Caulfield Race 6  | Caulfield Guineas Prelude | 1400m 3yo G3 SWP| 3.30pm

The Track

The track is currently a Good 3 (rail true), with 17c forecast on Sunday. There is a small chance of a shower or two across Saturday / Sunday but it shouldn’t have any impact on the track.

We expect the track to race well, with no obvious pattern.

Speed and Tactics 

Perast (7) has set a solid to fast pace in each of his last two starts, including near record tempo in the Golden Rose last Saturday with The Mission. Summer Passage (5) looks the other natural pace runner, but is unlikely to fight Perast if his jockey D Lane is intent on leading.

Early Pace Rating: Between Genuine and Solid

Late Pace Rating: Between moderate and below average

Best Suited: Lead to 4L off lead.

WFA Performance Ratings - Winning Benchmark

There’s plenty of quality in this race with exposed form suggesting that a rating figure of no less than 96.5 at the weights will be needed to be somewhere in the finish. The winning mark could easily end up in the 97.5 to 99 range.

Race Assessment

3. Royal Symphony: Forecast 97 - 99. Assessed $3.00

He’s a very promising horse, but $2.00 in current markets is far too short. As visually impressive as his first up win was, he was flattered by a very fast / very slow race shape which allowed him to get home over the top of some horses that were walking to the line. The other angle here is that all of his form is at Flemington, where he as a very long straight to balance up and run home. We’re yet to see if he’s equally adept at Caulfield and he will be giving the leaders at least 5-7 lengths head start. These factors don’t subtract from his talent, but they do present betting risk, so I have to work around him.

6. Kementari: Forecast 96.5 - 98.5. Assessed $3.60

He looks a big chance of upsetting the favourite Royal Symphony. His 4L win at Randwick over 1400m back in May had the marks of a horse with serious Group class talent. First up this prep he was beaten 3.2L behind Menari in the Run To The Rose, but that was a seriously strong rating race and he did get well back in the run, clocking the 2nd best L800m of the race. Benchmarking his individual figures highlights the run as more than satisfactory and right up to a level than can challenge Royal Symphony on his last start performance. He also brings the potential to improve towards that 1400m rating back in May and most importantly should be a lot closer than Royal Symphony in the run. There’s plenty to like about Kementari in this race, especially at the current market price.

7. Perast: Forecast 92 - 96.5 Assessed $14.00

He went way too fast in the Golden Rose last start, but his run prior over 1200m in the Golden Rose when beaten just 3L behind Menari was very fast and measures up okay in this race. There’s a natural query if he can back up from such a hard run last week and be effective over 1400m, but he’s at least been to a level that can be competitive here and looks a longshot with some chance.

8.Eclair SUnshine: Forecast 92 - 96.5. Assessed $14.00

Was very good last start when just run down by Royal Symphony. He was 60/1 that day which carries some weight, but a repeat performance will see him very competitive again.

9. Esperance: Forecast 92 - 96. Assessed $16.00

He had some excuses in the Danehill when racing keen back closer to the inside. He has a stack of talent, but this Spring Carnival may have come too soon for him. His tendency to race keenly is also a concern going to 1400m.

1. Invader: Forecast 92 - 96 Assessed $17.00

He wasn’t a factor last start behind Menari in The Run To The Rose, but may not have appreciated what was a very firm track that day. His prior run behind deploy with some scope to improve towards his peak 2YO form suggests he’s not hopeless here, especially stepping up to a more suitable 1400m. If Bowman can get a soft run from barrier 1 and the luck at the right time, he could run very well.

10. Levendi: Forecast 91 - 94. Assessed $23.00

Two wins from two starts highlight him as a promising horse, but he’s in the deep-end here and even allowing for some improvement, I can’t get him any shorter than the assessed price.

2. Summer Passage: Forecast 91 - 94 Assessed $26.00

Was just fair first up in the Danehill. His Sires Produce run behind Invader says he has the talent to be competitive, but he needs to lift significantly on his first up run.

5. Al Passem: 91 - 93.5 Assessed $26.00

Comes off a solid 2.2L 5th behind Catchy last start and could improve stepping up to 1400m. Needs a big new peak though to get in the winning zone.

4. Muraahib: Forecast 88 - 91 Assessed $51.00

His peak is well below this standard, he was poor behind Royal Symphony last start and is likely to settle back in the field here.

13. Mactier: Forecast 81 - 87 Assessed $251.00

Looks massively outclassed here.

Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Kementari at >$3.50 – Stake 1.5% of your total bank

 BACK (WIN) Perast at >$20.00 – Stake 0.3% of your total bank

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