Caulfield Race 2 | Blue Diamond Preview C&G | 2YO SWP LR | 11.30pm AEDT

The Track

The track is currently a Good 3 with the rail +6 metres Entire Circuit. With the forecast for a mostly sunny Saturday (33c), the meeting should be run on a genuine Good 3 surface.

Expect there to be a slight advantage to on-pace runners and the best going in the straight from 1 – 4 Horses wide.

Speed and Tactics

Invincible Lad led them up in the Breeders’ Plate and that same early speed will be enough to lead all of the exposed runners here. Long Leaf should be handy and expect Bold Type to also have early speed.

Ollivander was midfield on debut and is drawn out here, so unlikely to be any closer. Run Naan has got back and hit the line in both starts to date.

Early Pace Rating: Moderate

Late Pace Rating: Moderate

Best Suited: Lead to 3 lengths off the lead.

WFA Performance Ratings - Winning Benchmark

The C&G division has rated below the Fillies division in four of the past five years, with the average winning WPR figure in that time being 94.3 (vs 98.1 fillies).

This looks a potentially stronger renewal compared to recent years, given Run Naan (97.5), Long Leaf and Ollivander (both 96) have run to that level already. At the weights, Ollivander’s debut win equates to an 88.6 here and Run Naan’s last start performance at the weights is 88.5.

Given the established credentials of that trio, it’s conceivable to think a figure of around 90 (at the weights) could be needed to win this race.

Race Assessment

1. Run Naan: Forecast 87 - 90. Assessed $3.30

Improved off the debut Bendigo win to claim a G3 at Flemington on the final day of the carnival. Overall speed figures were sound enough and last 200m rating was second to only Tosen Stardom among all winners on the day. That run ranks in the top 10 2yo performances in Australia so far this season. Race shape is the query for him getting back in the field.

2. Long Leaf: Forecast 86 - 88. Assessed $4.00

Beat the talented La Pomme De Pin on debut then came to Melbourne and improved WPR figure to claim the Listed Merson Cooper. That rating makes him very competitive here and looks like getting a nice run on the speed.

3. Ollivander: Forecast 85 - 88. Assessed $4.50

Overall speed rating ranked eighth (of nine) on the day, while his individual 600m split ranked sixth. Runner-up Anthemoessa had been beaten 5.5L on debut and subsequently was 7.5L away in the Magic Millions. That said, the rating from that win stacks up strongly for this if he can repeat.

5. Invincible Lad: Forecast 76-88. Assessed $8.50

Started $9 in the high rating Breeders’ Plate. Led them up there and weakened to be beaten 5.6L. Obviously much better than that and astute stable continue down the feature race road resuming. Probable sharp improver. Hit the line solidly enough in a December trial behind Lilith and the map looks ideal for him here.

6. Bold Type: Forecast 76-86. Assessed $21.00

$8 into $6 on debut in strong race (third was MM winner Sunlight) but failed to fire a shot, beating just one runner home and finishing 10L adrift of the winner Nomothaj. No public trials since. Jumped awkwardly that day and obviously much better than that.

4. Native Soldier: 79-81. Assessed $51.00

Beaten just under 4L by Ollivander at Caulfield, then found a lesser race at Geelong and broke through. Figures to date are well short of the required benchmark.

7. Fandral: Forecast 76 - 86. Assessed $51.00

No public trials. Market the only guide.

8. Robe De Fete: Forecast 76 - 86. Assessed $51.00

Only seen in public when third to Run Naan in a barrier trial last October. Then put away.

Betting Strategy

None Recommended. Run Naan the top pick but could be susceptible back in the field.

Caulfield Race 3 | Blue Diamond Preview F | 2YO F SWP G3 | 12.00pm AEDT

The Track

The track is currently a Good 3 with the rail +6 metres Entire Circuit. With the forecast for a mostly sunny Saturday (33c), the meeting should be run on a genuine Good 3 surface.

Expect there to be a slight advantage to on-pace runners & the best going in the straight from 1 – 4 Horses wide.

Speed and Tactics

Of the three to race, Crossing The Abbey and Lady Horseowner have showed early speed, whereas Oohood was slowly away and got back.

With so many first starters, presumably most of which have shown a bit at home to be having a crack at a Group 3 on debut, would surprise if there wasn’t some good speed on display early here.

Early Pace Rating: Moderate to Good

Late Pace Rating: Moderate

Best Suited: On speed to 4L off.

WFA Performance Ratings - Winning Benchmark

As stated in the preview for the C&G division, the Fillies have rated mostly higher than the boys in the past five years, with the winning figures ranging from 94.7 in 2014 (Eloping) to 100.3 in 2013 (Miracles Of Life). The average winning mark over that time has been 98.1.

Of the small sample in this field to have raced, none of them have come close to that mark yet, with Oohood returning a 95.7, which equates to 86.6 at the weights. Interestingly, of the five previous winners, three of them had run to a WPR figure of 100 or better before arriving at this race.

Given the historical evidence and lack of real substance in the raced division’s numbers, it’s highly possible one or more of the first starters measure up to a higher figure than what the others have proven capable of so far.

Race Assessment

10. Pure Elation: Forecast 86 - 90. Assessed $3.70

First start. Trialled twice in Sydney last September/October. From a top juvenile stable that doesn’t bring too many 2yos to Melbourne but tend to get it right when they do. From only four runners aimed at the Diamond series, they boast a win (Pride Of Dubai in 2015) and second (Pariah last year) in the big one.

4. Oohood: Forecast 86.5 - 89. Assessed $4.20

Slow out on debut and gave away a big start. Loomed to win, but the winner had enjoyed a nice run on the speed. Returned an adjusted WPR rating of 86.6 there, which is the peak number from those that have raced. Where to in the run today from Gate 8? Barrier blanket and ear muffs (pre-race) go on to help her.

5. Downloads: Forecast 83 - 88. Assessed $10.00

First starter/No trials. Cost $850K. Stable has super record with juveniles, so has obviously shown up at home with them coming straight to a Group 3 on debut.

3. Lady Horseowner: Forecast 85-87. Assessed $11.00

Sat on the speed and fought on for narrow Moonee Valley win in early December in an adjusted 86 WPR figure. Overall time was nothing to sing about but last 200m rating compared well enough with others on the night.

2. Crossing The Abbey: Forecast 84-86. Assessed $13.00

Tidy effort on debut at Flemington in October when finishing alongside subsequent Magic Millions winner Sunlight. Returned on January 1 and was a narrow Flemington winner, returning a 85.5 WPR rating ‘at the weights’ here.

9. Lake District Girl: 83-87. Assessed $13.00

First start. Trialled in October last year when a narrow second to stablemate Faroe (in quicker time than the Run Naan heat on same day). Faroe was then found to be lame after failing on debut at MV on Cox Plate day.

8. Inindeed: Forecast 82 - 86. Assessed $17.00

First starter/No trials. Booking of top jock for a stable that showed up in the spring. Early market not sure.

11. Tatiara: Forecast 82 - 87. Assessed $17.00

First start/No trials. Cost $580k. Has had some market support at longer odds.

6. Du Well: Forecast 80 - 84. Assessed $51.00

First starter/No trials. No market support early doors.

7. Hard To Come By: Forecast 79 - 83. Assessed $67.00

First starter/No trials. No confidence in early betting.

Betting Strategy

Too much guesswork and reliance on market intelligence to be confidently playing here, given only two of the six first starters have officially been seen in trials.

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