Flemington Race 5 | Coolmore Stud Stakes | 1200m G1 3YO Open SW | 2.25pm

The Track

There have been a few showers around Melbourne and on Friday morning the track is a Good 4. The draining qualities of Flemington should see us get very close to a Good 3 by race time (assuming no further showers.)

Recent history under similar conditions suggest they’ll come down the middle of the track in the straight races.

Speed and Tactics

A large field and good natural pace among a few of these should make this a genuinely run 1200m race, if not a little faster. Houtzen (5) has consistently run along at a solid speed in her career, while Invincible Star (7) set a good pace in front at Caulfield at her last start. Eptimum (4) and Malahat (8) also won’t be far away.

Early Pace Rating: Genuine to solid

Late Pace Rating: Below average to moderate

Best Suited: Lead to 4 lengths off.

WFA Performance Ratings - Winning Benchmark

This is a below average year as far as lead-up form into the Coolmore is concerned. A rating of 98-100 (at the weights) looks good enough to figure in the finish. By comparison, last year’s hot crop of 3YO’s came into the race with an expected winning range of 102-103 and Flying Artie ended up running to 104 at the weights.

Race Assessment

19. Invincible Star: Forecast 98 - 100. Assessed $6.50

She was outstanding last start at Caulfield, running very impressive figures on the clock when she bolted in by 4L. That win was a +1.5L new peak on her high rating debut win over 1000m at this track on 1st November last year… an early indicator of her top-class potential. She brings the best last start rating in this field, has proven herself effective up the Flemington straight and is drawn perfectly in Barrier 7 to find the likely best part of the track. She looks the one to beat in a very competitive race.

5. Viridine: Forecast 97 - 99. Assessed $8.00

He’s an emerging top-class prospect with a sense of timing about him for this race. He needs to improve 0.5L to 1L to get into the winning zone, but that looks more than achievable. I feel one key factor is that he’s raced keenly off slow to moderate pace in his races so far and could be one that really appreciates a more genuinely run race here, helping to take him to a new peak. Barrier 1 certainly isn’t ideal, but that’s the only knock on this horse.

10. Eptimum: Forecast 96 - 98.5 Assessed $9.00

He emerged as a contender for this race with a dominant 3L win last Saturday at Moonee Valley with a rating this is very competitive here. If there is a query it’s that he’s got away with soft runs up on the lead this preparation and this race will be another level of high pressure he’s yet to experience. Talent and his upward spiral of improvement are hard to ignore though.

16. Catchy: Forecast 96 - 99. Assessed $11.00

She’s freshened up for this after a last start run in the 1600m Thousand Guineas where a solidly run mile was perhaps a touch too far. She certainly has the talent to win this race, it’s just a question of whether she can produce it back sharply in distance. History has shown it’s tough to do in this race.

15. Houtzen: Forecast 95 - 98. Assessed $12.00

Her best this preparation was two starts ago at Moonee Valley where she led and won. She’ll need to find another length on that performance to get in the finish here.

1. Trapeze Artist: Forecast 95 - 97 Assessed $15.00

He improved more than 3L on his career peak to win the Golden Rose, but that was an incredibly fast run 1400m. A repeat of that could win this, but he’s been far less effective over 1200m before and while the pace here will be good, it won’t be anywhere near the record levels of the Golden Rose. Those two factors are a concern.

17. Tulip: Forecast 95 - 96. Assessed $15.00

Ran a career peak in The Everest, but still needs to find another 1.5 lengths to get in the finish here.

2. Kementari: Forecast 95-99. Assessed $17.00

His best is certainly competitive here, but he’s coming back from the 1600m of the Caulfield Guineas in a race that is clearly an afterthought. That has to be a query, but his talent certainly deserves some respect.

8. Merchant Navy: 94-97. Assessed $18.00

Many were tipping him to be a star of the Spring before he went to Sydney and didn’t cope with the pressure of the Golden Rose. He’s been well and truly freshened up for this and a genuine pace up front in this could see him reach a new competitive peak.

6. Jukebox: Forecast 94 - 97. Assessed $23.00

Needs at least a +1.5L new career peak to be in the finish of this race and around +2.6L on what he did last start.

4. Summer Passage: Forecast 92 - 97 Assessed $34.00

His career peaks have come over 1400m and could put him thereabouts here, but he’s proven less effective over 1200m.

7. Goodfella: Forecast 95 - 96 Assessed $34.00

Needs to find at least +2L on his last start win at Randwick and appears more likely to have a chance of doing that if he was stepping up to 1400m.

13. Andaz: Forecast 93.5 - 95 Assessed $41.00

Was a nice effort behind Goodfella last start and is certainly a horse on the way up. On exposed form he’s hard to like, but there’s plenty of improvement to come, so it wouldn’t surprise if he ran better than his market price suggests.

18. Formality: Forecast 93 - 95 Assessed $41.00

Racing well, but has been well suited in slowly run races and needs to find at least two lengths on her recent runs, in a race with more early pressure.

20. Limestone: Forecast 91 - 95 Assessed $61.00

Showed the talent as a 2YO to measure up to a race like this, but hasn’t looked the same horse this preparation.

9. Dracarys: Forecast 92 - 95 Assessed $61.00

Needs to find a clear new career peak and the outside barrier doesn’t help.

12. Malahat: Forecast 90 - 94 Assessed $151.00

Looks well and truly outclass on what we’ve seen so far.

11. Lone Eagle: Forecast 90 - 93 Assessed $251.00

Looks well and truly outclass on what we’ve seen so far.

3. The Mission: Forecast 86 - 93 Assessed $501.00

Racing in poor form this preparation and looks to need it wet.

14. Wassergeist: Forecast 88 - 90 Assessed $501.00

Looks well and truly outclass on what we’ve seen so far.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Invincible Star at >$6.50 – Stake 0.6% of your total bank.

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