Doomben Race 6 | Moreton Cup | 1200m Open G2 HCP | 3:20pm

The Track

The track is currently a Good 4 with the rail out +5m. With fine weather forecast we should see it get to a Good 3 for the majority of the meeting.

We’re expecting the track to race well with ground on the fence to 4-5 horses off being suitable. That typically provides a natural advantage for on pace / handy runners around Doomben

Speed and Tactics

This looks likely to be run at a genuine to above average early pace.

Out wide there are three potential pace runners with Siegfried (13)Strawberry Boy (11) and Deploy (10), although there’s a query whether Strawberry Boy has enough pace to be up there over 1200m.

When you add the likes of Attention (4) and Dothraki (6) looking to hold handy positions from closer to the inside, then it’s easy to see plenty of action in the early stages, which will add pressure and early pace.

With that in mind, proven ability in more genuine pace / faster time races is an advantage.

Early Pace Rating: Genuine to above average

Late Pace Rating: Below average to moderate

Best Suited: Lead 4L off lead.

WFA Performance Ratings – Winning Benchmark

This is a very competitive race with a stack of winning chances. The lead up form and overall profile of key contenders suggests that a rating of at least 98 at the weights will be required to be somewhere in the finish, with the actually winning mark potentially getting closer to the 100 level.

Race Assessment

1. Dothraki: Forecast 98-101: Assessed $5.50

It’s been a long time since he’s won, but his ratings are very consistent, they’re right up to the winning mark for this race and he was solid first up at Scone. Just as importantly, he’s proven effective in more solidly run races with a couple of time ratings up near the top of this field. With the blinkers going back on and Bowman riding he presents with very solid credentials in an open race.

10. Deploy: Forecast 97-99.5. Assessed $7.50

He won four from four last preparation and returned with a very good run in the Ortensia at Scone, sprinting home with particularly fast sectionals. His overall figures are up to winning this race, but it’s worth noting doesn’t compare well to some of the other chances here on his ability to run ‘overall time’ which could be a key factor in this race.

11. Attention: Forecast 97.5-101. Assessed $8.50

He was good first up in the Gold Coast Guineas when wide with no cover and only beaten 1.3 in a solid rating race. His overall form is very competitive and he’ll get the right run here, but needs to go to a new level when it comes to more genuinely run races and his overall time ratings.

9. Yesterday's Songs: Forecast 94.5-99.5. Assessed $10

Produced his best run in some time last start up the Flemington straight when 2nd in a good time race and an overall rating that is right in the competitive zone for this race. He has numerous other runs at that level from his past form, so there’s reason to be optimistic that he can repeat here. His get back style is less than ideal, but from barrier 1 he could save some ground in the run and if the breaks go his way he could sneak through and be somewhere in the finish. He looks a good longshot on current market prices.

8. The Virginian: Forecast 95-98.5. Assessed $11

Won nicely first up over 1050m, but there wasn’t a huge amount of substance in the figures and at this stage both his best overall ratings and time figures are below the standard needed to win this. I respect his potential as a lightly raced type, but he looks under the odds on current prices.

5. Federal: Forecast 96-99.5. Assessed $13

He’s got the figures to be competitive and can certainly run the overall time needed to win. The query is that bringing this race to Doomben has seen the distance drop to 1200m, which is less than ideal.

6. Splurge: Forecast 90-98. Assessed $15

Kiwi visitor who started short in the BRC Sprint won by Jungle Edge but failed (beaten 11 lengths.) He’s difficult to assess as he’ll no doubt improve, but it’s impossible to like him.

7. Siegfried: Forecast 93-100. Assessed $16

Ran a career best at the Gold Coast last start behind Religify. A repeat could put him somewhere in the finish, but most horses in this scenario regress towards their more general level of form and the wide draw here adds to that likelihood.

2. Rageese: Forecast 94.5-102. Assessed $21

Ran well in the Ken Russell behind Taking Aim at 100/1 when getting a mile back from the wide draw and finishing off nicely. 1400m looks ideal and she should hold a better position from an inside draw. She’s a longshot capable of running well.

12. Handfast: Forecast 94.5-102. Assessed $26

He has a number of ratings in history that could win this race, but both his first run up and form last prep is below that level and he’s not suited dropping back to 1200m.

3, Snippets Land: Forecast 93-96. Assessed $26

He has a couple of performances in his history that could go close in this, but his more general level of form is a step below.

4. Strawberry Boy: Forecast 90-94. Assessed $41

First up here and likely to need the run plus further to show his best form.

15. Perfect Dare: Forecast 92.5-98, Assessed $61

First up here. He has two performances in his form that could make him competitive, but the vast majority of runs are below the standard needed.

Betting Strategy

This is a very open race with a number of winning chances, but betting around the two that appeal as the best value on current market prices.

 BACK (WIN) Dothraki at >$5.50 – Stake 0.7% of your total bank.

 BACK (WIN) Yesterday’s Songs at > $11 – Stake 0.3% of your total bank. He could get to a terrific price on the Exchange during trading.

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