Caulfield Race 5 | The Vain Stakes | 1100m G3 | 2.40pm

The Track

The track is currently a Good 3, but some irrigation is planned and there is the possibility of some overnight rain.

In all likelihood we’ll be racing on a Good 4 surface to start the day. We expect the track to race evenly without a major pattern.


SPEED & TACTICS

Rock Hard (4) and Tony Nicconi (5) look to cross those inside comfortably to take up the running.  High Ratio (7) will likely follow them across and could put some extra pressure into the race, but D Oliver’s style suggests he’s more likely to look for a sit off them.

Early Pace Rating: Average

Late Pace Rating: Average

Best Suited: Lead to 3 lengths off lead.


WFA PERFORMANCE RATINGS – WINNING BENCHMARK

Many of these are first up, but there’s plenty of rating references across the field in the 91.5 to 94 range (at the weights to be carried) so it’s impossible to see the race won in anything less than that.


Race Assessment

6. Tony Nicconi: Forecast 93 - 95. Assessed $2.10

Was very impressive winning on debut by 4L in good time by 2YO standards. His rating gives him a clear edge over this opposition and I like the combination of the early speed figures he showed in that run back to 1100m here off a freshen up.

4. The August: Forecast 90 - 92. Assessed $6.50

Has won two from two with ratings that can win this race. If he can hold the box seat then that will certainly help his chances, but if he can’t then barrier 1 is likely to become a disadvantage.

1. Long Leaf: Forecast 90 - 91.1 Assessed $9.00

Resumes here from a heavy 2YO Autumn campaign. He’s been very consistent around a rating level that is very competitive, but may need a slight new peak to win.

5. Native Soldier: Forecast 88 - 91 Assessed $11.00

He showed talent when 2L 3rd to Written By in the BD Prelude, but a hot speed did suit that day and it’s not Weir’s style to have them at their peak first up. He could win, but looks under the odds to me at $5.00. Happy to risk.

2. Ollivander: Forecast 89 - 92 Assessed $12.00

Resumes here and his early rating in December 2017 / January 2018 can be very competitive in this. He’s a longshot that could run well.

3. Rock Hard: Forecast 88 - 90 Assessed $16.00

Has won three from three in easier grade but needs a big new peak to get to the winning standard of this race.

7. High Ratio: Forecast 84 - 88 Assessed $67.00

Had every chance in a midweek last start. Yet to get anywhere near the winning standard of this race.

10. Taxi: Forecast FS Assessed $81.00

First starter – would be a surprise.

9. Titan Blinders: Forecast 84 - 87 Assessed $101.00

Beaten in a Geelong Maiden LS. Looks outclassed here.

8. Syds Coin: Forecast 84 - 86 Assessed $151.00

Looks outclassed - Yet to get anywhere near the winning standard of this race.


Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Tony Nicconi at >$2.10 – Stake 2% of your total bank.


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