Quality racing in multiple states this week. Ascot kicks off our weekend on Friday as the stand alone meeting in Australia. Taboo? I think not. Randwick remains Heavy 8 with a possibility of getting to a Slow 7 but we’ve heard that chat for weeks so we’ll believe that when we see it. The rail is out to 7m and last week was much fairer racing. The outside fence is likely to be off in the straight from what I’ve heard. Caulfield hosts the Easter Cup and Victoria Handicap that appears like great betting races.

Ascot Race 7 | W.A Produce Stakes | 1400m | 4:45pm

Loved the placing of Debellatio in the Karrakatta Stakes which is the best lead up for this event. Despite drawing barrier nine I’m happy to back the colt as I feel the extra room to wind up will suit him, he looks like he’s crying out for 1400m but may back him late with the market possibly keen to take him on close to evens. Punting Form’s Feature Race Report is available here.

Insider Suggests 

 BACK (WIN) Debellatio

Randwick Race 4 | Hall Mark Stakes | 1200m | 1:50pm

Redzel has been poorly weighted and with 58kg appeals as the best lay bet of the race. He’ll race on the speed with Takedown and life won’t be easy for him.

Dave Dwyer from the Bookies Bag layed his first winner last week. He’s striking at 90% and is runner second on the leader board behind Kevin Saber. He’s siding with Takedown, Clearly Innocent and Hellbent which I agree look better value than Redzel.

His best figures according to Punting Form are at 1000-1100m and Vince’s RSPs indicate he’s likely to be weak in his closing section. In a tough event with plenty resuming here let’s put the pen through him at 1200m!

Insider Suggests 

 LAY (WIN) Redzel

Randwick Race 5 | JRA Plate | 2000m | 2:25pm

Really difficult race to assess with multiple winning chances. Was keen on New Tipperary as a blowout Doncaster chance but thought he was a bit plain. I’m keen to lay him off his wide draw here at the $5-6 mark.

Astronomos has drawn barrier one and hit a career PB benchmark rating last start. A repeat of that performance has him winning this. Happy Hannah looks ready to spike and Vince’s RSPs rate her strongly mid and late. Big Blue is first up in Australia off some good trials. He handles soft and his European form measures up here. Slow Pace is going better than his form suggests and look at how close he finished to New Tipperary first up in the Ajax Stakes!!

Insider Suggests

 LAY (WIN) New Tipperary

Randwick Race 6 | Champagne Stakes | 1600m | 3:05pm

Invader was impressive in the Sires Produce which is a standout profile for the Champagne Stakes. He absorbed plenty of pressure up front and accelerated strongest with the fastest last 400 and 200m splits of the race. That screams quality and I’m confident 1600m will suit him.

Plenty will argue that he was in the right spot in transit but he still got the job done and the apparent danger Whispered Secret looks likely to be spotting him a big start. Punting form are also suggesting to take that galloper on.

Insider Suggests

  BACK (WIN) Invader

Randwick Race 7 | All Aged Stakes | 1400m | 3:45pm

Very surprised that more TJ Smith horses didn’t go another step deeper into their preparations for this event and consequently it looks a very weak renewal of the race. Le Romain, Redkirk Warrior, Voodoo Lad, English and Divine Prophet look to have the race between them.

Le Romain has synthetic hoof filler again and comes here fifth up dropping back from the Doncaster. He profiles well for the race but I prefer horses specifically targeted for G1 events, not afterthoughts. Punting Form are inclined to lay him but looking at Vince’s RSPs I’m not prepared to risk him given how strong he appears in all three stages of the race.

Divine Prophet has been well backed and he’s a chance to drift back out in the market. I love the freshen off his Guineas run and if he can replicate his CF Orr performance behind Black Heart Bart he’ll be in the finish here. I’m not convinced he’s as good as English (2016) or All Too Hard (2013) but he might not need to be. The race looks set up for a closer and the small field suits his get back style. There’s been a good pattern of ‘Good track’ Melbourne horses coming to race once on the heavy to upstage the fancied Sydney runners backing up on multiple heavy track runs. Blinkers on first time and back the Sydney way of going get me 100% over the line with him.

Daniel O’Sullivan from TRB is siding with English, rating her a $2.90 chance. I’m neutral on her chances but couldn’t back her at the early price, I rate her as short as Daniel or entertain the early market quote despite profiling well for the race.

Insider Suggests

 BACK (WIN) Divine Prophet

Caulfield Race 8 | Victoria Handicap | 1400m | 4:05pm

Race favourite Hellova Street maps perfectly from barrier four. He’s a horse capable of sprinting off very fast tempo and interestingly he holds a 2yr PB Benchmark figure at this track over 1600m. That augers well for this race shape.

The race profile suggests that the class horse can win with a big weight. There’s multiple horses that almost qualify. Fast ‘n’ Rocking and Charmed Harmony look the big improvers who can run well. Looking at preparation I’d be shocked if Charmed Harmony didn’t spike hard back to his home track and pet distance.

Insider Suggests

 BACK (WIN) Hellova Street

 BACK (WIN) Charmed Harmony

Randwick Race 8 | JB Carr Stakes  | 1400m | 4:25pm

I’ve always had a big opinion of Prompt Response. The PJ Bell is a great indicator of G1 talent amongst fillies. She was in the best part of the track but almost defied the race profile of the PJ Bell by winning first up on a very testing surface. $6.00 early looks a very fair price, I wouldn’t be shocked to see her smashed into $3.60-$3.80.

Insider Suggests

 BACK (WIN) Prompt Response

Caulfield Race 9 | Easter Cup | 1400m | 4:45pm

A few of the Melbourne Bookmakers on the Bookies Bag have made villain Tom Melbourne their lay of the day. I’m really surprised by this as his best figures have him clear on top. His trial is worth watching here. Can’t really believe the logic but Lee Freedman is looking at scratching the horse due to the wide barrier!

I think the race is between him and fellow OTI galloper Grey Lion. Staying imports generally improve at their second preparation in Australia so respect the market moves surrounding this galloper.

Insider Suggests

 BACK (WIN) Tom Melbourne

 BACK (WIN) Grey Lion

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