Track expected to play fairly with the Rail True and Good 4 the most likely rating. Paul Daily’s insight on how the track will play can be found at the top of his Victoria Derby preview here.


Flemington R5 | G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes 1200m | 1200m | 2:25pm 

Daniel O’Sullivan has previewed the G1 for 3yo’s rating the Waterhouse/Bott trained filly Invincible Star $6.50. That’s aggressive pricing with $12 available in early betting. “She was outstanding last start at Caulfield, running very impressive figures on the clock when she bolted in by 4L. That win was a +1.5L new peak on her high rating debut win over 1000m at this track on 1st November last year… an early indicator of her top-class potential.”

Punting Form side with Goodfella and Virdine. Both are well credentialed but are very exposed. I can make a case for a handful on runner’s here. A horse that ran Goodfella to a length last time was Andaz, he did that 7 weeks between runs and is a winner up the straight here at start number two. Daniel O’Sullivan has rated him $41 and with $61-71 available in the early market I’m happy to back him each-way with a staking strategy of 1 win x 4 places.

Insider Suggests 

 BACK (EACH WAY) Andaz


Flemington R6 | G1 Myer Classic 1600m | 1600m | 3:05pm 

One of the few favourites I’ll be siding with for the day is Shoals. I Am A Star broke the race profile open last year with 49kg and from what I’ve seen thus far Shoals may be classier. Only bettered by Aloisia who looks a superstar in the making this filly has finished no further back than second at all six career starts boasting four wins with one of those a strong win at this track over 1200m. Blinkers off now is an interesting move but three weeks between runs at the mile here she’ll be very hard to run past with 50kg.

Insider Suggests 

 BACK (EACH WAY) Shoals


Flemington R7 | G1 AAMI Victoria Derby 2500m | 2500m | 3:50pm

No standout runner in this year’s renewal. Paul Daily from Ratings2Win has Tangled rated favourite at $5.40 from Ace High $6.37 and Main Stage $8.06 rounding out chances below $10. He likes the addition of blinkers to Tangled and expects him to race handy.

I can’t really knock that line of thinking but perhaps Tangled is a little immature and will be a better horse in the autumn. Geoff McMurray from the Pro Lays (Leading that competition) has provided a unique look at this race from a pedigree analysis perspective.

“Pedigree analysis allows you to make an assessment of any horse’s inherited racing ability and speed profile which provides an insight as to its optimal racing distance.” – Geoff McMurray

His full preview can be found here. Weather With You has a “AAA grade pedigree” and looking at his Geelong Classic win it was tough and full of merit. I suggested that day he was likely to be a run short and his 400m indicated that was the case. There’s few better trainers on the planet of stayers than Murray Baker, this is the only race he’s been set for and I’ve rated him favourite with such a positive position on the speed map.

The biggest danger appears to be the runner up of that same race, Oceans Fourteen. If you watch the replay of the Geelong Classic very closely you see how well this horse relaxes in running for Luke Nolen. He jumped from a mile to 2200m on that occasion so will have come on significantly fitness wise but looks certain to run out a strong 2500m. Geoff McMurray rates him an ‘A Grade’ pedigree rating which confirms my confidence and his last 600m splits home were superior to Weather With You.

Whilst I respect the Sydney Colts I fear they have little to no improvement left in them. They might not require it to win but at their current market prices I see no value in the early market.

The other two worth consideration are Sully (small query a month between runs) and Greycliffe (Won with bias and big leap in grade).

Insider Suggests 

 BACK (WIN) Weather With You

 BACK (WIN) Oceans Fourteen


Flemington R8 | G1 Kennedy (Cantala/Emirates) Mile | 1600m | 4:35pm 

Ask five different Analysts who wins this race and you’re likely to get five different answers. Punting Form’s race profile leans heavily to 4yo’s and horses with 56.5kg or less. Also favouring horses four or more runs into their preparation that settles midfield or forward.

A horse that fits this profile with huge class is Egg Tart. Her Brisbane winter victories were soft. It might pay to ignore her last start flop in the Toorak as she was over month between runs off a set back with an eye infection. She maps well here for the in-form Kerrin McEvoy. Paul Daily has her second pick in the market at $7.79 behind Lucky Hussler $5.50. I expect the market to risk her tomorrow so will be backing her BSP. The market won’t fancy So Si Bon. What a trilogy, the horse itself and the combination of Craig Newitt and Robbie Laing. Looking back to march he ran a big race at this track and distance in the Australian Guineas behind Hey Doc. He’s racing very well and will get to a big price.

Not 100% convinced he has the class but Chris Waller may have improved All Our Roads enough to go very close here. First up in Sydney he was terrific behind Sir Plush who was airborne. Second up at Caulfield he zipped home on a track slightly favouring leaders after a pretty conservative ride. Here he is third up dropping 6.5kg albeit jumping in grade. The early market has come for him $18-$21 into $13, if he stays hard in the market he’s the other roughie that looks specifically set for this race, that’s something most of these runners cannot boast!

Insider Suggests 

 BACK (WIN) Egg Tart (BSP)

 BACK (WIN) So Si Bon

 BACK (WIN) All Our Roads


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