Doomben Race 6 | The Magic Millions Roses | 2000m 3YOF G2 SW | 3:21pm

The Track

The track is currently a Soft 7 with rain forecast for Friday into Saturday morning. There are varying forecasts of between 10mm and 60mm. What seems certain though is that there will be rain, which means the track will be at least a Heavy 8, if not worse.

The rail is out 2.5m for this meeting, after being in the True position on Soft ground last Saturday. They raced close to the fence last week, but more than 2.5m of the track was certainly used in the straight, so the rail shift may not be enough to get them off the wear and tear that last meeting created.

That factor combined with the broader history of similar meeting set ups suggests that the ground a couple of horses off the fence around the turn and in the straight may offer an advantage. Anywhere from on the lead to midfield is likely to be suitable if able to get away from the rail in the straight, especially as the meeting progresses. Horses a long way back may struggle unless the pace is especially suitable.

Speed and Tactics

There looks to be a distinct lack of speed in this race. Drawn middle to wider the likes of Savan (7), Candika (8),and Shenandoah (14) could press forward.  Further inside we have The Pinnacle (5) and Lipstick Lover (3) that will be prominent.

They key issue is that while there may be some hustle and bustle early with some wider drawn runners coming across to find positions, none of these horses are free running types and the map doesn’t look to present a structure that will create a great deal of artificial pressure.

The unexpected can always happen, but this looks a race much like the main lead up, the Gold Coast Bracelet (1800m) where they went particularly slowly through the middle stages and the race became a fast sprint home.

Early Pace Rating: Slow to moderate

Late Pace Rating: Above average to fast

Best Suited: Lead to 3L off the lead.

WFA Performance Ratings – Winning Benchmark

The lead up form and overall profile of key contenders in this race suggests that a rating of 94-95 at the weights will be required to win.

Race Assessment

6. The Pinnacle: Forecast 92.5-94. Assessed $4.80

Was a very solid 1.5L 2nd to Dawn Wall last start after covering some extra ground in the run (slow pace though.) She looks to get an ideal trip up near the lead in another slow run race and is certainly in this among the top few chances. She has proven very effective on wet, so if the track is H9 or worse than we would mark her notably shorter at the expense of Dawn Wall and a couple of others and would want to be on her.

2. Kenedna: Forecast 94-95.5. Assessed $5

She’s flying at the moment and comes off a string of recent performances in Adelaide with overall figures that can match it with Dawn Wall. Her challenge is that she gets well back in her races and the pace here looks likely to be slower than she’s encountered so far. This is also her 10th run in the current campaign and there’s no doubt that coming to QLD is somewhat of an afterthought. Those factors detract from her betting appeal at the current market price, but there’s no doubt she’s capable of winning if the breaks in-running go her way.

5. Oklahoma Girl: Forecast 90-94. Assessed $13

She’s been racing very well in Sydney and comes into this with overall ratings that can be very competitive. The issue is that she’s likely to settle back in a race that lacks genuine speed so there is a query if she can reach that level in this run.

1. Candika: Forecast 90-92. Assessed $18

Had every chance when 2.8L behind Dawn Wall last start. She’s not hopeless here but looks less suited than some of the others going to 2000m.

4. Invincabella: Forecast 91-93. Assessed $18

Was 3L 4th behind Dawn Wall last start and is drawn to get another good run handy to the slow speed.

8. Perilous Love: Forecast 89-94. Assessed $31

Her recent form reads poorly, but she gets to a much more suitable 2000m here and does have a big win over 2030m at this track in March that could put her in the mix. It’s hard to be confident she could suddenly find that form again, but the ability is there.

7. Savvan Forecast 86-90. Assessed $34

Had every chance behind Dawn Wall last start and was beaten 5.5L. She has some scope to improve, but will need to take a big step to even be competitive.

11. Lipstick Lover: Forecast 88-90. Assessed $61

Comes off a last start win, but her figures are still well below the standard needed here.

10 Fallacy: Forecast 87-90. Assessed $101

Beaten 5L behind Dawn Wall last start and that was a new career peak. It’s hard to see her improving enough in this race.

12. Shenandoah: Forecast 85-89. Assessed $101

Her figures are well below the standard needed here.

9. Benfica Princess: Forecast 84-90. Assessed $201

She’s a lightly raced staying filly but 1400m to 2000m 2nd up off just an even rating maiden win looks too tough.

14. Nordic Show: Forecast 85-87. Assessed $201

Is yet to get close to the standard of ratings that will be needed to be competitive here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) The Pinnacle – IF Heavy 9 to Heavy 10: Bet to WIN at $6.50+ Stake 0.7% of your total bank.

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