R7 Hollindale Stakes 1800m G2 WFA

The Track

The track is currently a Good 4 with a 50% chance of a shower or two on Friday and into early Saturday morning. With 24c forecast and some wind Friday / Saturday, a small shower shouldn’t have any notable impact. We expect that the track will still be in the Good 4 to Good 3 range.

Winds up to 34km/h from the SSE are forecast, which could play a role. It will be blowing into the face of leaders from the 1400m to approximately the 900m mark.


Speed and Tactics

There looks a significant lack of speed in this race. It’s Somewhat (3) is likely to take up the running on his own terms and Tye Angland will be able to dictate the pace. The likes of Single Gaze (6), Col N Lil (2) and even Rudy (7) can be up there, but are highly unlikely to apply undue pressure to the early speed.

Of course, the unexpected can always happen but it’s hard to imagine anything but a slow to moderate pace and fast sprint home.

Early Pace Rating: Slow to moderate

Late Pace Rating: Solid to fast

Best Suited: Lead to 2L off the lead.


WFA Performance Ratings – Winning Benchmark

The lead up form and overall profile of key contenders in this race suggests the winner will need to rate at least 99 to be somewhere in the finish and potentially up to 104 in order to win. It’s impossible to see the race being won in anything less than a 99 rating.


Race Assessment

1. It's Somewhat: Forecast 101.5-104. Assessed $3

He’s won two from two this preparation suggesting he’s back better than ever. He was certainly aided by the bias to win the Doncaster, but the figures on the clock were definitely there to support a new career peak rating. It wasn’t vintage Doncaster, but his 104 from that win is more than good enough to win this race. His previous peaks have come when third up which he is here and they were over 2000m, so we know the step up to 1800m won’t be an issue at all. That’s a very solid profile to be confident that he can maintain his form for this race and when combined with the fact that he looks to control this race in front and has the ability to sprint home fast, he stands out as clearly the horse to beat. I’m not too concerned about the prospect of a head wind down the back as it’s only for approximately 500m of the 1800m distance and the slow to moderate pace will mean he’s not working hard into it.

4. McCreery: Forecast 96.5-101. Assessed $6.50

He was unsuited back to 1400m in the G1 All Aged but ran well and should have finished a little closer than 1.8L behind Tivaci after being crowded late. The step to 1800m and a better surface will no doubt suit him.

11. Single Gaze: Forecast 99-100. Assessed $8.50

Her last two performances have rated 99 and 99.5, which are right in the competitive zone for this and the fact that she’s likely to race forward in a slowly run race also adds a little to her prospects.

5. Cylinder Beach: Forecast 97-99.5. Assessed $9

He’s flying this time in and ran to a new peak winning the Toowoomba Cup last week. He has the turn of foot to sprint home with them here and if close enough at the 600m, he can certainly be competitive.

3. Sense of Occasion: Forecast 96-104. Assessed $9

He went to a massive new peak when third to Winx in the Queen Elizabeth last start and a repeat of that would make him very hard to beat here. My concern is that the rest of his form is well below that level, the QE was a much differently run race to the slow / fast shape we are are likely to get here, he’s dropping back in distance and is likely to be in the second half of the field.

2. Preferment: Forecast 94.5-101. Assessed $18

Query runner first up off a short break. He has a couple of ratings good enough to be in the finish but is yet to get within seven lengths of the winner in any of his last seven starts.

6. Maurus: Forecast 96-101. Assessed $21

Was good first up in a much weaker race. He has some talent, but from back in the field in a slowly run race he will be disadvantaged and probably needs one more run before he can show his best.

8. Articus: Forecast 90-100. Assessed $31

Didn’t do much at his Australian debut last start and is likely to be well back here in a slowly run race.

7. Rudy: Forecast 93-99. Assessed $51

The best of his form over the last 12 months is well below the standard needed to win this.

12. Cool n Lil: Forecast 94-96. Assessed $67

Racing in good form but looks outclassed under WFA conditions.

10. Sakhees Soldier: Forecast 89-96. Assessed $201

Two runs this preparation have been moderate and he looks poorly suited by a slowly run race.


Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Its Somewhat at $3.20+. Stake 1.4% of your total bank


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