Hobart Race 6 | Hobart Guineas Stakes  | 2100m 3YO LR SW | 4.11pm AEDT

The Track

The track is currently a Soft 5 with the Rail out 6 metres from 1150 metres – Winning Post & 3 metres remainder. With warm sunny weather forecast for Saturday (30c) and Sunday (36c), the meeting should be run on a genuine Good 4 surface.

Expect the track to suit on-pace runners, with the best going in the straight being off the fence from 3 horses & wider.

Speed and Tactics

Bosporus (6) looks the leader & with a few others likely to race forward there should be moderate – strong early pace.

Given the smallish field, it shouldn’t take long for runners to find their positions and that should see the pace back off after a few hundred metres & end up in the moderate range. I’d expect Cavalero & Wolfendale to sit midfield & start to put the pressure on from the 800 metre mark.

Early Pace Rating: Moderate

Late Pace Rating: Moderate

Best Suited: All runners to get their chance

WFA Performance Ratings - Winning Benchmark

I’d expect the winner to rate in the 88 – 89 range. This is the first try at this distance for most of the runners so there are a few queries. Historically the Victorian form is a bit stronger than the local Tasmanian form & I’d expect this to be the case again.

Race Assessment

1. Cavalero: Forecast 87 - 89. Assessed $2.40

He was a last start winner of a Saturday Metro race at Flemington over 1700 metres on 1/1. That day he sat midfield before hitting the lead at the 300 metres and then fighting on strongly when challenged to hold on beating Krusty & Bedford. He has gradually improved at all runs this preparation so I’d expect he could step up again in the Guineas. Nikita Beriman knows him well and he looks the horse to beat.

4. Wolfendale: Forecast 86 - 87. Assessed $3.80

Wolfendale fought on strongly to win a BM64 race at Cranbourne over 2025 metres on 12/1. That was on a Heavy 9 track and it’s a small query whether he goes as well on top of the ground. The Weir/Yendall combination is a bonus and he’ll get a great run just behind the pace from an inside barrier but looks a under the odds in the early markets.

2. Overplay: Forecast 84-85. Assessed $9.00

Overplay looks the best of the locals. He was a surprise winner of the Tasmanian Guineas at this track on 12/1 over 1600 metres. A small query with the step up to 2100 metres but Brendon McCoull gets on and he should race up on the speed.

5. Double You Tee: Forecast 83. Assessed $14.00

He was narrowly beaten by Overplay in the Tasmanian Guineas at a huge price. That was a big improvement on his previous form & not sure if he can repeat that, but if he does he is a rough chance.

3. Pennstock: Forecast 82-83. Assessed $16.00

Pennstock had strung together three consecutive wins before failing in the Tasmanian Guineas finishing tenth  beaten 5.1 lengths. Not sure what Craig Newitt will do from the wide barrier. In the past they have gone back when drawn wide and raced more forward from inside gates. After failing last start they might roll the dice & push forward.

6. Bosporus: 81-82. Assessed $26.00

After winning two races he raced up on the pace in the Tasmanian Guineas & faded late finishing sixth beaten 3.5 lengths. He’ll probably lead but might struggle at the 2100 metres.

8. Beautiful Boy: 78-79. Assessed $81.00

Hasn’t been able to win at Class 1 level in last 2 starts at Devonport. Outclassed.

9. The Auditor: 78-79. Assessed $81.00

Came down as a travelling companion for Cavalero and not up to this.

7. Kandahar: 78-79. Assessed $101.00

Broke through for his first career win in a Class 1 last start but this is too tough.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Cavalero – Stake 1.5% of your total bank

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