Caulfield Rail True. The track will stay in the Good 3 range and perhaps it will be slightly harder with high temperatures forecast. In that scenario it could become leader bias unless there’s no tempo up front.

Caulfield R4 | G3 Carlyon Cup 1600m SW+P | 14:15pm

Looks a false favourite at the top of the betting here in Gailo Chop. Despite having Mark Zahra and barrier with a positive position on the speed map he’s a 7yo first up close to even money and I’m saying he needs 2000m to produce his best racing at this stage of his career. A horse like Master Reset can be a nuisance for him as can Lord Fandango kicking up from barrier one.

Lord Fandango was huge in the Caulfield Cup beaten only 1.9 lengths after a strong win in the Herbert Power. He could be a run short for this but 1600m gives him a chance against a moderate lot. 57.5kg is plenty of weight when lining him up against a horse like Harlem.

Harlem looks set for this race. Kerrin McEvoy takes the ride after winning four of nine races last weekend in Sydney. The Hayes/Dabernig team have gelded the horse and if returns anything like he did last preparation in the Heatherlie where he was an eye-catching run, he’ll be hard to hold out. The negative is an inside draw and negative position on the map but outside that there’s not much of a case against him

Seaburge is the joker in the pack, dropping 4kg from an OK first up run behind Tshahitsi but I’d need to see him do it once more before I could trust the horse again.

Insider Suggests

 BACK (WIN) Harlem for 2 units

 BACK (WIN) Lord Fandango for 0.5 units

Caulfield R8 | G1 CF Orr Stakes 1400m WFA| 4:45pm

Deep edition of the CF Orr stakes and going out on a limb saying that Mr Sneaky can take the step from handicapper to WFA. Looking at the Punting Form feature race reports the Australia Stakes is a clear profile race and I thought Mr Sneaky had the perfect lead up run looking to this 1400m event.

He posted strong figures at this track and distance in spring and even posted strong numbers at Flemington over 1400m. I’m not convinced 1600m is a distance that suits so this looks to be his ‘Grand Final’ with other key chances possibly vulnerable first up. Kerrin McEvoy take the ride and Barrier 13 is awkward but with other speed drawn wide he can come across with them and sit three pairs back in the running line. His best asset is a booming finish so clear air is what he needs for 400m.

Beyond Mr Sneaky I can make a case for half a dozen runners. Interested to see where Shillelagh maps in running and that mare could be an In-Play betting option if she’s not a mile back buried on the fence.

Insider Suggests

 BACK (WIN) Mr Sneaky for 1 Unit

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