Rail True. With overnight rain the cut is out of the track and expect runners to get off the fence as the day progresses. All runners should get their chance to win.


Geelong R6 | Geelong Classic Listed | 2200m | 3:20pm 

Confident in two runners here that can bounce off their lead up runs and fight this out. Savaheat caught my eye at Benalla when running on second up over 1400m. Since then, its last start win at Adelaide in the Hill Smith Stakes over 1800m was full of merit from a mile back in running. He savaged the line that day and sting out should be no issue whatsoever. He’s taking the backdoor into the Derby and may give his stablemate Cliff’s Edge a real race in the final at Flemington.

Weather With You looks the danger to my eye. Both Godolphin runners hard in the market look plain to my eye so I’m betting around them. Weather With you can settle closer from Barrier 5 and his mid sections between the 1000-200m points were OK with a view to this race as a target. He’s almost three weeks between runs and perhaps half a run short being ultra-critical. Murray Baker like Darren Weir is an exceptional trainer and if he’s supported in betting today be very wary.

The Analysts rate Animalia $4.50 favourite.

Insider Suggests 

 BACK (WIN) Savaheat

 BACK (SAVE) Weather With You


Geelong R7 | Geelong Cup G3 | 2400m | 4:00pm 

Gallic Cheiftain is the early market favourite at $3.05 on the Exchange. Punting Form side rate him on top with the Herbert Power form looking the strongest and suggesting his position on the map being favourite forward of midfield. Last start he was exposed a little early and that doesn’t need to be the case at Geelong. Looking at Vince’s Race Speed Profiles the race shape looks to suit and his late closing speed will make it hard to hold Gallic Chieftain out.

I’m happy to be with the favourite and if he sneaks into the Melbourne Cup field I’d want him on my side. Well done in the Order Of Entry and needs plenty of attrition or a Saab win on Derby Day to sneak into the field.

The Analysts rate Kellstorm $3.80 favourite and I’m surprised they can get him that short. He looks more one paced when comparing to his stablemate Gallic Chieftain and if the track was in the heavy range he may be better suited.

Wheal Leisure has shown glimpses of talent. She upset Hardham in the Inglis cup and could be even better now she’s matured stepping back out to 2400m. Might need to run to a career peak to win but if she drifts in betting to above double figures odds I could be tempted to save late.

Insider Suggests 

 BACK (WIN) Gallic Chieftain


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