Flemington Race 9 | Kennedy Plate | 1100m 3YOF G3 SWP | 5.45pm

The Track

The track should race as a good 3 with a sunny 21c forecast.

With the rail out 3m it would not surprise to see the entire field head towards the outside part of the straight. We saw that happen in R9 on Cup day where the field split in two divisions and the first three across the line came down the outside (well clear of the inside division.)

Speed and Tactics

A large field with a few go forward types should ensure a genuine speed here. Blondie (7), Demerara (11), Shudabeen (13) and Camila Lucinda (15) can all be prominent.

The pace should give all horses a chance, however being able to run on in the best part of the track will be a key factor, which creates plenty of uncertainty in this race.

Early Pace Rating: Genuine

Late Pace Rating: Average

Best Suited: Lead to 3 lengths off.

Race Assessment

1. Debonairly: Forecast 91 - 94. Assessed $4.60

She resumes here for a stable (Waterhouse / Bott) that has been flying this carnival, with a top-class rider (K McEvoy) engaged and very competitive ratings from just five career starts so far. Her last trial was six weeks ago, but it was a very impressive effort defeating Global Glamour, with that mare under clearly more pressure over the final stages before going on to win first up in Melbourne. This is a very open race, but Debonairly has the form quality to be very competitive and a profile that suggests she could resume with a new peak.

5. Demerara: Forecast 90 - 95. Assessed $6.50

She rated around 1.5L below her best last start, but Brenton Avdulla is quoted as saying she wasn’t comfortable at Moonee Valley. If she can bounce back then she can certainly win this, but I find it hard to generate any confidence when the James Cummings stable has just three metro winners from 42 runners up to $10 SP since September. That doesn’t make it impossible for Demerara, but I have to risk her.

7. Smart Coupe: Forecast 89.5 - 92.5 Assessed $7.50

Her first up run / rating was just over a length below her career peak and if she could improve towards that mark she’d be right in the finish of this race. The stable had two winners on Cup day, which creates some optimism that Smart Coupe can run very well.

6. I Am Excited: Forecast 88 - 92.5. Assessed $11.00

She’s been freshened since a campaign in Sydney where she ran in the G1 Flight Stakes over 1600m. She was 0.3L third to Formality earlier in that prep so a return to that would be very hard to beat here.  I just have a query whether she can get back to that in this race which seems an afterthought from a Sydney campaign.

2. Blondie: Forecast 89 - 92. Assessed $12.00

Returned to form LS with a 92 rating win at Moonee Valley which is right in the winning zone for this race. Whether she can repeat up the Flemington straight is a slight query when the rest of her form is below that LS, but she deserves respect as one that has at least reached something like the required rating level.

4. Jorda: Forecast 88 - 92. Assessed $13.00

She had no luck at all LS, but her two prior runs were just moderate as well and the Cummings Stable record in Melbourne does nothing to inspire any confidence that she can bounce back.

9. Shudabeen: 89 - 90.5. Assessed $18.00

Down from Sydney with two of three ratings this prep within 1 length of the competitive zone. It’s certainly not out of the question that she could run very well here.

3. Split Lip: Forecast 88 - 90. Assessed $21.00

She rated down last start, but her prior two runs behind Houtzen and Fox Swift rate within 1.5L of the minimum standard needed in this race. If the outside is the place to be, then her barrier could help her find the right part of the track to run a competitive race.

11. Divine Messenger: Forecast 80 - 91 Assessed $23.00

She had plenty of excuses last start and her prior 91 rating can be very competitive here. The concern is that so far that run is a one-off spike and Barrier 1 here is likely to be a disadvantage.

13. Wrapsody: Forecast 10086 - 90 Assessed $26.00

She was a very impressive 6L winner at Echuca LS, but still needs to improve another 3L to get into the winning range for this race. Some improvement looks likely and it’s not impossible that she could measure up, but with plenty of others already proving themselves at this level, it’s hard to be keen on her.

8. Egyptian Bullet: Forecast 86.5 - 89 Assessed $34.00

Her best is a couple of lengths below the standard needed here and she did benefit from a super slow pace up near the lead last start.

16. Shes Popular: Forecast 85 - 89 Assessed $51.00

Her debut win at Kilmore rated 3.5 lengths below the standard needed to win this race and while she could make sharp improvement, I didn’t see enough in her figures to generate any confidence.

15. Fleeting Feeling: Forecast 85 - 89 Assessed $81.00

She’s a query runner first up off a Provincial win back in July. Even allowing for some improvement it’s hard to rate her among the genuine chances.

12. Camila Lucinda: Forecast 80 - 85 Assessed $201.00

Won a below average Maiden last start, which is a long way below this standard.

17. Elusive Melody: Forecast 80 - 85 Assessed $201.00

Ran OK at Bendigo last start but this is much harder and there’s nothing obvious to suggest big improvement.

14. Jungle Queen: Forecast 80 - 83 Assessed $301.00

She had every chance in a much weaker race last start.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Debonairly >$4.60 – Stake 0.9% of your total bank.

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