Caulfield Race 1 | The Inglis Premier | 1200m 2YO Open SW | 12.30pm AEDT

The Track

The track is currently a Good 4 with the rail out +9m for the entire circuit.

With fine weather forecast through Friday and Saturday (27c) we are likely to be racing on a Good 3 surface.

Expect the track to race evenly, with perhaps a slight advantage to those racing handy to the pace.

Speed and Tactics 

With a small field and lack of exposed race form, predicting the speed has some uncertainty. Kinky Boom (7) showed early speed in her trial on Monday and should press forward. Inside her Queen’s Authority (6) showed early speed in her latest jump-out and may also look to take up the running. Messerschmitt (2) has been close up in two starts so far and should also hold a forward position.

If both Kinky Boom and Queen’s Authority press forward then the pace will be respectable enough.

Early Pace Rating: Even

Late Pace Rating: Even

Best Suited: Every runner will get their chance

WFA Performance Ratings – Winning Benchmark

With five of the seven starts on debut here, it’s impossible to predict a winning rating and to assess the race with any real confidence.

Race Assessment

5. Kinky Boom: Assessed $3.20

A very interesting runner here and difficult to assess. There was plenty of hype after she won a 1000m trial at Morphettville on Monday by 8.5L, but closer investigation reveals that her time was identical to the stablemate Pierro Belle who won immediately after (by 2.5L) with a comfortably better L600m (both were not placed under any pressure). You can see a comparison video we did by clicking here. That could mean Kinky Boom is not as good as the trial visually suggests, or it could mean both her and Pierro Belle are very smart 2YO’s. It’s interesting that Jamie Kah rides Aristocratic Miss here after riding Kinky Boom in the trial. It’s unclear whether she had the choice or not. How will Kinky Boom go? I’m not sure. She might bolt in here, but I’m erring on the side of caution. This is 1200m on debut and it’s not clear yet just how much substance was in that trial win. The fact she also has plenty of gear fitted (lugging bit, noseroll and stallion chain) suggests she might have a few tricks in her game, which creates a little query under race conditions.

1. Messerschmitt: Assessed $5.00

Won okay at Ballarat first up after a solid 4th to Qafila in the Debutant back in October. His ratings are competitive and he looks to get an ideal run close to the lead.

6. Aristocratic Miss: Assessed $5.00

Just fair last start at Adelaide, but blinkers on could see her improve to a better debut rating from November that is likely to be hard to beat here.

7. Queens Authority: Assessed $6.00

On debut. A $90k purchase by Dream Ahead who has a great record with his 2YO’s. She’s also a half sister to Kings Authority who was an impressive 2YO debut winner at Flemington in Dec 2016 for Mick Price. I liked the improvement she made from her first jump-out on 15/1 to latest on 29/1, which is a good sign coming to the races. She looks a genuine chance and one to keep an eye on in the market.

3. Grey Khan: Assessed $16.00

On debut. A $240k purchase by Dalakhani out of a Mare that has thrown staying types. Oliver riding is some lead, but everything about his pedigree says he’ll need much further than 1200m to show his best.

6. Melveen: Assessed $26.00

On debut. An $80k purchase by Starspangledbanner, full sister to Hula Star who has a Sale Maiden and Synthetic BM58hcp on her resume.

2. Grand Symphony: Assessed $34.00

On debut. A $70k purchase by Glass Harmonium out of a Dam that hasn’t really produced anything. Likely to need further than 1200m

Betting Strategy

Given the uncertainty in this race it’s impossible to recommend a bet with any confidence. That said, it’s perhaps one of the most interesting races of the day in regards to how Kinky Boom goes after that trial. The betting on her will be fascinating.

If there is a horse I could be convinced to back, it would be something small on Queen’s Authority providing she has strong market support. The amount of improvement she made from one jump-out to the next and a good 2YO pedigree are somewhat likable in a race that may not be particularly strong.

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