Despite a miserable Thursday with 32mm hitting Randwick, the card is mouth-watering. The likely Slow 7 to Heavy 9 helps us narrow down the chances, so confidence is relatively high once again. The Bendigo stand-alone day looks promising from a betting perspective so we can cherry pick the best of that card too…

Randwick Race 1 | Kindergarten Stakes | 1100m | 12:10pm

Colts have dominated the Kindergarten in recent time winning the last five renewals. Punting Form Feature Race Reports indicate we are looking for horses raced within a three-week period. Condor Heroes fits the profile and had superior overall figures compared to Sheika who also raced at Warwick Farm in her lead up. Condor Heroes can sit on speed here and control the race on a suitable heavy surface.

Insider Suggests

 BACK (WIN) Condor Heroes

Randwick Race 2 | Carbine Club | 1600m | 12:45pm

Not a race with typical patterns in the profile looking at classic lead up races. With that in mind Punting Form suggest backing ‘rock hard’ fit horses. Two runners that produced strong third up performances last time were Eusebio and Zenalicious.

Eusebio has risen through the grades sharply winning all three starts this preparation. Stepping up to Group 3 level, from such a negative map position. However, his breeding suggests that 1600m will be positive as will a rain-affected surface. Daniel O’Sullivan has rated the Godolphin gelding $3.60 making the early market price of $5.00 big value. Read his preview here.

Zenalicious profiles well for a filly taking on the boys. She returned to form sharply behind Foxplay in the Pharlap Stakes, which is a proven path of past winners of the Carbine Club. She can sprint sharply off a slow or fast tempo and looks hard to beat on anything better than a heavy nine.

Insider Suggests

BACK (WIN) Eusebio

Bendigo Race 3 | Vobis Gold Rush | 1000m | 1:35pm

The Analysts have previewed the Bendigo feature day. With Limestone heading to Adelaide scratched as the odds on prepost favourite there looks to be a value bet in this race. Pure Scot impressed on debut in a slowly run race and will be spotting Speed Street a big start. However, as The Analysts have said expect big improvement from the Hayes/Dabernig trained 2yo despite a very negative map position in running.

Insider Suggests

 BACK (WIN) Pure Scot

Randwick Race 7 | AJC Derby | 2400m | 3:50pm

The Rosehill Guineas is the dominant lead up looking at past AJC Derby winners. Punting Form have narrowed the race down to Inference who follows that path and Prized Icon who returned to form sharply in the Tulloch Stakes. I’m against the 7 day back up siding with the traditional Feature Report, preferring Inference who is 14 days between runs. He overcame early trouble in the guineas to run to the line strongly behind Gingernuts. The inside draw is too his advantage and it’s well documented how unlucky he was at 2500m in the VRC Derby. He appears the best of runners hard in the market and is capable on any going.

Dave Dwyer boasts a 100% strike rate in this season’s Bookies Bag competition. Unbeaten after 11 weeks. He’s taking on Gingernuts at $3.30, he feels that price is no value as the gelding is coming here for his seventh start this preparation.

Vince Accardi’s Race Speed Profiles have Gingernuts rated on top slightly with superior mid and late closing speed. Hardham, Prized Icon, So Si Bon & Jon Snow rate next best in an even renewal according to his ratings.

Insider Suggests

 LAY (WIN) Gingernuts

Bendigo Race 7 | Golden Mile | 1600m | 4:10pm

Burning Front finally appears a good lay betting option. Both Jonathan Walsh & Ray Swannie are taking on the Weir gelding with 60.5kg with extra speed likely here. Lining up for his 10th start this preparation I’m wary that his last two start ratings are a touch soft looking at the make-up of this field. The Analysts are laying three middle pin runners in He Or She, Show A Star & Zebrinz. I’m extremely worried that all will be suited by the race shape but concede Zebrinz has drawn awfully for his racing pattern.

Insider Suggests

 LAY (WIN) Burning Front

 LAY (WIN) Zebrinz up to 11

Randwick Race 8 | TJ Smith Stakes | 1200m | 4:30pm

Russian Revolution rates on top with Vince Accardi and Punting Form. That tells me $6.00 won’t last on the exchange by start time. Being a front-runner that opens up a great Back-To-Lay opportunity. I have some reservations about him running out a strong 1200m in this company. He also come here off a PB benchmark performance according to the Feature Race Reports. Was it Grand Final day last start or was is it this week? Team Snowden are genius trainers but Weight-For-Age level is a different ball game as is 1100m Rosehill v 1200m Randwick.

The race profile favours horses coming through the Newmarket handicap. It was a poor rating race due to lack of tempo but to my eye two horses look suited to the traditionally fast run 1200m at Randwick.

Voodoo Lad is the obvious error in the market at $17. He holds a 14.9 lengths faster than BM PB rating on a Soft 7 rated Flemington track. He dropped a 10.1 faster than BM first up in the Newmarket and gets a suitable soft track Saturday. That is the perfect platform to run close to his PB performance and knowing Darren Weir, his horses always improve further into their preparations. He maps in the first three pairs in running for Damien Lane and will take a world of beating if he can find a fair going in the home straight.

Spieth continues to be the victim of circumstance in his races. Pilot error in the Lightning Stakes and lack of tempo last start. His best racing is with clear air 600m to home with high-pressure racing. If the track dries to a slow six, his barrier draw of 13 could be ideal.

Insider Suggests

 BACK (E/W) Voodoo Lad

Randwick Race 9 | Doncaster Handicap | 1600m | 5:10pm

Vince Accardi’s RSPs have three horses rating clearly above others in the Doncaster. Le Romain, Happy Clapper and Hey Doc. Importantly the Feature Race Reports line up on Le Romain and Hey Doc. Both horses map exceptionally well in an On/Pace to Midfield position and both horses hold PB benchmark ratings at 1600m. The only negative I can find is the fact that they may have already peaked in their preparation, that aside they profile tremendously.

Happy Clapper looks ready to peak here with weight relief after an arrogant performance in the Newcastle Newmarket. His peak PB benchmark rating is this track and trip on a slow six at 18.5 lengths faster than BM. That was behind Winx last year with only 50.5kg. A return to that rating or even four lengths inferior has him winning four of the past five Doncaster’s. I lean his way ever so slightly but will not be getting heavily involved in the race.

McCreery was as ‘dead as a door nail’ last start in the George Ryder with negative tactics from the outset. Others ready to spike sharply in ratings underrated by the market are It’s Somewhat and New Tipperary.

Insider Suggests

 BACK (WIN) Happy Clapper


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