Launceston Race 6 | Tasmanian Oaks | 2100m 3YOF SW LR | 3:40pm AEDT

The Track

The track is currently a Good 4 with the rail in the true position.

There are some showers around on Saturday, but Sunday should be fine and sunny so we’re likely to stay in that Good 4 range.

History suggests that runners from on-pace to 2-3 lengths off the lead will be advantaged.


WFA Performance Ratings - Winning Benchmark

Based on lead up form, the winner of this race will need to rate somewhere in the 83-85 range (at the weights) to win.


Speed and Tactics

There’s not a huge amount of early speed here. Gwenville (5) led at a slow pace last start but prior to that settled off the speed. Shock Shock (1) had been settling on the lead over 1600m but was restrained last start to run well and with the step up 500m in distance here I wouldn’t think they’ll be too aggressive from the inside draw.

Berkshire Lady (8) and Maheera (10) aren’t fast early, but from they’re draws they will either have to go forward or ease well back. Last Light (11) may also attempt the same.

Even if the race is a little busy early, once the find positions the pace is likely to slow through the middle stages and develop into a sprint home.

Early Pace Rating: Moderate

Late Pace Rating: Above Average

Best Suited: Lead to 3 lengths off the lead.


Race Assessment

2. Pleasuring: Forecast 84-86. Assessed $2.40

She brings the best ratings courtesy of a one length win in the 2100m Strut Stakes at her last start. She showed a nice turn of foot to make a sustained run in that race and while she did find the preferred outside part of the straight, she was pulling away from them through the line. She’s clearly the horse to beat here, but $1.80 in the market looks far too short at the moment. This filly is no star and will be giving them a head start start in a moderately run race on a track that won’t have the outside bias we saw at Hobart. That’s enough reason to be cautious about charging in to a very short price.

3. Casa De Lago: Forecast 82-84. Assessed $6.00

Was only beaten one length by Pleasuring last start after working in the early stages around a turn and perhaps being in slightly inferior ground up the middle of the straight. With the benefit of that first run over this distance and a better draw to get a soft run here somewhere near the lead, she can certainly show improvement and is one that can challenge the favourite.

6. Last Night: Forecast 81-83.5. Assessed $12.00

Comes off a 1600m Maiden win at Ballarat last start with an 82 rating that is competitive here. There doesn’t appear to be any concerns going to 2100m, but tactics will be crucial. A negative ride will make it very hard to win on this track with the way the race is likely to be run.

11. Shock Shock: Forecast 79-82. Assessed $13.00

Ran second to Last Light at Ballarat over 1600m last start, but did start shorter and is drawn to get a soft run here. She’s still lightly raced and a potential improver stepping up to this distance.

7. Maheera: 80-82. Assessed $13.00

Stablemate to the favourite Pleasuring (Weir) and ran a solid 1.5L third to that horse in the Strutt Stakes last start at big odds… after doing some work in the mid-race to go around the outside and take up the running. She looks an honest type, but is yet to win a race after 11 starts.

1. Pateena Arena: 78-80. Assessed $16.00

Started well in the market in the Strutt Stakes lead up ($3.20) but couldn’t match Pleasuring from the back when the pressure went on and just whacked away in the straight, peaking late. Her previous form has to be respected, but it’s impossible to be confident in her prospects off last start.

5. Clean Acheeva: 78-80. Assessed $26.00

Ran a solid fourth beaten 3L behind Pleasuring last start. There’s nothing to suggest she can turn that around here, so she deserves to be a longshot.

8. Berkshire Lady: 78-80. Assessed $34.00

Won a 2000m Pakenham Maiden last start. She’s well exposed with four previous runs at 2000m now and needs to improve at least three lengths to get in the finish of this race.

9. Gone Girl: 77-79. Assessed $41.00

Beaten four lengths by Pleasuring last start as a longshot. Deserves to be a longshot again.

10. Voices: 70-77. Assessed $67.00

Failed last start in the Strutt stakes. She might improve, but nothing about her prior form suggest she can win this.

4. Heavens Delight: 75-79. Assessed $81.00

Failed last start in the Strutt stakes. She need to get back to her best and then improve at least another four lengths to win this.

12. Gwenville: 69-73. Assessed $501.00

Looks totally outclassed in this.

13. Rodessa: 60-70. Assessed $1,000.00

Looks totally outclassed in this.


Betting Strategy

On current markets there is no obvious betting opportunity in this race.

Pleasuring is clearly the horse to beat but there are few factors that make me cautious about taking a price too short and odds-on definitely fits into that category. I’d want at least $2.50 to back her.

Casa De Lago appeals as a genuine danger and may get to a nice price.

Look for good value on the Exchange around the better rated chances as trading takes place in the minutes leading up to jump time.


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