R8 Rough Habit Plate 2000m G3 SW

The Track

The track is currently a Soft 7 and while it may improve further during Friday afternoon, there’s a 50% chance of a small shower early Saturday and then 90% chance of some rain during the meeting. If the rain doesn’t arrive it’s likely to race in the Soft 6-7 range, but any showers will almost certainly see it head back towards the Heavy 8 mark (or worse.)

The rail is in the true position. That should see the track race relatively even, however recent meetings in similar conditions suggest that just off the fence will be the better ground around the home turn and in the straight, especially as the meeting progresses.

Speed and Tactics

The speed here looks to be driven primarily by wide drawn runners Veladero (10) and Shocking Luck (12) who both seem likely to press forward. Sidetrip (13) has the potential to also go forward, but up to this distance they could elect to ride conservatively. Closer to the inside the likes of Violate (3), Peter John (6) and Kubis (5) can be prominent.

There’s likely to be some pressure early until they find their positions and the pace will then come down to how O P Bosson rides Shocking Luck. He ran along at a solid speed in the G2 Waikato Guineas back in NZ and was very effective under those conditions. While he could be ridden conservatively and slacken the pace, it seems more likely he’ll roll along in front and set at least an even  / genuine speed. That should make this a decent staying test and give all horses their chance if good enough.

Early Pace Rating: Average / Genuine

Late Pace Rating: Average to moderate

Best Suited: Lead to 4L off the lead.

WFA Performance Ratings – Winning Benchmark

The lead up form and overall profile of key contenders in this race suggests it’s a well and truly below average 3YO Group 3 race. A rating of at least 92 looks likely to be needed to win, but the potential is definitely there for one of these runners to go to a clear new peak and push the mark higher.

Race Assessment

14, Shocking Luck: Forecast 90-94. Assessed $3.50

He presents with a terrific profile for this race. Two runs ago in NZ he ran a close 2nd in the G2 Waikato Guineas in a performance that had a stack of merit. After working wide early, he pressed on to lead the race, ran along at a solid speed and then fought on tenaciously when challenged at the 200m to go down by only 0.5L to a much more fancied runner who had the soft run in behind. He ran especially fast time in that race, 6 lengths faster than the Open Handicap earlier on the day, with a 2.5L faster last 600m. Last start was his first in Australia, where he raced in a Class 3 at Ipswich over 1500m, finishing a narrow 2nd. That seems disappointing, but they walked early in that race and it became a very fast sprint home, which was not at all suitable for a horse that showed his best last start in a sustained speed test over 2000m. The fact he was able to show such a good turn of foot over 1500m in a slowly run race, clocking the best sectionals of any horse at the meeting that day suggests that he’s flying and provides a great platform to step back up to 2000m here. He’s a 3YO NZ stayer that comes to this race in good form, with demonstrated sustained speed / stamina talent and the potential to control the pace of this race to play to those strengths. That’s a very appealing profile in what looks a well below average group class 3YO staying race here in Australia.

12. Order Again: Forecast 89-92.Assessed $8

He was super impressive winning by 7.5L over 1500m on H8 at Eagle Farm last start. He ran fast time in that race and looks suited stepping up in distance. The only query is that he’s likely to be a long way back in the run.

1. Veladero: Forecast 90-92. Assessed $8

Has the overall ratings this preparation to be very competitive and even better figures from last Spring that could win this race comfortably. He’ll race forward and has a top jock on board.

4. Violate: Forecast 88-91. Assessed $11

Ran second to Dreams Aplenty in the Gunsynd last start with a rating that puts him in the competitive zone. Slight query whether he can elevate again stepping up to 2000m.

11. Dazzle Em Sid: Forecast 87-92. Assessed $12

Looks a terrific longshot in this race. He went to a big new career peak when he won by 6.5L over 2237m at Eagle Farm last start in good overall figures that measure up as very competitive in this race. There’s a slight query if he can repeat or whether that was a spike, but even allowing for that in his price there’s still a nice value edge.

2. Careless Choice: Forecast 87-91. Assessed $17

He has his share of talent but three 1400m runs doesn’t look the ideal prep for a 2000m race here and he’ll be a long way back in the field.

5. Let Me Say This: Forecast 87-91. Assessed $18

He was plain last start, but he was dropping back to 1500m off a 39-day break. He won his two prior starts over 1800m and 2000m with ratings that suggest he can be thereabouts here. He’s certainly not the worst longshot.

6. Here He Comes: Forecast 86-90. Assessed $21.

This is his first Australian run from NZ. His form is okay, but doesn’t stand out in any aspect so I’d prefer to see what he does here with a view to future starts.

7. Realing: Forecast 85-89. Assessed $26

Lightly raced type that looks suited up to 2000m but comes off a plain last start run in the Gunsynd.

9. Peter John: Forecast 84-49. Assessed $26

Won by 4L at Gosford last start but this is much harder.

8. Kubis: Forecast 83-89. Assessed $31

He was just fair in the Gunsynd last start and doesn’t give the impression that he’s crying out for the step up to 2000m.

10. Shadow Vision: Forecast 82-86. Assessed $126

Won a Wagga Class 1 last start. This is many lengths harder.

13, Hundred: Forecast 80-86. Assessed $261

Will be suited up to 2000m but his best is a long way below the standard needed here.

15. Side Trip: Forecast 75-80. Assessed $501

Has been getting beaten in Maiden races. Looks totally outclassed here.

16. Bouchard: Forecast 70-80. Assessed $501

Has been getting beaten in Maiden races. Looks totally outclassed here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Shocking Luck at $3.70+. Stake 1.2% of your total bank

 BACK (WIN) Dazzle Em Sid at $14+. Stake 0.3% of your total bank

related articles

Golden Slipper 2017 Race Assessment

"This looks likely to be a solid to fast run Golden Slipper courtesy of Houtzen drawn in Barrier 16). ...

Read More

Race Assessment: Blue Diamond Previews

The 2018 Blue Diamond series starts this Saturday with the Previews for the boys and girls.

Read More

Race Assessment: Black Opal Stakes 2016

"The average winner’s rating over the last 6 years has been 95.2. Defcon is the only runner in this ...

Read More