The Track

The track is a big unknown. There is serious rain forecast for Sydney with 80% chance of 5-10mm Friday night / early Saturday morning and then 90% chance of 10-20mm of rain during the meeting, from 12 noon onwards. History at Randwick says that on soft ground with the rail true that the inside is a big no go zone and winners can come from anywhere, potentially getting wider in the straight as the meeting progresses. If it rains during the meeting then we expect a similar pattern to form. If the rain stays away then the more recent history at Randwick says it can play evenly and leaders have every chance to do well.


Speed and Tactics 

Global Glamour will look to hold the lead from Barrier 2 and will have to contend with Lubiton coming across from barrier 5. Pumpkin Pie will be prominent although is very unlikely to apply any pressure that will enhance the pace. The likes of Omei Sword, Spright and Foxplay will be back off the lead, giving them 4-6 lengths passing the 600m.

Early Pace Rating: Average

Late Pace Rating: Average

Best Suited: Neutral for all, especially if the rain comes. Those from the back should have very suitable conditions to make ground.


WFA Performance Ratings – Winning Benchmark

Looking at the lead up form into this race, we expect the winner will need to run to at least a 99 WFA Performance Rating at the weights being carried. The race assessment is made more complicated by Omei Sword who is the best horse in the race, but has had set backs leading into this preparation and resumes here against fit fillies over 1400m on most likely a soft track.


Race Assessment

1. GLOBAL GLAMOUR: FORECAST 99 - 100. ASSESSED $3.60

She’s a very tough on pace runner with consistent ratings that are right up to the winning standard of this race. A soft track is no problem, but if it does rain during the meeting and they are getting wider in the straight, trying to control the race from Barrier 2 is far from ideal. Her consistency and on pace style have to make her the top winning chance, but we can’t see any value in the current market price of $2.60.

2. FOXPLAY: FORECAST 98.5 - 100. ASSESSED $4.00

She was great first up, running home strongly to just lose to Global Glamour in a photo over 1200m at this track. The fitness benefit of that run, the step up to 1400m and a potential track pattern that will be suiting her run on style are all key reasons why she can turn the tables on Global Glamour in this race. Historically they’ve met four times and it’s two wins each with Foxplay holding a decisive win the only time they met on wet ground. The fact she’ll be conceding Global Glamour 4-5 lengths makes it difficult to price her shorter than that filly, but she’s certainly that one that appeals as value.

4. OMEI SWORD: FORECAST 97 - 102. ASSESSED $4.40

A big query runner here. Her two runs in the Spring tag her as the best 3YO Filly in the country, but an injury which brought an end to that campaign and a setback in this preparation which has delayed her first up run, leaves a big question mark over how she’ll go here. That query is enhanced given this is 1400m first up on a likely wet track, with a month since her last official trial. It wouldn’t surprise us if she blew them away here, but equally wouldn’t surprise if she was a big drifter in the market and just ran fairly.

5. SPRIGHT: FORECAST 96.5 - 99. ASSESSED $10

Was very solid first up beaten 1.6L behind Global Glamour in the Light Fingers. It wouldn’t be a major shock if she won, but her exposed form suggests she’s just a shade off the top fillies.

3. LA BELLE DIOSA: FORECAST 94 - 98. ASSESSED $13

Kiwi visitor that put together three straight wins in the Spring, culminating in the G1 1000 Guineas over 1600m. It’s hard to line up her form, but this type of profile has proven competitive in the Sydney Autumn previously, so we expect she can be thereabouts in this race, most likely hitting the line well with a view to 1600m and beyond.

7. SEZANNE: FORECAST 90 - 96. ASSESSED $34

Should have won easily last start but for plenty of bad luck in running. He needs to run to a clear new peak here, but getting deeper into his prep (Weir) and stepping up to 1200m with D Lane riding is a nice scenario to do that. He’s not hopeless.

10. LUBITON: FORECAST 92 - 95 ASSESSED $51

Beaten 3.1L behind Global Glamour last start. 1400m may be more suitable second up, but it’s hard to see her suddenly improving enough to be in the finish.

8. PUMPKIN PIE: FORECAST 90.5 - 94 ASSESSED $67

Won the Country Championships qualifier at Goulburn last week and comes into this hard fit on a seven day back up. The trouble is her best ratings are a number of lengths below this standard.

9. ZENALICIOUS: FORECAST 88 - 93 ASSESSED $151

Beaten eight lengths behind Global Glamour last start at 25/1. Impossible to like.

6. FRENCH FERN: FORECAST 90 - 92 ASSESSED $151

Beaten 4L behind Global Glamour last start at 80/1 and although her CV shows a G2 win as a 2YO, it was an incredibly weak race. Impossible to like.


Betting Strategy

It’s very difficult to formulate a clear betting plan until more is known about the weather on the day, how much rain is falling and how the track is playing. If the track is suiting horses running on down the middle then we are happy to be on Foxplay at a good value price – Stake 1% of your total bank. If in earlier races those horses from back off the pace appear to be struggling to figure in the finish, then we will stay out.


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