Rail +3m. With minimal wind. Expecting the track play fairly with run on horses able to work into the race out wide.


Flemington R7 | Seppelt Wines Stakes Listed | 1800m | 4:15pm 

Black Sail is the standout value bet for this. Huge performance last start at Caulfield when three weeks between runs, he tracked wide and only got tired late off a frantic tempo. Temple Of Bel bloused him late after tracking him into the race. If you watch the replay you can see Black Sail clearly fatigue in the final 200m and run in under pressure.

No excuses here back to Flemington which suits his running style and 1800m suits now fully fit. Damian Lane stays with him and from Barrier 6 he can settle closer.

Sambro was weak through the line last time and looks well under the odds at $3.00 in early betting.

Woulda Thought So failed badly but pulled up lame last time but still managed to run home the second fastest last 200m split. Back to a big track suits as does winkers. Don’t expect the market to like or find him but if there’s a horse capable of jumping out of the ground at 1800m it’s him.

Both runners profile well looking at Vince Accardi’s Race Speed Profiles. Black Sail with strong mid-race speed and Woulda Thought So with the best late closing speed.

Insider Suggests 

 BACK (WIN) Black Sail

 BACK (SAVE) Woulda Thought So


Flemington R8 |  Kennedy Oaks G1 | 2500m | 5:00pm 

Aloisia $1.66 on the exchange in from $1.78. The only negative I can find with Geoff McMurray shares looking at his pedigree report is the single run over a mile and then again at 2000m. To counter that argument she is running fast times and appears to be a class above this crop of 3yo fillies (and colts). You often hear trainers speak of ‘Clean Winded’ horses or natural athletes that require less work to get fit and recover than other horses. This filly falls into that category.

Paul Daily from Ratings2Win rates Aloisia $1.37 favourite from Pinot $12.10 and Luvaluva $15.10.

Pinot bolted in the Oaks trial here two starts back over 1800m but the overall time was only fair. Controlled the Ethereal from start to finish but looked very dour doing so and her sectional profile suggests similar. Can’t doubt her foundation for this run and almost three weeks between runs could freshen her up. Will need to be a long, long way in front of Aloisia to hold her out.

Blake Shinn’s ride on Luvaluva was 11/10 in the Wakeful Stakes, saved every inch of ground in the best part of the track. The fastest splits from 800m to the winning post. On the quick back-up she looks the best chance of an upset with another safe drawn in Barrier 10.

Insider Suggests 

 BACK (WIN) Aloisia


Related Articles

Feature Race Analysis: Melbourne Cup

"The betting for the 2017 running of the Melbourne Cup is very open with Marmelo holding favouritism at the ...

Read More