I think she trialled well enough and has the talent to win this. Horses by Monashee Mountain grow a leg on wet tracks and shifting ground, so at $19 in the early market she’s a great play.

Daniel O’Sullivan from TRB has marked both Music Magnate and Takedown much longer than the early market prices. Read why he’s siding with the up and comer Tumbler here.

Insider Suggests

 BACK (E/W) Miss Cover Gir

Hawkesbury Race 7 | Hawkesbury Guineas | 1400m | 3:35pm

Punting Form have indicated that Calanda appears a run short for this event stepping from 1100m to 1400m looking at the Race profile. Despite mapping well, I can’t price it at the $5.00 on offer in the early market. Spright looks to have the right lead up form, running on strongly in the Arrowfield Stakes when not much went right. Chautauqua and Spill The Beans both won this event using that event as a lead up.

Importantly from an inside draw Kerrin McEvoy can get her much closer in running. Some punters might query here stepping up to 1400m but the likely even tempo should allow her to finish over the top of them.

Lincoln Blue (ex-Kiwi) has strong NZ between 1600-2000m. He was a complete forgive in the NZ Derby behind Gingernuts after bucking shortly after the start. He’s probably not suited at this distance but is the one to follow up to Queensland for the Derby.

Vince Accardi’s RSPs have rated Generalissimo on top slightly but I have big reservations about this galloper transferring his recent form to a dry track.

Insider Suggests

 BACK (WIN) Spright

 LAY (WIN) Calanda

Hawkesbury Race 8 | Hawkesbury Cup | 1600m | 4:15pm

The race profile suggests that horses with 56.5kg or less are most suited and there’s also a lean to horses third up or deeper into their preparation. Punting Form are with Spectroscope who looks well suited from a class and distance perspective. I have him mapping much closer than the PF map which adds to my confidence.

The other value in the race appears to be Mighty Lucky who ran a huge race first up in the Hall Mark stakes with 58.5kg. There’s an argument to say he should have won last year’s cup second up when blocked for a clear run. This year the set-up is slightly different 1200m-1600m but a run on a Heavy 8 and a barrier trial back in mid-February suggests that he’ll be forward enough to win.

Fabrizio went awful first-up. He’ll lead but I can’t possibly have him at the price despite an OK trial on a very foggy morning at Hawkesbury in the pea soup fog. He’s a fierce going beast that looks like he needs a change of environment. Vince’s RSPs also rate him poorly in the mid and closing speed sections.

Insider Suggests

 BACK (WIN) Spectroscope

 BACK (WIN) Mighty Lucky

 LAY (WIN) Fabrizio

Morphettville Race 8 | Chairman’s Stakes | 2030m | 4:54pm

Anaheim might stay at Caulfield which won’t affect the speed map but have a dramatic effect on the market as he’s installed a $3.30 favourite. Curly Seal is laying him if he starts with a drop back in distance a concern and thinking he needs a bone dry track to produce his best.

Punting Form side with Grand Chancellor who has a last start PB benchmark figure of -10.3 into the race. If he can improve on that performance he’ll undoubtedly be in the finish.

A horse I mentioned a fortnight ago was Screamarr who was beaten less than two lengths in the Frank Packer Plate behind Mongolian Wolf.  I expect that run to have brought him on considerably in fitness and despite being rather new to the game he can roll forward and run to a new career PB rating to win this event.

Insider Suggests

 BACK (WIN) Screamarr

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