Ascot Race 7 | WA Guineas | 1600m 3YO Open SW G2 | 7.15pm

The Track

The track is currently a Good 4 with a sunny 34c forecast for Saturday, which should see it improve to a genuine Good 3.

Expect the track to race well, with ground from the fence to four horses off suitable in the straight. On pace / handy horses will be well suited.


Speed and Tactics 

Expect at least a genuine speed here, if not faster. Sophias Secret (12) will press forward and Art Series (9) is likely to do the same. Gaulois (17) is also some chance to press forward, which would create extra pressure into the race. Closer to the inside, Vital Dancer (4) can show early speed and attempt to lead with Salubrious (2) and Achernar Star (3) also prominent.

Early Pace Rating: Genuine to Above Average

Late Pace Rating: Moderate to Below Average

Best Suited: Lead to 4 lengths off.


WFA Performance Ratings – Winning Benchmark

Based on the lead up form of contenders, a rating in the 93-95 range at the weights will be required to win this race

Race Assessment

3. MONEY MAHER: FORECAST 94 - 96. ASSESSED $5.00

He was highly impressive winning over 1400m last start, running fast time with strong sustained closing sectionals. He brings the best rating into this race and looks ideally suited by a step up to 1600m. The main concern is his lack of early pace and the prospect of spotting the leaders a huge head start turning for home. He’s a leading contender for the race, but that get-back running style presents considerable betting risk.

14. PERFECT JEWEL: FORECAST 92 - 94.5. ASSESSED $6.00

She ran very well last start, covering ground and closing well over 1400m in the LR won by Mikimoto. She’s still lightly raced and on the way up with a step to 1600m likely to be more suitable. An awkward draw is likely to see her settle a long way back in the field though.

4. SALUBRIOUS: FORECAST 92 - 94. ASSESSED $8.00

He brings a different form line to this race, coming through the G2 WFA Lee Steere two weeks ago against older horses. He ran well in that race to be beaten just 0.5L with a rating that measures up very competitive here. The step up to 1600m is an unknown but there’s no evidence from that last run to say he’s a risk. With solid rating credentials and the ability to race forward in the field, he looks a genuine chance at double figure odds in the market.

1. ACHERNAR STAR: FORECAST 92 - 93. ASSESSED $10.00

He was 2L 2nd to Money Maher last start but his performance was solid and he has the ability to settle handy to the pace, whereas a few of other others will be back in the field and much more subject to luck in running. He’s certainly a longshot that could run well in this race.

9. ARCADIA PRINCE: FORECAST 89 - 92. ASSESSED $11.00

He started favourite behind Money Maher last start, but raced flat when beaten 3.3L. If he can bounce back from that then his prior rating over 1400m with the prospect of appreciating a step up to 1600m says he can be very competitive.

13. ART SERIES: 89 - 92. ASSESSED $11.00

Had a good run and got the bob to win the WA Champion Fillies race over 1600m last Saturday. She’s drawn more awkwardly here but has ratings that are right in the competitive zone.

5. GAULOIS: FORECAST 90 - 93.5. ASSESSED $21.00

He was given no hope when caught wide in the G3 Carbine Club at Flemington last start. His ratings profile suggests he can be very competitive, but he has another very difficult barrier draw to overcome.

15. PRIVATE DANCER: FORECAST 89 - 91. ASSESSED $23.00

Just beaten by Art Series last Saturday after covering ground and taking off early. There was merit in that run to say she has the talent to be competitive here, but another wide draw will make it difficult.

16. SOPHIAS SECRET: FORECAST 88 - 91. ASSESSED $26.00

Her ratings aren’t far off the required standard, but a step up to 1600m looks more likely to see her rate lower than reach a new peak.

2. DEBELLATIO: FORECAST 88 - 90. ASSESSED $61.00

Beaten 4.9L behind Money Maher last start after being caught wide the trip, but comes into this race just 2nd up and needs a clear new career peak. That doesn’t appeal as the right set up here.

11. THREE SECRETS: FORECAST 88 - 90. ASSESSED $34.00

Three runs this prep have been poor. Looks outclassed.

6. REYKJAVIK: FORECAST 87 - 89. ASSESSED $51.00

Hit the line okay behind Money Maher last start, but is well exposed here and needs to run a big new peak.

7. ROGANELLA: FORECAST 88 - 90. ASSESSED $61.00

Comes off a dominant 3.3L win LS but the standard was still a number of lengths below what will be needed to win this.

18. BRUTUS MAXIMUS: FORECAST 87 - 89 ASSESSED $61.00

Has only had two starts and ran home well behind Money Maher last start. He looks likely to appreciate 1600m so it wouldn’t totally surprise if made significant improvement but the jump needed to win looks far too large. If there was one at massive odds that could run a place, then he’s probably it.

12. VITAL DANCER: FORECAST 85-88. ASSESSED $151.00

Led and was well beaten by Money Maher and others over 1400m last start.

17. HOODLUM THUNDER: FORECAST 81-87. ASSESSED $251.00

Comes into this first up since August off a 3.5L midweek win that returned only moderate figures. That’s far from the ideal set up to be competitive in this race.

10. ATHLETE: FORECAST 79-85. ASSESSED $301.00

Comes into this race first up without every rating close to the standard needed to be competitive here.

8. TURBO POWER: FORECAST 77-88. ASSESSED $1,001.00

Looks totally outclassed after being well beaten at big odds in recent starts.

Betting Strategy

There’s no denying the credentials of both Money Maher and Perfect Jewel for this race, but the prospect that they will both be a long way back in this big field turning for home presents considerable betting risk. It’s difficult to see what the market is underestimating about them to suggest they’re genuine value.

If there is a play in this race then I think it’s to gamble on two longer priced horses (both around $14-$15 at time of writing) that look underestimated by the market. They both bring competitive form / rating credentials and will make their own luck in the run by settling handy to the lead.

 BACK – Salubrios to WIN at $8.00 [Stake 0.5% of your total bank]

 BACK – Achernar Star to WIN at $10.00 [Stake 0.4% of your total bank]


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