Doomben Race 8 | George Moore Stakes | 1200m Open G3 Hcp | 5.48pm

The Track

The track is currently a Heavy 8 with 60% chance of 1-5mm showers on Friday and Saturday. It will be warm 28c both days, so if Doomben can dodge the showers we should get to a Soft 7 at worst. If some showers do hit the track, it’s likely to stay in the Heavy 8 – Heavy 9 range.

Expect the track to race evenly, with lanes 1-4 in the straight suitable ground. That will give a slight advantage to those that can settle in the first four in running.


Speed and Tactics

There looks to be plenty of early pressure in this race. Upstart Pride (10) will press forward and look to lead with Monsieur Gustave (11) on his outside following across. That’s a reversal of what we saw last start when these two horses met at Ipswich.

Snoopy (7) is the additional pressure in the race. He has early speed and from Barrier 7 he doesn’t look to have much option but to be positive early.

In the past, a wide draw and positive ride for Upstart Pride has result in a solid to fast race pace, so we can expect the same here. The final sections are likely to be slow, which will give those well back in the field every chance to make ground.

Early Pace Rating: Solid to fast

Late Pace Rating: Moderate to slow

Best Suited: 1.5L to 5 lengths of the lead


WFA Performance Ratings - Winning Benchmark

Based on the lead up form of contenders, a rating in the 96-98 range at the weights will be required to win this race.


Race Assessment

5. Calanda: Forecast 95 - 99. Assessed $4.20

His two runs this prep are much better than they appear. He was poorly ridden first up and then on the wrong side of the Flemington straight second up, but still produced a competitive rating for this race. He looks capable of peaking here third up with previous strong ratings on soft ground and the prospect of being ideally suited by a strong speed up front. I expect him to run very well here, but I can’t find him as short as the $3.00 currently on offer in betting markets.

2. Monsieur Gustave: Forecast 94 - 100. Assessed $5.00

He was dominant at Ipswich over 1200m last start, winning by 3 lengths on Soft 7 ground with a rating of 100 (adjusted to today’s weight.) If he could repeat that then he would almost certainly win this race. The concern is that he found the front easily last start and travelled at a genuine, but comfortable early speed. He’s very unlikely to find the lead easily in this race will face a much faster pace / pressure up front. With that last start rating being a spike on the rest of this form, I have to question if he will repeat that, or is more likely to regress a little. He might still run to a level good enough to win this, but I certainly have to allow for the change in conditions of this race in his price.

10. Snoopy: Forecast 94 - 98. Assessed $6.00

He’s first up for new trainer Chris Munce here (ex-Hawkes) and looks the clear value in the race. He’s won three from five first up in the past and his last two first-up ratings are very competitive in this race. More so, his career peak of 100 (at today’s weight) was achieved on a Soft 7 track over 1200m and he has another 98 rating on soft ground to support that. There’s no doubt that he has a number of ratings in the past that can win this race. There’s naturally some uncertainty about how he’ll go first up this time, but I have to think Chris Munce will  have set him to win and most importantly, Snoopy looks to get an ideal run here with the ability to cross and then take a trail behind the solid speed. There’s plenty to like about him at a good price in the market.

3. Big Money: Forecast 95 - 96. Assessed $14.00

Ran a competitive rating first up on Soft ground at Randwick and has trialled since. He’ll be well suited by the solid early speed and can finish off strongly.

14. Brooklyn Storm: Forecast 94 - 96. Assessed $15.00

He has a couple of spike ratings in his career that could possibly win this, but the bulk of his form including three runs this preparation are competitive, but a length or two short of the likely winning standard.

1. Beauty Flame: 93 - 97. Assessed $16.00

Big query runner first up from HK off a 306-day spell. His best form could certainly win this, but it has come over 1400-1600m and I have to think he’ll need the run here for fitness.

6. Siegfried: Forecast 93 - 96. Assessed $18.00

He was given no hope when caught wide in the G3 Carbine Club at Flemington last start. His ratings profile suggests he can be very competitive, but he has another very difficult barrier draw to overcome.

12. Hi Im Back: Forecast 92 - 96. Assessed $18.00

He ran a big spike rating of 101 at this track and distance two starts ago, but he was plain last start and the best of his other form is in the 94-96 range. While it’s not impossible to could reproduce that spike, history shows that it’s unlikely.

11. Casual Choice: Forecast 92.5 - 95. Assessed $26.00

First up here and one that will be well suited by a strong speed up front. While most of his form is below the winning level of this race, he does have a few ratings in the past that measure up, so it wouldn’t surprise if he ran well at big odds.

4. Most Important: Forecast 92 - 97. Assessed $31.00

Three runs since August have all been very plain and well below his peak figures from this time last year. If he suddenly found that form again he could win this race, but there’s no way I could predict that with any confidence.

7. Upstart Pride: Forecast 91 - 95. Assessed $31.00

He has some peak ratings that could put him in the finish of this race, but he has also shown a clear pattern in the past that when he has to work early from a wide draw he has run poorly. It’s hard to see him running along at a strong pace and holding off all the chasers in this.


Betting Strategy

 BACK – Snoopy to WIN at >$6.00 – Stake 0.7% of your total bank


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